It doens’t look good for CFC

[stansd]

I can’t wait to see the sales figures for the next couple of months…they are going to be a disaster. With banks the size of countrywide facing liquidity crunches, lending has all but come to a halt for anything nonconforming.

I believe this will pass, but it’s going to act as a great catalyst to get the downward spiral turning. Around the time this eases up, the crush of REO’s out there will start hitting the market, and both of these factors will baloon short sales…I’d like to spend some time on the data, but with short sales in the 20% range + REOS and a high vacancy rate, I have to believe will be at 50% highly motivated sellers throughout the Fall/Winter.

Stan

[barnaby33]

Sold out of my CFC Jan 08 $25 puts today. Needed to take money off the table…
I did the same. I wish I had waited till after lunch to liquidate, but man it was a great day for CFC shorts and puts today!

Josh

[barnaby33]

Sold out of my CFC Jan 08 $25 puts today. Needed to take money off the table…
I did the same. I wish I had waited till after lunch to liquidate, but man it was a great day for CFC shorts and puts today!

Josh

[barnaby33]

Sold out of my CFC Jan 08 $25 puts today. Needed to take money off the table…
I did the same. I wish I had waited till after lunch to liquidate, but man it was a great day for CFC shorts and puts today!

Josh

[davelj]

CFC will probably go lower – perhaps a lot lower – but it’s an unlikely BK candidate because it does have a franchise with perceived value (“perceived” being the operative word). Consequently, if things got really dicey, my guess is that someone like Chris Flowers would organize a group to recapitalize the company, albeit at a single-digit share price. The trick, whether an investor or depositor, is to figure out which depositories will end up handing the keys over to the regulators and which ones have a franchise – whether in the form of originations or deposits – that’s worth saving from an investor’s viewpoint. CFC has the perception of being something worth saving, although that could change over time…

[davelj]

CFC will probably go lower – perhaps a lot lower – but it’s an unlikely BK candidate because it does have a franchise with perceived value (“perceived” being the operative word). Consequently, if things got really dicey, my guess is that someone like Chris Flowers would organize a group to recapitalize the company, albeit at a single-digit share price. The trick, whether an investor or depositor, is to figure out which depositories will end up handing the keys over to the regulators and which ones have a franchise – whether in the form of originations or deposits – that’s worth saving from an investor’s viewpoint. CFC has the perception of being something worth saving, although that could change over time…

[davelj]

CFC will probably go lower – perhaps a lot lower – but it’s an unlikely BK candidate because it does have a franchise with perceived value (“perceived” being the operative word). Consequently, if things got really dicey, my guess is that someone like Chris Flowers would organize a group to recapitalize the company, albeit at a single-digit share price. The trick, whether an investor or depositor, is to figure out which depositories will end up handing the keys over to the regulators and which ones have a franchise – whether in the form of originations or deposits – that’s worth saving from an investor’s viewpoint. CFC has the perception of being something worth saving, although that could change over time…

[Wiley]

Merrill Lynch suggested today that bankruptcy is a possibility for Countrywide, the largest entity of its kind according to Bloomberg.

[Wiley]

Merrill Lynch suggested today that bankruptcy is a possibility for Countrywide, the largest entity of its kind according to Bloomberg.

[Wiley]

Merrill Lynch suggested today that bankruptcy is a possibility for Countrywide, the largest entity of its kind according to Bloomberg.

[Wiley]

Merrill Lynch suggested today that bankruptcy is a possibility for Countrywide, the largest entity of its kind according to Bloomberg.

[Wiley]

Merrill Lynch suggested today that bankruptcy is a possibility for Countrywide, the largest entity of its kind according to Bloomberg.

[Wiley]

Merrill Lynch suggested today that bankruptcy is a possibility for Countrywide, the largest entity of its kind according to Bloomberg.

[kev374]

it’s quite a possibility that Countrywide will go the BK route. This shakeout has a loooonnnnng way to go with the ARM resets barely begining. When all the REOs pile up and the liquidity situation exacerbates we will get a better idea but IMO things are going to get much much worse from this point onwards and if CFC’s shares are already plumetting then the future looks pretty bleak!

[kev374]

it’s quite a possibility that Countrywide will go the BK route. This shakeout has a loooonnnnng way to go with the ARM resets barely begining. When all the REOs pile up and the liquidity situation exacerbates we will get a better idea but IMO things are going to get much much worse from this point onwards and if CFC’s shares are already plumetting then the future looks pretty bleak!

[Author]

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