[stockstradr]

I strongly agree with the posts by 4plexowner and peterb, essentially warning everyone: “when you are sure this US stock market has bottomed, think again (because it might still have a very nasty leg down ahead of it)”

Just guessing here, but this is the future I envision:

I think US stocks will eventually come down to about 600 or 650 (S&P500) then I’ll jump to ride the expected nice fool’s rally, and sell as soon as it has come up say 20%. This will be sometime in 2009. Then after the mini-rally, I will get out of US stocks and stay out, but I will buy heavily into Chinese stocks when I see Shanghai index fally below 1200.

So I believe returns for US stocks will be horrible for many years to come.

[stockstradr]

I strongly agree with the posts by 4plexowner and peterb, essentially warning everyone: “when you are sure this US stock market has bottomed, think again (because it might still have a very nasty leg down ahead of it)”

Just guessing here, but this is the future I envision:

I think US stocks will eventually come down to about 600 or 650 (S&P500) then I’ll jump to ride the expected nice fool’s rally, and sell as soon as it has come up say 20%. This will be sometime in 2009. Then after the mini-rally, I will get out of US stocks and stay out, but I will buy heavily into Chinese stocks when I see Shanghai index fally below 1200.

So I believe returns for US stocks will be horrible for many years to come.

[stockstradr]

I strongly agree with the posts by 4plexowner and peterb, essentially warning everyone: “when you are sure this US stock market has bottomed, think again (because it might still have a very nasty leg down ahead of it)”

Just guessing here, but this is the future I envision:

I think US stocks will eventually come down to about 600 or 650 (S&P500) then I’ll jump to ride the expected nice fool’s rally, and sell as soon as it has come up say 20%. This will be sometime in 2009. Then after the mini-rally, I will get out of US stocks and stay out, but I will buy heavily into Chinese stocks when I see Shanghai index fally below 1200.

So I believe returns for US stocks will be horrible for many years to come.

[stockstradr]

OK, I’ll play.

I am fairly certain on these predictions:

* Within 12 months, unemployment exceeds 10% in CA
* ..and exceeds 8% average across America
* S&P500 drops to below 650 sometime in 2009
* During the next SEVEN years, inflation adjusted S&P500 does NOT exceed peak of Oct ’07
* Oil price exceeds $300/bbl within five years.
* Gold price exceeds $3000/ounce sometime within five years, and exceeds $1500/ounce within three yrs.
* At least two US automakers go bankrupt; cease operations, within two years.
* China’s stock market recovers much sooner (and more significantly) than US or Europe stock markets. However, the SSE Composite first craters below 1,500 (25% drop from present value!). (And I kind think it could fall to 1,000). Then it takes off like a rocket.
* Government intervention in real estate markets becomes so significant it creates a false rally of at least 10% on mean condo prices in San Diego within the next year.
* US dollar collapses by at least 50% from current highs relative to basket of major currencies, during the next five years. Over a ten-year period it collapses by at least 90% from today’s high. Deflating dollar will be the only option for USA to avoid defaulting on our debt payments.
* Within 36 months, we have US inflation AND 30-year mortgage rates both exceeding 12%
* Bubble in US Treasuries pops within twelve months, causing the 3-10 year US treasury funds to fall in value at least 30% off their peak values.

And now you learn just how pessimistic I am:
* Total US GDP contraction will exceed 8.0%, meaning worst economic downturn since the Great Depression. Yes, my GDP contraction estimate is at least twice what many respected economists are estimating (4%).

I’m rather guessing on these predictions:
* S&P500 ends 2009 at value BELOW 900!
* This will be an “L-shaped” recession/depression, meaning we fall off the cliff (which has already happened) and our economy gets stuck “waist deep in the Big Muddy” for at least FIVE years, w/option for ten years, Japan-style lost decade.

[stockstradr]

OK, I’ll play.

I am fairly certain on these predictions:

* Within 12 months, unemployment exceeds 10% in CA
* ..and exceeds 8% average across America
* S&P500 drops to below 650 sometime in 2009
* During the next SEVEN years, inflation adjusted S&P500 does NOT exceed peak of Oct ’07
* Oil price exceeds $300/bbl within five years.
* Gold price exceeds $3000/ounce sometime within five years, and exceeds $1500/ounce within three yrs.
* At least two US automakers go bankrupt; cease operations, within two years.
* China’s stock market recovers much sooner (and more significantly) than US or Europe stock markets. However, the SSE Composite first craters below 1,500 (25% drop from present value!). (And I kind think it could fall to 1,000). Then it takes off like a rocket.
* Government intervention in real estate markets becomes so significant it creates a false rally of at least 10% on mean condo prices in San Diego within the next year.
* US dollar collapses by at least 50% from current highs relative to basket of major currencies, during the next five years. Over a ten-year period it collapses by at least 90% from today’s high. Deflating dollar will be the only option for USA to avoid defaulting on our debt payments.
* Within 36 months, we have US inflation AND 30-year mortgage rates both exceeding 12%
* Bubble in US Treasuries pops within twelve months, causing the 3-10 year US treasury funds to fall in value at least 30% off their peak values.

