[stockstradr]

I am bullish on the dollar over the next few years due to long term cycle analysis, and am gearing up to buy this dip any day now…

This is one of the few of Scoreboard’s opinions that I am certain will be proven wrong within 24 months.

One need not look at cyclical trends of the dollar. Intead, just punch the numbers into your calculator: 1) The total amount of debt (known including unfunded oblications=SS, Medicare..etc, plus inevitable additional “emergency” expenditures) the US Fed must auction in the next 24 months. 2) The now insanely high ratio of our total national debt to GDP, where total debt must include various unfunded obligations: war, SS, Medicare.

Plus those nations that have previously bought hundreds of billions of US securities – mostly to manage their currency against the trade deficit now see the USA dramatically reducing our purchases of their exports (not keeping up our end of the bargain), plus they themselves are now in recession.

[stockstradr]

I am bullish on the dollar over the next few years due to long term cycle analysis, and am gearing up to buy this dip any day now…

This is one of the few of Scoreboard’s opinions that I am certain will be proven wrong within 24 months.

One need not look at cyclical trends of the dollar. Intead, just punch the numbers into your calculator: 1) The total amount of debt (known including unfunded oblications=SS, Medicare..etc, plus inevitable additional “emergency” expenditures) the US Fed must auction in the next 24 months. 2) The now insanely high ratio of our total national debt to GDP, where total debt must include various unfunded obligations: war, SS, Medicare.

Plus those nations that have previously bought hundreds of billions of US securities – mostly to manage their currency against the trade deficit now see the USA dramatically reducing our purchases of their exports (not keeping up our end of the bargain), plus they themselves are now in recession.

[stockstradr]

I am bullish on the dollar over the next few years due to long term cycle analysis, and am gearing up to buy this dip any day now…

This is one of the few of Scoreboard’s opinions that I am certain will be proven wrong within 24 months.

One need not look at cyclical trends of the dollar. Intead, just punch the numbers into your calculator: 1) The total amount of debt (known including unfunded oblications=SS, Medicare..etc, plus inevitable additional “emergency” expenditures) the US Fed must auction in the next 24 months. 2) The now insanely high ratio of our total national debt to GDP, where total debt must include various unfunded obligations: war, SS, Medicare.

Plus those nations that have previously bought hundreds of billions of US securities – mostly to manage their currency against the trade deficit now see the USA dramatically reducing our purchases of their exports (not keeping up our end of the bargain), plus they themselves are now in recession.

[stockstradr]

First a qualifier: my knowledge/experience is fairly weak on bond market/US treasuries; so take my opinion w/a grain of salt.

You wanna nice bullish TIPS article, here yah go:
http://online.wsj.com/article/SB122921944263804439.html

You feel better now? You know, just because it is stamped “Wall St. Journal” doesn’t mean it is God’s own Truth.
(Maybe the article is bullshit?)

If you directly hold US Treasuries (incl. TIPS), or a fund containing same, I suggest you urgently read up alternative opinions on the matter; further, if you kept holding TIPS into the last three months then you better wake up about current economic conditions (no offense intended).

Those are generally boring, safe, predictable securities…except in the most extreme economic conditions…which we now unfortunately find ourselves in!

The financial chaos created FEAR which drove an unprecedented increase in demand for US Treasuries, driving rates down and values UP, particularly in the last three months. And some would also attribute the demand increase to possibility that much (most) of the trillions of fiscal stimulus given to banks (to lend) has not been lent but instead used (by those same banks) to buy US Treasuries (to build up their capital ratios without adding risk)

The yield on the 30-year has fallen off a cliff, in only a couple months, from 4.5% down to 3%. The 3-month has gone completely insane, with buyers PAYING the US government to hold their money. Similarly dramatic convulsions have been seen in two, 7, and 10-year Treasuries.

This has been GREAT for pretty much all holders of US Treasuries, except for you unfortunate TIPS holders. (sorry.)

