Forum Replies Created
-
AuthorPosts
-
temeculaguy
ParticipantWe all know that median isn’t an accurate indicator but it is one of the more popular flavors of Kool-Aid. A few months back when all the numbers were bad except for median, all the bulls were clinging to the median. One by one, the Kool-Aid taps are running dry.
Of all the prognosticators, I keep replaying that quote from the CEO of one of the big builders when he said “2007 is going to suck.”
ParticipantWaiting Hawk may get those drinks ahead of schedule. You were right about French valley being easy but at this pace my guess of 12-15 months before it hits 92592 will end up long, it may get here before the year is out. There’s a stool at Kilarney’s with your name on it.
Bugs is right that some people will drive 5 more miles to save a 100k, that should help drive down the area they are driving from. It’s only a matter of time before wolf creek and redhawk have to slash prices because they are losing the few customers out there to French Valley. I visited a few of the models that I am looking at and no price declines yet (one even went up a couple thousand) but they just started building and haven’t actualy moved anyone in yet, by september when their first move ins are scheduled i wonder how many of those sold buttons will magically vanish.
ParticipantWaiting Hawk may get those drinks ahead of schedule. You were right about French valley being easy but at this pace my guess of 12-15 months before it hits 92592 will end up long, it may get here before the year is out. There’s a stool at Kilarney’s with your name on it.
Bugs is right that some people will drive 5 more miles to save a 100k, that should help drive down the area they are driving from. It’s only a matter of time before wolf creek and redhawk have to slash prices because they are losing the few customers out there to French Valley. I visited a few of the models that I am looking at and no price declines yet (one even went up a couple thousand) but they just started building and haven’t actualy moved anyone in yet, by september when their first move ins are scheduled i wonder how many of those sold buttons will magically vanish.
ParticipantConfused, you should rent. Get out while you still can and jump back in a year or two, you should be able to make a seamless jump (buying in the better area for close to what you sell for now). Things won’t likely fall 50% there but 10% a year for 2 years is very realistic.
Mostdmk, it may be too late for you. Since you can’t afford the payment, price aggresively. Check the other boards, Murrieta has fallen to pieces in the last two weeks. Builders are cutting prices by 20%+, in 100k chunks. There is an avalanche of foreclosures in the pipeline in Murrieta from the nationally publicized real estate scam there, it’s currently has the third highest rate of late mortgage payments in the state. Hurry.
ParticipantConfused, you should rent. Get out while you still can and jump back in a year or two, you should be able to make a seamless jump (buying in the better area for close to what you sell for now). Things won’t likely fall 50% there but 10% a year for 2 years is very realistic.
Mostdmk, it may be too late for you. Since you can’t afford the payment, price aggresively. Check the other boards, Murrieta has fallen to pieces in the last two weeks. Builders are cutting prices by 20%+, in 100k chunks. There is an avalanche of foreclosures in the pipeline in Murrieta from the nationally publicized real estate scam there, it’s currently has the third highest rate of late mortgage payments in the state. Hurry.
ParticipantSo it wasn’t a fatal wound after all JJ. Even though you need to buy, I’m glad you held off. As soon as the abysmal summer sales hit the media this fall it’s gonna take everything down a few notches. At least wait until September. Ah, September. Since the Cleveland Browns had a great draft so they may actually win a few games, the Chargers will regret firing Marty, a new season of 24 and home prices will be tanking. The glass is half full.
P.S. be tough, they may come after you with another offer since you may have been the only buyer they’ve seen in a while.
ParticipantSo it wasn’t a fatal wound after all JJ. Even though you need to buy, I’m glad you held off. As soon as the abysmal summer sales hit the media this fall it’s gonna take everything down a few notches. At least wait until September. Ah, September. Since the Cleveland Browns had a great draft so they may actually win a few games, the Chargers will regret firing Marty, a new season of 24 and home prices will be tanking. The glass is half full.
P.S. be tough, they may come after you with another offer since you may have been the only buyer they’ve seen in a while.
ParticipantThe wave is moving south as predicted. While I have never been a fan of KB, these are barely in the french valley, they are south of murrieta hot springs road. Unlike the dr horton’s that were the first to slash prices, these are in the temecula school district, they aren’t all the way up off scott road like horton and look to be close to Nicholas Rd and Chapparal High. Still too far north for me but I am blown away that is has moved close to town so quicly.
Holy crap, 2,675 sq ft. one story SFR for 399k and it’s not even summer. Move that thing five miles south and I would seriously be tempted. If you’ve got a house to sell in that area start buying your depends at costco because you are going to be craping your pants more and more as the builders undercut you by 25% or more.