And now you learn just how pessimistic I am:
* Total US GDP contraction will exceed 8.0%, meaning worst economic downturn since the Great Depression. Yes, my GDP contraction estimate is at least twice what many respected economists are estimating (4%).

I’m rather guessing on these predictions:
* S&P500 ends 2009 at value BELOW 900!
* This will be an “L-shaped” recession/depression, meaning we fall off the cliff (which has already happened) and our economy gets stuck “waist deep in the Big Muddy” for at least FIVE years, w/option for ten years, Japan-style lost decade.

[stockstradr]

OK, I’ll play.

I am fairly certain on these predictions:

* Within 12 months, unemployment exceeds 10% in CA
* ..and exceeds 8% average across America
* S&P500 drops to below 650 sometime in 2009
* During the next SEVEN years, inflation adjusted S&P500 does NOT exceed peak of Oct ’07
* Oil price exceeds $300/bbl within five years.
* Gold price exceeds $3000/ounce sometime within five years, and exceeds $1500/ounce within three yrs.
* At least two US automakers go bankrupt; cease operations, within two years.
* China’s stock market recovers much sooner (and more significantly) than US or Europe stock markets. However, the SSE Composite first craters below 1,500 (25% drop from present value!). (And I kind think it could fall to 1,000). Then it takes off like a rocket.
* Government intervention in real estate markets becomes so significant it creates a false rally of at least 10% on mean condo prices in San Diego within the next year.
* US dollar collapses by at least 50% from current highs relative to basket of major currencies, during the next five years. Over a ten-year period it collapses by at least 90% from today’s high. Deflating dollar will be the only option for USA to avoid defaulting on our debt payments.
* Within 36 months, we have US inflation AND 30-year mortgage rates both exceeding 12%
* Bubble in US Treasuries pops within twelve months, causing the 3-10 year US treasury funds to fall in value at least 30% off their peak values.

And now you learn just how pessimistic I am:
* Total US GDP contraction will exceed 8.0%, meaning worst economic downturn since the Great Depression. Yes, my GDP contraction estimate is at least twice what many respected economists are estimating (4%).

I’m rather guessing on these predictions:
* S&P500 ends 2009 at value BELOW 900!
* This will be an “L-shaped” recession/depression, meaning we fall off the cliff (which has already happened) and our economy gets stuck “waist deep in the Big Muddy” for at least FIVE years, w/option for ten years, Japan-style lost decade.

[stockstradr]

OK, I’ll play.

I am fairly certain on these predictions:

* Within 12 months, unemployment exceeds 10% in CA
* ..and exceeds 8% average across America
* S&P500 drops to below 650 sometime in 2009
* During the next SEVEN years, inflation adjusted S&P500 does NOT exceed peak of Oct ’07
* Oil price exceeds $300/bbl within five years.
* Gold price exceeds $3000/ounce sometime within five years, and exceeds $1500/ounce within three yrs.
* At least two US automakers go bankrupt; cease operations, within two years.
* China’s stock market recovers much sooner (and more significantly) than US or Europe stock markets. However, the SSE Composite first craters below 1,500 (25% drop from present value!). (And I kind think it could fall to 1,000). Then it takes off like a rocket.
* Government intervention in real estate markets becomes so significant it creates a false rally of at least 10% on mean condo prices in San Diego within the next year.
* US dollar collapses by at least 50% from current highs relative to basket of major currencies, during the next five years. Over a ten-year period it collapses by at least 90% from today’s high. Deflating dollar will be the only option for USA to avoid defaulting on our debt payments.
* Within 36 months, we have US inflation AND 30-year mortgage rates both exceeding 12%
* Bubble in US Treasuries pops within twelve months, causing the 3-10 year US treasury funds to fall in value at least 30% off their peak values.

And now you learn just how pessimistic I am:
* Total US GDP contraction will exceed 8.0%, meaning worst economic downturn since the Great Depression. Yes, my GDP contraction estimate is at least twice what many respected economists are estimating (4%).

I’m rather guessing on these predictions:
* S&P500 ends 2009 at value BELOW 900!
* This will be an “L-shaped” recession/depression, meaning we fall off the cliff (which has already happened) and our economy gets stuck “waist deep in the Big Muddy” for at least FIVE years, w/option for ten years, Japan-style lost decade.

[stockstradr]

OK, I’ll play.

