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TheBreeze
Participant[quote=partypup]
Now, that said: I am intrigued by your prediction of a deflationary spiral. And since I just won a bet with a friend today (last July, when the Dow was at 12,500, I bet him that it would be below 7,000 by 2010), I am encouraged to make another: I’ll wager you that by summer 2010 this country will be in the grips of an inflationary – not deflationary – spiral. And just to be fair, let’s say that the determination as to whether or not we are in such a spiral will be made based on what is detected and documented in the mainstream news – because if these chumps are able to pick up on it, then you can be quite sure that it will be as plain to all of us as the nose on your face. Are you in?[/quote]By 2010 the U.S. could once again be experiencing inflation. I think it might be hard to distinguish between a spiral and normal inflation though. What if the price of food doubles in the first half of 2010, but house prices are still declining?
I would rather bet against you on something that is more easily measured. How about we bet that there are no news stories of grocery stores in California running out of food due to supply chain disruptions that are a result of economic catastrophe between now and the end of 2010? Note that this would exclude instances where grocery stores go out of business or run out of food due to natural disasters. It would also exclude instances where grocery stores place limits on how much product people can buy, like they did with rice last year. In the penultimate outcome, there is a news story where I (TheBreeze) and some other hapless individual (or individuals) literally brawl over the last can of chicken soup at Ralph’s.
If I win, you donate $50 to smiletrain.org. I will donate $50 to the cause of your choice if you win.
By the way, you are sounding awfully, awfully cocky. Perhaps your predictive powers are as great as you think. Or perhaps you are due for a comeuppance. Let’s hope you can withdraw your fiat if TSHTF while you are on one of your trips:
http://www.ft.com/cms/s/0/67fba682-075a-11de-9294-000077b07658.html
Participant[quote=partypup]
Now, that said: I am intrigued by your prediction of a deflationary spiral. And since I just won a bet with a friend today (last July, when the Dow was at 12,500, I bet him that it would be below 7,000 by 2010), I am encouraged to make another: I’ll wager you that by summer 2010 this country will be in the grips of an inflationary – not deflationary – spiral. And just to be fair, let’s say that the determination as to whether or not we are in such a spiral will be made based on what is detected and documented in the mainstream news – because if these chumps are able to pick up on it, then you can be quite sure that it will be as plain to all of us as the nose on your face. Are you in?[/quote]By 2010 the U.S. could once again be experiencing inflation. I think it might be hard to distinguish between a spiral and normal inflation though. What if the price of food doubles in the first half of 2010, but house prices are still declining?
I would rather bet against you on something that is more easily measured. How about we bet that there are no news stories of grocery stores in California running out of food due to supply chain disruptions that are a result of economic catastrophe between now and the end of 2010? Note that this would exclude instances where grocery stores go out of business or run out of food due to natural disasters. It would also exclude instances where grocery stores place limits on how much product people can buy, like they did with rice last year. In the penultimate outcome, there is a news story where I (TheBreeze) and some other hapless individual (or individuals) literally brawl over the last can of chicken soup at Ralph’s.
If I win, you donate $50 to smiletrain.org. I will donate $50 to the cause of your choice if you win.
By the way, you are sounding awfully, awfully cocky. Perhaps your predictive powers are as great as you think. Or perhaps you are due for a comeuppance. Let’s hope you can withdraw your fiat if TSHTF while you are on one of your trips:
http://www.ft.com/cms/s/0/67fba682-075a-11de-9294-000077b07658.html
Participant[quote=partypup]
Now, that said: I am intrigued by your prediction of a deflationary spiral. And since I just won a bet with a friend today (last July, when the Dow was at 12,500, I bet him that it would be below 7,000 by 2010), I am encouraged to make another: I’ll wager you that by summer 2010 this country will be in the grips of an inflationary – not deflationary – spiral. And just to be fair, let’s say that the determination as to whether or not we are in such a spiral will be made based on what is detected and documented in the mainstream news – because if these chumps are able to pick up on it, then you can be quite sure that it will be as plain to all of us as the nose on your face. Are you in?[/quote]By 2010 the U.S. could once again be experiencing inflation. I think it might be hard to distinguish between a spiral and normal inflation though. What if the price of food doubles in the first half of 2010, but house prices are still declining?
