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Hmmm. I’ve never been called — NorthCountyMan
I tell people make sure you trust your lender and your broker….so there.

You may want to rephrase this to:
Only use a lender and broker that you can trust.
It is not good to trust someone when the trust is misplaced.

[ucodegen]

Hmmm. I’ve never been called — NorthCountyMan
I tell people make sure you trust your lender and your broker….so there.

You may want to rephrase this to:
Only use a lender and broker that you can trust.
It is not good to trust someone when the trust is misplaced.

[ucodegen]

Don’t forget to add in an offset for re-doing the shower. You never design a shower whose showerhead points to the opening. Use that shower once and the bathroom will be flooded.

[ucodegen]

Don’t forget to add in an offset for re-doing the shower. You never design a shower whose showerhead points to the opening. Use that shower once and the bathroom will be flooded.

[ucodegen]

If he works in national security and gets foreclosed upon.. he is going to have some real tough times with his clearance!!

[ucodegen]

If he works in national security and gets foreclosed upon.. he is going to have some real tough times with his clearance!!

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I suspect another part of the banks dis-satisfaction, is that they were hoping that the auction would create enough ‘frenzy’ to be able to offload the houses at or real near comps. When that didn’t happen, it may have caused them to realize that they are going to lose some skin in this game, possibly a lot of skin. This auction is just the start of the houses they are going to have to be dealing with and unloading.

[ucodegen]

You probably meant http://westsideremeltdown.blogspot.com/

The link you posted doesn’t go anywhere..

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Rents are way up, and sellers aren’t lowering their asking prices at all. Time will tell.

This follows something I mentioned earlier, but some people thought I was full of it. Many of the apartment owners are also builders. CBRichard Ellis(BRE), KBhomes just to start. With vacancy rates under 5%, it is possible for the apartment complexes to push rates up. The whole idea is to alternately push house and then apartment rates up (one side then the other side of the bubble). In many cases you can rent a house for what an apartment would rent for. If a 300 unit apartment complex raises rent by 10%, and gets a 10% increase in vacancy (about 30 apartments vacant as a result).. they basically break even.. but they can now rent those 30 apartments to vacationers..

The apartment owners (who are builders) are trying to push people into buying the houses (pushing the rent-buy equation). One thing to watch is the fee for break-lease. The higher the fee, the more the apartment complex feels that better deals with renting may be around the corner or available within the lease period. If the apartment complex feels that they can get more within 6 months or less, the break lease will be less (almost want to encourage you to break-lease).. Break-lease fees in SD went up almost 50% on some apartment complexes in SD recently.

[ucodegen]

Yes, please ring a bell (on time preferably, unlike the last time) when recession starts and bottoms.

It already rang. It was ringing when I was posting questions about who was picking up securitized loans (mortgage backed securities). The pre-bell was when people were warning about the excessive exotic mortgages and house prices being way out of line with rents. There have been several discussions on this board of potential ways of the Federal reserve handling the problem.. and why just lowering the interest rate may not be possible. Out of recession bell TBD in a few years.

Are you saying that hedge funds are guranteed money after the usual 21+ percent management fee? Who needs ’em.Plenty of bear funds, precious metal funds, ETF’s, etc for turmoil in markets.

You don’t understand the management fee. There is a fixed management fee + a percentage of the profits. No profits, you get hit with just the fixed fee. Your statement on bear funds is correct (though many of these have high management fees). There are alternatives for people with liquid assets(also investing in other countries is an option). My statement about the middle getting screwed has to do with those who have most of their money tied up in non-liquid assets (most of the middle class). Poorer people rent, richer often own outright, but not all of their money is tied up in a non-liquid asset.

Look at what’s happened- corporate profits, thru the roof. Executive compensation, likewise. Bonuses for Goldman ,16 Billion.Wages for the average Joe- stagnant.

Only certain specific industries have had profits through the roof. You are obsessed with the dollar amount, not the value being bought. If I receive 50 billion dollars and it is enough for me to buy a city block, or if I receive 50 million dollars and I can buy an entire city (same size, effectively same location).. which would entail greater value gain? Tumultuous situations is where the real wealthy and the smart investor makes their money. It is when the market is at its least efficient.

[ucodegen]

To borrow a phrase…

“Most Excellent” information…

[ucodegen]

You mentioned the carry trade and i think that is what really caught the FED off guard.

I think the carry trade got everyone off guard. I noticed the stock market drops and back-traced it. The sub-prime meltdown is limited(for now) and wouldn’t cause that kind of perturbation.

Regarding destroying the dollar, that scares me to death and I don’t think it will work. If the dollar craters, then US Treasuries are less appealing and fall in value sending interest rates up higher.

It is the only way I can see out of it, that is do-able. If they crater the dollar, they can increase M0 and increase interest rates. The deficit gets funded by printed money and doesn’t have to be funded with Treasuries. It does mean that those with cash assets in the US get screwed. It also does bring in Treasury purchasers because of the higher yield (long time holders vs short time).

I can tell you one thing I wouldn’t want to be Bernanke right now.

Agreed.. What is also going on, and what I feel is really moving things.. is much more complicated than the general media is covering..

[ucodegen]

I think the fed has got his nutz in a big vise now.
Destroy the dollar ?
Or
crash the national (global) economy ?…Hmmmm…?

I am betting on destroy the dollar.. It could help balance trade in the process and keep American industries running. I think Warren Buffet is betting this way too.

[ucodegen]

What are the chances the FED will actually cut rates?

Probably not good. One big problem; we are presently running a deficit. To fund the deficit without increasing M0(money supply-‘printing money’), treasuries have to be issued. The US savings rate is dismal, foreigners have been buying treasuries(see note below) which they are less inclined to do now. Who is going to pick up these treasuries if the rate of return is lower?

NOTE: Some of the treasuries (and other investments) have been picked up through carry trade with the Japanese currency. Get a Japanese loan and then buy a higher yielding security (treasury).. make money on the spread between yields, on money that is not yours.. — Japanese have been increasing their rates and the yen currency is getting stronger. This cuts down/off the number of treasury buyers using the carry trade.

Greenspan lowered the Fed funds rate to 1% to head off the recession from the nasdaq implosion and the aftermath of 9/11. As a result we created a huge housing bubble

The greatest cause of the bubble was not the lowering of the rates, but the use of “Wall-Street” financing which walks around the banking laws. Both the Fed and FDIC have little control over these guys. Rates started going up in 2003, but house prices peaked in 2006. If it was due to rates alone, house prices should have peaked in 2003. In fact, the largest percentage gains in house prices were between 2003 and 2006.

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The taxpayers moving out of state include those who would have been in a position to buy properties. The non-taxpayers entering the population (including births) are almost irrelevant to the pricing of homes because they don’t participate in the sales market.

Bingo.. something that politicians should really pay attention to. They look at all this migration (Hispanic) as a positive tax base (including illegal) to further support their ‘house of cards’. In reality, that is not true. It is mixed, but has a lower overall tax ‘yield’ than the population that is being chased out/leaving. In the mean time, they make the barriers to entry for other foreigners (who will generally be more educated) higher.

“LA has had this profile for 20 years”

That is why I don’t live there anymore. It has turned into a sewer. I see more and more roadside trash and garbage every time I visit. A large and increasing portion of the population have a strong sense of entitlement.

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