[ucodegen]

FlyerInHi; There is an aspect of your original comment that you are missing or avoiding dealing with, and it has to do with syntax and wording.

Note the importance on wording in your first section..

“Not only was he fired, but the Navy Secretary fired him to preempt Trump from doing so.”

as if Trumps firing of the captain was going to be a “fait accompli” by the president. Actual wording was

“I didn’t want to get into a decision where the president would feel that he had to intervene because the Navy couldn’t be decisive,”

from Modlys perspective. The second example is not a “fait accompli” on Trump firing the captain, and seems to support my contention that Modly was panicking and covering his butt because the president might look at firing Modly for not being decisive on dealing with COVID-19 issues under his command; so Modly effectively fires the person responsible for revealing that there are COVID-19 problems on board that are not being addressed.

[ucodegen]

[quote=FlyerInHi]According to another article, Trump is the one who wanted to do the firing.

Trump reportedly wanted to fire the US Navy captain who pleaded for ‘immediate’ coronavirus help

https://www.businessinsider.com/trump-wanted-to-fired-the-us-navy-captain-brett-crozier-2020-4

Acting Secretary of the Navy Thomas Modly reportedly told a colleague that President Donald Trump wanted to fire the commander of an aircraft carrier who warned of the coronavirus outbreak aboard his ship.[/quote]
Key words highlighted.. reportedly is a weasel word.. source is the person I have been stating is covering their butt.

[ucodegen]

[quote=FlyerInHi]In a precious interview, the acting navy secretary admitted that the fired the captain to preempt Trump from do so himself. Moldy also told a colleague.

Acting Navy secretary Thomas Modly, in an extensive interview about the firing of the commander of a disease-threatened aircraft carrier, said he acted because he believed the captain was “panicking” under pressure — and wanted to make the move himself, before President Trump ordered the captain’s dismissal.
“I didn’t want to get into a decision where the president would feel that he had to intervene because the Navy couldn’t be decisive,”

https://www.washingtonpost.com/opinions/2020/04/05/acting-navy-chief-fired-crozier-panicking-before-trump-might-intervene/%5B/quote%5D
Key sentence highlighted…. said by Modly, who it seems can not handle pressure.. and trying to ‘blame’ someone as justification for their action instead of simply stating that the captain violated proceedure.. etc. What is ironic here is that Modly is claiming in part that he fired the Captain because it looked to him like the captain was “panicking”, when in actuality – with your previous reference included – that it was actually Modly panicking and trying to cover his ass.

I suspect that Modly might have actually wanted to prevent Trump from firing his own ass! President Trump already had a replacement (“Kenneth Braithwaite”) lined up for replacing Modly.. just waiting to get him confirm by the Senate — which was supported by the previous reference you gave.

I have seen VPs and Directors in companies do exactly what Modly has done in an attempt to cover their butt for a bad decision or a series of bad decisions — and try to deflect the CEO from firing their own butt.

[ucodegen]

[quote=FlyerInHi]I am surprised that in San Diego, a navy town, people aren’t talking about the captain that was fired for writing to his superiors about infections on his ship. Not only was he fired, but the Navy Secretary fired him to preempt Trump from doing so. Plus the Navy Secretary gave a profanity filled speech to the crew of the ship to disparage the captain.

Wow!

https://www.sandiegouniontribune.com/news/military/story/2020-04-06/acting-navy-secretary-blasts-fired-carrier-commander-as-too-naive-or-too-stupid-in-address-to-crew%5B/quote%5D
The emboldened section is NOT supported by your reference, nor any where else. The article referenced DOES say that Modly’s actions have put the current administration in a very awkward position where they either have to fire Modly (who is actually a civilian contractor, not military), or support him. Firing would look bad for the administration – so will supporting him. It also looks like Modly trying to cover for his poor response to COVID-19.

The article also mentions that Trumps current nominee to be the full time is being held up by waiting for Senate confirmation… quote:

Peters said it’s time for President Donald Trump’s permanent nominee for the job — Kenneth Braithwaite, current;y ambassador to Norway — to be confirmed by the Senate.