Funds/ETF’s of one to two-year notes climbed ~4% since June; increasingly better have been the 7-10 year Treasuries climbed 11% since mid-Oct; the 10-20 year Treasuries funds jumped 16% since early Nov; the 20+ Treasury funds climbed 18% (holy shit!) since mid-Nov.

Yet the TIPS funds collapsed about 11% since mid-Sept. (sorry.) You have reason to worry.

A year ago, economists were still debating if the economic downturn would be inflationary (“stagflation”), or deflationary (“Uh oh, look out below!”).

In July, commodities begin their own cliff dive, resolving that question. Not to mention the CPI diving down. So three months ago, any economist still debating the inflation/deflation question should have fired himself. (So why do moron pundits keep appearing on CNN / CNBC / Bloomberg?)

KEY POINT: never take your eyes off the economic fundamentals. By Sept (or Aug) it had become obvious this worst-in-fifty-years conomic downturn will be harshly deflationary. I would argue sharp minds saw it coming far earlier! Anyway, deflation: that’s why your TIPS have been hammered, and this WILL CONTINUE as deflation will worsen.

Ah, but that’s not what you should fear most; you should fear the popping of the bubble in US Treasuries. I think that will damage your TIPS far more severely and far earlier than will the inevitable inflation come in to save your TIPS yields.

My advice: dump all TIPS now ahead of the bubble, and before more deflation shows up.

Then we have the argument for then buying TIPS in the magic fleeting moment (you hope will occur) between the crash of the US Treasures bubble, and the onset of massive inflation.

But TIPS are based upon the CPI, and the CPI is a BULLSHIT under-reporting of inflation, to conspire to keep the truth (of real inflation numbers) from the American Public, and far more importantly: our government will soon scale up its conspiracy to defraud holders of US treasuries by deflating the dollar so to pay back its debt with ever more worthless currency (as opposed to OFFICIALLY going BANKRUPT). And that requires they support their conspiracy by feeding the World totally bullshit CPI numbers!

Now: re-read that last paragraph. Let it seep into your brain.

TIPS might have been good for the hyper-inflationary years ahead, if our government planned to play fair on WHAT is real inflation; however, it doesn’t plan to play fair!

I think you shouldn’t play fair either. Don’t be a patriot when it comes to the US Dollar.

You should short the US dollar, or at least favor others. Do that either by moving your money into the alternative currency of your choice (that is Most Likely to Succeed as the new World’s Reserve Currency)…

OR you could wait until you think deflation has given its last beating to gold prices, then you load up on gold.

I prefer the latter option. I’m also building a short position against US Treasuries, but that is a complicated move you should stay away from.

Now, nobody really knows WHEN the World is going to turn its back (or some of its favor) away from the US dollar and US treasuries. I rather think it will NOT happen within the next few months; it could initiate in 2009, and I’m certain it will initiate within 24 months. I base these estimates upon common sense and my calculator showing me how much dept the US has to auction in the next 24 months!

Those are my tips on TIPS.

[stockstradr]

First a qualifier: my knowledge/experience is fairly weak on bond market/US treasuries; so take my opinion w/a grain of salt.

You wanna nice bullish TIPS article, here yah go:
http://online.wsj.com/article/SB122921944263804439.html

You feel better now? You know, just because it is stamped “Wall St. Journal” doesn’t mean it is God’s own Truth.
(Maybe the article is bullshit?)

If you directly hold US Treasuries (incl. TIPS), or a fund containing same, I suggest you urgently read up alternative opinions on the matter; further, if you kept holding TIPS into the last three months then you better wake up about current economic conditions (no offense intended).

Those are generally boring, safe, predictable securities…except in the most extreme economic conditions…which we now unfortunately find ourselves in!

The financial chaos created FEAR which drove an unprecedented increase in demand for US Treasuries, driving rates down and values UP, particularly in the last three months. And some would also attribute the demand increase to possibility that much (most) of the trillions of fiscal stimulus given to banks (to lend) has not been lent but instead used (by those same banks) to buy US Treasuries (to build up their capital ratios without adding risk)

The yield on the 30-year has fallen off a cliff, in only a couple months, from 4.5% down to 3%. The 3-month has gone completely insane, with buyers PAYING the US government to hold their money. Similarly dramatic convulsions have been seen in two, 7, and 10-year Treasuries.

