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Beta is a measurement of volatility. Wikipedia has a decent explanation of beta. http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Beta_%28finance%29 Dividends usually reduce beta. Dividend stocks tend to be picked up by buy and hold as opposed to traders/day-traders.

[ucodegen]

If that was him in the cabin, he did not use ‘all of is training’. It does not take too long to get out of Big Bear.. and the amount of time it takes to locate/ID the vehicle followed by alerting and closing roads would give him enough to get out. That was one heck of a slog going over the mountains.. since 7 Oaks area is technically not Big Bear (its half way between Big Bear and Gorgonio).

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[quote=zk]Authorities are now speculating that he might’ve fled to Mexico. What better way to get there unnoticed than in a Cessna? The DEA and ICE monitor northbound flights very closely. I’m not sure how closely they monitor southbound ones, but a clever operator could make it work.[/quote]They monitor both directions very tightly.. the return trip is for the money (which they need to ‘repatriate’).

I was surprised at how fast the police were able to put together a task force to hit a hotel on speculation of him being there in Mexico… but for the rest of us, we are screwed…

[quote=bearishgurl]WOW, uco, I haven’t been on that road in a few years! How did they build that? It’s absolutely amazing ….[/quote]It was kind of impressive.. they cantilevered the concrete casting. I have pictures of it being built as well as other pictures of it from other angles.. and at much better resolution if anyone is curious.

[quote=bearishgurl]I disagree. CA isn’t the “wild west.” The wheel was invented long ago.

The sole reason for filing the writ petition was to remand the case back to an administrative hearing with instructions or obtain a right to sue.[/quote]I don’t disagree with the “wild west” being long past.. unfortunately that is Dorner’s mentality..
[quote=bearishgurl]His lawyer would have fully explained all this to him. He wouldn’t have had to keep that lawyer for the trial.[/quote]Hopefully his lawyer did.. but from what I read, it wasn’t a “standard court”. One of Dorner’s accusations was that his attorney/police representative did not properly represent him.

[quote=spdrun]Speaking theoretically, what’s the lowest/slowest a Cessna can fly? Deposit the package off a touristy beach in the early morning hours and have him swim to shore and walk out of the ocean like any number of other foreign tourists.[/quote]
Depends upon the “Cessna”. I am assuming you are using “Cessna” to refer to any small aircraft. There is competition in Alaska on the ‘tundra planes’, I think “Cubs”.. on the shortest takeoff and landings. There is one of these planes flying out of Montgomery field.. Its yellow.

http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=ilb55F-GGQg

NOTE: There is now a Dorner “Situation” over in “Big Bear”. Supposedly broke into a house, tied the occupants up, stole their truck. And seems to be holed up in a house in the canyon between Big Bear and Gorgonio. Location approx 34.186601,-116.915016. http://maps.google.com/maps?q=34.186601,-116.915016&ll=34.186654,-116.915023&spn=0.001784,0.002443&num=1&t=h&z=19

Looks like he walked over the ridge between Bear Mtn and Snowsummit.. probably Sugarloaf Truck Trail, Radford Camp Rd, 2N10, Moonridge Truck Trail.

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[quote=bearishgurl][quote=ucodegen]…To get to Arizona, you can also go through Nevada then to Arizona..[/quote]

This is US 93, a mostly two-laner along the rim of the Hoover Dam, 35 mi SE of Las Vegas. A slow, comm’l truck-filled border crossing, this area is highly patrolled at ALL times. It would be only too easy to spot his vehicle there …[/quote]BTW, I forgot to mention.. it is no longer a two laner, and it no longer goes across the dam. The dam is now closed to cross traffic.
[img_assist|nid=17140|title=Hover Dam from new Bypass Bridge|desc=|link=popup|align=center|width=199|height=133]

