[The-Shoveler]

[quote=Jazzman][quote=The-Shoveler]IMO any crash were it to happen would not be near as severe as the last time

Everyone keeps thinking we are doomed to repeat the last crash when there is almost none of the conditions that really caused the last crash occurring right now (that was truly a once in a life time event).

what we have going on now is more like what happened in the 1980’s when the boomers were coming of age to buy homes, only this time its millennials.

and Please STOP BLAMING BOOMERS, look across the Aisle at you old classmates.[/quote]
Are you referring to just the housing crash, or the credit crisis that led to the recession? There were three distinct, albeit interconnected, phases. The problem is that even last time we didn’t know exactly what the causes were until after the event. At the time it looked like lending was out of hand and irrational behavior had taken hold. All you need to know is that prices are very high. I don’t believe that prices have to be as high as the last bubble to qualify for a bubble.

What is common between now and then is high prices, monetary and fiscal policy aimed at buoying prices, conveyor belt collateralized mortgages, a sophisticated lending market, and government policy aimed at increasing home ownership. On top that you’ve had tax credits, mortgage interest deductions, a distorted property tax code, government guarantees, low deposit requirements, and schemes such as HAMP. So what subprime did for the last bubble you can find plenty that took its place. On the other hand, credit is tighter and investment banks are (hopefully) not stuffing toxic loans and concealing them in investments. But, you also have very low supply, a lot of speculative investor activity, and a market that was distorted by distressed properties. There is still a back log of REOs in some states. Pile on top of that the very low labor participation rate and anemic economic growth. Now throw in the Fed’s hesitancy to raise rates.

Now please explain to me what is good about our current situation? Your home has increased in value? Well, that doesn’t make you richer unless you sell it and downsize. You can borrow against it, but we know where that leads. No. Houses do not substitute for stocks and bonds and should not be a retirement plan. It doesn’t work. We need to get back to a normal market based on historical averages. Savings should be put to better use and people worried about having enough to retire on should be concerned about all these asset distortions, not relying on them.[/quote]

Not saying it’s good (or Bad), just saying that today has more in common with 1984-5 than 2006-7.

[The-Shoveler]

[quote=spdrun]If suburbia in SF’s equivalent of lizard country crashes and burns, that’s just fine and dandy. Sprawl is not a good thing.[/quote]

Sprawl (at least in CA) is just bedroom communities turning into big cities (with their own job centers).

[The-Shoveler]

IMO any crash were it to happen would not be near as severe as the last time

Everyone keeps thinking we are doomed to repeat the last crash when there is almost none of the conditions that really caused the last crash occurring right now (that was truly a once in a life time event).

what we have going on now is more like what happened in the 1980’s when the boomers were coming of age to buy homes, only this time its millennials.

and Please STOP BLAMING BOOMERS, look across the Aisle at you old classmates.

[The-Shoveler]

There is no growth without inflation IMO.

Right now the biggest issue with rents being high and house prices being high is lack of new builds and millennials coming of age as fast (or faster) than the boomers did during the 80’s.

Low prices will not get more housing built.

Nor will restrictive zoning.

[The-Shoveler]

[quote=ltsdd]Wouldn’t buy the books.

Bernanke doesn’t get enough credit for preventing a more serious economic meltdown.

Greenspan doesn’t get enough blame for the mess he “dumped” on Bernanke.

…as for Yellen, I am not exactly sure what she’s been doing.[/quote]

+1

[The-Shoveler]

Here is what Americans DON’T get about China,

If a housing bubble gets inconveniently in there way,
They will just plow them under and start again.

(or just give them to the workers, start new loans and hide the inconvenient numbers)

[The-Shoveler]

I would not want to own a strip mall.

[The-Shoveler]

Meh,

Maybe closer to a 1989 feeling, we are no where near the situation of 2006.

You need crazy loan officers OKing every loan to anyone with a pulse, then you got to let that run a few years to get to 2006.

[The-Shoveler]

Looks bad, amazing how fast these things just come up and then BAM!! it hits you.

Make me think these (probably smaller but still dangerous) storms could start to hit SD in the near future (next few years), if this el nino thing keeps coming back etc…

OH well this winter should be interesting,

[The-Shoveler]

LOL Yes My wife is very beautiful and very busy.

It’s my fault.

[The-Shoveler]

Coastal Property values IMO are probably not going to ever correlate again to incomes in most SoCal areas.

It’s more a luxury Idem.

W2 earners are probably going to need to look inland.

Been that way in LA since before the 80’s.

[The-Shoveler]

IMO Rates will stay low until wage inflation is very clearly evident.

Deflation is still very much a threat.

Anyway IMO.

[The-Shoveler]

[quote=spdrun]And vote GOP next election, since they seem to be less into helping mugs who got in over their heads as far as housing.[/quote]

I would respectfully disagree on this one, seems that housing tends to go up more during republican administrations at least during the last 30 years.

Was it not Bush who said “everyone should own a house”?

[The-Shoveler]

In the Mid 90’s (1994-1996) was also the bottom of the last housing bust so In this case it is kind of cherry picking your data points.

But I would agree that Most non engineers have not kept up with the Tech workers in general so that is also cherry picking (and becoming an issue on to itself but that is a different topic).

[The-Shoveler]

That’s really great flu!!

I Need to do more (my tire is not going away that easy LOL)

I work out everyday in the morning during the week But I should do more, Weekend I don’t but usually the wife and I take a long walk on the weekends (on the beach if possible).

Eating healthy has been my biggest issue as it is hit or miss with that, some-days I do , but then some-days it’s pizza and soda (or beer). This is my biggest struggle I think.

[Author]

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