[stockstradr]

I have a really weird, uneasy feeling about gold, which has had me holding ZERO gold since I dumped it all at $1150 back in about Nov, just after the $1200 peak.

I’m not talking about doubting that gold will eventually (5 year time frame) hit $3000, or even $5000 per ounce. That’s not in doubt.

I’m talking about a real chance that gold sees prices below $700 sometime during the next say 24 months. Then I back my truck up and load up like a gold glutton. This implies I kinda agree with some recent members posting about the coming next leg down in a continuing deflationary collapse.

[stockstradr]

I have a really weird, uneasy feeling about gold, which has had me holding ZERO gold since I dumped it all at $1150 back in about Nov, just after the $1200 peak.

I’m not talking about doubting that gold will eventually (5 year time frame) hit $3000, or even $5000 per ounce. That’s not in doubt.

I’m talking about a real chance that gold sees prices below $700 sometime during the next say 24 months. Then I back my truck up and load up like a gold glutton. This implies I kinda agree with some recent members posting about the coming next leg down in a continuing deflationary collapse.

[stockstradr]

I have a really weird, uneasy feeling about gold, which has had me holding ZERO gold since I dumped it all at $1150 back in about Nov, just after the $1200 peak.

I’m not talking about doubting that gold will eventually (5 year time frame) hit $3000, or even $5000 per ounce. That’s not in doubt.

I’m talking about a real chance that gold sees prices below $700 sometime during the next say 24 months. Then I back my truck up and load up like a gold glutton. This implies I kinda agree with some recent members posting about the coming next leg down in a continuing deflationary collapse.

[stockstradr]

“any thoughts on VXX going forward?”

My record in the market this year sucks, so take my opinions with a grain of salt. Anyway…

Back in mid-April the VIX was sitting at fifteen and change, looking like a lake of still, calm water of steady-as-she-goes S&P500 sailing up and over 1200.

I figured that was a good time to add to my put options position, betting volatility was coming and the S&P500 was due for a pullback. Occasionally I guess right

Mid-April would also have been a good time to buy VXX. It was then about 18; yet, just two weeks later – today it closed over 26. And we got the VIX cresting over 40, then closing at 32.80.

The water on the lake doesn’t get much rougher than we saw it today.

At least on this round, I think you’re late to the Ball Game to be making a play on the increasing volatility.

My gut instinct (= a GUESS) is that the fool’s rally now shows it still has legs to take the S&P500 back above 1200, with volatility probably decreasing.

And so I find myself unwilling to bet the next six months show us markets falling significantly below today’s lows.

But I find myself COMPELLED to bet that sometime during the next 24 (or 36) months, we’ll see markets go way below today’s lows, as in 20%, or 30%, or more. That’s why I like the leap put options on the indexes with expiration out to at least late 2011. But those got A LOT more expensive during the last week!

So we sit tight. We hope our guess is right, that the resuming fool’s rally (roughly to 1200) will shake out volatility, shake down the prices of these options.

Then we’ll load up on put options again, and maybe VXX also. I’m GUESSING that might be late this year or early 2011.

My basic view is that we don’t – yet – have the return of unending waves of really bad news coming at us relentlessly, not yet at least. But down in the bowels of the broken world economy there is some nasty stuff brewing. The Fat Lady hasn’t pooped her final big brown stinker yet (second leg down in the W-shaped recession/depression), but she’s got it cooking.

[stockstradr]

“any thoughts on VXX going forward?”

My record in the market this year sucks, so take my opinions with a grain of salt. Anyway…

Back in mid-April the VIX was sitting at fifteen and change, looking like a lake of still, calm water of steady-as-she-goes S&P500 sailing up and over 1200.

I figured that was a good time to add to my put options position, betting volatility was coming and the S&P500 was due for a pullback. Occasionally I guess right

Mid-April would also have been a good time to buy VXX. It was then about 18; yet, just two weeks later – today it closed over 26. And we got the VIX cresting over 40, then closing at 32.80.

The water on the lake doesn’t get much rougher than we saw it today.

At least on this round, I think you’re late to the Ball Game to be making a play on the increasing volatility.

My gut instinct (= a GUESS) is that the fool’s rally now shows it still has legs to take the S&P500 back above 1200, with volatility probably decreasing.

And so I find myself unwilling to bet the next six months show us markets falling significantly below today’s lows.

But I find myself COMPELLED to bet that sometime during the next 24 (or 36) months, we’ll see markets go way below today’s lows, as in 20%, or 30%, or more. That’s why I like the leap put options on the indexes with expiration out to at least late 2011. But those got A LOT more expensive during the last week!