This has been GREAT for pretty much all holders of US Treasuries, except for you unfortunate TIPS holders. (sorry.)

Funds/ETF’s of one to two-year notes climbed ~4% since June; increasingly better have been the 7-10 year Treasuries climbed 11% since mid-Oct; the 10-20 year Treasuries funds jumped 16% since early Nov; the 20+ Treasury funds climbed 18% (holy shit!) since mid-Nov.

Yet the TIPS funds collapsed about 11% since mid-Sept. (sorry.) You have reason to worry.

A year ago, economists were still debating if the economic downturn would be inflationary (“stagflation”), or deflationary (“Uh oh, look out below!”).

In July, commodities begin their own cliff dive, resolving that question. Not to mention the CPI diving down. So three months ago, any economist still debating the inflation/deflation question should have fired himself. (So why do moron pundits keep appearing on CNN / CNBC / Bloomberg?)

KEY POINT: never take your eyes off the economic fundamentals. By Sept (or Aug) it had become obvious this worst-in-fifty-years conomic downturn will be harshly deflationary. I would argue sharp minds saw it coming far earlier! Anyway, deflation: that’s why your TIPS have been hammered, and this WILL CONTINUE as deflation will worsen.

Ah, but that’s not what you should fear most; you should fear the popping of the bubble in US Treasuries. I think that will damage your TIPS far more severely and far earlier than will the inevitable inflation come in to save your TIPS yields.

My advice: dump all TIPS now ahead of the bubble, and before more deflation shows up.

Then we have the argument for then buying TIPS in the magic fleeting moment (you hope will occur) between the crash of the US Treasures bubble, and the onset of massive inflation.

But TIPS are based upon the CPI, and the CPI is a BULLSHIT under-reporting of inflation, to conspire to keep the truth (of real inflation numbers) from the American Public, and far more importantly: our government will soon scale up its conspiracy to defraud holders of US treasuries by deflating the dollar so to pay back its debt with ever more worthless currency (as opposed to OFFICIALLY going BANKRUPT). And that requires they support their conspiracy by feeding the World totally bullshit CPI numbers!

Now: re-read that last paragraph. Let it seep into your brain.

TIPS might have been good for the hyper-inflationary years ahead, if our government planned to play fair on WHAT is real inflation; however, it doesn’t plan to play fair!

I think you shouldn’t play fair either. Don’t be a patriot when it comes to the US Dollar.

You should short the US dollar, or at least favor others. Do that either by moving your money into the alternative currency of your choice (that is Most Likely to Succeed as the new World’s Reserve Currency)…

OR you could wait until you think deflation has given its last beating to gold prices, then you load up on gold.

I prefer the latter option. I’m also building a short position against US Treasuries, but that is a complicated move you should stay away from.

Now, nobody really knows WHEN the World is going to turn its back (or some of its favor) away from the US dollar and US treasuries. I rather think it will NOT happen within the next few months; it could initiate in 2009, and I’m certain it will initiate within 24 months. I base these estimates upon common sense and my calculator showing me how much dept the US has to auction in the next 24 months!

Those are my tips on TIPS.

[stockstradr]

First a qualifier: my knowledge/experience is fairly weak on bond market/US treasuries; so take my opinion w/a grain of salt.

You wanna nice bullish TIPS article, here yah go:
http://online.wsj.com/article/SB122921944263804439.html

You feel better now? You know, just because it is stamped “Wall St. Journal” doesn’t mean it is God’s own Truth.
(Maybe the article is bullshit?)

If you directly hold US Treasuries (incl. TIPS), or a fund containing same, I suggest you urgently read up alternative opinions on the matter; further, if you kept holding TIPS into the last three months then you better wake up about current economic conditions (no offense intended).

