[stockstradr]

I tend to be gloom-and-doom oriented, but my predictions are often accurate.

So here’s my prediction on this recession.

Not only will this be a deep and long recession, but the USA will NEVER fully recover from it. This recession coincides (and is driven from) both a a credit cycle bottoming, AND an historic reordering of global economics, plus the end of the Age of Oil. The USA will be the loser in the New World Order, where the 3rd world rises and we fall, and the USA is least prepared for the end of the Age of Oil.

The recession will be global, for example, China’s GDP will be cut at least in half for a year or two; however, it is possible China’s GDP won’t go negative. So one could say I expect significantly lowered growth for China but not necessarily a painful recession. However, I see Asia quickly and fully recovering from this recession.

I think this reordering of global economic and political power could take ten years, but then the typical American will be left stunned at how dramatically our standard of living (and world political power) will have been reduced.

Case-in-point for a Typical American. You own a big SUV. You live in a big McMansion (mortgage underwater) that is a 100 mile commute from your job but in typical American fashion, mass transportation has never been built that can take you where you want to go.

Gas goes to $10/gallon, or it isn’t even available at all.

Even if you don’t lose your job (recession) you’ve got no cost-effective way to get to work. You’re screwed.

Oh, and let’s not forget that the dollar has by then ..say fallen to less than 1/10 of its value today.

So now you go to Walmart, but unfortunately all those made-in-China products are now expensive relative priced in a very weakened dollar.

I’m really afraid for the future of our country.

[stockstradr]

I tend to be gloom-and-doom oriented, but my predictions are often accurate.

So here’s my prediction on this recession.

Not only will this be a deep and long recession, but the USA will NEVER fully recover from it. This recession coincides (and is driven from) both a a credit cycle bottoming, AND an historic reordering of global economics, plus the end of the Age of Oil. The USA will be the loser in the New World Order, where the 3rd world rises and we fall, and the USA is least prepared for the end of the Age of Oil.

The recession will be global, for example, China’s GDP will be cut at least in half for a year or two; however, it is possible China’s GDP won’t go negative. So one could say I expect significantly lowered growth for China but not necessarily a painful recession. However, I see Asia quickly and fully recovering from this recession.

I think this reordering of global economic and political power could take ten years, but then the typical American will be left stunned at how dramatically our standard of living (and world political power) will have been reduced.

Case-in-point for a Typical American. You own a big SUV. You live in a big McMansion (mortgage underwater) that is a 100 mile commute from your job but in typical American fashion, mass transportation has never been built that can take you where you want to go.

Gas goes to $10/gallon, or it isn’t even available at all.

Even if you don’t lose your job (recession) you’ve got no cost-effective way to get to work. You’re screwed.

Oh, and let’s not forget that the dollar has by then ..say fallen to less than 1/10 of its value today.

So now you go to Walmart, but unfortunately all those made-in-China products are now expensive relative priced in a very weakened dollar.

I’m really afraid for the future of our country.

[stockstradr]

I tend to be gloom-and-doom oriented, but my predictions are often accurate.

So here’s my prediction on this recession.

Not only will this be a deep and long recession, but the USA will NEVER fully recover from it. This recession coincides (and is driven from) both a a credit cycle bottoming, AND an historic reordering of global economics, plus the end of the Age of Oil. The USA will be the loser in the New World Order, where the 3rd world rises and we fall, and the USA is least prepared for the end of the Age of Oil.

The recession will be global, for example, China’s GDP will be cut at least in half for a year or two; however, it is possible China’s GDP won’t go negative. So one could say I expect significantly lowered growth for China but not necessarily a painful recession. However, I see Asia quickly and fully recovering from this recession.

I think this reordering of global economic and political power could take ten years, but then the typical American will be left stunned at how dramatically our standard of living (and world political power) will have been reduced.

Case-in-point for a Typical American. You own a big SUV. You live in a big McMansion (mortgage underwater) that is a 100 mile commute from your job but in typical American fashion, mass transportation has never been built that can take you where you want to go.

Gas goes to $10/gallon, or it isn’t even available at all.

Even if you don’t lose your job (recession) you’ve got no cost-effective way to get to work. You’re screwed.

Oh, and let’s not forget that the dollar has by then ..say fallen to less than 1/10 of its value today.

So now you go to Walmart, but unfortunately all those made-in-China products are now expensive relative priced in a very weakened dollar.

I’m really afraid for the future of our country.

[stockstradr]

>>As to shorting oil, why throw good money after bad?

That’s a fair question. I was being more dramtic than serious in my follow-up post “I’m going to double-down my oil bets”

I think there are better bets. God only knows how high oil will climb before we see a significant correction. Maybe $200/bbl.

I’ve been watching the Shanghai index again. It has fallen from 6,100 down to 2750, and has now recovered a tiny bit. Back in May ’05 it was at 1,000 and I was in China visiting in laws and begging my wife (who is Chinese) to help me find a broker and open an account in her name so I could buy the Shanghai index. We visited a few brokers, but in the end she refused because her family felt the Chinese stock market was too risky. Well they are right about that, but I was smart enough to see that 1,000 had to be near the bottom. After that the index went up 6X in 2 1/2 years and I didn’t make a friggin’ dime on that.

