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spdrun
ParticipantI hope that his firing of Esper doesn’t mean that he’s firing everyone who doesn’t support using martial law to enforce his (Trump’s) attempts to steal the election. The last thing we need is Federal “baby-killers” being sent to states who refuse to rig their elections to fit Trump’s narrative…
Esper had been on shaky ground with the White House for months, a rift that deepened after he said in June that he did not support using active-duty troops to quell the large-scale protests across the United States triggered by the death of George Floyd at the hands of police. Esper also said military forces should be used in a law enforcement role only as a last resort.
ParticipantA 50/50 Senate is still a possibility … a lot of effort and money will be put into the runoff seats in Georgia, plus the 2022 election will decide another 1/3 of Senate seats. Our government gets a lot done … it’s just best at hurting people via endless wars, bloated military budgets, and mass incarceration. Imagine if that money were redirected to healthcare for all, reasonably priced (offline) college for those who get in, and fixing our disgraceful infrastructure.
Participant4. Trump managed to alienate Arizonans (11 votes) due to his mistreatment of McCain and Georgians (16 votes) due to his boycott of Rep. Lewis’s funeral (to be fair, Lewis also boycotted Trump’s inauguration) and comments about Lewis. Biden had some level of birth-state advantage in PA. In Michigan (16 votes), his feeding and defending the nutbags who wanted to kidnap and hang Gov. Whitmer for “treason” likely didn’t help his cause.
Hoist. Petard. He lost 43 votes by hacking off the branch that he was sitting on with a coal-rollin’ chainsaw.
ParticipantI think even if money matters to some people, being alive to spend it and having places to spend it safely ALSO matters.
ParticipantI know you are, but what am I?
I know you are, but what am I?
I know you are, but what am I?Trump has caused half of Americans to de-evolve into middle-school students.
ParticipantWhoever picked the axes for the second-digit analysis of Alleghany County needs to have some decency beat into them with a large slide rule. Lying With Graphs 101.
They used a y-axis range of 14 for Trump’s data (making it look more compressed) and a 4.5 range for Biden’s data.
ParticipantFor what it’s worth, SDNative2 was the one who posted the troll about TDS yip-yap-yip-yap, not sdduuuude. sdduuuude appears ready to listen to reason — why Benford’s Law is useless in this instance.
ParticipantThis explains it better than I can … basically, it’s an extension of the size issue that I mentioned previously:
Looking at the actual Chicago data at https://www.chicagoelections.gov/en/election-results-specifics.asp by precinct as of late November 7, the charts for Chicago look credible but the assumption that Benford’s law should apply do not, at least for Biden/Harris or the minor candidates.
Of the 2069 precincts (most of which are of broadly similar size), Biden/Harris won fewer than 100 votes in 12 precincts, and more than 999 votes in 4 precincts. All the rest (more than 99%) had three digits for their votes, violating the requirement that natural data satisfying Benford’s law should span several orders of magnitude. More than half the precincts (1100) gave Biden/Harris from 300 through to 499 votes, making 3 and 4 the most common first digits (the chart reflects this and is close to showing the actual frequencies by hudreds of votes, so 300-399 was the most common).
For Trump/Pence, votes were more widely dispersed: 99 precincts with 1-9 votes, 1339 precincts with 10-99, and 633 precincts with 100 or more votes. This dispersion over orders of magnitude allowed a greater chance of coming closer to matching Benford’s law.
For the minor candidates, they only reached double digits in a very small number of precincts (and got 0 votes in hundreds of precincts – not shown on the charts) so the charts are close to showing their actual vote distribution with censoring of 0 and 10+; again you would not expect Benford’s law to apply.
Chicago was an odd choice to investigate for suspected cheating in 2020 where the gap in Illinois was 12 percentage points (1960 when it was 0.2 percentage points might have been more interesting). I suspect it was chosen simply because the data is publicly available and the distortions caused by similar precinct size led to this non-Benford law result. You will see this elsewhere for similar reasons: in 2019 very few British MPs won a number of votes starting with 5-9, as their constituencies are of broadly similar sizes and the winners usually got in the range from 10,000 to 49,999 votes, again failing the spanning several orders of magnitude requirement.
ParticipantI was replying to “SDNative2”, not you, unless you have a sockpuppet account.
Anyway, we have WI, PA, NV, AZ, and GA, all of which have much larger margins of votes than Florida did in 2000 … a recount only changed Florida by about 1200 votes! The chances of Trump flipping 3-4 states are basically nil, unless the courts engage in outright manipulation — in which case, “by any means necessary” becomes the order of the day.
ParticipantI shouldn’t be arguing with an asshat blathering being “TDS”, but I’m bored and here goes:
There isn’t one close state that would flip the election like in 2000. Do you really think that multiple (3-4) states threw their elections as to favor Biden, while no fraud occurred to favor Trump?
If this election is handed to Trump, despite the will of the American people that it be otherwise, I hope that it will result in the American people taking matters into their own hands.
Thank God for COVID — it makes developing respiratory symptoms and staying home until a test comes back (in many states it takes 7+ days) very easy. Now imagine this beautiful fact being used to organize a nationwide strike or sickout! You can’t be fired for being too careful, know what I mean?
This should be the first step. If the next step involves the US tearing itself to pieces, so be it. If this country is handed to a scumbag with Fascist tendencies, it’s better off breaking up.
ParticipantBenford’s Law depends on the initial data set. Let’s say we have a set of states with 6,000,000 voters that tend to vote close to 50/50. Would their results follow Benford’s Law, or would 2 and 3 be the most common (likely only) first digits, without fraud?
Participant“Greater Idaho” sounds like the old plan for a “Deseret Republic” Mormon superstate, except further north.
ParticipantCouldn’t they wear MAGA-masks?
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