So we sit tight. We hope our guess is right, that the resuming fool’s rally (roughly to 1200) will shake out volatility, shake down the prices of these options.

Then we’ll load up on put options again, and maybe VXX also. I’m GUESSING that might be late this year or early 2011.

My basic view is that we don’t – yet – have the return of unending waves of really bad news coming at us relentlessly, not yet at least. But down in the bowels of the broken world economy there is some nasty stuff brewing. The Fat Lady hasn’t pooped her final big brown stinker yet (second leg down in the W-shaped recession/depression), but she’s got it cooking.

[stockstradr]

“any thoughts on VXX going forward?”

My record in the market this year sucks, so take my opinions with a grain of salt. Anyway…

Back in mid-April the VIX was sitting at fifteen and change, looking like a lake of still, calm water of steady-as-she-goes S&P500 sailing up and over 1200.

I figured that was a good time to add to my put options position, betting volatility was coming and the S&P500 was due for a pullback. Occasionally I guess right

Mid-April would also have been a good time to buy VXX. It was then about 18; yet, just two weeks later – today it closed over 26. And we got the VIX cresting over 40, then closing at 32.80.

The water on the lake doesn’t get much rougher than we saw it today.

At least on this round, I think you’re late to the Ball Game to be making a play on the increasing volatility.

My gut instinct (= a GUESS) is that the fool’s rally now shows it still has legs to take the S&P500 back above 1200, with volatility probably decreasing.

And so I find myself unwilling to bet the next six months show us markets falling significantly below today’s lows.

But I find myself COMPELLED to bet that sometime during the next 24 (or 36) months, we’ll see markets go way below today’s lows, as in 20%, or 30%, or more. That’s why I like the leap put options on the indexes with expiration out to at least late 2011. But those got A LOT more expensive during the last week!

So we sit tight. We hope our guess is right, that the resuming fool’s rally (roughly to 1200) will shake out volatility, shake down the prices of these options.

Then we’ll load up on put options again, and maybe VXX also. I’m GUESSING that might be late this year or early 2011.

My basic view is that we don’t – yet – have the return of unending waves of really bad news coming at us relentlessly, not yet at least. But down in the bowels of the broken world economy there is some nasty stuff brewing. The Fat Lady hasn’t pooped her final big brown stinker yet (second leg down in the W-shaped recession/depression), but she’s got it cooking.

[stockstradr]

“any thoughts on VXX going forward?”

My record in the market this year sucks, so take my opinions with a grain of salt. Anyway…

Back in mid-April the VIX was sitting at fifteen and change, looking like a lake of still, calm water of steady-as-she-goes S&P500 sailing up and over 1200.

I figured that was a good time to add to my put options position, betting volatility was coming and the S&P500 was due for a pullback. Occasionally I guess right

Mid-April would also have been a good time to buy VXX. It was then about 18; yet, just two weeks later – today it closed over 26. And we got the VIX cresting over 40, then closing at 32.80.

The water on the lake doesn’t get much rougher than we saw it today.

At least on this round, I think you’re late to the Ball Game to be making a play on the increasing volatility.

My gut instinct (= a GUESS) is that the fool’s rally now shows it still has legs to take the S&P500 back above 1200, with volatility probably decreasing.

And so I find myself unwilling to bet the next six months show us markets falling significantly below today’s lows.

But I find myself COMPELLED to bet that sometime during the next 24 (or 36) months, we’ll see markets go way below today’s lows, as in 20%, or 30%, or more. That’s why I like the leap put options on the indexes with expiration out to at least late 2011. But those got A LOT more expensive during the last week!

So we sit tight. We hope our guess is right, that the resuming fool’s rally (roughly to 1200) will shake out volatility, shake down the prices of these options.

Then we’ll load up on put options again, and maybe VXX also. I’m GUESSING that might be late this year or early 2011.

My basic view is that we don’t – yet – have the return of unending waves of really bad news coming at us relentlessly, not yet at least. But down in the bowels of the broken world economy there is some nasty stuff brewing. The Fat Lady hasn’t pooped her final big brown stinker yet (second leg down in the W-shaped recession/depression), but she’s got it cooking.

[stockstradr]

“any thoughts on VXX going forward?”

My record in the market this year sucks, so take my opinions with a grain of salt. Anyway…

Back in mid-April the VIX was sitting at fifteen and change, looking like a lake of still, calm water of steady-as-she-goes S&P500 sailing up and over 1200.

I figured that was a good time to add to my put options position, betting volatility was coming and the S&P500 was due for a pullback. Occasionally I guess right

Mid-April would also have been a good time to buy VXX. It was then about 18; yet, just two weeks later – today it closed over 26. And we got the VIX cresting over 40, then closing at 32.80.