So now with that Index crashing again, my second chance may be coming up. However, I want the Shanghai index to go lower than 2,700, certainly below 2,000 before I start buying.

I’ve heard there are now some funds or ETF’s that westerners can buy that have exposure to the Shanghai exchange, but I’m not sure of the specifics.

[stockstradr]

>>As to shorting oil, why throw good money after bad?

That’s a fair question. I was being more dramtic than serious in my follow-up post “I’m going to double-down my oil bets”

I think there are better bets. God only knows how high oil will climb before we see a significant correction. Maybe $200/bbl.

I’ve been watching the Shanghai index again. It has fallen from 6,100 down to 2750, and has now recovered a tiny bit. Back in May ’05 it was at 1,000 and I was in China visiting in laws and begging my wife (who is Chinese) to help me find a broker and open an account in her name so I could buy the Shanghai index. We visited a few brokers, but in the end she refused because her family felt the Chinese stock market was too risky. Well they are right about that, but I was smart enough to see that 1,000 had to be near the bottom. After that the index went up 6X in 2 1/2 years and I didn’t make a friggin’ dime on that.

So now with that Index crashing again, my second chance may be coming up. However, I want the Shanghai index to go lower than 2,700, certainly below 2,000 before I start buying.

I’ve heard there are now some funds or ETF’s that westerners can buy that have exposure to the Shanghai exchange, but I’m not sure of the specifics.

[stockstradr]

>>As to shorting oil, why throw good money after bad?

That’s a fair question. I was being more dramtic than serious in my follow-up post “I’m going to double-down my oil bets”

I think there are better bets. God only knows how high oil will climb before we see a significant correction. Maybe $200/bbl.

I’ve been watching the Shanghai index again. It has fallen from 6,100 down to 2750, and has now recovered a tiny bit. Back in May ’05 it was at 1,000 and I was in China visiting in laws and begging my wife (who is Chinese) to help me find a broker and open an account in her name so I could buy the Shanghai index. We visited a few brokers, but in the end she refused because her family felt the Chinese stock market was too risky. Well they are right about that, but I was smart enough to see that 1,000 had to be near the bottom. After that the index went up 6X in 2 1/2 years and I didn’t make a friggin’ dime on that.

So now with that Index crashing again, my second chance may be coming up. However, I want the Shanghai index to go lower than 2,700, certainly below 2,000 before I start buying.

I’ve heard there are now some funds or ETF’s that westerners can buy that have exposure to the Shanghai exchange, but I’m not sure of the specifics.

[stockstradr]

>>As to shorting oil, why throw good money after bad?

That’s a fair question. I was being more dramtic than serious in my follow-up post “I’m going to double-down my oil bets”

I think there are better bets. God only knows how high oil will climb before we see a significant correction. Maybe $200/bbl.

I’ve been watching the Shanghai index again. It has fallen from 6,100 down to 2750, and has now recovered a tiny bit. Back in May ’05 it was at 1,000 and I was in China visiting in laws and begging my wife (who is Chinese) to help me find a broker and open an account in her name so I could buy the Shanghai index. We visited a few brokers, but in the end she refused because her family felt the Chinese stock market was too risky. Well they are right about that, but I was smart enough to see that 1,000 had to be near the bottom. After that the index went up 6X in 2 1/2 years and I didn’t make a friggin’ dime on that.

So now with that Index crashing again, my second chance may be coming up. However, I want the Shanghai index to go lower than 2,700, certainly below 2,000 before I start buying.

I’ve heard there are now some funds or ETF’s that westerners can buy that have exposure to the Shanghai exchange, but I’m not sure of the specifics.

[stockstradr]

>>As to shorting oil, why throw good money after bad?

That’s a fair question. I was being more dramtic than serious in my follow-up post “I’m going to double-down my oil bets”

I think there are better bets. God only knows how high oil will climb before we see a significant correction. Maybe $200/bbl.

I’ve been watching the Shanghai index again. It has fallen from 6,100 down to 2750, and has now recovered a tiny bit. Back in May ’05 it was at 1,000 and I was in China visiting in laws and begging my wife (who is Chinese) to help me find a broker and open an account in her name so I could buy the Shanghai index. We visited a few brokers, but in the end she refused because her family felt the Chinese stock market was too risky. Well they are right about that, but I was smart enough to see that 1,000 had to be near the bottom. After that the index went up 6X in 2 1/2 years and I didn’t make a friggin’ dime on that.

So now with that Index crashing again, my second chance may be coming up. However, I want the Shanghai index to go lower than 2,700, certainly below 2,000 before I start buying.

I’ve heard there are now some funds or ETF’s that westerners can buy that have exposure to the Shanghai exchange, but I’m not sure of the specifics.

[stockstradr]

Best of San Diego?

