[stansd]

This would be funny if it weren’t almost exactly what is happening. Only difference is that the Money is going to banks instead of employers.

Only question now is whether a decrease in the velocity of money (coupled with demand side weakness-shout out to the Keynesians amongst us) is enough to offset the increase in the supply so that inflation doesn’t blow the roof off.

As a side note, I’m convinced income inequality is going to really shrink in the next few years…wages will stay stagnant at the low end and unemployment will increase, but stock gains, bonuses, options, principal invesments, etc. will be absolutely hammered. The excesses of the past years have caused this and reality will set in.

Stan

[stansd]

This would be funny if it weren’t almost exactly what is happening. Only difference is that the Money is going to banks instead of employers.

Only question now is whether a decrease in the velocity of money (coupled with demand side weakness-shout out to the Keynesians amongst us) is enough to offset the increase in the supply so that inflation doesn’t blow the roof off.

As a side note, I’m convinced income inequality is going to really shrink in the next few years…wages will stay stagnant at the low end and unemployment will increase, but stock gains, bonuses, options, principal invesments, etc. will be absolutely hammered. The excesses of the past years have caused this and reality will set in.

Stan

[stansd]

This would be funny if it weren’t almost exactly what is happening. Only difference is that the Money is going to banks instead of employers.

Only question now is whether a decrease in the velocity of money (coupled with demand side weakness-shout out to the Keynesians amongst us) is enough to offset the increase in the supply so that inflation doesn’t blow the roof off.

As a side note, I’m convinced income inequality is going to really shrink in the next few years…wages will stay stagnant at the low end and unemployment will increase, but stock gains, bonuses, options, principal invesments, etc. will be absolutely hammered. The excesses of the past years have caused this and reality will set in.

Stan

[stansd]

This would be funny if it weren’t almost exactly what is happening. Only difference is that the Money is going to banks instead of employers.

Only question now is whether a decrease in the velocity of money (coupled with demand side weakness-shout out to the Keynesians amongst us) is enough to offset the increase in the supply so that inflation doesn’t blow the roof off.

As a side note, I’m convinced income inequality is going to really shrink in the next few years…wages will stay stagnant at the low end and unemployment will increase, but stock gains, bonuses, options, principal invesments, etc. will be absolutely hammered. The excesses of the past years have caused this and reality will set in.

Stan

[stansd]

This would be funny if it weren’t almost exactly what is happening. Only difference is that the Money is going to banks instead of employers.

Only question now is whether a decrease in the velocity of money (coupled with demand side weakness-shout out to the Keynesians amongst us) is enough to offset the increase in the supply so that inflation doesn’t blow the roof off.

As a side note, I’m convinced income inequality is going to really shrink in the next few years…wages will stay stagnant at the low end and unemployment will increase, but stock gains, bonuses, options, principal invesments, etc. will be absolutely hammered. The excesses of the past years have caused this and reality will set in.

Stan

[stansd]

I keep trying to do a little math here. My recollection is that sales are running at under 2,000/month for resale homes + condos.

If that’s the case, some other thoughts: The short sale monitor has 40% of inventory as short. I think there is double counting there, but even if it’s 20%, that’s over 3,000 short sale listings.

Then, assuming The NOD/NOT ratio continues to hold, we’ll have 2K NOT’s hitting inventory every month.

So, we are approaching the point at which the number of NOT’s going into the pipeline is higher than the number of sales coming out of the pipeline.

On the assumption that the banks are going to dump this stuff, we have some really massive pricing declines that are going to materialize this spring selling season.

Certainly many of the NOD’s and some of the shorts are one and the same, but my bet is that well over half the transactions in the next six months will be shorts + REO’s (wold love feedback from those more in the know here).

Qualitatively, I live in RB, and have seen 3 or 4 listings as short or REOS near where I live (these have been sporadic at best previously), and being priced aggressively (10-20% below comps). I’m also assuming that much of that NOD/NOT growth is the blob spreading beyond East County.

This is getting very interesting-low rates and rebate checks notwithstanding.

20% down in FY08 possible?

Stan

[stansd]

I keep trying to do a little math here. My recollection is that sales are running at under 2,000/month for resale homes + condos.

If that’s the case, some other thoughts: The short sale monitor has 40% of inventory as short. I think there is double counting there, but even if it’s 20%, that’s over 3,000 short sale listings.

Then, assuming The NOD/NOT ratio continues to hold, we’ll have 2K NOT’s hitting inventory every month.