I am fairly certain on these predictions:

* Within 12 months, unemployment exceeds 10% in CA
* ..and exceeds 8% average across America
* S&P500 drops to below 650 sometime in 2009
* During the next SEVEN years, inflation adjusted S&P500 does NOT exceed peak of Oct ’07
* Oil price exceeds $300/bbl within five years.
* Gold price exceeds $3000/ounce sometime within five years, and exceeds $1500/ounce within three yrs.
* At least two US automakers go bankrupt; cease operations, within two years.
* China’s stock market recovers much sooner (and more significantly) than US or Europe stock markets. However, the SSE Composite first craters below 1,500 (25% drop from present value!). (And I kind think it could fall to 1,000). Then it takes off like a rocket.
* Government intervention in real estate markets becomes so significant it creates a false rally of at least 10% on mean condo prices in San Diego within the next year.
* US dollar collapses by at least 50% from current highs relative to basket of major currencies, during the next five years. Over a ten-year period it collapses by at least 90% from today’s high. Deflating dollar will be the only option for USA to avoid defaulting on our debt payments.
* Within 36 months, we have US inflation AND 30-year mortgage rates both exceeding 12%
* Bubble in US Treasuries pops within twelve months, causing the 3-10 year US treasury funds to fall in value at least 30% off their peak values.

And now you learn just how pessimistic I am:
* Total US GDP contraction will exceed 8.0%, meaning worst economic downturn since the Great Depression. Yes, my GDP contraction estimate is at least twice what many respected economists are estimating (4%).

I’m rather guessing on these predictions:
* S&P500 ends 2009 at value BELOW 900!
* This will be an “L-shaped” recession/depression, meaning we fall off the cliff (which has already happened) and our economy gets stuck “waist deep in the Big Muddy” for at least FIVE years, w/option for ten years, Japan-style lost decade.

[stockstradr]

Another post for the whiners and flamers:

Let’s take the Bubble in US Treasuries.

Git off your butts and figure out how to make money off that. Or just sit back and watch me make money shorting that bubble. Take your pick.

But for sure it IS another money-making opportunity, that is so weird and extreme that it is relatively easy to make money from it.

Yet, I’ve seen pretty much ZERO in the way of ideas from forum members on how to make money off this US Treasury bubble.

Me? I’ve slowly added to my short position on the 7-10 year treasuries, now having built it to 3% of my portfolio.

Cautiously, now I’ll wait, and watch how the Treasuries react, and I’ll spend considerable time studying this question how to best make money on this. Then I’ll increase my position based on the markets and what I’ve learned.

And I’ll make money on it. Watch me.

[stockstradr]

Another post for the whiners and flamers:

Let’s take the Bubble in US Treasuries.

Git off your butts and figure out how to make money off that. Or just sit back and watch me make money shorting that bubble. Take your pick.

But for sure it IS another money-making opportunity, that is so weird and extreme that it is relatively easy to make money from it.

Yet, I’ve seen pretty much ZERO in the way of ideas from forum members on how to make money off this US Treasury bubble.

Me? I’ve slowly added to my short position on the 7-10 year treasuries, now having built it to 3% of my portfolio.

Cautiously, now I’ll wait, and watch how the Treasuries react, and I’ll spend considerable time studying this question how to best make money on this. Then I’ll increase my position based on the markets and what I’ve learned.

And I’ll make money on it. Watch me.

[stockstradr]

Another post for the whiners and flamers:

Let’s take the Bubble in US Treasuries.

Git off your butts and figure out how to make money off that. Or just sit back and watch me make money shorting that bubble. Take your pick.

But for sure it IS another money-making opportunity, that is so weird and extreme that it is relatively easy to make money from it.

Yet, I’ve seen pretty much ZERO in the way of ideas from forum members on how to make money off this US Treasury bubble.

Me? I’ve slowly added to my short position on the 7-10 year treasuries, now having built it to 3% of my portfolio.

Cautiously, now I’ll wait, and watch how the Treasuries react, and I’ll spend considerable time studying this question how to best make money on this. Then I’ll increase my position based on the markets and what I’ve learned.

And I’ll make money on it. Watch me.

[stockstradr]

Another post for the whiners and flamers:

Let’s take the Bubble in US Treasuries.

Git off your butts and figure out how to make money off that. Or just sit back and watch me make money shorting that bubble. Take your pick.

But for sure it IS another money-making opportunity, that is so weird and extreme that it is relatively easy to make money from it.

Yet, I’ve seen pretty much ZERO in the way of ideas from forum members on how to make money off this US Treasury bubble.

Me? I’ve slowly added to my short position on the 7-10 year treasuries, now having built it to 3% of my portfolio.

Cautiously, now I’ll wait, and watch how the Treasuries react, and I’ll spend considerable time studying this question how to best make money on this. Then I’ll increase my position based on the markets and what I’ve learned.

And I’ll make money on it. Watch me.

