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The-Shoveler
ParticipantIf you get just a recession prices might drop 10 or 15%, OK that would help, but it would be temporary and not enough for most to really feel affordable.
Without building (or over-building really) you are still left with more people than housing.
Participant[quote=FlyerInHi]
Unless people already have money, or bring money from somewhere else, high housing costs is really bad. Silicon Valley and Manhattan can sustain, but I have doubts about San Diego.[/quote]If they even were building (or start building) at a normal rate I would agree, but if they do not, then I don’t really.
I am afraid We may have permanently zoned out affordability (well at least until the next great recession, but those are not likely events really).
Participant[quote=poorgradstudent][quote=flu]I see a lot of homes off of 56. Is affordability more of the issue?[/quote]
This is my guess. It seems like the market for SFH under 600k is pretty tight, but there’s pretty decent inventory in the 800+ range and also for “luxury” condos.
It makes sense, as those are probably the two areas where developers get the most bang for their buck.[/quote]
If you priced every available home in SD under 500K I predict they would be all gone within a month.
Price is an issue but demand and limited supply is why.
ParticipantAgriculture is maybe about 5-10% of our GDP, but we are zoning like it is 80%, same thing in Ventura county.
Participant[quote=flu]I see a lot of homes off of 56. Is affordability more of the issue?[/quote]
It’s both,
1) Millennials coming of age (24-34) is the largest generation in history (EVER).
2) We are building homes at a rate about half normal over the last 30 or so years.
No matter how you slice it, it’s going to be tight.
ParticipantLOL, Kind of makes me glad I grew up back in the days when everyone had 5 kids and no one paid much attention to them LOL.
Most boomers grew up free range for the most part.
ParticipantOK see your point on that, sure why not try NJ,
The point is a lot of people like to complain about the high cost of housing in CA, but few think of maybe relocating.
The issue is were not building enough to keep up with our growth (in SoCal) mainly due to zoning rules and worker shortages (even though our unemployment numbers are still fairly high).
ParticipantMove to a less interesting place,
Most of the US cities have NOT recovered from the RE slump and are still somewhat a bargain.
Try Texas.
I was listening to NPR about some Syrian refugees who were relocated and giving housing and Jobs in Indiana (or someplace I forgot the exact local), but they were really Mad because they wanted to be relocated to California.
A large part of the reason SoCal RE is so expensive is due to overzealous zoning.
ParticipantWell this much I will agree,
eventually they will start to build in mass (if and when unrealistic zoning rules start to fall in CA).
They will get greedy and over build, but until that time it’s going to be tough if you want to live in SoCal and or the bay area so it will be awhile IMO.
But if you want to move to TX Please feel free.
ParticipantWhat ever new home building is still only about half the normal pace for the last 30 or so years and we are in the middle of a household formation boom.
push comes to shove.
ParticipantSo why are the builders saying they cannot find enough people willing to commit to the trade?
ParticipantThere will be a lot of add on secondary jobs created.
But 6K well paying Jobs added to LA already good Jobs (and don’t believe everything your read, LA has a lot of wealthy people with great Jobs or careers).
ParticipantIt started in 1989 when Bush-1 started the unwinding of the defense spending that Reagan started (once the cold war ended).
It hit bottom in about 1994 after the Northridge earthquake (at least in L.A.), took until about 1999 to fully recover.
But IMO we are still early (about 1985) and it may not end the same way (unless we get world peace LOL).
They just started the B-3 in North LA so that will create a lot of good paying jobs (dang it should have bought something in Palmdale).
IMO the current high prices in Housing has a lot more to do with a lack of interest by millennials in the construction trade (or any manual labor trade), and at the same time millennials coming of age to start households. Construction was seem as a good Trade to be in back in the 80’s for the boomers.
IMO it has a lot more to do with the above than anything the Fed ever did etc…
ParticipantThat’s caused by lack of new housing being built and overzealous zoning (which would actually work to prevent a housing crash), BUT rents were very high in relation to income in 1985 as well.
There is just a heck of a lot of households being formed but no one wants to talk about that.
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