[stansd]

If they are smart, they’ll announce a huge layoff in the next few days, cease all non conforming origination (I’m sure this is done), draw down all ST financing (which they’ve done). Auction off any houses on the books immediately.

Also, don’t discount all the Private Equity vultures out there that might see this as an opportunity.

I think they’ve got a good chance of making it through.

Stan

[stansd]

If they are smart, they’ll announce a huge layoff in the next few days, cease all non conforming origination (I’m sure this is done), draw down all ST financing (which they’ve done). Auction off any houses on the books immediately.

Also, don’t discount all the Private Equity vultures out there that might see this as an opportunity.

I think they’ve got a good chance of making it through.

Stan

[stansd]

If they are smart, they’ll announce a huge layoff in the next few days, cease all non conforming origination (I’m sure this is done), draw down all ST financing (which they’ve done). Auction off any houses on the books immediately.

Also, don’t discount all the Private Equity vultures out there that might see this as an opportunity.

I think they’ve got a good chance of making it through.

Stan

[stansd]

If they are smart, they’ll announce a huge layoff in the next few days, cease all non conforming origination (I’m sure this is done), draw down all ST financing (which they’ve done). Auction off any houses on the books immediately.

Also, don’t discount all the Private Equity vultures out there that might see this as an opportunity.

I think they’ve got a good chance of making it through.

Stan

[stansd]

If they are smart, they’ll announce a huge layoff in the next few days, cease all non conforming origination (I’m sure this is done), draw down all ST financing (which they’ve done). Auction off any houses on the books immediately.

Also, don’t discount all the Private Equity vultures out there that might see this as an opportunity.

I think they’ve got a good chance of making it through.

Stan

[stansd]

Hadn’t seen that yet-think it came out within a few minutes of my post.

I’ve walked the plank now…still think they’ll weather it (options still not pricing in real high odds of BK, TBTF, liquidity will ease up), but I wouldn’t seek a loan from them at the moment:)

Stan

[stansd]

Hadn’t seen that yet-think it came out within a few minutes of my post.

I’ve walked the plank now…still think they’ll weather it (options still not pricing in real high odds of BK, TBTF, liquidity will ease up), but I wouldn’t seek a loan from them at the moment:)

Stan

[stansd]

Hadn’t seen that yet-think it came out within a few minutes of my post.

I’ve walked the plank now…still think they’ll weather it (options still not pricing in real high odds of BK, TBTF, liquidity will ease up), but I wouldn’t seek a loan from them at the moment:)

Stan

[stansd]

I’ll go on record in agreement. I think they will weather the liquidity crunch. They’ll remain pretty beaten down as the fallout from the housing decline continues to make itself truly felt (they’ll probably require big layoffs and a reorganization to “right size” their business), but I don’t see them going bankrupt.

This board has some definite biases that always have to be remembered. If you look at the prices of credit default swaps on CFC, they have gotten much more expensive, but they are still placing the odds of bankruptcy as remote.

Stan

[stansd]

I’ll go on record in agreement. I think they will weather the liquidity crunch. They’ll remain pretty beaten down as the fallout from the housing decline continues to make itself truly felt (they’ll probably require big layoffs and a reorganization to “right size” their business), but I don’t see them going bankrupt.

This board has some definite biases that always have to be remembered. If you look at the prices of credit default swaps on CFC, they have gotten much more expensive, but they are still placing the odds of bankruptcy as remote.

Stan

[stansd]

I’ll go on record in agreement. I think they will weather the liquidity crunch. They’ll remain pretty beaten down as the fallout from the housing decline continues to make itself truly felt (they’ll probably require big layoffs and a reorganization to “right size” their business), but I don’t see them going bankrupt.

This board has some definite biases that always have to be remembered. If you look at the prices of credit default swaps on CFC, they have gotten much more expensive, but they are still placing the odds of bankruptcy as remote.

Stan

[stansd]

I can’t wait to see the sales figures for the next couple of months…they are going to be a disaster. With banks the size of countrywide facing liquidity crunches, lending has all but come to a halt for anything nonconforming.

I believe this will pass, but it’s going to act as a great catalyst to get the downward spiral turning. Around the time this eases up, the crush of REO’s out there will start hitting the market, and both of these factors will baloon short sales…I’d like to spend some time on the data, but with short sales in the 20% range + REOS and a high vacancy rate, I have to believe will be at 50% highly motivated sellers throughout the Fall/Winter.

Stan

[stansd]

I can’t wait to see the sales figures for the next couple of months…they are going to be a disaster. With banks the size of countrywide facing liquidity crunches, lending has all but come to a halt for anything nonconforming.

I believe this will pass, but it’s going to act as a great catalyst to get the downward spiral turning. Around the time this eases up, the crush of REO’s out there will start hitting the market, and both of these factors will baloon short sales…I’d like to spend some time on the data, but with short sales in the 20% range + REOS and a high vacancy rate, I have to believe will be at 50% highly motivated sellers throughout the Fall/Winter.

Stan

[stansd]

I can’t wait to see the sales figures for the next couple of months…they are going to be a disaster. With banks the size of countrywide facing liquidity crunches, lending has all but come to a halt for anything nonconforming.

I believe this will pass, but it’s going to act as a great catalyst to get the downward spiral turning. Around the time this eases up, the crush of REO’s out there will start hitting the market, and both of these factors will baloon short sales…I’d like to spend some time on the data, but with short sales in the 20% range + REOS and a high vacancy rate, I have to believe will be at 50% highly motivated sellers throughout the Fall/Winter.

Stan

[stansd]

Of course higher interest rates will reduce affordability. That’s one of the key reasons we are all talking about 20%-50% reductions in housing prices from current levels.

Income remains a key determinant of affordability, increased interest rates not withstanding. The fundamentals don’t change, but changes in the fundamentals drive changes in values (previous post was in response to the idea that income based analysis was worthless).

Rates (and spreads) on jumbo and subprime loans will be higher than in the past couple years, but these products will remain part of the mortgage landscape the current lack of availability notwithstanding. Rates will go up, home prices will go down, but income (along with interest rate levels) will remain a key determinant of how low they go.

Stan

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