[The-Shoveler]

Dot.bomb-2.0 Don’t think it’s going happen (this year) unless Putin pulls start of WWII-2.0 in a big way (kind of already has the old play book well in progress though).

Unless something big international happens, I don’t see a crash coming, China seems to have figured out their conundrum.

I do think Dot.bomb-2.0 will happen at some point however just not yet.

[The-Shoveler]

IMO I don’t think we will see much of a decline, maybe 10-15%.

Besides if it weren’t for insider selling of FB and Google stocks CA would be broke LOL.

But I would not mind seeing a 40% hit right here so I could buy the S&P Index in my 401K and feel a bit more confident about it, Right now I am almost all cash.

[The-Shoveler]

From the few bits of analysis I was hearing Russia does not have a lot going for it other than Oil and Gas exports (which most the developed world will be becoming less and less dependent on IMO), OK maybe weapon sales as well.
The more of these expenses Russia takes on the more desperate they are likely to become. I don’t think they have the financial strength to gain back what they once were and will likely collapse again.
But we live in interesting times.

[The-Shoveler]

Start sarcasm
What FB has to be worth as much as Boeing and Ford put together, its’ a steal here is what I was hearing yesterday.
Besides I am still waiting for them to buy my phone app, I am a steal at 1 billion.
End sarcasm
Really I would like to see a 30-40% drop here but I don’t think we will see much before the fed starts hitting the print faster button (IMO anyway).

Doesn’t it give you the warm fuzzes to know that it’s basically the companies like FB and Google that are keeping our state out of BK.

[The-Shoveler]

[quote=FormerSanDiegan][quote=bibsoconner]
So if prices went down a lot, we could ride it out. Of course if house prices dropped 25%, I’d expect to see rents drop too! [/quote]

When prices dropped 25% + in the last downturn, rents barely declined.[/quote]

That’s what happens I guess when you have CPI tied to rents instead of owning.

[The-Shoveler]

just list it 50K over market,

who knows you may get lucky.

just kidding sort of.

But really I think right now the prime coastal areas are selling at a high premium (over peak in a lot of cases) compared to more inland and/or pedestrian areas that are still 20/30% below peak.

I am not sure that differential will hold up so now may be a good time to sell there and buy in the other area’s.

[The-Shoveler]

I think what flyer said makes sense as well, but to me unless you are thinking really really long term (20-40 years) or maybe to pass down to your children etc…

I think that once you turn it into a rental for 5 years you can kiss your tax free money away and you could also pass the new rental and assets as well.

There are buy and “NEVER SELL” types that do extremely well over a long term time frame as well.

Will we see the same appreciation in coastal SD over the next 30 years as the last 30 years ?

Not so sure IMO, some other areas may do some catching up.

[The-Shoveler]

I think I would go with what flu said,
You have a primary so take the tax free money now (expensive homes don’t usually pencil out well as rentals anyway)

Put some of it in a 2/2 condo or even a smaller 3/2 rental grade home a little further away.
buy some silver etc..

I really in good conscience cannot recommend stocks to anyone I used to own kmart stock (hey they have assets don’t they LOL).

Anyway never follow stock advice from me.

[The-Shoveler]

Agreed.

[The-Shoveler]

Month to Month is better for all involved I think.

I would imagine if one side or the other is unhappy it is best just to part ways as fast as possible.

[The-Shoveler]

You guys make me want to volunteer for the mars one colony.
I saw a guy pull in a very large grouper off the beach this weekend in SD BTW.

[The-Shoveler]

That’s the problem with living in SD,
If we go somewhere I end up missing taking a long walk on the beach that week.
Or I end up on some humid sweltering Island getting bit by mosquitoes just so I can go snorkeling a few times.
I vote staycation but I think the wife will not go for it.

[The-Shoveler]

Buying a primary was always an expensive proposition that did not seem to make sense in the short term.

Only lately has it seemed more reasonable compared to rents (well at least coming from L.A.).

Very few people I have ever known who sold their primary and waited very long to buy back (2005-2009 being an extreme aberration), have ever told me it was not the worse decision they ever made.
(I should have said most have told me it was the worse decision they ever made)

That’s coming from an Old Guy.

Anyway I think we are getting way off topic.

I would wager, ten years from now most who did buy in 2005-6 at the peak will not feel unhappy about it.

[The-Shoveler]

L.A. and North County SD is a little easier for me to relate to (I don’t really hang in South SD).

but when you look at places like San Gabriel, Arcadia, (A lot of other areas in L.A. that are getting too numerous to keep track of these days) even Riverside next to UCRS.

There is no way the home prices reflect local incomes.

paradise tax, was not here 20 years ago but it is here now LOL.

[The-Shoveler]

LOL, In places coastal SD people will also be more willing to pay more for a primary because they want to grab a piece of paradise for the long term, That why it getting to the point where you got to check the obituaries to see where the next home will come on the market,

Just kidding sort of.

Probably not a great Idea to sell just because prices have out grown rents in prime Coastal SD areas IMO, Just my two cents, but do what makes you feel right.

[Author]

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