[stockstradr]

Just discovered while trying to cure insomnia with late night browsing:

http://market-ticker.denninger.net/authors/2-Karl-Denninger

This appears to be at least three parts brilliant opinions also mixed with one part posts of complete lunacy.

[stockstradr]

Just discovered while trying to cure insomnia with late night browsing:

http://market-ticker.denninger.net/authors/2-Karl-Denninger

This appears to be at least three parts brilliant opinions also mixed with one part posts of complete lunacy.

[stockstradr]

Just discovered while trying to cure insomnia with late night browsing:

http://market-ticker.denninger.net/authors/2-Karl-Denninger

This appears to be at least three parts brilliant opinions also mixed with one part posts of complete lunacy.

[stockstradr]

I believe this “rumor” could be for real. Scary and signs of things to come in 2009.

At least MS has the class to wait until AFTER the holidays, unlike companies like Motorola which gave ALL its employees a nasty pre-Christmas 17-Dec letter (horrible timing) where they halted all raises/cost-of-living increases, suspended all company matching contributions to the Motorola 401(k) Plan, and permanently FROZE all future pension plan benefit accruals, and rather intimated at future layoffs to come. That’s a nice Merry Christmas.

[stockstradr]

I believe this “rumor” could be for real. Scary and signs of things to come in 2009.

At least MS has the class to wait until AFTER the holidays, unlike companies like Motorola which gave ALL its employees a nasty pre-Christmas 17-Dec letter (horrible timing) where they halted all raises/cost-of-living increases, suspended all company matching contributions to the Motorola 401(k) Plan, and permanently FROZE all future pension plan benefit accruals, and rather intimated at future layoffs to come. That’s a nice Merry Christmas.

[stockstradr]

I believe this “rumor” could be for real. Scary and signs of things to come in 2009.

At least MS has the class to wait until AFTER the holidays, unlike companies like Motorola which gave ALL its employees a nasty pre-Christmas 17-Dec letter (horrible timing) where they halted all raises/cost-of-living increases, suspended all company matching contributions to the Motorola 401(k) Plan, and permanently FROZE all future pension plan benefit accruals, and rather intimated at future layoffs to come. That’s a nice Merry Christmas.

[stockstradr]

I believe this “rumor” could be for real. Scary and signs of things to come in 2009.

At least MS has the class to wait until AFTER the holidays, unlike companies like Motorola which gave ALL its employees a nasty pre-Christmas 17-Dec letter (horrible timing) where they halted all raises/cost-of-living increases, suspended all company matching contributions to the Motorola 401(k) Plan, and permanently FROZE all future pension plan benefit accruals, and rather intimated at future layoffs to come. That’s a nice Merry Christmas.

[stockstradr]

I believe this “rumor” could be for real. Scary and signs of things to come in 2009.

At least MS has the class to wait until AFTER the holidays, unlike companies like Motorola which gave ALL its employees a nasty pre-Christmas 17-Dec letter (horrible timing) where they halted all raises/cost-of-living increases, suspended all company matching contributions to the Motorola 401(k) Plan, and permanently FROZE all future pension plan benefit accruals, and rather intimated at future layoffs to come. That’s a nice Merry Christmas.

[stockstradr]

so here’s my annoying I-told-you-so, albeit a bit premature.

OIL. I told you all to buy oil, told you all to starting nibbling at about $37/bbl, and increase your stake if it hits $35/bbl, which it did. I bought the oil ETF’s on Dec 18th, and then I (thankfully) doubled-down on Dec 26th as oil and associated ETF’s bottomed.

Here’s what I bought to the tune of 20% of my portfolio. The notes show the price increase off the Dec 25/26 bottom, which I acknowledge is where I added to my stake, not the price at which I bought all my shares.

UCO PROSHARES TR II PROSHARES ULTRA DJ AIG CRUDE (went from 10 to 13.7)

DXO POWERSHARES DB CRUDE OIL DOUBLE LONG ETN (went from 2 to 2.55)

USL UNITED STS 12 MONTH OIL FD LP UNIT BEN INT (went from 28 to 30)

So I’m well in-the-money on those bets. And oil has moved even higher very recently which is not yet shown up completely in those ETF’s, but it will early next week, unless oil has a horrible weekend.

