[sunny88]

[quote=LAAFTERHOURS]200 per sq ft which means all those homes on fieldthorn would need to dump to 300 plus, the homes selling in the low 500s now in garden gate and garden path would need to drop to the low 400s (like this one http://www.sdlookup.com/MLS-080075819-17055_Ralphs_Ranch_Rd_San_Diego_Ca_92127)

This one on Albert is close – http://www.sdlookup.com/MLS-080074848-17066_Albert_Ave_San_Diego_Ca_92127

So if you look at the builders:

Chanteclair should be 530K – 650K

Maybeck should be Mid 500s to High 600s

Maybeck has its biggest model starting at about 200 per sq ft.

I would assume there are some big incentives too (upgrades). I would ask them to pay the MR – cant hurt. [/quote]

Agreed! Given the small lots of most of these homes the fair value is around $200 per sqft. before upgrades.

[sunny88]

[quote=LAAFTERHOURS]200 per sq ft which means all those homes on fieldthorn would need to dump to 300 plus, the homes selling in the low 500s now in garden gate and garden path would need to drop to the low 400s (like this one http://www.sdlookup.com/MLS-080075819-17055_Ralphs_Ranch_Rd_San_Diego_Ca_92127)

This one on Albert is close – http://www.sdlookup.com/MLS-080074848-17066_Albert_Ave_San_Diego_Ca_92127

So if you look at the builders:

Chanteclair should be 530K – 650K

Maybeck should be Mid 500s to High 600s

Maybeck has its biggest model starting at about 200 per sq ft.

I would assume there are some big incentives too (upgrades). I would ask them to pay the MR – cant hurt. [/quote]

Agreed! Given the small lots of most of these homes the fair value is around $200 per sqft. before upgrades.

[sunny88]

[quote=LAAFTERHOURS]200 per sq ft which means all those homes on fieldthorn would need to dump to 300 plus, the homes selling in the low 500s now in garden gate and garden path would need to drop to the low 400s (like this one http://www.sdlookup.com/MLS-080075819-17055_Ralphs_Ranch_Rd_San_Diego_Ca_92127)

This one on Albert is close – http://www.sdlookup.com/MLS-080074848-17066_Albert_Ave_San_Diego_Ca_92127

So if you look at the builders:

Chanteclair should be 530K – 650K

Maybeck should be Mid 500s to High 600s

Maybeck has its biggest model starting at about 200 per sq ft.

I would assume there are some big incentives too (upgrades). I would ask them to pay the MR – cant hurt. [/quote]

Agreed! Given the small lots of most of these homes the fair value is around $200 per sqft. before upgrades.

[sunny88]

[quote=SD Realtor]I have found a similar response with clients who I represented with these same builders that you had DA. Seems they were very resilient. The fact of the matter is that they have reduced the phases so substantially that they have created demand through reduction of inventory.

Contrary to what many piggs want or think, there is more buyer activity out in the market now then I have seen for a long time. Yes the buyers are more educated and looking for deals, but those who think there are no buyers are sorely mistaken. Thus it is easier now then it was 2 years ago for the sales offices to hold the line on pricing.

I agree SDNERD that it is still way overpriced up there. IMO not just the new homes but the resales, shorts and REOs.

My feeling on 4S is that it will decline in value and bottom out in the next 2-3 years. The depth will depend 100% on the employment picture and of course interest rates. [/quote]

I agree with you but what do you think is a reasonable price per sqft in 4S Ranch under current market conditions? Also, if there is so much activity, doesn’t it mean that the sellers can ask what they are getting right now?

[sunny88]

[quote=SD Realtor]I have found a similar response with clients who I represented with these same builders that you had DA. Seems they were very resilient. The fact of the matter is that they have reduced the phases so substantially that they have created demand through reduction of inventory.

Contrary to what many piggs want or think, there is more buyer activity out in the market now then I have seen for a long time. Yes the buyers are more educated and looking for deals, but those who think there are no buyers are sorely mistaken. Thus it is easier now then it was 2 years ago for the sales offices to hold the line on pricing.

I agree SDNERD that it is still way overpriced up there. IMO not just the new homes but the resales, shorts and REOs.

My feeling on 4S is that it will decline in value and bottom out in the next 2-3 years. The depth will depend 100% on the employment picture and of course interest rates. [/quote]

I agree with you but what do you think is a reasonable price per sqft in 4S Ranch under current market conditions? Also, if there is so much activity, doesn’t it mean that the sellers can ask what they are getting right now?

[sunny88]

[quote=SD Realtor]I have found a similar response with clients who I represented with these same builders that you had DA. Seems they were very resilient. The fact of the matter is that they have reduced the phases so substantially that they have created demand through reduction of inventory.

Contrary to what many piggs want or think, there is more buyer activity out in the market now then I have seen for a long time. Yes the buyers are more educated and looking for deals, but those who think there are no buyers are sorely mistaken. Thus it is easier now then it was 2 years ago for the sales offices to hold the line on pricing.

I agree SDNERD that it is still way overpriced up there. IMO not just the new homes but the resales, shorts and REOs.

My feeling on 4S is that it will decline in value and bottom out in the next 2-3 years. The depth will depend 100% on the employment picture and of course interest rates. [/quote]

I agree with you but what do you think is a reasonable price per sqft in 4S Ranch under current market conditions? Also, if there is so much activity, doesn’t it mean that the sellers can ask what they are getting right now?