So, we are approaching the point at which the number of NOT’s going into the pipeline is higher than the number of sales coming out of the pipeline.

On the assumption that the banks are going to dump this stuff, we have some really massive pricing declines that are going to materialize this spring selling season.

Certainly many of the NOD’s and some of the shorts are one and the same, but my bet is that well over half the transactions in the next six months will be shorts + REO’s (wold love feedback from those more in the know here).

Qualitatively, I live in RB, and have seen 3 or 4 listings as short or REOS near where I live (these have been sporadic at best previously), and being priced aggressively (10-20% below comps). I’m also assuming that much of that NOD/NOT growth is the blob spreading beyond East County.

This is getting very interesting-low rates and rebate checks notwithstanding.

20% down in FY08 possible?

Stan

[stansd]

I keep trying to do a little math here. My recollection is that sales are running at under 2,000/month for resale homes + condos.

If that’s the case, some other thoughts: The short sale monitor has 40% of inventory as short. I think there is double counting there, but even if it’s 20%, that’s over 3,000 short sale listings.

Then, assuming The NOD/NOT ratio continues to hold, we’ll have 2K NOT’s hitting inventory every month.

So, we are approaching the point at which the number of NOT’s going into the pipeline is higher than the number of sales coming out of the pipeline.

On the assumption that the banks are going to dump this stuff, we have some really massive pricing declines that are going to materialize this spring selling season.

Certainly many of the NOD’s and some of the shorts are one and the same, but my bet is that well over half the transactions in the next six months will be shorts + REO’s (wold love feedback from those more in the know here).

Qualitatively, I live in RB, and have seen 3 or 4 listings as short or REOS near where I live (these have been sporadic at best previously), and being priced aggressively (10-20% below comps). I’m also assuming that much of that NOD/NOT growth is the blob spreading beyond East County.

This is getting very interesting-low rates and rebate checks notwithstanding.

20% down in FY08 possible?

Stan

[stansd]

I keep trying to do a little math here. My recollection is that sales are running at under 2,000/month for resale homes + condos.

If that’s the case, some other thoughts: The short sale monitor has 40% of inventory as short. I think there is double counting there, but even if it’s 20%, that’s over 3,000 short sale listings.

Then, assuming The NOD/NOT ratio continues to hold, we’ll have 2K NOT’s hitting inventory every month.

So, we are approaching the point at which the number of NOT’s going into the pipeline is higher than the number of sales coming out of the pipeline.

On the assumption that the banks are going to dump this stuff, we have some really massive pricing declines that are going to materialize this spring selling season.

Certainly many of the NOD’s and some of the shorts are one and the same, but my bet is that well over half the transactions in the next six months will be shorts + REO’s (wold love feedback from those more in the know here).

Qualitatively, I live in RB, and have seen 3 or 4 listings as short or REOS near where I live (these have been sporadic at best previously), and being priced aggressively (10-20% below comps). I’m also assuming that much of that NOD/NOT growth is the blob spreading beyond East County.

This is getting very interesting-low rates and rebate checks notwithstanding.

20% down in FY08 possible?

Stan

[stansd]

I keep trying to do a little math here. My recollection is that sales are running at under 2,000/month for resale homes + condos.

If that’s the case, some other thoughts: The short sale monitor has 40% of inventory as short. I think there is double counting there, but even if it’s 20%, that’s over 3,000 short sale listings.

Then, assuming The NOD/NOT ratio continues to hold, we’ll have 2K NOT’s hitting inventory every month.

So, we are approaching the point at which the number of NOT’s going into the pipeline is higher than the number of sales coming out of the pipeline.

On the assumption that the banks are going to dump this stuff, we have some really massive pricing declines that are going to materialize this spring selling season.

Certainly many of the NOD’s and some of the shorts are one and the same, but my bet is that well over half the transactions in the next six months will be shorts + REO’s (wold love feedback from those more in the know here).

Qualitatively, I live in RB, and have seen 3 or 4 listings as short or REOS near where I live (these have been sporadic at best previously), and being priced aggressively (10-20% below comps). I’m also assuming that much of that NOD/NOT growth is the blob spreading beyond East County.

This is getting very interesting-low rates and rebate checks notwithstanding.

20% down in FY08 possible?

Stan

[stansd]

Interesting stuff, JG:

Any chance you could post the latest independent variables for this model-I’m curious to take a peak at sensitivities. For example, is the NOD number for December 2,784 (county number), or a smaller city number?