Frankly, I’m not sure my next step. I think 2009 will bring oil prices that are again lower, lower even than $35/bbl. I might take my profits next week on those oil ETF bets. Yet, it is likely Israel will escalate its attack on Gaza which is helping drive oil up.

Have I lost any money this month? Yes, I bought SDS on 16 Dec, shorting the S&P500 and by the 22nd I was up over 10% on that bet; I should have dumped it then. I didn’t see the discontinuity coming that happened on Dec 22/23 as SDS went off-track from the S&P500 and dropped about 14% in the opening hours of Dec 23rd. Also, while I did see a fool’s rally forming with the S&P500 at 860, I procrastinated on selling SDS and going long. SO I’m still short the S&P500 which has moved up to 903, leaving me down 12% on that short-S&P500 bet. Keep in mind I picked up that short-S&P500 bet when the S&P500 was 910 so that tells you how much that Dec 23rd discontinuity on SDS ruined that bet, which would otherwise have been in-the-money now.

So the last couple weeks have been a wash between my short S&P500 (losses) and my long oil ETF (gains); yet this year-end has me closing the year with my portfolio at a 52-week high with a net gain of 51% (excluding all 401K/ROTH contributions, but including all costs) so I’m happy with that.

[stockstradr]

so here’s my annoying I-told-you-so, albeit a bit premature.

OIL. I told you all to buy oil, told you all to starting nibbling at about $37/bbl, and increase your stake if it hits $35/bbl, which it did. I bought the oil ETF’s on Dec 18th, and then I (thankfully) doubled-down on Dec 26th as oil and associated ETF’s bottomed.

Here’s what I bought to the tune of 20% of my portfolio. The notes show the price increase off the Dec 25/26 bottom, which I acknowledge is where I added to my stake, not the price at which I bought all my shares.

UCO PROSHARES TR II PROSHARES ULTRA DJ AIG CRUDE (went from 10 to 13.7)

DXO POWERSHARES DB CRUDE OIL DOUBLE LONG ETN (went from 2 to 2.55)

USL UNITED STS 12 MONTH OIL FD LP UNIT BEN INT (went from 28 to 30)

So I’m well in-the-money on those bets. And oil has moved even higher very recently which is not yet shown up completely in those ETF’s, but it will early next week, unless oil has a horrible weekend.

Frankly, I’m not sure my next step. I think 2009 will bring oil prices that are again lower, lower even than $35/bbl. I might take my profits next week on those oil ETF bets. Yet, it is likely Israel will escalate its attack on Gaza which is helping drive oil up.

Have I lost any money this month? Yes, I bought SDS on 16 Dec, shorting the S&P500 and by the 22nd I was up over 10% on that bet; I should have dumped it then. I didn’t see the discontinuity coming that happened on Dec 22/23 as SDS went off-track from the S&P500 and dropped about 14% in the opening hours of Dec 23rd. Also, while I did see a fool’s rally forming with the S&P500 at 860, I procrastinated on selling SDS and going long. SO I’m still short the S&P500 which has moved up to 903, leaving me down 12% on that short-S&P500 bet. Keep in mind I picked up that short-S&P500 bet when the S&P500 was 910 so that tells you how much that Dec 23rd discontinuity on SDS ruined that bet, which would otherwise have been in-the-money now.

So the last couple weeks have been a wash between my short S&P500 (losses) and my long oil ETF (gains); yet this year-end has me closing the year with my portfolio at a 52-week high with a net gain of 51% (excluding all 401K/ROTH contributions, but including all costs) so I’m happy with that.

[stockstradr]

so here’s my annoying I-told-you-so, albeit a bit premature.

OIL. I told you all to buy oil, told you all to starting nibbling at about $37/bbl, and increase your stake if it hits $35/bbl, which it did. I bought the oil ETF’s on Dec 18th, and then I (thankfully) doubled-down on Dec 26th as oil and associated ETF’s bottomed.

Here’s what I bought to the tune of 20% of my portfolio. The notes show the price increase off the Dec 25/26 bottom, which I acknowledge is where I added to my stake, not the price at which I bought all my shares.