[sunny88]

[quote=SD Realtor]I have found a similar response with clients who I represented with these same builders that you had DA. Seems they were very resilient. The fact of the matter is that they have reduced the phases so substantially that they have created demand through reduction of inventory.

Contrary to what many piggs want or think, there is more buyer activity out in the market now then I have seen for a long time. Yes the buyers are more educated and looking for deals, but those who think there are no buyers are sorely mistaken. Thus it is easier now then it was 2 years ago for the sales offices to hold the line on pricing.

I agree SDNERD that it is still way overpriced up there. IMO not just the new homes but the resales, shorts and REOs.

My feeling on 4S is that it will decline in value and bottom out in the next 2-3 years. The depth will depend 100% on the employment picture and of course interest rates. [/quote]

I agree with you but what do you think is a reasonable price per sqft in 4S Ranch under current market conditions? Also, if there is so much activity, doesn’t it mean that the sellers can ask what they are getting right now?

[sunny88]

[quote=SD Realtor]I have found a similar response with clients who I represented with these same builders that you had DA. Seems they were very resilient. The fact of the matter is that they have reduced the phases so substantially that they have created demand through reduction of inventory.

Contrary to what many piggs want or think, there is more buyer activity out in the market now then I have seen for a long time. Yes the buyers are more educated and looking for deals, but those who think there are no buyers are sorely mistaken. Thus it is easier now then it was 2 years ago for the sales offices to hold the line on pricing.

I agree SDNERD that it is still way overpriced up there. IMO not just the new homes but the resales, shorts and REOs.

My feeling on 4S is that it will decline in value and bottom out in the next 2-3 years. The depth will depend 100% on the employment picture and of course interest rates. [/quote]

I agree with you but what do you think is a reasonable price per sqft in 4S Ranch under current market conditions? Also, if there is so much activity, doesn’t it mean that the sellers can ask what they are getting right now?

[sunny88]

There is a new home on the market. It looks very nice but seems to be overpriced for this neighborhood….

http://www.sdlookup.com/MLS-090004157-3845_Sacramento_Dr_La_Mesa_Ca_91941

[sunny88]

There is a new home on the market. It looks very nice but seems to be overpriced for this neighborhood….

http://www.sdlookup.com/MLS-090004157-3845_Sacramento_Dr_La_Mesa_Ca_91941

[sunny88]

There is a new home on the market. It looks very nice but seems to be overpriced for this neighborhood….

http://www.sdlookup.com/MLS-090004157-3845_Sacramento_Dr_La_Mesa_Ca_91941

[sunny88]

There is a new home on the market. It looks very nice but seems to be overpriced for this neighborhood….

http://www.sdlookup.com/MLS-090004157-3845_Sacramento_Dr_La_Mesa_Ca_91941

[sunny88]

There is a new home on the market. It looks very nice but seems to be overpriced for this neighborhood….

http://www.sdlookup.com/MLS-090004157-3845_Sacramento_Dr_La_Mesa_Ca_91941

[sunny88]

[quote=lifeisgood]I look at articles on this site just about everyday. My wife and I will be closing on our new home in late February. We are super stoked being that it is our first house and all. We bought the plan three in Chanteclair which we will be trying to fill up with kids eventually. My wife wanted me to ask some of you experts in real estate about the possibility of our new house loosing a great deal of value or will it just stay stagnant for a while? From what I read on this site, it seems like some areas have lost so much value that they are close if not at the bottom. Do you all think that 4S is close to bottom or is there a lot of room to fall. We don’t mind too much as we will be staying in this house for at least 15+ years. We also understand that this is a risk. We just couldn’t pass up the deal we got on the house plus the interest rate that we locked. Thanks for your opinions in advance! [/quote]

Congratulations on your new home! I believe that as long as you don’t see your home as an investment for the short-term (i.e. time frame <10 years) you should be fine. The values will likely drop further, but it's almost impossible to buy at the bottom. You bought your house as a home for you and your family. I have been to 4S ranch many times and think that it is a nice area to raise a family. Once the housing market recovers (and it will!) the value of your home will go up. Nobody knows when the housing market will bottom but it looks like it will take another year or 2 before this happens here in SD.

[sunny88]

[quote=lifeisgood]I look at articles on this site just about everyday. My wife and I will be closing on our new home in late February. We are super stoked being that it is our first house and all. We bought the plan three in Chanteclair which we will be trying to fill up with kids eventually. My wife wanted me to ask some of you experts in real estate about the possibility of our new house loosing a great deal of value or will it just stay stagnant for a while? From what I read on this site, it seems like some areas have lost so much value that they are close if not at the bottom. Do you all think that 4S is close to bottom or is there a lot of room to fall. We don’t mind too much as we will be staying in this house for at least 15+ years. We also understand that this is a risk. We just couldn’t pass up the deal we got on the house plus the interest rate that we locked. Thanks for your opinions in advance! [/quote]

Congratulations on your new home! I believe that as long as you don’t see your home as an investment for the short-term (i.e. time frame <10 years) you should be fine. The values will likely drop further, but it's almost impossible to buy at the bottom. You bought your house as a home for you and your family. I have been to 4S ranch many times and think that it is a nice area to raise a family. Once the housing market recovers (and it will!) the value of your home will go up. Nobody knows when the housing market will bottom but it looks like it will take another year or 2 before this happens here in SD.

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