[temeculaguy]

Now those are some terms I would have never have put together “culturally and economically diverse” and “La Costa and Encinitas.”

I am afraid there is no easy way to break the news to you, socio economic diversity = crappy schools. You may find some cultural diversity in the better school districts but that diversity won’t come in the form of a large amount of spanish speakers aka english language learners. Poway, Carlsbad, Encinitas, La Costa, La Jolla, Rancho Bernardo and Scripps have some of the best schools in the county but I doubt you’ll find anyone use the word “diverse” when describing them. You will find all the races represented but upper and upper middle class neighborhoods for the most part have upper and upper middle class people. If you have to pick, pick the best school and just don’t teach your kid to be a racist or an elitist, perhaps mandate charity work as a family while they grow up.

Please read some of the other threads before you buy now or rent in one of those communities first, I feel like I have been transported back in time and I am watching someone buy a ticket on the titanic.

[temeculaguy]

Now those are some terms I would have never have put together “culturally and economically diverse” and “La Costa and Encinitas.”

I am afraid there is no easy way to break the news to you, socio economic diversity = crappy schools. You may find some cultural diversity in the better school districts but that diversity won’t come in the form of a large amount of spanish speakers aka english language learners. Poway, Carlsbad, Encinitas, La Costa, La Jolla, Rancho Bernardo and Scripps have some of the best schools in the county but I doubt you’ll find anyone use the word “diverse” when describing them. You will find all the races represented but upper and upper middle class neighborhoods for the most part have upper and upper middle class people. If you have to pick, pick the best school and just don’t teach your kid to be a racist or an elitist, perhaps mandate charity work as a family while they grow up.

Please read some of the other threads before you buy now or rent in one of those communities first, I feel like I have been transported back in time and I am watching someone buy a ticket on the titanic.

[temeculaguy]

4plex, you are right I did not calculate interest rate fluctuation nor did I even look at what a natural disaster or serious loss in employment would do to rents, I was simplifying it. I was actually thinking the 2/2 had a floor price of 130-150, not the 1/1.

Grey, don’t think you have ten years to save and it may be too optimistic to think you will be paying under market rent to buy from day one, those opportunities are rare. Just like the up cycle didn’t last forever despite popular opinion, nor will the down cycle. The overshoot time period can be a year or less so you need to be ready now and you need to be prepared to pay more than market rent for a few years in order to buy. My rule of thumb is that with 20% down and all closing costs paid upfront (not rolled in) it should be equal to market rent so the overage is the loss of interest on your downpayment. Another goal is to be paying 25% under market rent within seven years so if you choose to convert it to a rental there is enough cusion for it to always be cost nuetral or positive since you need the extra to cover repairs, vacancy, etc.

Don’t just hope it goes down, get ready for 12 months from now by deciding what you have saved and how much you need to save to meet a 20% on 150k=30k, you have 12-18 months to save a total of 30k or you may miss this one.

[temeculaguy]

4plex, you are right I did not calculate interest rate fluctuation nor did I even look at what a natural disaster or serious loss in employment would do to rents, I was simplifying it. I was actually thinking the 2/2 had a floor price of 130-150, not the 1/1.

Grey, don’t think you have ten years to save and it may be too optimistic to think you will be paying under market rent to buy from day one, those opportunities are rare. Just like the up cycle didn’t last forever despite popular opinion, nor will the down cycle. The overshoot time period can be a year or less so you need to be ready now and you need to be prepared to pay more than market rent for a few years in order to buy. My rule of thumb is that with 20% down and all closing costs paid upfront (not rolled in) it should be equal to market rent so the overage is the loss of interest on your downpayment. Another goal is to be paying 25% under market rent within seven years so if you choose to convert it to a rental there is enough cusion for it to always be cost nuetral or positive since you need the extra to cover repairs, vacancy, etc.

Don’t just hope it goes down, get ready for 12 months from now by deciding what you have saved and how much you need to save to meet a 20% on 150k=30k, you have 12-18 months to save a total of 30k or you may miss this one.

[temeculaguy]

You will need the other 64 cents to get fire insurance. Crispy trees in so cal, good call.

[temeculaguy]

You will need the other 64 cents to get fire insurance. Crispy trees in so cal, good call.

[temeculaguy]

The APN is 947783015 which is the tax assessor parcel number, both the county and the city have online GIS which is how I got it. The tax assesors site was down for maintenance due to the late hour but that is a good start, this is all public record and a lot of it is online. I did find that it didn’t list the tax bill or the owners name which I have never seen before but because this property is part of a criminal investigation and of media interest you may not find it online.

[temeculaguy]

The APN is 947783015 which is the tax assessor parcel number, both the county and the city have online GIS which is how I got it. The tax assesors site was down for maintenance due to the late hour but that is a good start, this is all public record and a lot of it is online. I did find that it didn’t list the tax bill or the owners name which I have never seen before but because this property is part of a criminal investigation and of media interest you may not find it online.