The water on the lake doesn’t get much rougher than we saw it today.

At least on this round, I think you’re late to the Ball Game to be making a play on the increasing volatility.

My gut instinct (= a GUESS) is that the fool’s rally now shows it still has legs to take the S&P500 back above 1200, with volatility probably decreasing.

And so I find myself unwilling to bet the next six months show us markets falling significantly below today’s lows.

But I find myself COMPELLED to bet that sometime during the next 24 (or 36) months, we’ll see markets go way below today’s lows, as in 20%, or 30%, or more. That’s why I like the leap put options on the indexes with expiration out to at least late 2011. But those got A LOT more expensive during the last week!

So we sit tight. We hope our guess is right, that the resuming fool’s rally (roughly to 1200) will shake out volatility, shake down the prices of these options.

Then we’ll load up on put options again, and maybe VXX also. I’m GUESSING that might be late this year or early 2011.

My basic view is that we don’t – yet – have the return of unending waves of really bad news coming at us relentlessly, not yet at least. But down in the bowels of the broken world economy there is some nasty stuff brewing. The Fat Lady hasn’t pooped her final big brown stinker yet (second leg down in the W-shaped recession/depression), but she’s got it cooking.

[stockstradr]

I think the original header post is a no-brainer, meaning the situation is so clearly NOT an etiquette faux pas.

Now I give you what I think is a good checkout line manners discussion piece. This has happened to me twice in the last six months.

You are standing in the grocery checkout line, holding a basket with roughly five items. There are only one or two people in line ahead of you before the cashier, so it is a relatively short checkout line.

The person behind you has one item. You haven’t even noticed that, until…that person taps you on the shoulder puts that one item into your face and says:

“If you don’t mind I’m going to step in front of you because I only have ONE item. You don’t mind do you?”

Oh, and that person is no different from you, having no old age, or handicapped, or whatever special skip-ahead pass.

So would you say this person is deviating from what we normally consider good manners?

I think so!

[stockstradr]

I think the original header post is a no-brainer, meaning the situation is so clearly NOT an etiquette faux pas.

Now I give you what I think is a good checkout line manners discussion piece. This has happened to me twice in the last six months.

You are standing in the grocery checkout line, holding a basket with roughly five items. There are only one or two people in line ahead of you before the cashier, so it is a relatively short checkout line.

The person behind you has one item. You haven’t even noticed that, until…that person taps you on the shoulder puts that one item into your face and says:

“If you don’t mind I’m going to step in front of you because I only have ONE item. You don’t mind do you?”

Oh, and that person is no different from you, having no old age, or handicapped, or whatever special skip-ahead pass.

So would you say this person is deviating from what we normally consider good manners?

I think so!

[stockstradr]

I think the original header post is a no-brainer, meaning the situation is so clearly NOT an etiquette faux pas.

Now I give you what I think is a good checkout line manners discussion piece. This has happened to me twice in the last six months.

You are standing in the grocery checkout line, holding a basket with roughly five items. There are only one or two people in line ahead of you before the cashier, so it is a relatively short checkout line.

The person behind you has one item. You haven’t even noticed that, until…that person taps you on the shoulder puts that one item into your face and says:

“If you don’t mind I’m going to step in front of you because I only have ONE item. You don’t mind do you?”

Oh, and that person is no different from you, having no old age, or handicapped, or whatever special skip-ahead pass.

So would you say this person is deviating from what we normally consider good manners?

I think so!

[stockstradr]

I think the original header post is a no-brainer, meaning the situation is so clearly NOT an etiquette faux pas.

Now I give you what I think is a good checkout line manners discussion piece. This has happened to me twice in the last six months.

You are standing in the grocery checkout line, holding a basket with roughly five items. There are only one or two people in line ahead of you before the cashier, so it is a relatively short checkout line.

The person behind you has one item. You haven’t even noticed that, until…that person taps you on the shoulder puts that one item into your face and says:

“If you don’t mind I’m going to step in front of you because I only have ONE item. You don’t mind do you?”

Oh, and that person is no different from you, having no old age, or handicapped, or whatever special skip-ahead pass.

So would you say this person is deviating from what we normally consider good manners?

I think so!

[stockstradr]

I think the original header post is a no-brainer, meaning the situation is so clearly NOT an etiquette faux pas.

Now I give you what I think is a good checkout line manners discussion piece. This has happened to me twice in the last six months.

You are standing in the grocery checkout line, holding a basket with roughly five items. There are only one or two people in line ahead of you before the cashier, so it is a relatively short checkout line.