I would rather bet against you on something that is more easily measured. How about we bet that there are no news stories of grocery stores in California running out of food due to supply chain disruptions that are a result of economic catastrophe between now and the end of 2010? Note that this would exclude instances where grocery stores go out of business or run out of food due to natural disasters. It would also exclude instances where grocery stores place limits on how much product people can buy, like they did with rice last year. In the penultimate outcome, there is a news story where I (TheBreeze) and some other hapless individual (or individuals) literally brawl over the last can of chicken soup at Ralph’s.
If I win, you donate $50 to smiletrain.org. I will donate $50 to the cause of your choice if you win.
By the way, you are sounding awfully, awfully cocky. Perhaps your predictive powers are as great as you think. Or perhaps you are due for a comeuppance. Let’s hope you can withdraw your fiat if TSHTF while you are on one of your trips:
http://www.ft.com/cms/s/0/67fba682-075a-11de-9294-000077b07658.html
Participant[quote=partypup]
Now, that said: I am intrigued by your prediction of a deflationary spiral. And since I just won a bet with a friend today (last July, when the Dow was at 12,500, I bet him that it would be below 7,000 by 2010), I am encouraged to make another: I’ll wager you that by summer 2010 this country will be in the grips of an inflationary – not deflationary – spiral. And just to be fair, let’s say that the determination as to whether or not we are in such a spiral will be made based on what is detected and documented in the mainstream news – because if these chumps are able to pick up on it, then you can be quite sure that it will be as plain to all of us as the nose on your face. Are you in?[/quote]By 2010 the U.S. could once again be experiencing inflation. I think it might be hard to distinguish between a spiral and normal inflation though. What if the price of food doubles in the first half of 2010, but house prices are still declining?
I would rather bet against you on something that is more easily measured. How about we bet that there are no news stories of grocery stores in California running out of food due to supply chain disruptions that are a result of economic catastrophe between now and the end of 2010? Note that this would exclude instances where grocery stores go out of business or run out of food due to natural disasters. It would also exclude instances where grocery stores place limits on how much product people can buy, like they did with rice last year. In the penultimate outcome, there is a news story where I (TheBreeze) and some other hapless individual (or individuals) literally brawl over the last can of chicken soup at Ralph’s.
If I win, you donate $50 to smiletrain.org. I will donate $50 to the cause of your choice if you win.
By the way, you are sounding awfully, awfully cocky. Perhaps your predictive powers are as great as you think. Or perhaps you are due for a comeuppance. Let’s hope you can withdraw your fiat if TSHTF while you are on one of your trips:
http://www.ft.com/cms/s/0/67fba682-075a-11de-9294-000077b07658.html
Participant[quote=partypup]
Now YOU’RE the one worrying too much, Breeze! Are you expecting a nuclear holocaust or an eruption from a supervolcano? Because short of that, I just don’t see how I wouldn’t be able to return home from any trip I take.
[/quote]You’ve said in previous posts that the “trucks are going to stop running.” So when armageddon hits, the trucks are going to stop running but air travel will be unaffected? Why would that be?
[quote=partypup]
I could see some brief disruption that would require me to stay put for a few days, or a sudden hike in air fare, but that’s about it.
[/quote]You know you can only live a few days without water right? Are you sure you’ll be able to get back to your water supply and your ham radio in time to survive?
[quote=partypup]
And since I have enough money in various places, neither of those two scenarios concern me much.
[/quote]Are you talking about fiat money? I thought all fiat money was going to collapse and be worth nothing.
[quote=partypup]
Why don’t you spin a few of your Armageddon scenarios for me that you leave me stranded outside out of the U.S. permanently?
[/quote]You only need to be stranded for a short while without your water supplies to end up dead. Surely you don’t expect the trucks to stop running and water to run out only in the states?
Participant[quote=partypup]
Now YOU’RE the one worrying too much, Breeze! Are you expecting a nuclear holocaust or an eruption from a supervolcano? Because short of that, I just don’t see how I wouldn’t be able to return home from any trip I take.
[/quote]You’ve said in previous posts that the “trucks are going to stop running.” So when armageddon hits, the trucks are going to stop running but air travel will be unaffected? Why would that be?
[quote=partypup]
I could see some brief disruption that would require me to stay put for a few days, or a sudden hike in air fare, but that’s about it.
[/quote]You know you can only live a few days without water right? Are you sure you’ll be able to get back to your water supply and your ham radio in time to survive?
[quote=partypup]
And since I have enough money in various places, neither of those two scenarios concern me much.
[/quote]Are you talking about fiat money? I thought all fiat money was going to collapse and be worth nothing.
[quote=partypup]
Why don’t you spin a few of your Armageddon scenarios for me that you leave me stranded outside out of the U.S. permanently?