“Let’s get on with confirming somebody else, someone who is more calm under fire,” Peters said. “It’s time to get a Navy secretary who can answer tough questions from the Senate”

[ucodegen]

[quote=The-Shoveler]From what I understand, covid-19 is a taker of lives in all age groups except maybe the very young (people less than 20).
[/quote]

The death rates per age group are from a China study. It does not take into account the younger morbidly obese video game thumb jockeys we now have. We are actually seeing a large percentage of deaths in the age range from 30 to 50 in the US. That bracket should only account for less than 1% of deaths (via the study in China), but is accounting for a significantly larger percentage. People who are morbidly obese, tend to have multiple health risks beyond poor nutrition including; high blood pressure, diabetes and heart disease. This also does not include the potential deleterious effects of vaping on lungs.

https://www.theguardian.com/us-news/2020/apr/01/coronavirus-young-americans-covid-19

[ucodegen]

[quote=scaredyclassic]I’ve been walking 4.5 miles a day. I’m inspired to walk more. I’m thinking 20 brisk miles a day! I could walk to work and back if I could do 20 miles. Figure 4.5 hours a day of walking. Eat during the walk.
[/quote]

I’m doing the exact same thing here. I try to get the S.O. out walking with me, but no dice. I’m not eating while I walk, but I do make sure I do hills as part of the walk. I tend to do the walks when very few people are out, that way I am less likely to run into someone ill on the walk. I used to do quick Iron Mtn, Mt Woodson, or Laguna loop hikes on the weekends – but the trails have been closed.

It it a good way to stay generally healthy.

[ucodegen]

How can those guys compete with this level of production? They are doing a onesy-twosy-threesy type of production. I think they are only doing production for local consumption – probably ‘street sales’ in India

Try this for ‘mass-production’. I don’t think the group above can even get close to the price point of this company.

There are also other manufacturing facilities that manufacture at the rate of that Chinese factory. 3M is at about 35million/per month.

[ucodegen]

[quote=ltsddd][quote=gzz]VLC media player is free and plays everything.

It could play h264 years ago. I think there’s a newer 265 now too.[/quote]

I have been a loyal VLC fan for years but it fails miserably with the .h264 files (those that I grab from my security cameras).
Upgraded to latest (3.x), nope.
Downgraded to some really old version (2.x), nope.
Set this, set that (demuxers, h/w accelerator), nope.

Tried GOM Player, nope.

Finally found PotPlayer, created by the same folks that created Kakao, that works like a charm without tweakings.[/quote]
It could be that the video file is actually violating the H264 format standard. VLC has gotten a little ‘anal’ about it because being ‘forgiving’ of invalid standards can make VLC exploitable by intentional tampering with the video file.

[ucodegen]

[quote=FlyerInHi]
It’s drugs and mental illness. We have a moral crisis in America. Stephen Colbert said 1/12th the population has a felony conviction. Not counting all the other crimes and dysfunction.[/quote]
Actually I would have to agree with FlyerInHi/brian here (and then I will have to wash my mouth out with soap..)

I have been closer to this situation than most. I have watched as an adolescent I know grew up into adulthood with very little responsibilities and structure. They were never told ‘no’ to anything they wanted. I tried to advise/intervene with the parent, but no success (there are serious legal limitations there). The parent was more concerned with the adolescent ‘liking/loving them’ as opposed to the approach that they should be guiding/forming a child into an adult who will be a responsible, contributing – and if the child likes/loves the parent in the end; so much the better. The process of growing up should be for the child, and the child’s development; not for the adult’s feelings of approval.

Lets call the above parent; “Parent1”. Lets introduce “Parent2” who is related to “Parent1”. Parent2 also has children, Parent1 has always felt that “Parent2” was hard on their children, however at the current state; Parent2’s child is functioning, has a job, active in sports, and has the goal to go into the Military. Yes this child has the normal problems associated with growing up in the teens, but they seem to be managing.

Parent1’s child is currently living ‘independently’, if you can call it ‘independent’. They are living off of assistance as a dual-diagnosis through SSI, which covers rent and food. They have used Marijuana, Hashish, Ecstasy(MDMA), and Methamphetamine(still using). They have been to the hospital 3 times that I remember on (near) ODs. One time they were brought to the hospital completely catatonic because they had used Meth to the point that they depleted their brain of dopamine. It took them nearly 7 days to come out of catatonia. When off any of the above drugs, they are normal – under these drugs or after recently using them, they demonstrate significant signs of schizophrenia. NOTE: the person doesn’t seem quite as normal now after all the near ODs – quite a bit slower mentally. This person seems to notice it, but still uses (no self control).