Those are generally boring, safe, predictable securities…except in the most extreme economic conditions…which we now unfortunately find ourselves in!

The financial chaos created FEAR which drove an unprecedented increase in demand for US Treasuries, driving rates down and values UP, particularly in the last three months. And some would also attribute the demand increase to possibility that much (most) of the trillions of fiscal stimulus given to banks (to lend) has not been lent but instead used (by those same banks) to buy US Treasuries (to build up their capital ratios without adding risk)

The yield on the 30-year has fallen off a cliff, in only a couple months, from 4.5% down to 3%. The 3-month has gone completely insane, with buyers PAYING the US government to hold their money. Similarly dramatic convulsions have been seen in two, 7, and 10-year Treasuries.

This has been GREAT for pretty much all holders of US Treasuries, except for you unfortunate TIPS holders. (sorry.)

Funds/ETF’s of one to two-year notes climbed ~4% since June; increasingly better have been the 7-10 year Treasuries climbed 11% since mid-Oct; the 10-20 year Treasuries funds jumped 16% since early Nov; the 20+ Treasury funds climbed 18% (holy shit!) since mid-Nov.

Yet the TIPS funds collapsed about 11% since mid-Sept. (sorry.) You have reason to worry.

A year ago, economists were still debating if the economic downturn would be inflationary (“stagflation”), or deflationary (“Uh oh, look out below!”).

In July, commodities begin their own cliff dive, resolving that question. Not to mention the CPI diving down. So three months ago, any economist still debating the inflation/deflation question should have fired himself. (So why do moron pundits keep appearing on CNN / CNBC / Bloomberg?)

KEY POINT: never take your eyes off the economic fundamentals. By Sept (or Aug) it had become obvious this worst-in-fifty-years conomic downturn will be harshly deflationary. I would argue sharp minds saw it coming far earlier! Anyway, deflation: that’s why your TIPS have been hammered, and this WILL CONTINUE as deflation will worsen.

Ah, but that’s not what you should fear most; you should fear the popping of the bubble in US Treasuries. I think that will damage your TIPS far more severely and far earlier than will the inevitable inflation come in to save your TIPS yields.

My advice: dump all TIPS now ahead of the bubble, and before more deflation shows up.

Then we have the argument for then buying TIPS in the magic fleeting moment (you hope will occur) between the crash of the US Treasures bubble, and the onset of massive inflation.

But TIPS are based upon the CPI, and the CPI is a BULLSHIT under-reporting of inflation, to conspire to keep the truth (of real inflation numbers) from the American Public, and far more importantly: our government will soon scale up its conspiracy to defraud holders of US treasuries by deflating the dollar so to pay back its debt with ever more worthless currency (as opposed to OFFICIALLY going BANKRUPT). And that requires they support their conspiracy by feeding the World totally bullshit CPI numbers!

Now: re-read that last paragraph. Let it seep into your brain.

TIPS might have been good for the hyper-inflationary years ahead, if our government planned to play fair on WHAT is real inflation; however, it doesn’t plan to play fair!

I think you shouldn’t play fair either. Don’t be a patriot when it comes to the US Dollar.

You should short the US dollar, or at least favor others. Do that either by moving your money into the alternative currency of your choice (that is Most Likely to Succeed as the new World’s Reserve Currency)…

OR you could wait until you think deflation has given its last beating to gold prices, then you load up on gold.

I prefer the latter option. I’m also building a short position against US Treasuries, but that is a complicated move you should stay away from.

Now, nobody really knows WHEN the World is going to turn its back (or some of its favor) away from the US dollar and US treasuries. I rather think it will NOT happen within the next few months; it could initiate in 2009, and I’m certain it will initiate within 24 months. I base these estimates upon common sense and my calculator showing me how much dept the US has to auction in the next 24 months!

Those are my tips on TIPS.

[stockstradr]

First a qualifier: my knowledge/experience is fairly weak on bond market/US treasuries; so take my opinion w/a grain of salt.

