[stockstradr]

So as far as the market is concerned are we near a stock market bottom?

Roubini has been one of the most accurate economists, in terms of predicting these horrific events gripping our economy and financial markets.

To paraphrase his recent comments:

1) In case of NO MAJOR BAIL OUT OF FINANCIAL FIRMS/BANKS, then we might expect an L-shaped recession similar to what gripped the Japanese economy for a decade. This probably implies overall deflation, and certainly implies long-term deflation specifically for housing prices (which fell for over ten straight years in Japan)

2) In case of PASSAGE OF HELPFUL BAIL OUT OF FINANCIAL FIRMS/BANKS…then a deep U-shaped recession is still certain (probably has already been underway for several months) that lasts AT LEAST twelve to eighteen months, where countrywide unemployment would reach at least 8%.

Either way he remarks the stock markets can be expected to fall approximately 35% to 40% from their Oct ’07 highs, maybe more.

The NASDAQ is already down 30% off the Oct ’07 highs. So another bad day tomorrow and Roubini’s prediction would already be realized (for the NASDAQ). That would only have me conluding he’s under-estimated how far down this bear market will take stock values.

[stockstradr]

So as far as the market is concerned are we near a stock market bottom?

Roubini has been one of the most accurate economists, in terms of predicting these horrific events gripping our economy and financial markets.

To paraphrase his recent comments:

1) In case of NO MAJOR BAIL OUT OF FINANCIAL FIRMS/BANKS, then we might expect an L-shaped recession similar to what gripped the Japanese economy for a decade. This probably implies overall deflation, and certainly implies long-term deflation specifically for housing prices (which fell for over ten straight years in Japan)

2) In case of PASSAGE OF HELPFUL BAIL OUT OF FINANCIAL FIRMS/BANKS…then a deep U-shaped recession is still certain (probably has already been underway for several months) that lasts AT LEAST twelve to eighteen months, where countrywide unemployment would reach at least 8%.

Either way he remarks the stock markets can be expected to fall approximately 35% to 40% from their Oct ’07 highs, maybe more.

The NASDAQ is already down 30% off the Oct ’07 highs. So another bad day tomorrow and Roubini’s prediction would already be realized (for the NASDAQ). That would only have me conluding he’s under-estimated how far down this bear market will take stock values.

[stockstradr]

So as far as the market is concerned are we near a stock market bottom?

Roubini has been one of the most accurate economists, in terms of predicting these horrific events gripping our economy and financial markets.

To paraphrase his recent comments:

1) In case of NO MAJOR BAIL OUT OF FINANCIAL FIRMS/BANKS, then we might expect an L-shaped recession similar to what gripped the Japanese economy for a decade. This probably implies overall deflation, and certainly implies long-term deflation specifically for housing prices (which fell for over ten straight years in Japan)

2) In case of PASSAGE OF HELPFUL BAIL OUT OF FINANCIAL FIRMS/BANKS…then a deep U-shaped recession is still certain (probably has already been underway for several months) that lasts AT LEAST twelve to eighteen months, where countrywide unemployment would reach at least 8%.

Either way he remarks the stock markets can be expected to fall approximately 35% to 40% from their Oct ’07 highs, maybe more.

The NASDAQ is already down 30% off the Oct ’07 highs. So another bad day tomorrow and Roubini’s prediction would already be realized (for the NASDAQ). That would only have me conluding he’s under-estimated how far down this bear market will take stock values.

[stockstradr]

underdose, that’s a very intelligent post.

Today marks a dangerous transition for me where my market plays now involve some pure attempts to simply time the market.

I agree with you that, in general, it is BAD PRACTICE to gamble at timing the market, particularly with risky bets that run counter to a cyclical bear market trend. (unless you have the facility of accurate precognition, which i don’t claim)

Previously my strategy was exclusively making long-term bets on the underlying fundamentals (such as my shorting the S&P500 back in Oct ’07), short dolar, long gold, and additionally I have dabbled in less risky market timing by closing shorts at temporary market bottoms and buying at the crest of Fool’s Rallies. So previously I avoided trying to time the market in counter-market plays.

[stockstradr]

underdose, that’s a very intelligent post.

Today marks a dangerous transition for me where my market plays now involve some pure attempts to simply time the market.

I agree with you that, in general, it is BAD PRACTICE to gamble at timing the market, particularly with risky bets that run counter to a cyclical bear market trend. (unless you have the facility of accurate precognition, which i don’t claim)

Previously my strategy was exclusively making long-term bets on the underlying fundamentals (such as my shorting the S&P500 back in Oct ’07), short dolar, long gold, and additionally I have dabbled in less risky market timing by closing shorts at temporary market bottoms and buying at the crest of Fool’s Rallies. So previously I avoided trying to time the market in counter-market plays.