[/quote]You only need to be stranded for a short while without your water supplies to end up dead. Surely you don’t expect the trucks to stop running and water to run out only in the states?
Participant[quote=partypup]
Now YOU’RE the one worrying too much, Breeze! Are you expecting a nuclear holocaust or an eruption from a supervolcano? Because short of that, I just don’t see how I wouldn’t be able to return home from any trip I take.
[/quote]You’ve said in previous posts that the “trucks are going to stop running.” So when armageddon hits, the trucks are going to stop running but air travel will be unaffected? Why would that be?
[quote=partypup]
I could see some brief disruption that would require me to stay put for a few days, or a sudden hike in air fare, but that’s about it.
[/quote]You know you can only live a few days without water right? Are you sure you’ll be able to get back to your water supply and your ham radio in time to survive?
[quote=partypup]
And since I have enough money in various places, neither of those two scenarios concern me much.
[/quote]Are you talking about fiat money? I thought all fiat money was going to collapse and be worth nothing.
[quote=partypup]
Why don’t you spin a few of your Armageddon scenarios for me that you leave me stranded outside out of the U.S. permanently?
[/quote]You only need to be stranded for a short while without your water supplies to end up dead. Surely you don’t expect the trucks to stop running and water to run out only in the states?
Participant[quote=partypup]
Now YOU’RE the one worrying too much, Breeze! Are you expecting a nuclear holocaust or an eruption from a supervolcano? Because short of that, I just don’t see how I wouldn’t be able to return home from any trip I take.
[/quote]You’ve said in previous posts that the “trucks are going to stop running.” So when armageddon hits, the trucks are going to stop running but air travel will be unaffected? Why would that be?
[quote=partypup]
I could see some brief disruption that would require me to stay put for a few days, or a sudden hike in air fare, but that’s about it.
[/quote]You know you can only live a few days without water right? Are you sure you’ll be able to get back to your water supply and your ham radio in time to survive?
[quote=partypup]
And since I have enough money in various places, neither of those two scenarios concern me much.
[/quote]Are you talking about fiat money? I thought all fiat money was going to collapse and be worth nothing.
[quote=partypup]
Why don’t you spin a few of your Armageddon scenarios for me that you leave me stranded outside out of the U.S. permanently?
[/quote]You only need to be stranded for a short while without your water supplies to end up dead. Surely you don’t expect the trucks to stop running and water to run out only in the states?
Participant[quote=partypup]
Now YOU’RE the one worrying too much, Breeze! Are you expecting a nuclear holocaust or an eruption from a supervolcano? Because short of that, I just don’t see how I wouldn’t be able to return home from any trip I take.
[/quote]You’ve said in previous posts that the “trucks are going to stop running.” So when armageddon hits, the trucks are going to stop running but air travel will be unaffected? Why would that be?
[quote=partypup]
I could see some brief disruption that would require me to stay put for a few days, or a sudden hike in air fare, but that’s about it.
[/quote]You know you can only live a few days without water right? Are you sure you’ll be able to get back to your water supply and your ham radio in time to survive?
[quote=partypup]
And since I have enough money in various places, neither of those two scenarios concern me much.
[/quote]Are you talking about fiat money? I thought all fiat money was going to collapse and be worth nothing.
[quote=partypup]
Why don’t you spin a few of your Armageddon scenarios for me that you leave me stranded outside out of the U.S. permanently?
[/quote]You only need to be stranded for a short while without your water supplies to end up dead. Surely you don’t expect the trucks to stop running and water to run out only in the states?
ParticipantPartypup,
Why do you think we are not going to have food and water? As I understand it, in the Great Depression, the market dropped 90%, but the stores still had food and water. Many people couldn’t afford it (thus the breadlines), but the stores never ran out.
So you basically think the dollar is going to lose all value and everyone will basically quit/get fired from their jobs? That is about the only way I can see the stores running out of food and water. Even if my income got cut 80%, I would still stay in the same job unless I could find another, better paying one.
How do you explain the strength in the dollar? Why hasn’t the dollar collapsed already? Surely everyone and their brother can see that the U.S. is going massively into debt and they should be sellers of the dollar. Why isn’t this happening now? How come gold isn’t at $2000 right now? How come gold isn’t at $5000?
It’s obvious you were right about the market dropping, but it’s a long way from there to when the basic necessities of life are hard to obtain.