You wanna nice bullish TIPS article, here yah go:
http://online.wsj.com/article/SB122921944263804439.html

You feel better now? You know, just because it is stamped “Wall St. Journal” doesn’t mean it is God’s own Truth.
(Maybe the article is bullshit?)

If you directly hold US Treasuries (incl. TIPS), or a fund containing same, I suggest you urgently read up alternative opinions on the matter; further, if you kept holding TIPS into the last three months then you better wake up about current economic conditions (no offense intended).

Those are generally boring, safe, predictable securities…except in the most extreme economic conditions…which we now unfortunately find ourselves in!

The financial chaos created FEAR which drove an unprecedented increase in demand for US Treasuries, driving rates down and values UP, particularly in the last three months. And some would also attribute the demand increase to possibility that much (most) of the trillions of fiscal stimulus given to banks (to lend) has not been lent but instead used (by those same banks) to buy US Treasuries (to build up their capital ratios without adding risk)

The yield on the 30-year has fallen off a cliff, in only a couple months, from 4.5% down to 3%. The 3-month has gone completely insane, with buyers PAYING the US government to hold their money. Similarly dramatic convulsions have been seen in two, 7, and 10-year Treasuries.

This has been GREAT for pretty much all holders of US Treasuries, except for you unfortunate TIPS holders. (sorry.)

Funds/ETF’s of one to two-year notes climbed ~4% since June; increasingly better have been the 7-10 year Treasuries climbed 11% since mid-Oct; the 10-20 year Treasuries funds jumped 16% since early Nov; the 20+ Treasury funds climbed 18% (holy shit!) since mid-Nov.

Yet the TIPS funds collapsed about 11% since mid-Sept. (sorry.) You have reason to worry.

A year ago, economists were still debating if the economic downturn would be inflationary (“stagflation”), or deflationary (“Uh oh, look out below!”).

In July, commodities begin their own cliff dive, resolving that question. Not to mention the CPI diving down. So three months ago, any economist still debating the inflation/deflation question should have fired himself. (So why do moron pundits keep appearing on CNN / CNBC / Bloomberg?)

KEY POINT: never take your eyes off the economic fundamentals. By Sept (or Aug) it had become obvious this worst-in-fifty-years conomic downturn will be harshly deflationary. I would argue sharp minds saw it coming far earlier! Anyway, deflation: that’s why your TIPS have been hammered, and this WILL CONTINUE as deflation will worsen.

Ah, but that’s not what you should fear most; you should fear the popping of the bubble in US Treasuries. I think that will damage your TIPS far more severely and far earlier than will the inevitable inflation come in to save your TIPS yields.

My advice: dump all TIPS now ahead of the bubble, and before more deflation shows up.

Then we have the argument for then buying TIPS in the magic fleeting moment (you hope will occur) between the crash of the US Treasures bubble, and the onset of massive inflation.

But TIPS are based upon the CPI, and the CPI is a BULLSHIT under-reporting of inflation, to conspire to keep the truth (of real inflation numbers) from the American Public, and far more importantly: our government will soon scale up its conspiracy to defraud holders of US treasuries by deflating the dollar so to pay back its debt with ever more worthless currency (as opposed to OFFICIALLY going BANKRUPT). And that requires they support their conspiracy by feeding the World totally bullshit CPI numbers!

Now: re-read that last paragraph. Let it seep into your brain.

TIPS might have been good for the hyper-inflationary years ahead, if our government planned to play fair on WHAT is real inflation; however, it doesn’t plan to play fair!

I think you shouldn’t play fair either. Don’t be a patriot when it comes to the US Dollar.

You should short the US dollar, or at least favor others. Do that either by moving your money into the alternative currency of your choice (that is Most Likely to Succeed as the new World’s Reserve Currency)…

OR you could wait until you think deflation has given its last beating to gold prices, then you load up on gold.

I prefer the latter option. I’m also building a short position against US Treasuries, but that is a complicated move you should stay away from.