ParticipantThe wave is moving south as predicted. While I have never been a fan of KB, these are barely in the french valley, they are south of murrieta hot springs road. Unlike the dr horton’s that were the first to slash prices, these are in the temecula school district, they aren’t all the way up off scott road like horton and look to be close to Nicholas Rd and Chapparal High. Still too far north for me but I am blown away that is has moved close to town so quicly.
Holy crap, 2,675 sq ft. one story SFR for 399k and it’s not even summer. Move that thing five miles south and I would seriously be tempted. If you’ve got a house to sell in that area start buying your depends at costco because you are going to be craping your pants more and more as the builders undercut you by 25% or more.
ParticipantWhat elementary school and the middle school? There’s really no good middle school north of the 78 in that area, washington and lincoln are predominately english learners from apartments on Postal way and the townsite area. If you are assigned to the elementary school on Valley, then it is one of the better ones. I know the area well and it is a nice semi-rural area that despite having a Vista zip code it is not in the city of Vista and is closer to North Twin Oaks area north of San marcos than Vista. I don’t know that street but it is one street away from Sugarbush, which is one of the gems of the North County so it should be fine. It’s all customs and nurseries, minimal traffic to the 78 and the 15, reminds me of Bonsall or Valley Center while being closer to civilization.
ParticipantWhat elementary school and the middle school? There’s really no good middle school north of the 78 in that area, washington and lincoln are predominately english learners from apartments on Postal way and the townsite area. If you are assigned to the elementary school on Valley, then it is one of the better ones. I know the area well and it is a nice semi-rural area that despite having a Vista zip code it is not in the city of Vista and is closer to North Twin Oaks area north of San marcos than Vista. I don’t know that street but it is one street away from Sugarbush, which is one of the gems of the North County so it should be fine. It’s all customs and nurseries, minimal traffic to the 78 and the 15, reminds me of Bonsall or Valley Center while being closer to civilization.
Participant23109 do you even have any contingencies? You weren’t selling another house, you qualify for the loan, you are buying the house you currently rent so there are no suprise defects. Depending how far into escrow you are, you may be risking more than your deposit and the seller in no idiot and works in the industry. I’d say you bought yourself a house. You made a decent deal of 25% off peak so you aren’t in too bad of shape but next year if you see the house you really wanted for less than you paid, blame your wife but don’t blame us, I can point to at least five threads of us trying to tell you to hold off at least untill the end of the summer.
Participant23109 do you even have any contingencies? You weren’t selling another house, you qualify for the loan, you are buying the house you currently rent so there are no suprise defects. Depending how far into escrow you are, you may be risking more than your deposit and the seller in no idiot and works in the industry. I’d say you bought yourself a house. You made a decent deal of 25% off peak so you aren’t in too bad of shape but next year if you see the house you really wanted for less than you paid, blame your wife but don’t blame us, I can point to at least five threads of us trying to tell you to hold off at least untill the end of the summer.
May 24, 2007 at 5:06 PM in reply to: Temecula: How long till you see a video like this there? #54896Participant23109, a lot of what you say is correct and many San Diegans have an opinion of Temecula that dates back a decade. I don’t have a negative opinion but I believe in the 50% drop. Not accross the board and not every house, but there will be examples and I want to find the example before Waiting Hawk does.
Here’s why the 50% drop will happen. In 1998 and 1999 the homes that were selling for 175 to 230 were not small houses and those same houses peaked in 2005 in the high 600’s to the high 700’s.
This is a model match of one my parents bought in 1999 for 213k (thier lot was better), today the match is listed for 690k
This is a model match of a house I bought in 1998 for 187k inclusive of options and lot premium, that model started at 165 in 1998. Things were taking off that year, it was the official bottom in the area and as they built the street I lived on, there was an increase of 5-10% per phase, I bought it when it was a dirt lot and was up 25% by the time I moved in. Zillow doesn’t show the 1998 sales prices but it is not a legend, ten years ago, almost no list price in this valley had a 2 at the beginning of the number. I sold last year. Today a model match is listed at 609k, in 2005/2006 at 600k it would have sold in a week, some may have sold in the 700’s
This is not the undesirable part of Temecula, these are both in Redhawk.
So to look at these two houses which sold for just under and just above 200k, to see them both rise to the 600’s is about tripling the price in 8/9 years. For them to fall to 350k would reflect a 50% drop from peak but still have gained more than 5% per year. Both those properties are hanging on to near peak prices but there are examples in the same development of 100-150k drops. There is one a few houses away from the 609k (he’s on his third realtor I believe) that is listed at 500k and has been on the market forever, soon it will list in the 400’s and we will be within striking range of 350k, voila, 50%
-
AuthorPosts