NOTE: This kid likes the concept that he is self medicating because it means that he is not responsible for his behavior… he is just self medicating(until completely fried). I busted him once on that because he let it slip that he liked the way it made him feel, that he liked the stoned effect.

If it weren’t for the SSI – dual diagnosis ‘disability’, they would likely be on the street, homeless. They have never had a job lasting more than a few days, have no plan, no desire to work… etc. At one point this child felt it would be nice to live as a homeless person.

I’ve tried to ‘file the serial numbers’ off as much as possible to anonymize the info without loosing the gist of what has happened.

– – –
The homeless problem will not be solved as a one solution fits all.

[ucodegen]

[quote=scaredyclassic]

Well. Maybe.

But doesnt that assume that conditions for growth stay roughly similar? You seem to say theres an objective right price that the market eventually moves toward, and fools chase higher prices.

But what if instead of a 2 trillion stimulus we have a 200 trillion stimulus. Or there is some other shock to the system that recalibrated what earnings might be in number terms[/quote]
The market does not move ‘toward’ the accurate valuation – but about it; sometimes higher, sometimes lower.

There are always shocks to the system that can ‘adjust’ or change the earnings and performance of a company. Volatility occurs almost proportionate to the unknowns. The trick is to figure out how much the shock will actually change the earnings. Nothings constant except change.

When confronted with the unknown, I discount the valuation for by the unknown, trying to bound how much is uncertain. I do take ‘jumps of faith’ on some, however I severely restrict how much I buy.

[ucodegen]

[quote=FlyerInHi][quote=scaredyclassic]efficient market theory would disagree, but I have no idea what reality is.

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Efficient-market_hypothesis
[/quote]

Yeah… that’s what they taught me first economics class in college.

I think the markets are more about momentum.

Like the invisible hand in allocating resources. Not that efficient right now, haha[/quote]
The way that Warren Buffet put it is;

In the short term, the market is a voting machine. (momentum)

In the long term, the market is a weighing machine. (efficient)

So that means it may be both. Not everybody in the market is logical. They see a stock, sounds good, sounds like a familiar name, and it is going up!.. so buy some. They don’t bother with looking at the financials. The PE ends up at 100, but revenue growth is at 5% and profit margin is unchanged. They stay in the stock. The increase in the price of the stock slows down – but they feel better times are ahead! Stock price tops out, starts to go down – but they feel it will resume going up and don’t double check valuation. Price is now in free fall and of course it will turn around. They have had the stock for 3 years and the true valuation is about 15% more than they paid for it. Now the stock price crashes through the +15% over cost valuation and head for their buy-in price. They panic and sell (capitulation) at about 2% below their buy in price. The stock continues down an additional 10%.. bottoms and moves in a flat line for a bit then starts going up. The emotional investor is to scared to buy because they don’t look at valuation and instead just looks at the movement of the stock price. Stock price continues to rise and goes past the +15% valuation (true valuation) of the company and the emotional investor starts worrying that they are getting left behind and that the ‘train has left the station’. They end up jumping on, buying the stock at 19% above true valuation… rinse and repeat (selling at 10% below true valuation again).

I have seen it so many times… I have had colleagues ask about how I have managed to save for retirement and I tell them. They ask for suggestions, I give them some basic mutual fund advice, but they don’t act on it until more than 5 years later at the top of the market (fearing they would be left behind), and they panic and buy in at the top… then as it drops, they panic and sell, sometimes below buy in. Of course they get angry at me and I ask when did they buy, and why didn’t they buy when I suggested? Why didn’t they tell me that they were going to buy the fund right before they actually bought it. I also don’t give them any more suggestions, even when asked. They don’t have to stomach for the volatility.

To succeed at stock investing, you generally need to be calm and have a ‘cast iron stomach’. You need to realize that the cattle herd moves to stock around violently sometimes and in fact, that might give you opportunities .. and a chance to pick up some ‘steak’…

flu – remember earlier this year when I said that this market downturn might have some ‘legs’ on it?..