Now, nobody really knows WHEN the World is going to turn its back (or some of its favor) away from the US dollar and US treasuries. I rather think it will NOT happen within the next few months; it could initiate in 2009, and I’m certain it will initiate within 24 months. I base these estimates upon common sense and my calculator showing me how much dept the US has to auction in the next 24 months!

Those are my tips on TIPS.

[stockstradr]

First a qualifier: my knowledge/experience is fairly weak on bond market/US treasuries; so take my opinion w/a grain of salt.

You wanna nice bullish TIPS article, here yah go:
http://online.wsj.com/article/SB122921944263804439.html

You feel better now? You know, just because it is stamped “Wall St. Journal” doesn’t mean it is God’s own Truth.
(Maybe the article is bullshit?)

If you directly hold US Treasuries (incl. TIPS), or a fund containing same, I suggest you urgently read up alternative opinions on the matter; further, if you kept holding TIPS into the last three months then you better wake up about current economic conditions (no offense intended).

Those are generally boring, safe, predictable securities…except in the most extreme economic conditions…which we now unfortunately find ourselves in!

The financial chaos created FEAR which drove an unprecedented increase in demand for US Treasuries, driving rates down and values UP, particularly in the last three months. And some would also attribute the demand increase to possibility that much (most) of the trillions of fiscal stimulus given to banks (to lend) has not been lent but instead used (by those same banks) to buy US Treasuries (to build up their capital ratios without adding risk)

The yield on the 30-year has fallen off a cliff, in only a couple months, from 4.5% down to 3%. The 3-month has gone completely insane, with buyers PAYING the US government to hold their money. Similarly dramatic convulsions have been seen in two, 7, and 10-year Treasuries.

This has been GREAT for pretty much all holders of US Treasuries, except for you unfortunate TIPS holders. (sorry.)

Funds/ETF’s of one to two-year notes climbed ~4% since June; increasingly better have been the 7-10 year Treasuries climbed 11% since mid-Oct; the 10-20 year Treasuries funds jumped 16% since early Nov; the 20+ Treasury funds climbed 18% (holy shit!) since mid-Nov.

Yet the TIPS funds collapsed about 11% since mid-Sept. (sorry.) You have reason to worry.

A year ago, economists were still debating if the economic downturn would be inflationary (“stagflation”), or deflationary (“Uh oh, look out below!”).

In July, commodities begin their own cliff dive, resolving that question. Not to mention the CPI diving down. So three months ago, any economist still debating the inflation/deflation question should have fired himself. (So why do moron pundits keep appearing on CNN / CNBC / Bloomberg?)

KEY POINT: never take your eyes off the economic fundamentals. By Sept (or Aug) it had become obvious this worst-in-fifty-years conomic downturn will be harshly deflationary. I would argue sharp minds saw it coming far earlier! Anyway, deflation: that’s why your TIPS have been hammered, and this WILL CONTINUE as deflation will worsen.

Ah, but that’s not what you should fear most; you should fear the popping of the bubble in US Treasuries. I think that will damage your TIPS far more severely and far earlier than will the inevitable inflation come in to save your TIPS yields.

My advice: dump all TIPS now ahead of the bubble, and before more deflation shows up.

Then we have the argument for then buying TIPS in the magic fleeting moment (you hope will occur) between the crash of the US Treasures bubble, and the onset of massive inflation.

But TIPS are based upon the CPI, and the CPI is a BULLSHIT under-reporting of inflation, to conspire to keep the truth (of real inflation numbers) from the American Public, and far more importantly: our government will soon scale up its conspiracy to defraud holders of US treasuries by deflating the dollar so to pay back its debt with ever more worthless currency (as opposed to OFFICIALLY going BANKRUPT). And that requires they support their conspiracy by feeding the World totally bullshit CPI numbers!

Now: re-read that last paragraph. Let it seep into your brain.

TIPS might have been good for the hyper-inflationary years ahead, if our government planned to play fair on WHAT is real inflation; however, it doesn’t plan to play fair!

I think you shouldn’t play fair either. Don’t be a patriot when it comes to the US Dollar.