[stockstradr]

Another post for the whiners and flamers:

Let’s take the Bubble in US Treasuries.

Git off your butts and figure out how to make money off that. Or just sit back and watch me make money shorting that bubble. Take your pick.

But for sure it IS another money-making opportunity, that is so weird and extreme that it is relatively easy to make money from it.

Yet, I’ve seen pretty much ZERO in the way of ideas from forum members on how to make money off this US Treasury bubble.

Me? I’ve slowly added to my short position on the 7-10 year treasuries, now having built it to 3% of my portfolio.

Cautiously, now I’ll wait, and watch how the Treasuries react, and I’ll spend considerable time studying this question how to best make money on this. Then I’ll increase my position based on the markets and what I’ve learned.

And I’ll make money on it. Watch me.

[stockstradr]

Go ahead, nit pick all you want. However, I DO AGREE I do need to focus more on capital preservation

But I stand by my record of acheived gains this year.

Week-by-week, trade-by-trade, that’s how I built up what is now 50% YTD net appreciation across my (and my wife’s) retirement portfolio. I have no regrets and I’m having loads of fun doing this.

And along the way I make lots of mistakes, missed guesses, and the smartest move is to run for cover when markets go opposite of where you’ve bet.

peterb dumped his long positions this morning. That was SMART and even if this market turns around and starts heading up, peterb will still have been smart.

It is about protecting yourself from losses, responding to markets moving in unanticipated ways.

The world’s greatest hedge fund managers have written and interviewed about how they consider that, in some situations, GOING TO CASH is an appropriate and essential tool in the toolkit of a successful fund manager.

I woke up to find Oil FALLING and the overall stock market FALLING, double-trouble for my oil stocks.

I had already seen that take away 10% of what had been 30% average appreciations on those positions. I decided to take profts today, lock in that remaining 20% profit. I don’t regret selling everything today.

Personally I would respect some of the community on here MORE if people simply posted their trading/investing/speculating ideas (good or bad) AHEAD of the markts….instead of just nitpicking others good ideas.

I give credit to members like peterb, Chris_Scoreboard, TheBreeze, and others for taking the time to post ideas, and offer constructive criticism.

Now as for the whiners and flamers on here, spending your time on THAT will not get your portfolio to a 50% YTD gain in a market that’s falling 50%. You achieve good gains through hard work, week-by-week, trade-by-trade.

A closing comment:

ten days ago, oil was sitting at $40/bbl and gold was about $750/ounce. Oil stocks were at about five-year lows.

Now buying oil and gold at those prices is basically shooting fish in a barrel. So did most of the people on this forum miss that obvious opportunity and watch guys like me, peterb, and others make good money on those bets in just ten days?

The whiners and nitpickers on here should grow some balls, and try getting in the game and make some money, especially when the money is that easily made.

[stockstradr]

Go ahead, nit pick all you want. However, I DO AGREE I do need to focus more on capital preservation

But I stand by my record of acheived gains this year.

Week-by-week, trade-by-trade, that’s how I built up what is now 50% YTD net appreciation across my (and my wife’s) retirement portfolio. I have no regrets and I’m having loads of fun doing this.

And along the way I make lots of mistakes, missed guesses, and the smartest move is to run for cover when markets go opposite of where you’ve bet.

peterb dumped his long positions this morning. That was SMART and even if this market turns around and starts heading up, peterb will still have been smart.

It is about protecting yourself from losses, responding to markets moving in unanticipated ways.

The world’s greatest hedge fund managers have written and interviewed about how they consider that, in some situations, GOING TO CASH is an appropriate and essential tool in the toolkit of a successful fund manager.

I woke up to find Oil FALLING and the overall stock market FALLING, double-trouble for my oil stocks.

I had already seen that take away 10% of what had been 30% average appreciations on those positions. I decided to take profts today, lock in that remaining 20% profit. I don’t regret selling everything today.

Personally I would respect some of the community on here MORE if people simply posted their trading/investing/speculating ideas (good or bad) AHEAD of the markts….instead of just nitpicking others good ideas.

I give credit to members like peterb, Chris_Scoreboard, TheBreeze, and others for taking the time to post ideas, and offer constructive criticism.

Now as for the whiners and flamers on here, spending your time on THAT will not get your portfolio to a 50% YTD gain in a market that’s falling 50%. You achieve good gains through hard work, week-by-week, trade-by-trade.

A closing comment:

ten days ago, oil was sitting at $40/bbl and gold was about $750/ounce. Oil stocks were at about five-year lows.

Now buying oil and gold at those prices is basically shooting fish in a barrel. So did most of the people on this forum miss that obvious opportunity and watch guys like me, peterb, and others make good money on those bets in just ten days?

The whiners and nitpickers on here should grow some balls, and try getting in the game and make some money, especially when the money is that easily made.

[Author]

Posts