[quote zk]So, bring your truck up there, the vehicle everybody is looking for. Break the axle, on purpose, by hitting a rock or something. (Who breaks an axle? That’s gotta be tough to do. He probably wouldn’t be driving like a maniac up there. It would only draw attention to himself. You gotta be stealthy in his situation.) You break the axle on purpose so that when they find your truck, they think you are in the immediate area.[/quote]I did a bit of research on the rear axles for Nissan Titan. It turns out that they do have a problem known by offroaders. The rear spider gear assembly is weak. This is only a problem when towing w/ larger tires or running really large off-road tires. I suspect the axle is not broken in his case.. it is the media having to ‘add something’ to be able to ‘repost’ something that is essentially the same as if it was updated news.. btw- how can you move around w/ 30 weapons??.. it is the ammo that you want a large quantity of, and a few very good weapons. About the spider gear assembly, you can only break it if you have good traction. In wet, snowy conditions.. you don’t have good traction.
[quote zk]So I was thinking, there’s an airport in Big Bear. Getting in and out of Big Bear is immensely faster and easier if you can fly. [/quote]But there may be an issue w/ having to file a flight plan. I suspect that he may have headed out through Lucerne Valley (to Victorville , Barstow, Mojave, and then back to LA). It is possible to skip Victorville completely on 247. The shorter path near Pearblossom is mostly 2 lane roads, not so commonly travelled and easier to control.
[quote=bearishgurl]Since one of Dorner’s victims was the daughter of the attorney who, by his statement, “botched” his disciplinary hearing against the LAPD, I’m just wondering why he didn’t instead file a claim against the City and then sue for damages (and his job back) when the judge hearing his mandamus petition rubber-stamped the hearing officer’s decision (as they often do, to get the case off their docket). In doing so, the judge hearing his petition left it wide open for Dorner to take legal action against the City and LAPD.[/quote]True.. but look at it from his side. He is military trained, not legal. He is unfamiliar with the process of using the courts and after the last ‘judge’ issue.. he probably feels that he can not get justice through the courts. He probably thinks that after this last one, there is no more recourse through the courts. He is probably taking the only course of action that he feels that he can.

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[quote=bearishgurl][quote=ucodegen]…To get to Arizona, you can also go through Nevada then to Arizona..[/quote]

This is US 93, a mostly two-laner along the rim of the Hoover Dam, 35 mi SE of Las Vegas. A slow, comm’l truck-filled border crossing, this area is highly patrolled at ALL times. It would be only too easy to spot his vehicle there …[/quote]As it would be for I-5 by Pendleton, and parts of I-15.

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[quote=spdrun]

Why didn’t he head east towards Arizona??

The Colorado River has a limited number of bridges crossing it on the CA/AZ border (about 10, maybe). It would be easy to put CHP armed with submachine guns on each crossing.[/quote]They can’t cover every location. I also presume he would not tell them that he is going that way before he does. He didn’t tell them that he was heading south on I5 to San Diego. There is a part of I5 that has no turnoffs. He took I15 north.. and there are parts of I15 that have no turnoffs for several miles. To get to Arizona, you can also go through Nevada then to Arizona..

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[quote=desmond]Here’s what I think: After the shootouts in Corona and Riverside he knew he could not drive on the highways. He headed up toward the mountains.[/quote]Why didn’t he head east towards Arizona?? Only FBI operates across state boundaries.. from there make a run to Mexico across land? That tells me that Mexico was not his intended destination.. it was a diversion.
[quote=desmond]
I doubt he had a car planted up there because: You don’t put a car in the mountains up a one-way road that does get use and would be seen by the forest service or passers by. The roads are very steep and icy up there, I live at the same elevation travel those roads all the time with my quad, a regular car has no chance.[/quote]I ski and hike that area. A lot of it is paved, not dirt. The tracks going to where the vehicle was burned are straight.. no coming off sideways from the vehicle. Front tire was straight. Didn’t look like a spinout. It also looked like it was just off of a more traveled and wider road. It is also not a one-way road.. though it was narrow. Hikers regularly park on the side of some of the roads. It just depends upon which mountain you are trying to bag. BTW, I think they mentioned that the vehicle was between Bear Mountain and Snow Summit ski resorts, closer to Bear Mountain.

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[quote=desmond]Why would you burn the truck? It only calls attention to it. I really think now he is going by the seat of his pants, I looked at the tracks of his truck from the tv and because it is not a 4×4 it looks like he got stuck. He probably hiked up the hill away from homes and will have to bivouac for the night. A freezing cold storm is on that mountain now, he won’t go far, to steep, high altitude, and he does not look in that good of shape. If I lived up there I would be awake all night and ready to defend myself.[/quote]
I don’t know about that. Did you look at it before it was attached to the tow truck.. or after? I saw only one image of it before the tow truck arrived and the vehicle was across the road, and would have been quite easy to drive it out from there. It almost looked like it was placed intentionally, and near an intersection. The area is mostly plowed, slushy but plowed. The problem is that his vehicle had been made.. it was no longer safe to use. Now the police are taking quite a bit of time to check the area. Typical. He did write that the way the police handle these things is predictable.

So the scenarios could be..

1) Got stuck.. decided to burn truck(which does not make that much sense because it calls attention to that area -> mountain + smoke means fast response). Police and Fire come to investigate, but he hadn’t set up a blind to take some rifle shots from before relocating? Doesn’t make sense in this context. The fire created a police target rich environment. It is also unusual considering that it is so cold up there right now, and will be colder shortly.