I personally think we’re going to have a deflationary spiral, the dollar is going to hold it’s value, and, so long as I have a job, I will still be able to buy basic necessities.
Maybe you can help bridge the gap between where we are now and the implosion you are expecting. How do we get there from here?
ParticipantPartypup,
Why do you think we are not going to have food and water? As I understand it, in the Great Depression, the market dropped 90%, but the stores still had food and water. Many people couldn’t afford it (thus the breadlines), but the stores never ran out.
So you basically think the dollar is going to lose all value and everyone will basically quit/get fired from their jobs? That is about the only way I can see the stores running out of food and water. Even if my income got cut 80%, I would still stay in the same job unless I could find another, better paying one.
How do you explain the strength in the dollar? Why hasn’t the dollar collapsed already? Surely everyone and their brother can see that the U.S. is going massively into debt and they should be sellers of the dollar. Why isn’t this happening now? How come gold isn’t at $2000 right now? How come gold isn’t at $5000?
It’s obvious you were right about the market dropping, but it’s a long way from there to when the basic necessities of life are hard to obtain.
I personally think we’re going to have a deflationary spiral, the dollar is going to hold it’s value, and, so long as I have a job, I will still be able to buy basic necessities.
Maybe you can help bridge the gap between where we are now and the implosion you are expecting. How do we get there from here?
ParticipantPartypup,
Why do you think we are not going to have food and water? As I understand it, in the Great Depression, the market dropped 90%, but the stores still had food and water. Many people couldn’t afford it (thus the breadlines), but the stores never ran out.
So you basically think the dollar is going to lose all value and everyone will basically quit/get fired from their jobs? That is about the only way I can see the stores running out of food and water. Even if my income got cut 80%, I would still stay in the same job unless I could find another, better paying one.
How do you explain the strength in the dollar? Why hasn’t the dollar collapsed already? Surely everyone and their brother can see that the U.S. is going massively into debt and they should be sellers of the dollar. Why isn’t this happening now? How come gold isn’t at $2000 right now? How come gold isn’t at $5000?
It’s obvious you were right about the market dropping, but it’s a long way from there to when the basic necessities of life are hard to obtain.
I personally think we’re going to have a deflationary spiral, the dollar is going to hold it’s value, and, so long as I have a job, I will still be able to buy basic necessities.
Maybe you can help bridge the gap between where we are now and the implosion you are expecting. How do we get there from here?
ParticipantPartypup,
Why do you think we are not going to have food and water? As I understand it, in the Great Depression, the market dropped 90%, but the stores still had food and water. Many people couldn’t afford it (thus the breadlines), but the stores never ran out.
So you basically think the dollar is going to lose all value and everyone will basically quit/get fired from their jobs? That is about the only way I can see the stores running out of food and water. Even if my income got cut 80%, I would still stay in the same job unless I could find another, better paying one.
How do you explain the strength in the dollar? Why hasn’t the dollar collapsed already? Surely everyone and their brother can see that the U.S. is going massively into debt and they should be sellers of the dollar. Why isn’t this happening now? How come gold isn’t at $2000 right now? How come gold isn’t at $5000?
It’s obvious you were right about the market dropping, but it’s a long way from there to when the basic necessities of life are hard to obtain.
I personally think we’re going to have a deflationary spiral, the dollar is going to hold it’s value, and, so long as I have a job, I will still be able to buy basic necessities.
Maybe you can help bridge the gap between where we are now and the implosion you are expecting. How do we get there from here?
ParticipantPartypup,
Why do you think we are not going to have food and water? As I understand it, in the Great Depression, the market dropped 90%, but the stores still had food and water. Many people couldn’t afford it (thus the breadlines), but the stores never ran out.
So you basically think the dollar is going to lose all value and everyone will basically quit/get fired from their jobs? That is about the only way I can see the stores running out of food and water. Even if my income got cut 80%, I would still stay in the same job unless I could find another, better paying one.
How do you explain the strength in the dollar? Why hasn’t the dollar collapsed already? Surely everyone and their brother can see that the U.S. is going massively into debt and they should be sellers of the dollar. Why isn’t this happening now? How come gold isn’t at $2000 right now? How come gold isn’t at $5000?
It’s obvious you were right about the market dropping, but it’s a long way from there to when the basic necessities of life are hard to obtain.
I personally think we’re going to have a deflationary spiral, the dollar is going to hold it’s value, and, so long as I have a job, I will still be able to buy basic necessities.
Maybe you can help bridge the gap between where we are now and the implosion you are expecting. How do we get there from here?
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