[temeculaguy]

you can go the auction itself but the odds are the bank will just get it back and the price will be outstanding loan, which in the case of that scandal will be inflated. Wait a few days and check zillow or go to the riverside county recorders office, the county offices in Temecula off winchester may have it. The other option will cost you three dollars, by going to the riverside county website and doing a grantee search by name you can buy the doccument. The problem is that you have to buy it based on the name and recording date and many of those people had multiple properties so you might buy the wrong one, they don’t have an address search but you should be able to get the name by checking the tax roll and you can do that with their GIS map module. I don’t know if Murrieta has one online, Temecula does as does the county but if it is in the city of Murrieta go to their website. If it was a normal property I could do it easily but this fraud case clouds a lot of it.

[temeculaguy]

you can go the auction itself but the odds are the bank will just get it back and the price will be outstanding loan, which in the case of that scandal will be inflated. Wait a few days and check zillow or go to the riverside county recorders office, the county offices in Temecula off winchester may have it. The other option will cost you three dollars, by going to the riverside county website and doing a grantee search by name you can buy the doccument. The problem is that you have to buy it based on the name and recording date and many of those people had multiple properties so you might buy the wrong one, they don’t have an address search but you should be able to get the name by checking the tax roll and you can do that with their GIS map module. I don’t know if Murrieta has one online, Temecula does as does the county but if it is in the city of Murrieta go to their website. If it was a normal property I could do it easily but this fraud case clouds a lot of it.

[temeculaguy]

You will get there, the pendulum always swings a little too far the other way for a short time so be patient, set your target price and stick to it. The rent multiplier will create a floor and a 1k a month rental will probably never go below 100k and probably will only spend a few months much below 150k before an investor or a renter decides it is close to a wash for them (depending on hoa/taxes being reasonable). Despite the vandals and the crime the numbers make too much sense at those levels. What I can say for sure is that they will not return to those sub 100k levels and I think those sub 40k prices may be misleading as they sometimes are fractional numbers of a multi-unit sale or a transfer between corporate divisions or relatives in order to keep the property taxes low. I could be wrong but even in the 1980’s it was hard to find a 2br for under 500/mo in the seediest areas making those a steal. Just think in terms of others, if you rent for 1,000 and can own for 1200 to 1400, after the tax credit it get real close to even and the average joe buys. If the purchase payment is double the rent and the opportunity of huge profits is no longer a near term reality the average joe continues to rent. If you see 130-150 ranges this winter, jump on it. Using this rent multiplier a poway or 4-s home that rents for 2k a month would be priced at 300k and even the most bearish would jump on that train.

[temeculaguy]

You will get there, the pendulum always swings a little too far the other way for a short time so be patient, set your target price and stick to it. The rent multiplier will create a floor and a 1k a month rental will probably never go below 100k and probably will only spend a few months much below 150k before an investor or a renter decides it is close to a wash for them (depending on hoa/taxes being reasonable). Despite the vandals and the crime the numbers make too much sense at those levels. What I can say for sure is that they will not return to those sub 100k levels and I think those sub 40k prices may be misleading as they sometimes are fractional numbers of a multi-unit sale or a transfer between corporate divisions or relatives in order to keep the property taxes low. I could be wrong but even in the 1980’s it was hard to find a 2br for under 500/mo in the seediest areas making those a steal. Just think in terms of others, if you rent for 1,000 and can own for 1200 to 1400, after the tax credit it get real close to even and the average joe buys. If the purchase payment is double the rent and the opportunity of huge profits is no longer a near term reality the average joe continues to rent. If you see 130-150 ranges this winter, jump on it. Using this rent multiplier a poway or 4-s home that rents for 2k a month would be priced at 300k and even the most bearish would jump on that train.

[temeculaguy]

As a commuter I check the traffic on KOGO daily and often catch Chowderhead while waiting for the traffic report. He has been increasingly angry over the past few months and has been lashing out at the UT of late, it’s as if he thinks everyone is out to get him. I keep hoping for him to lose it. I keep thinking of the movie “trading places” when the Duke brothers lose it and one of them yells on the floor of the stock exchange “turn the machines back on.”

[temeculaguy]

As a commuter I check the traffic on KOGO daily and often catch Chowderhead while waiting for the traffic report. He has been increasingly angry over the past few months and has been lashing out at the UT of late, it’s as if he thinks everyone is out to get him. I keep hoping for him to lose it. I keep thinking of the movie “trading places” when the Duke brothers lose it and one of them yells on the floor of the stock exchange “turn the machines back on.”

[temeculaguy]

While it seems like there may be more to the story because the banks have been stingy thus far, I think it is a sign of things to come with the banks. I’ve been tracking bank owned properties that have been on the market over 90 days and their numbers are increasing, albeit my info reflects only one zip code. They can’t hold out forever and they should be more informed than the average seller that there plenty more coming because they own them. The lenders are going to start getting nervous very soon and we will see more examples of drastic discounting on REO properties in the coming months.

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