[ucodegen]

[quote=Coronita]that’s perfectly fine. I had not had a chance to go through each thing and was hoping someone would go through that and comment. Glad you did. I get so much email about Coronavirus, it’s getting tough to figure out what’s real and what isn’t. Heat and warm temps might not really slow this down, unfortunately. It’s over 90 in India, and unfortunately it doesn’t appear India isn’t impacted by cv too.[/quote]
We don’t know yet. Considering Iran is also on the warm side, and it’s death-rate/test-positive is about 6.8% to our 1.7% and they have more total deaths than the United States at 2,640 to our 2,112; I wouldn’t put too much stock in temperature actually slowing this thing down.

I also suspect that Iran’s numbers may be poor sampling. Considering the poor testing across the board – including the CDC’s decision that they should primarily test those that look like they have the disease, it is hard to trust any of the numbers. No body knows how many people are largely symptomatic – going through the disease as feeling the ‘blahs’. I suspect that Germany and South Korea have done the best job in sample-testing. I don’t think the testing in both of these nations was compulsory – so they don’t have a true stochastic sample (truly random – representing the state of the population).

Germany – 455 deaths, 57298 cases = 0.79%

South Korea – 158 deaths, 9661 cases = 1.6%
NOTE:

United States – 2112 deaths, 122653 cases = 1.7%

Germany has not yet reached the tail of the curve, neither has the US, but South Korea looks like it may have. I am watching the rates through multiple sites because of the lack of consistency.
WHO sourced: https://experience.arcgis.com/experience/685d0ace521648f8a5beeeee1b9125cd
WorldOMeter: https://www.worldometers.info/coronavirus/country/us/
CDC: https://www.cdc.gov/coronavirus/2019-ncov/cases-updates/cases-in-us.html

I don’t use CDC numbers for the US and compare to the WHO for the rest of the world because they use different metrics and get the data at different times. WorldOMeter is an interesting approach since it uses ‘web site scraping’ including news, but is likely to over-report because of the possibility of double counting. WorldOMeter will also not have a good number of survivors and asymptomatic because that does not make the news.

[ucodegen]

Sorry Coronita, I have to correct some of what you put up;

The virus is not a living organism, but a protein molecule (and RNA) covered by a protective layer of lipid (fat), which, when absorbed by the cells of the ocular, nasal or buccal mucosa, changes their genetic code. (mutation) and convert them into aggressor and multiplier cells.

It is and isn’t a living organism. It does not have mitochondria to produce energy, does not take in energy. Its only purpose is to reproduce. It has no intelligence.
The description of of the lipid structure is roughly correct. Not all viruses are mutagenic(causes mutations). The path of replication of viruses tends not to be through mutation. Viruses can hijack the ability of the cell to reproduce (gets transcript-ed as if it were valid cell commands) There are viruses that are mutagenic, including chickenpox, herpes , HPV, HTLV-1 and possibly Zika. These will actually alter your DNA. The basis for this behavior is being used in gene-therapy.
https://www.google.com/search?client=firefox-b-1-e&q=gene-therapy+viral+splicing

Since the virus is not a living organism but a protein molecule, it is not killed, but decays on its own. The disintegration time depends on the temperature, humidity and type of material where it lies.

Yes and no – depends upon environment. The lipid virus wall is vulnerable to oxidation (time/temp/humidity dependant). A disturbing item I saw on SARS which is also a related CoronaVirus – is that it will survive on a brass doorknob for up to 2 hours. This is significant because copper and zinc are both known to kill bacteria and viruses – brass is an alloy of copper and zinc. SARS will last longer than a day on stainless steel. NOTE: Viruses and bacteria don’t last as long on wood as they do on stainless steel. This is because wood contains tannic acid, which has anti-viral, antibiotic behavior – but any significant quantities of tannic acid are toxic to humans.

HEAT melts fat; this is why it is so good to use water above 25 degrees Celsius for washing hands, clothes and everything. In addition, hot water makes more foam and that makes it even more useful.

