[ucodegen]

I consider them independent runs so I say 50/50. Your’re right too they want to make it look hard but showing one of the doors effectively makes it 50/50 so they know that over time there will be enough winna’s to keep people tuned it etc.

I’m not convinced on their independence. I am coming up with 33% on a car and 66% chance on a goat going into the reveal. While the next choice is binary when independent, the entrance condition alters the probability.

[ucodegen]

I consider them independent runs so I say 50/50. Your’re right too they want to make it look hard but showing one of the doors effectively makes it 50/50 so they know that over time there will be enough winna’s to keep people tuned it etc.

I’m not convinced on their independence. I am coming up with 33% on a car and 66% chance on a goat going into the reveal. While the next choice is binary when independent, the entrance condition alters the probability.

[ucodegen]

I consider them independent runs so I say 50/50. Your’re right too they want to make it look hard but showing one of the doors effectively makes it 50/50 so they know that over time there will be enough winna’s to keep people tuned it etc.

I’m not convinced on their independence. I am coming up with 33% on a car and 66% chance on a goat going into the reveal. While the next choice is binary when independent, the entrance condition alters the probability.

[ucodegen]

If game show host opens the door at random: in 33 cases he will reveal the car and all will be over; in 33 cases the car will be behind #1; and in 33 cases it will be behind the other unopened door.

The example in wikipedia has the gameshow host always picking the goat and they come up with the 66.67%. What I have to convince myself is that the added information did not make them independent runs.

Now that I am finally waking up(dark chocolate kicking in).. they may not be independent runs because the entrance criteria to the second choice gives a 33.33% chance of being on the car and a 66.66% chance of being on the goat.

That does add another question which would take some gameshow observing. I notice that sometimes on these reveals, they throw in a completely different choice. If the probability on swap results of a 66% chance, would they give you the option to swap if you have picked the door with the car and a completely different set of choices if you haven’t?

[ucodegen]

If game show host opens the door at random: in 33 cases he will reveal the car and all will be over; in 33 cases the car will be behind #1; and in 33 cases it will be behind the other unopened door.

The example in wikipedia has the gameshow host always picking the goat and they come up with the 66.67%. What I have to convince myself is that the added information did not make them independent runs.

Now that I am finally waking up(dark chocolate kicking in).. they may not be independent runs because the entrance criteria to the second choice gives a 33.33% chance of being on the car and a 66.66% chance of being on the goat.

That does add another question which would take some gameshow observing. I notice that sometimes on these reveals, they throw in a completely different choice. If the probability on swap results of a 66% chance, would they give you the option to swap if you have picked the door with the car and a completely different set of choices if you haven’t?

[ucodegen]

If game show host opens the door at random: in 33 cases he will reveal the car and all will be over; in 33 cases the car will be behind #1; and in 33 cases it will be behind the other unopened door.

The example in wikipedia has the gameshow host always picking the goat and they come up with the 66.67%. What I have to convince myself is that the added information did not make them independent runs.

Now that I am finally waking up(dark chocolate kicking in).. they may not be independent runs because the entrance criteria to the second choice gives a 33.33% chance of being on the car and a 66.66% chance of being on the goat.

That does add another question which would take some gameshow observing. I notice that sometimes on these reveals, they throw in a completely different choice. If the probability on swap results of a 66% chance, would they give you the option to swap if you have picked the door with the car and a completely different set of choices if you haven’t?

[ucodegen]

If game show host opens the door at random: in 33 cases he will reveal the car and all will be over; in 33 cases the car will be behind #1; and in 33 cases it will be behind the other unopened door.

The example in wikipedia has the gameshow host always picking the goat and they come up with the 66.67%. What I have to convince myself is that the added information did not make them independent runs.

Now that I am finally waking up(dark chocolate kicking in).. they may not be independent runs because the entrance criteria to the second choice gives a 33.33% chance of being on the car and a 66.66% chance of being on the goat.

That does add another question which would take some gameshow observing. I notice that sometimes on these reveals, they throw in a completely different choice. If the probability on swap results of a 66% chance, would they give you the option to swap if you have picked the door with the car and a completely different set of choices if you haven’t?

[ucodegen]

If game show host opens the door at random: in 33 cases he will reveal the car and all will be over; in 33 cases the car will be behind #1; and in 33 cases it will be behind the other unopened door.

The example in wikipedia has the gameshow host always picking the goat and they come up with the 66.67%. What I have to convince myself is that the added information did not make them independent runs.

Now that I am finally waking up(dark chocolate kicking in).. they may not be independent runs because the entrance criteria to the second choice gives a 33.33% chance of being on the car and a 66.66% chance of being on the goat.

That does add another question which would take some gameshow observing. I notice that sometimes on these reveals, they throw in a completely different choice. If the probability on swap results of a 66% chance, would they give you the option to swap if you have picked the door with the car and a completely different set of choices if you haven’t?

[ucodegen]

I agree with you however the games shows want people to win so that people will watch. The merchandise is donated by the manufacturers.

Yes but not easily. It is more important to have people on the edge of their seat than to make winning too easy which would be boring.

I can see where the 66% is coming from, the problem is the information being added to the system in the middle and between sets for selections. After the added information, are they independent runs?

[ucodegen]

I agree with you however the games shows want people to win so that people will watch. The merchandise is donated by the manufacturers.

Yes but not easily. It is more important to have people on the edge of their seat than to make winning too easy which would be boring.

I can see where the 66% is coming from, the problem is the information being added to the system in the middle and between sets for selections. After the added information, are they independent runs?

[ucodegen]

I agree with you however the games shows want people to win so that people will watch. The merchandise is donated by the manufacturers.

Yes but not easily. It is more important to have people on the edge of their seat than to make winning too easy which would be boring.

I can see where the 66% is coming from, the problem is the information being added to the system in the middle and between sets for selections. After the added information, are they independent runs?

[ucodegen]

I agree with you however the games shows want people to win so that people will watch. The merchandise is donated by the manufacturers.

Yes but not easily. It is more important to have people on the edge of their seat than to make winning too easy which would be boring.

I can see where the 66% is coming from, the problem is the information being added to the system in the middle and between sets for selections. After the added information, are they independent runs?

[ucodegen]

I agree with you however the games shows want people to win so that people will watch. The merchandise is donated by the manufacturers.

Yes but not easily. It is more important to have people on the edge of their seat than to make winning too easy which would be boring.

I can see where the 66% is coming from, the problem is the information being added to the system in the middle and between sets for selections. After the added information, are they independent runs?

[ucodegen]

The whole problem is that you added info to the system which altered the game. It also causes the probability calcs to be completely reshuffled. You can’t carry over probability calcs when info gets added to the system. Example:

I have 10 doors. The prize is behind one: The odds of winning are 10%

I then open the door with the prize and then close it.
Are the odds of winning 10% per door, or 100% on the door I opened and then closed with 0% everywhere else. The information resets the calcs.

[ucodegen]

The whole problem is that you added info to the system which altered the game. It also causes the probability calcs to be completely reshuffled. You can’t carry over probability calcs when info gets added to the system. Example:

I have 10 doors. The prize is behind one: The odds of winning are 10%

I then open the door with the prize and then close it.
Are the odds of winning 10% per door, or 100% on the door I opened and then closed with 0% everywhere else. The information resets the calcs.

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