[speaker]

I apologize for sounding smarmy. I can assure you that it is not my intention; I’m just guilty of laying on too much sarcasm.

“As for why it goes up faster and down slower…the answer is EMOTIONS!”

This logic is confuses me because emotions is what caused the recent price run-up in home prices to unnatural heights. Emotions were influenced, as we have come to find out, by speculative buyers snatching up multiple properties with sketchy, short term loans (ARMs, I/Os, etc.). People were emotionally driven to buy a home no matter what the cost because they feared being priced out of the market forever. Their emotions drove them to make some pretty bad financial decisions as prices went up. So again, how will emotions not play into all of this as prices go down? Especially when ARMs are going to reset in the next 2 years (trillions$) and those people that are stuck in homes that haven’t appreciated enough (or depreciated in some places) to where they can refinance? Can you imagine the emotions that would influence someone’s financial decision making process as they watch their mortgage payments go up, a lot, when the ARMs reset and they can’t refinance? How then, can emotions not influence people into repeating an equally bad financial decision as prices go down? If more and more people start placing their homes on the market it will add to the inventory thus driving prices down. Emotions can’t be charted and recorded. Therefore, to claim that the market won’t crash in a short period of time because of their emotions influencing them to hold on to their properties doesn’t hold a lot water.

“my children feel safe and secure in their home”
Now that sounds like you are being condescending. Are you implying that children growing up in a rental home are not as secure or safe? I’ll take that statement as payment for my smarmy remarks.

“End of line.”

[speaker]

“It’s different this time”

I wasn’t quoting you; I was merely parrotting what I have been hearing over and over from the permabulls for the past few years regarding home prices.

When I mean hard and fast I mean hard and fast like a roller coaster:

just moving right along at a slow pace ’til you reach the top and then…..you hit the top….then there is that giant pause…..and whhhhhhhheeeeeeeeeeee!!!!!!!

While I appreciate your numbers and the facts you bring, it is foolish to think that somehow N. Coast County will be insulated from a crash when the rest of the county goes down. Only 9 detached homes have been sold since Halloween? Hmmm…that doesn’t sound like a whole lot to me. Additionally, that means there are 521 homes (same ones I imagine) for sale. That is 1.8 homes sold/month (I estimated at 5 months). Therefore, it will take…break out the abacus….289 months to sell current inventory. That is of course no more detached homes go on the market which will only exacerbate the situation.

While I can imagine the more desirable places (N. County Coast) resisting a downward trend in prices, it is inevitable that even these desirable places will be brought down by the rest of the county. A lot. With lending rules tightening, rates going up, Americans (San Diegans as well) living with greater debt and the savings rate at the lowest point in history, who is going to buy these remaining 529 homes?

Here is the one thing that just puzzles me to no end:
if the real estate market took off so quickly in such a short period of time, why can’t it come down just as quickly?

answer from the permabulls: because it’s different this time!

“End of line.”

[speaker]

Ahem….SD realtor:
“For the record, I think prices will return to 2003 levels and then settle there for a few years.”

When you take into account that the majority of recent homebuyers (past 2 – 3 years) are ARMed, then prices returning to their 2003 values will wipe a lot of them out. They will most certainly be squeezed even harder if prices stay flat. Even if prices stay flat, inflation will eat away at any equity gains so that is not a good scenario either. The logic of home prices returning to their 2003 prices is somewhat circular. If homes were overpriced in 2003 then they will still be overpriced in 2006 or 2007.

Nope, this thing is coming down hard and fast. Remember, “It’s different this time!!”

“End of line.”

[speaker]

i live in N. county and my condo complex is 0.5 miles from the beach. when i moved here last november, there was only one unit for sale and it sold last month. since then,there are 7 units for sale.

very curious pattern indeed.

“End of line.”

[speaker]

how come my previous post got cut off??

“End of line.”

[speaker]

here goes nothing:

The Mrs. and I recently moved to the North County and we are RENTING a nice, spacious 3 bd/2.5 condo. near the beach (<1 mile).

Well, since today is Sunday I decided to go and look at the open homes in my complex only. There are SIX....SIX...condos for sale in my complex alone. Five out of the six have the exact floor plan (sq ft. bd/ba ratio etc.). One is a 2 bd/2.5 bath so it is the cheapest of the bunch.

here is the breakdown for the 3bd/2.5ba:
1.) 608 - 625....smallest patio but look at the ocean!!
2.) 539,000
3.) 500,000 - 549,000
4.) 568,000 - OBO....OBO?!?! what am I buying, a car?!?!
5.) unknown...no flier but it had a for sale sign out front.

the lone 2 bd/2.5 bath:
495,000....holy denial, batman. this owner better drop the price and fast.

Let's see, everyone wants to live in California....the market is different this time....we have a stable, diverse economy that isn't tied to one sector....San Diego has beautiful weather....yep, I'm sold!!! Honey!? Better call that guy you know who has a cousin in real estate that we want to lock in our 100% financed I/O option ARM because we are going to overbid on one of these little gems in our complex before it's too late!!!!!
"End of line."

[speaker]

I have posted this story before but I will post it again as a follow-on.

My friend just moved his family into one the giant Mc-Mansions in San Elijo. He is paying only HALF!!! of the owner’s mortgage. How does my friend know this? BECAUSE THE OWNER TOLD HIM SO!!! I’m sure this Mc-Mansion was purchased near the 1 Mil mark so you can imagine what the mortgage must be.

Unbelieveable. Well, since my friend doesn’t want to have to move his family again anytimg soon he signed an 18 month lease. Stop and think about that for a second: the owner is committing himself to a 50% loss every month for the next 18 months. The owner can’t sell the house because there are 3 other homes with the exact same floorplan on his street that haven’t sold in months.

“End of line.”

[speaker]

HA!! Talk about perfect timing. I received my Fortune magazine the other day and there was a one page review about some research done on Economic predictions by experts from a professor at UC Berkeley.

This professor concluded after several years of research that “experts” are no better at predicting economic trends than the average citizen.

heh….

“End of line.”

[speaker]

la jolla and del mar are fairly ‘bubble’ proof. people just have to have that la jolla address to maintain their status symbol. the same would apply for carmel valley/del mar because of the schools.

my uneducated guess would be that you can expect single digit % changes (+ or – over the next year or two) but that the prices in these areas will do relatively well compared to inland areas of the county.

the high end homes will see a big drop, though. i hope good ol’ toni cieri has made her money because she has three signs practically on the same street in del mar. her asking prices are in the 2 – 4 million range. the homes in these ranges will correct first in a big way.

[speaker]

HA!!! you want to see signs?! just hang out anywhere there is a condo/townhome development. I just moved from Carmel Valley to Carlsbad….and let me tell you this:

For sale signs are sprouting like weeds. Some signs have actually grown in size (height and width) to out compete for attention from the other signs.

Additionally, I helped my friend into his new home in San Elijo hills. He is renting by the way, for 600$ below asking rent!!!! good golly miss molly. Anyway, there were/are 5 for sale signs just on the way to his place alone. I can’t even imagine how many for sale signs there are in his development. these signs were right on the way to his place. the kicker to all of this was these homes were of same square footage and room numbers. supply out pacing demand now??

[Author]

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