Ummm.. lipids are not the thick coagulated fats that you see on meats. They are essentially oils (which if cooled down enough – will form something that looks like fats) Increased temperature increases solubility of compounds in water as well makes chemical reactions faster and occur more easily (notice that cars don’t ping under load in cold air – but do if it is hot outside). Foam has nothing to do with the reaction. Foam is from surfactants being aerated. Surfactants reduce surface tension and ease mixing. What is important is getting the soap thoroughly onto all surfaces (authorities are probably associating it with foam because it is easy for lay-people to visualize/understand). Best process is to dampen hands, apply soap (no more water), work hands well in soap with little water – then rinse. Look at surgeon’s wash-prep procedure videos. NOTE: HE(High Efficiency) washers generally can’t use soaps with high surfactants, that is why they use different clothes detergents – yet they wash clothes even better than the old style clothes washer. Put the soap meant for old time washers in an HE washer – and you got bubble hell.

Any mix with 1 part bleach and 5 parts water directly dissolves the protein, breaks it down from the inside.

(How does the bleach get ‘inside’?) Bleach will break apart DNA and RNA (the reason why criminals use it to ‘anonymize’ blood stains.). It also reacts with the lipid boundaries making them unstable – incomplete research here, but involves bleach dissociated to hypochlorous acid then reacting with the Lipids forming Lipid Chlorohydrins with the lipid boundary becoming unstable. You have to be careful of the type of chlorine we are talking about in terms of dilution.

Oxygenated water helps long after soap, alcohol and chlorine, because peroxide dissolves the virus protein, but you have to use it pure and it hurts your skin.

Oxygenated water is NOT water with hydrogen peroxide in it. Oxygenated water does nothing in terms of dissolving the virus, or inactivating the virus. Hydrogen Peroxide breaks down two different ways when mixed in water. It becomes two molecules of HO (very reactive oxydizer) or a molecule of water and one H+ (also very reactive). Both will damage both the lipid boundary as well as the DNA/RNA strands themselves. NOTE: Hydrogen Peroxide bleach(no chlorine therefore color safe) is better than chlorine bleach for removing mildew smell – it breaks apart spores too!. DON’T mix Chlorine and Hydrogen Peroxide – the result is Toxic Gas.

NOTE: UV light is a very good sterilizer… the hospitals are now using a surface sterilizer for rooms that uses UV light at levels that can be toxic to humans.
https://www.uvccleaningsystems.com/
https://www.sciencedaily.com/releases/2015/10/151007125740.htm

[ucodegen]

[quote=FlyerInHi]I guess those who cannot read Chinese can always check out the Epoch Times for the same coverage.[/quote]
Or use Google web page translate:
https://translate.google.com/translate?hl=en&sl=zh-CN&tl=en&u=https%3A%2F%2Fnews.ltn.com.tw%2Fnews%2Fworld%2Fbreakingnews%2F3114548%3Futm_source%3DFACEBOOK%26utm_medium%3DAPP%26utm_campaign%3DSHARE%26fbclid%3DIwAR1Gglqa0BUXWF1G4I5h33ke4OZm3N-jU-4MTRgtwZZF4yLPI6Jt84Gy0cc

It won’t translate pictograms in images, but it does get the Unicode or Big5 characters.

This is something I mentioned a while back – that the Chinese numbers are suspect. I was watching it grow.. and then all of a sudden, the numbers of infections stopped growing and the number of deaths nearly stopped at the same time. Incubation time of the disease is about 2 to 12 days, resolution (clearing the disease or death) can be up to 3 weeks. This means that the Wuhan death toll should have continued to increase for nearly 4 weeks after the infection rate dropped to near zero.

Some of this jives with what I have been seeing (numerically). The death rate once someone goes ‘critical’ is around 30% or more. There is a very large asymptomatic or weak infection group. Because of the weak stochastic testing, the reason why COVID-19 goes from a weak infection to a serious infection-death may be hard to discover, as well as its true death rate on infection.

The only countries that seem to have done a half decent job are Germany and South Korea.

[ucodegen]

[quote=svelte]I’m coming to the conclusion that it’s all going to be guesswork when this is over. Not everyone is going to be tested for COVID-19, so they are going to base the resulting statistics based on guesstimates.

We’ll never get a firm answer on what percentage of those with COVID-19 were hospitalized or died. It will just be “of those who were tested”.[/quote]
I agree. That is also why I disagree with the CDC’s path of only testing the seriously ill. When they are seriously ill, there is already a good idea of what the problem is. I bet they are also not recording specifics of those with severe cases vs the people who seem to shrug if off. We currently don’t understand why the severity differs so much between different people. – not too happy with the CDC right now.

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