I hope someone has mentioned the swarms of hottie college girls in small bikinis strutting their stuff at Ocean Beach!

I do miss them.

Now that we are up in Silicon Valley, we’ll be going to Santa Cruz beaches tomorrow, but it just won’t be the same as Ocean Beach.

*sigh*

Ahh, but my wife is 6-months pregnant…and if we were going to Ocean Beach she would probably watch my neck twisting to gawk at the hotties, and then she would kick my ass when we got home. So at least i’m avoiding that scene!

[stockstradr]

Best of San Diego?

I hope someone has mentioned the swarms of hottie college girls in small bikinis strutting their stuff at Ocean Beach!

I do miss them.

Now that we are up in Silicon Valley, we’ll be going to Santa Cruz beaches tomorrow, but it just won’t be the same as Ocean Beach.

*sigh*

Ahh, but my wife is 6-months pregnant…and if we were going to Ocean Beach she would probably watch my neck twisting to gawk at the hotties, and then she would kick my ass when we got home. So at least i’m avoiding that scene!

[stockstradr]

Best of San Diego?

I hope someone has mentioned the swarms of hottie college girls in small bikinis strutting their stuff at Ocean Beach!

I do miss them.

Now that we are up in Silicon Valley, we’ll be going to Santa Cruz beaches tomorrow, but it just won’t be the same as Ocean Beach.

*sigh*

Ahh, but my wife is 6-months pregnant…and if we were going to Ocean Beach she would probably watch my neck twisting to gawk at the hotties, and then she would kick my ass when we got home. So at least i’m avoiding that scene!

[stockstradr]

Best of San Diego?

I hope someone has mentioned the swarms of hottie college girls in small bikinis strutting their stuff at Ocean Beach!

I do miss them.

Now that we are up in Silicon Valley, we’ll be going to Santa Cruz beaches tomorrow, but it just won’t be the same as Ocean Beach.

*sigh*

Ahh, but my wife is 6-months pregnant…and if we were going to Ocean Beach she would probably watch my neck twisting to gawk at the hotties, and then she would kick my ass when we got home. So at least i’m avoiding that scene!

[stockstradr]

Best of San Diego?

I hope someone has mentioned the swarms of hottie college girls in small bikinis strutting their stuff at Ocean Beach!

I do miss them.

Now that we are up in Silicon Valley, we’ll be going to Santa Cruz beaches tomorrow, but it just won’t be the same as Ocean Beach.

*sigh*

Ahh, but my wife is 6-months pregnant…and if we were going to Ocean Beach she would probably watch my neck twisting to gawk at the hotties, and then she would kick my ass when we got home. So at least i’m avoiding that scene!

[stockstradr]

In early May you can see I advised buying put options on the NASDAQ and S&P500. (I did by the way load up on those options myself)

The S&P 500 has fallen 10% since I wrote those words. And we’re down 18% since I was giving that same advice earlier back in Oct ’07.

Yes, I still have my minor short postion on oil industry sector stocks; however, I’ve made so damn much on remaining 90% of my portfolio (short the overall market), that I could care less about oil…except that I plan to now make money on that position as well. I’m now going to double-down next week and cost-average my short oil positions. I think oil prices are due for a nice correction very soon. It all has to do with the timely onset of the recession beginning to reduce global oil demand.

Now, various forum trolls, yes please do reply your usual tired old flame responses ridiculing my market calls. Give me some more material I can make fun of six months from now when I show you my predictions again came true helping me make loads more money….OR, alternatively, you might climb on board place your bets and make some money betting on these falling markets (oil, and overall).

We are only maybe halfway through a long painful market decline. My mouse finger wil not get itchy to click sell-to-close existing short positions until we get below 1100 on the S&P 500….and oil hits about $70/bbl (just guessing on that last one)

It is sinful to make this much money on falling markets, but I’m happy to do it!

[stockstradr]

In early May you can see I advised buying put options on the NASDAQ and S&P500. (I did by the way load up on those options myself)

The S&P 500 has fallen 10% since I wrote those words. And we’re down 18% since I was giving that same advice earlier back in Oct ’07.

Yes, I still have my minor short postion on oil industry sector stocks; however, I’ve made so damn much on remaining 90% of my portfolio (short the overall market), that I could care less about oil…except that I plan to now make money on that position as well. I’m now going to double-down next week and cost-average my short oil positions. I think oil prices are due for a nice correction very soon. It all has to do with the timely onset of the recession beginning to reduce global oil demand.

Now, various forum trolls, yes please do reply your usual tired old flame responses ridiculing my market calls. Give me some more material I can make fun of six months from now when I show you my predictions again came true helping me make loads more money….OR, alternatively, you might climb on board place your bets and make some money betting on these falling markets (oil, and overall).

We are only maybe halfway through a long painful market decline. My mouse finger wil not get itchy to click sell-to-close existing short positions until we get below 1100 on the S&P 500….and oil hits about $70/bbl (just guessing on that last one)

It is sinful to make this much money on falling markets, but I’m happy to do it!

[Author]

Posts