UCO PROSHARES TR II PROSHARES ULTRA DJ AIG CRUDE (went from 10 to 13.7)

DXO POWERSHARES DB CRUDE OIL DOUBLE LONG ETN (went from 2 to 2.55)

USL UNITED STS 12 MONTH OIL FD LP UNIT BEN INT (went from 28 to 30)

So I’m well in-the-money on those bets. And oil has moved even higher very recently which is not yet shown up completely in those ETF’s, but it will early next week, unless oil has a horrible weekend.

Frankly, I’m not sure my next step. I think 2009 will bring oil prices that are again lower, lower even than $35/bbl. I might take my profits next week on those oil ETF bets. Yet, it is likely Israel will escalate its attack on Gaza which is helping drive oil up.

Have I lost any money this month? Yes, I bought SDS on 16 Dec, shorting the S&P500 and by the 22nd I was up over 10% on that bet; I should have dumped it then. I didn’t see the discontinuity coming that happened on Dec 22/23 as SDS went off-track from the S&P500 and dropped about 14% in the opening hours of Dec 23rd. Also, while I did see a fool’s rally forming with the S&P500 at 860, I procrastinated on selling SDS and going long. SO I’m still short the S&P500 which has moved up to 903, leaving me down 12% on that short-S&P500 bet. Keep in mind I picked up that short-S&P500 bet when the S&P500 was 910 so that tells you how much that Dec 23rd discontinuity on SDS ruined that bet, which would otherwise have been in-the-money now.

So the last couple weeks have been a wash between my short S&P500 (losses) and my long oil ETF (gains); yet this year-end has me closing the year with my portfolio at a 52-week high with a net gain of 51% (excluding all 401K/ROTH contributions, but including all costs) so I’m happy with that.

[stockstradr]

so here’s my annoying I-told-you-so, albeit a bit premature.

OIL. I told you all to buy oil, told you all to starting nibbling at about $37/bbl, and increase your stake if it hits $35/bbl, which it did. I bought the oil ETF’s on Dec 18th, and then I (thankfully) doubled-down on Dec 26th as oil and associated ETF’s bottomed.

Here’s what I bought to the tune of 20% of my portfolio. The notes show the price increase off the Dec 25/26 bottom, which I acknowledge is where I added to my stake, not the price at which I bought all my shares.

UCO PROSHARES TR II PROSHARES ULTRA DJ AIG CRUDE (went from 10 to 13.7)

DXO POWERSHARES DB CRUDE OIL DOUBLE LONG ETN (went from 2 to 2.55)

USL UNITED STS 12 MONTH OIL FD LP UNIT BEN INT (went from 28 to 30)

So I’m well in-the-money on those bets. And oil has moved even higher very recently which is not yet shown up completely in those ETF’s, but it will early next week, unless oil has a horrible weekend.

Frankly, I’m not sure my next step. I think 2009 will bring oil prices that are again lower, lower even than $35/bbl. I might take my profits next week on those oil ETF bets. Yet, it is likely Israel will escalate its attack on Gaza which is helping drive oil up.

Have I lost any money this month? Yes, I bought SDS on 16 Dec, shorting the S&P500 and by the 22nd I was up over 10% on that bet; I should have dumped it then. I didn’t see the discontinuity coming that happened on Dec 22/23 as SDS went off-track from the S&P500 and dropped about 14% in the opening hours of Dec 23rd. Also, while I did see a fool’s rally forming with the S&P500 at 860, I procrastinated on selling SDS and going long. SO I’m still short the S&P500 which has moved up to 903, leaving me down 12% on that short-S&P500 bet. Keep in mind I picked up that short-S&P500 bet when the S&P500 was 910 so that tells you how much that Dec 23rd discontinuity on SDS ruined that bet, which would otherwise have been in-the-money now.

So the last couple weeks have been a wash between my short S&P500 (losses) and my long oil ETF (gains); yet this year-end has me closing the year with my portfolio at a 52-week high with a net gain of 51% (excluding all 401K/ROTH contributions, but including all costs) so I’m happy with that.

[stockstradr]

so here’s my annoying I-told-you-so, albeit a bit premature.