2) Placed vehicle across road far enough away from center of town so activity will not be seen. Has another car already there (having one or more ‘backup’ vehicles would be useful if one is trying to attempt what he intends). Stealing a car would not be useful because the vehicle gets ID’d when the theft is reported. His truck is no longer useful, so burns it to attract attention while heading out in another direction. It also causes the Police to now think he is on foot. They are busy focusing on the mountain.. Remember that he did this shortly after he was being followed by police. BTW Corona is south of Big Bear.. along 15 North. I suspect that he was originally trying to mislead police to thinking he was going to Mexico. Unfortunately for this, he got made going through Corona. Now he has to make them think he is somewhere else that would take a while to ‘search’.

I find the SD Boat ‘kidnap’ attempt interesting. Why didn’t he order the owner to start it? He could also order the owner to maneuver/drive the boat as well. Starting a boat is not that hard. Particularly when it is on the end pier. Dropping of the ID in SD is also interesting (though it would not be of much use anymore anyway). Remember, this guy is military trained, probably in asymmetrical warfare. Has handled being under fire (more so than most police). Not typical police nor typical criminal.

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[quote=Huckleberry]Hopefully for them, considering who they are dealing with, they have semi-auto assault rifles, shotguns and handguns. Personally I would want all three against a guy of this magnitude…[/quote]Ironically, this guy wanted to ban AR-15s etc.. while reserving the right to Barret-50 and SA-7s for himself (as if he really has a surface to air missile or two..).

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The angle of the burnt out truck is unusual.. it is cross-road. Almost like he wants it to be found. Winter in Big Bear is not a good time to be out in the open. I wonder if the P-U is a diversion? He might be back towards LA.. They need to check for rental vehicles, and who rented them.

From a tactical point, it would be effective for him to have police looking for a person in a large mountainous area while being back down in town. He may have also put on skin lightener or ‘light makeup’.. since they are looking for a large black man. If he was going to ‘wait them out’ in the mountains, he might have burned the truck and then start shooting the police when they get to the truck before disappearing into the mountains. Instead he was no where to be found.

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[quote=spdrun]Uh, if someone is bent on doing something illegal, do you think they’ll be so worried about buying a gun (or fire-axe, or iron pipe) legally? Come on.[/quote]
True.. which is why I think the whole gun-control argument is stupid. If these people are law abiding, it is harder to get the weapons because they do not have the contacts into that ‘side’ of society.. but eventually they may develop them. Because they may not already have the contacts to purchase an illegal weapon, they may be trapped in a sting on illegal weapon purchases… almost like how people soliciting for murder are caught. (In a way, getting shafted twice)

[quote=spdrun]Personally, I hope that the baboons get the book thrown at them legally, so it doesn’t come to someone resorting to vigilantism.[/quote]Ditto..

[quote=spdrun]Lastly, why does it always seem to be a dept in California? From what I read, LAPD, Oakland, and BART-PD have 2x to 3x the officer-involved shooting rate of the NYPD.[/quote]I don’t know about the numbers.. I have always heard that NYPDs rate is higher. Either way, any abuse of authority by law enforcement is extremely wrong and should be dealt with very severely.

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[quote=spdrun]Not immune from a relative of the people who were shot pumping a few rounds into their kneecaps after the whole thing is long forgotten. Just enough damage to cripple for life, not kill of course.[/quote]You forgot enhanced gun control.. If the relatives do not already have a firearm, do you think the background check will now allow them to purchase one? Particularly if you consider that they have a ‘grievance’ against the police.

If they already have one, don’t you think that there may be a ‘pretense’ to confiscate? California will confiscate your firearms if you are convicted of misdemeanor battery.

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[quote=spdrun]Hopefully, a jury won’t agree and will bankrupt their sorry asses into homelessness. At least the area has a nice, warm, climate for sleeping under a bridge.[/quote]The problem is that the attorneys for the cops that shot the innocent people are paid for by citizens of California.. because it was done in the process of their normal job. Unless there is extreme negligence, which is rarely found, they are literally immune from prosecution.

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[quote=spdrun]

(and you can add scared cops with guns who shoot first check second to that list as well — one of the two LA mistake shootings was done in the victims back)

Scared cops? Trigger-happy baboons. Can’t handle the job, don’t take it. They deserve all of the lawsuits that are no doubt coming their way.[/quote]Both scared cops and trigger-happy baboons are a problem. The trigger-happy baboons don’t check second after shooting first.. they shoot second and third and then claim that they were scared for their life and that an unarmed person was threatening to their safety and looked like they were holding a weapon.

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Looks like people have more to fear from crazed (ex)cops with guns than criminals with guns right now… (and you can add scared cops with guns who shoot first check second to that list as well — one of the two LA mistake shootings was done in the victims back)

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