[stockstradr]

underdose, that’s a very intelligent post.

Today marks a dangerous transition for me where my market plays now involve some pure attempts to simply time the market.

I agree with you that, in general, it is BAD PRACTICE to gamble at timing the market, particularly with risky bets that run counter to a cyclical bear market trend. (unless you have the facility of accurate precognition, which i don’t claim)

Previously my strategy was exclusively making long-term bets on the underlying fundamentals (such as my shorting the S&P500 back in Oct ’07), short dolar, long gold, and additionally I have dabbled in less risky market timing by closing shorts at temporary market bottoms and buying at the crest of Fool’s Rallies. So previously I avoided trying to time the market in counter-market plays.

[stockstradr]

underdose, that’s a very intelligent post.

Today marks a dangerous transition for me where my market plays now involve some pure attempts to simply time the market.

I agree with you that, in general, it is BAD PRACTICE to gamble at timing the market, particularly with risky bets that run counter to a cyclical bear market trend. (unless you have the facility of accurate precognition, which i don’t claim)

Previously my strategy was exclusively making long-term bets on the underlying fundamentals (such as my shorting the S&P500 back in Oct ’07), short dolar, long gold, and additionally I have dabbled in less risky market timing by closing shorts at temporary market bottoms and buying at the crest of Fool’s Rallies. So previously I avoided trying to time the market in counter-market plays.

[stockstradr]

underdose, that’s a very intelligent post.

Today marks a dangerous transition for me where my market plays now involve some pure attempts to simply time the market.

I agree with you that, in general, it is BAD PRACTICE to gamble at timing the market, particularly with risky bets that run counter to a cyclical bear market trend. (unless you have the facility of accurate precognition, which i don’t claim)

Previously my strategy was exclusively making long-term bets on the underlying fundamentals (such as my shorting the S&P500 back in Oct ’07), short dolar, long gold, and additionally I have dabbled in less risky market timing by closing shorts at temporary market bottoms and buying at the crest of Fool’s Rallies. So previously I avoided trying to time the market in counter-market plays.

[stockstradr]

Agreed. This is pure speculation, gambling. But I’m good at that.

WARNING: the vast majority of people in this overall Piggington forum should consider the ideas in this thread totally inappropriate for executing within their portfolios.

Tomorrow could be another DOWN day but if it is, I will double-down my 2X long positions, probably this time going 2X long the NASDAQ which is already now down 30% off the Oct 2007 highs.

[stockstradr]

Agreed. This is pure speculation, gambling. But I’m good at that.

WARNING: the vast majority of people in this overall Piggington forum should consider the ideas in this thread totally inappropriate for executing within their portfolios.

Tomorrow could be another DOWN day but if it is, I will double-down my 2X long positions, probably this time going 2X long the NASDAQ which is already now down 30% off the Oct 2007 highs.

[stockstradr]

Agreed. This is pure speculation, gambling. But I’m good at that.

WARNING: the vast majority of people in this overall Piggington forum should consider the ideas in this thread totally inappropriate for executing within their portfolios.

Tomorrow could be another DOWN day but if it is, I will double-down my 2X long positions, probably this time going 2X long the NASDAQ which is already now down 30% off the Oct 2007 highs.

[stockstradr]

Agreed. This is pure speculation, gambling. But I’m good at that.

WARNING: the vast majority of people in this overall Piggington forum should consider the ideas in this thread totally inappropriate for executing within their portfolios.

Tomorrow could be another DOWN day but if it is, I will double-down my 2X long positions, probably this time going 2X long the NASDAQ which is already now down 30% off the Oct 2007 highs.

[stockstradr]

Agreed. This is pure speculation, gambling. But I’m good at that.

WARNING: the vast majority of people in this overall Piggington forum should consider the ideas in this thread totally inappropriate for executing within their portfolios.

Tomorrow could be another DOWN day but if it is, I will double-down my 2X long positions, probably this time going 2X long the NASDAQ which is already now down 30% off the Oct 2007 highs.

[stockstradr]

BUMPER STICKER:

NOTE: DRIVER CARRIES LESS THAN $10 CASH
(HE’S MARRIED)

[stockstradr]

BUMPER STICKER:

NOTE: DRIVER CARRIES LESS THAN $10 CASH
(HE’S MARRIED)

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