The person behind you has one item. You haven’t even noticed that, until…that person taps you on the shoulder puts that one item into your face and says:

“If you don’t mind I’m going to step in front of you because I only have ONE item. You don’t mind do you?”

Oh, and that person is no different from you, having no old age, or handicapped, or whatever special skip-ahead pass.

So would you say this person is deviating from what we normally consider good manners?

I think so!

[stockstradr]

Yes, that was a wild ride today. And a fun one, for some of us.

I began the day positioned with a fifth of my portfolio in put options:

SPY DEC 2010 105.0000 PUT
SPY DEC 2011 90.0000 PUT

Over the course of a few hours, the first of those positions DOUBLED in price. After the market bounced back up (hurting my put values) those two put positions closed up about 30% for the day.

Unreal!

SPY SEP 2010 85.0000 PUT.

Only a few days ago that option was about $0.40, can you blame me for dumping it yesterday at $0.75. After all, the sucker is expiring in a few months, and look how far out of the money it is. (SPY closed at 113 today)

But naturally, I cried when it today it peaked at $1.70, and traded last at $1.57. I missed out on an additional doubling of that position in a mere 24 hours.

NOTE: it is extremely unusual for me to have a fifth of my retirement portfolio in options. I had a good instinct, so I took a temporary risk with that 20% options position, and it paid off. I note, it is not wise to have more than about 5% of a retirement portfolio in anything as risky as options, at any one time. No I don’t want to read your flame posts lecturing me on my excessive risk. I understand the risks I take.

Ahh, but another half my portfolio is also in PROSHARES ULTRASHORT S&P 500. So I’m living dangerously.

With those positions, you can imagine, I’m up net about 10% for the day across my entire portfolio.

Tomorrow, I will probably dump ALL my short positions and go to cash (because I should have done that today at 1:30 PM!). I’m guessing the markets will soon head back up to 1200 on the S&P500. However, I’m guessing that sometime in the next 24 months, markets will hit levels MUCH LOWER than where we saw them close today. That’s why I’m holding the 2011 put options.

However, full disclosure, this has been a ROUGH year for me in the stock market, and since Jan 1 2010 my portfolio remains in net loss position, even after today’s gains. And that’s pathetic that I was unable to make money in a year where stocks have pretty much gone straight up, despite a few minor pullbacks such as we saw today. I held my bearishly biased position too long into the rally.

However, my portfolio does remain in a net positive position, relative to its value at the Oct 2007 market peak.

[stockstradr]

Yes, that was a wild ride today. And a fun one, for some of us.

I began the day positioned with a fifth of my portfolio in put options:

SPY DEC 2010 105.0000 PUT
SPY DEC 2011 90.0000 PUT

Over the course of a few hours, the first of those positions DOUBLED in price. After the market bounced back up (hurting my put values) those two put positions closed up about 30% for the day.

Unreal!

SPY SEP 2010 85.0000 PUT.

Only a few days ago that option was about $0.40, can you blame me for dumping it yesterday at $0.75. After all, the sucker is expiring in a few months, and look how far out of the money it is. (SPY closed at 113 today)

But naturally, I cried when it today it peaked at $1.70, and traded last at $1.57. I missed out on an additional doubling of that position in a mere 24 hours.

NOTE: it is extremely unusual for me to have a fifth of my retirement portfolio in options. I had a good instinct, so I took a temporary risk with that 20% options position, and it paid off. I note, it is not wise to have more than about 5% of a retirement portfolio in anything as risky as options, at any one time. No I don’t want to read your flame posts lecturing me on my excessive risk. I understand the risks I take.

Ahh, but another half my portfolio is also in PROSHARES ULTRASHORT S&P 500. So I’m living dangerously.

With those positions, you can imagine, I’m up net about 10% for the day across my entire portfolio.

Tomorrow, I will probably dump ALL my short positions and go to cash (because I should have done that today at 1:30 PM!). I’m guessing the markets will soon head back up to 1200 on the S&P500. However, I’m guessing that sometime in the next 24 months, markets will hit levels MUCH LOWER than where we saw them close today. That’s why I’m holding the 2011 put options.

However, full disclosure, this has been a ROUGH year for me in the stock market, and since Jan 1 2010 my portfolio remains in net loss position, even after today’s gains. And that’s pathetic that I was unable to make money in a year where stocks have pretty much gone straight up, despite a few minor pullbacks such as we saw today. I held my bearishly biased position too long into the rally.

However, my portfolio does remain in a net positive position, relative to its value at the Oct 2007 market peak.

[Author]

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