I’m curious if we see NOD’s rise 1,000 like we have over the last year, if that immplies (very roughly) a decline in median price of 20K 20-30 months from now, ceteris paribus.

Similar, we’ve seen sales decline by around 1,000/mo. over the last year, so I’m trying to figure out if that implies a 15K reduction in price (3*1,000*-5.3).

If I also knew the employment numbers, that would tell me what a 1% change in the unemployment rate would mean.

I’m not sure I’ve got those numbers right, though-my chief conclusion is that a continued rise in NOD’s will fuel some further declines, but fundamentally, we aren’t far from where employment really becomes the chief driver of additional distress (assumption being that NOD’s and Sales will stabilize in the next 6 months)

Stan

[stansd]

Interesting stuff, JG:

Any chance you could post the latest independent variables for this model-I’m curious to take a peak at sensitivities. For example, is the NOD number for December 2,784 (county number), or a smaller city number?

I’m curious if we see NOD’s rise 1,000 like we have over the last year, if that immplies (very roughly) a decline in median price of 20K 20-30 months from now, ceteris paribus.

Similar, we’ve seen sales decline by around 1,000/mo. over the last year, so I’m trying to figure out if that implies a 15K reduction in price (3*1,000*-5.3).

If I also knew the employment numbers, that would tell me what a 1% change in the unemployment rate would mean.

I’m not sure I’ve got those numbers right, though-my chief conclusion is that a continued rise in NOD’s will fuel some further declines, but fundamentally, we aren’t far from where employment really becomes the chief driver of additional distress (assumption being that NOD’s and Sales will stabilize in the next 6 months)

Stan

[stansd]

Interesting stuff, JG:

Any chance you could post the latest independent variables for this model-I’m curious to take a peak at sensitivities. For example, is the NOD number for December 2,784 (county number), or a smaller city number?

I’m curious if we see NOD’s rise 1,000 like we have over the last year, if that immplies (very roughly) a decline in median price of 20K 20-30 months from now, ceteris paribus.

Similar, we’ve seen sales decline by around 1,000/mo. over the last year, so I’m trying to figure out if that implies a 15K reduction in price (3*1,000*-5.3).

If I also knew the employment numbers, that would tell me what a 1% change in the unemployment rate would mean.

I’m not sure I’ve got those numbers right, though-my chief conclusion is that a continued rise in NOD’s will fuel some further declines, but fundamentally, we aren’t far from where employment really becomes the chief driver of additional distress (assumption being that NOD’s and Sales will stabilize in the next 6 months)

Stan

[stansd]

Interesting stuff, JG:

Any chance you could post the latest independent variables for this model-I’m curious to take a peak at sensitivities. For example, is the NOD number for December 2,784 (county number), or a smaller city number?

I’m curious if we see NOD’s rise 1,000 like we have over the last year, if that immplies (very roughly) a decline in median price of 20K 20-30 months from now, ceteris paribus.

Similar, we’ve seen sales decline by around 1,000/mo. over the last year, so I’m trying to figure out if that implies a 15K reduction in price (3*1,000*-5.3).

If I also knew the employment numbers, that would tell me what a 1% change in the unemployment rate would mean.

I’m not sure I’ve got those numbers right, though-my chief conclusion is that a continued rise in NOD’s will fuel some further declines, but fundamentally, we aren’t far from where employment really becomes the chief driver of additional distress (assumption being that NOD’s and Sales will stabilize in the next 6 months)

Stan

[stansd]

Interesting stuff, JG:

Any chance you could post the latest independent variables for this model-I’m curious to take a peak at sensitivities. For example, is the NOD number for December 2,784 (county number), or a smaller city number?

I’m curious if we see NOD’s rise 1,000 like we have over the last year, if that immplies (very roughly) a decline in median price of 20K 20-30 months from now, ceteris paribus.

Similar, we’ve seen sales decline by around 1,000/mo. over the last year, so I’m trying to figure out if that implies a 15K reduction in price (3*1,000*-5.3).

If I also knew the employment numbers, that would tell me what a 1% change in the unemployment rate would mean.

I’m not sure I’ve got those numbers right, though-my chief conclusion is that a continued rise in NOD’s will fuel some further declines, but fundamentally, we aren’t far from where employment really becomes the chief driver of additional distress (assumption being that NOD’s and Sales will stabilize in the next 6 months)

Stan

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