You should short the US dollar, or at least favor others. Do that either by moving your money into the alternative currency of your choice (that is Most Likely to Succeed as the new World’s Reserve Currency)…

OR you could wait until you think deflation has given its last beating to gold prices, then you load up on gold.

I prefer the latter option. I’m also building a short position against US Treasuries, but that is a complicated move you should stay away from.

Now, nobody really knows WHEN the World is going to turn its back (or some of its favor) away from the US dollar and US treasuries. I rather think it will NOT happen within the next few months; it could initiate in 2009, and I’m certain it will initiate within 24 months. I base these estimates upon common sense and my calculator showing me how much dept the US has to auction in the next 24 months!

Those are my tips on TIPS.

[stockstradr]

This is the kind of thread that makes me glad I read Piggington.com tonight. A thread with very smart fellow members writing brilliant posts, particularly in this thread.

And of course it wouldn’t be Piggington.com unless we have (as we do) at least one or two obligatory morons entertaining us with THEIR posts. (You don’t know who you are, but WE know who you are!) Ah, but alas, it is all part of the Grande Parade of opinion

[stockstradr]

This is the kind of thread that makes me glad I read Piggington.com tonight. A thread with very smart fellow members writing brilliant posts, particularly in this thread.

And of course it wouldn’t be Piggington.com unless we have (as we do) at least one or two obligatory morons entertaining us with THEIR posts. (You don’t know who you are, but WE know who you are!) Ah, but alas, it is all part of the Grande Parade of opinion

[stockstradr]

This is the kind of thread that makes me glad I read Piggington.com tonight. A thread with very smart fellow members writing brilliant posts, particularly in this thread.

And of course it wouldn’t be Piggington.com unless we have (as we do) at least one or two obligatory morons entertaining us with THEIR posts. (You don’t know who you are, but WE know who you are!) Ah, but alas, it is all part of the Grande Parade of opinion

[stockstradr]

This is the kind of thread that makes me glad I read Piggington.com tonight. A thread with very smart fellow members writing brilliant posts, particularly in this thread.

And of course it wouldn’t be Piggington.com unless we have (as we do) at least one or two obligatory morons entertaining us with THEIR posts. (You don’t know who you are, but WE know who you are!) Ah, but alas, it is all part of the Grande Parade of opinion

[stockstradr]

This is the kind of thread that makes me glad I read Piggington.com tonight. A thread with very smart fellow members writing brilliant posts, particularly in this thread.

And of course it wouldn’t be Piggington.com unless we have (as we do) at least one or two obligatory morons entertaining us with THEIR posts. (You don’t know who you are, but WE know who you are!) Ah, but alas, it is all part of the Grande Parade of opinion

[stockstradr]

I strongly agree with the posts by 4plexowner and peterb, essentially warning everyone: “when you are sure this US stock market has bottomed, think again (because it might still have a very nasty leg down ahead of it)”

Just guessing here, but this is the future I envision:

I think US stocks will eventually come down to about 600 or 650 (S&P500) then I’ll jump to ride the expected nice fool’s rally, and sell as soon as it has come up say 20%. This will be sometime in 2009. Then after the mini-rally, I will get out of US stocks and stay out, but I will buy heavily into Chinese stocks when I see Shanghai index fally below 1200.

So I believe returns for US stocks will be horrible for many years to come.

[stockstradr]

I strongly agree with the posts by 4plexowner and peterb, essentially warning everyone: “when you are sure this US stock market has bottomed, think again (because it might still have a very nasty leg down ahead of it)”

Just guessing here, but this is the future I envision:

I think US stocks will eventually come down to about 600 or 650 (S&P500) then I’ll jump to ride the expected nice fool’s rally, and sell as soon as it has come up say 20%. This will be sometime in 2009. Then after the mini-rally, I will get out of US stocks and stay out, but I will buy heavily into Chinese stocks when I see Shanghai index fally below 1200.

So I believe returns for US stocks will be horrible for many years to come.

[Author]

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