OIL. I told you all to buy oil, told you all to starting nibbling at about $37/bbl, and increase your stake if it hits $35/bbl, which it did. I bought the oil ETF’s on Dec 18th, and then I (thankfully) doubled-down on Dec 26th as oil and associated ETF’s bottomed.

Here’s what I bought to the tune of 20% of my portfolio. The notes show the price increase off the Dec 25/26 bottom, which I acknowledge is where I added to my stake, not the price at which I bought all my shares.

UCO PROSHARES TR II PROSHARES ULTRA DJ AIG CRUDE (went from 10 to 13.7)

DXO POWERSHARES DB CRUDE OIL DOUBLE LONG ETN (went from 2 to 2.55)

USL UNITED STS 12 MONTH OIL FD LP UNIT BEN INT (went from 28 to 30)

So I’m well in-the-money on those bets. And oil has moved even higher very recently which is not yet shown up completely in those ETF’s, but it will early next week, unless oil has a horrible weekend.

Frankly, I’m not sure my next step. I think 2009 will bring oil prices that are again lower, lower even than $35/bbl. I might take my profits next week on those oil ETF bets. Yet, it is likely Israel will escalate its attack on Gaza which is helping drive oil up.

Have I lost any money this month? Yes, I bought SDS on 16 Dec, shorting the S&P500 and by the 22nd I was up over 10% on that bet; I should have dumped it then. I didn’t see the discontinuity coming that happened on Dec 22/23 as SDS went off-track from the S&P500 and dropped about 14% in the opening hours of Dec 23rd. Also, while I did see a fool’s rally forming with the S&P500 at 860, I procrastinated on selling SDS and going long. SO I’m still short the S&P500 which has moved up to 903, leaving me down 12% on that short-S&P500 bet. Keep in mind I picked up that short-S&P500 bet when the S&P500 was 910 so that tells you how much that Dec 23rd discontinuity on SDS ruined that bet, which would otherwise have been in-the-money now.

So the last couple weeks have been a wash between my short S&P500 (losses) and my long oil ETF (gains); yet this year-end has me closing the year with my portfolio at a 52-week high with a net gain of 51% (excluding all 401K/ROTH contributions, but including all costs) so I’m happy with that.

[stockstradr]

paramount just a thought…

Regarding Temecula, keep in mind implications of it being satellite community w/o mass transit system that’s an alternative to oil-based transportation that Temecula’s economy is wholly dependant upon for workers to reach distant job centers.

This recession has merely brought lower gas prices that are a TEMPORARY respite from the onset of the END of the Oil Age. Within say ten years (or possibly five) increasing gas prices will make gasoline automobiles prohibitively expensive for say 90% of Temecula’s population. They will not be able to afford to drive to work. Without an alternative cost-effective transportation option, Temecula will complete its transition to becoming (literally!) a ghost town

Temecula real estate will first face a second-stage equally-severe drop in property values (from present) unless a large-scale mass-transit system (Ex.: high-speed rail line) is in operation for Temecula to job centers within say a five-year time frame.

I think additional government market intervention within the next six months will create false rally in home prices. I recommend you sell any Temecula property during this period if you are at least break-even; if not break-even, then I would stop paying my mortgage and live rent free for as long as possible before getting kicked out..then switch to renting.

[stockstradr]

paramount just a thought…

Regarding Temecula, keep in mind implications of it being satellite community w/o mass transit system that’s an alternative to oil-based transportation that Temecula’s economy is wholly dependant upon for workers to reach distant job centers.

This recession has merely brought lower gas prices that are a TEMPORARY respite from the onset of the END of the Oil Age. Within say ten years (or possibly five) increasing gas prices will make gasoline automobiles prohibitively expensive for say 90% of Temecula’s population. They will not be able to afford to drive to work. Without an alternative cost-effective transportation option, Temecula will complete its transition to becoming (literally!) a ghost town

Temecula real estate will first face a second-stage equally-severe drop in property values (from present) unless a large-scale mass-transit system (Ex.: high-speed rail line) is in operation for Temecula to job centers within say a five-year time frame.

I think additional government market intervention within the next six months will create false rally in home prices. I recommend you sell any Temecula property during this period if you are at least break-even; if not break-even, then I would stop paying my mortgage and live rent free for as long as possible before getting kicked out..then switch to renting.

[Author]

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