[spdrun]

Nationally, prices didn’t increase by 20-30% p/a.

San Diego: foreign investors, out-of-state investors, landlords, locals. It’s a desirable city.
SF: Googlers, general tech bubble folk.

A 20% correction could easily happen. Remember that property prices have been all over the map since 2008. 50% is much less likely.

Can’t you just buy a 1/1 condo in the $150k range — they do exist — and have her pay you rent for it?

$150 tax, $250 HOA = $400, 80% mortgage =~ $700/mo. $1100/mo is reasonable if it also gleans tax credits for depreciation, etc.

[spdrun]

If we want to use a 1980s analogy, 1980 was 2009. So we’re at 1986 now.

As far as people inheriting, what does that translate to in purchasing power considering the cost of housing now?

[spdrun]

It should stay steady in value, at least (IMHO). People who worked should be allowed to keep their savings, not run on the fucking treadmill like hamsters their whole lives.

[spdrun]

Depends if you keep your job, if tenants stay, etc 🙂 Unless you’re pulling in enough to not work already, which means this whole discussion is moot because you can retire with or without debt (debt service is just another expense). In which case, why are you tempting fate by wishing for inflation that might help or harm you?

Hint: not all goods, commodities, and market inflate at the same rate.

[spdrun]

AN: Difference is, I’m not done buying. So a good crash would give me an opportunity to buy more property, cheaper.

Shoveler: Well, nice thing about the 80s was the S&L crisis in the late 80s. Here’s hoping for a repeat of something like THAT!

BTW- we’re not energy-independent as far as oil, not at present anyway. And a low oil price will delay that for a long time, making us dependent on world market prices.

[spdrun]

Got it. Regardless, I wish you no luck whatsoever.

[spdrun]

You can do that anyway with leveraged property. If you bought in SD in 2009 or 2010, shouldn’t you already have quite a bit of equity?

[spdrun]

The-Shoveler: I don’t think that anyone can prognosticate a year in the future, let alone 50.

Think about this: what happens if oil production and conversion to alternative energy in the US is vastly slowed, then a full-on war involving Saudi Arabia breaks out in 2017? Causing oil to hit $400/bbl.

AN: I was exaggerating a bit. But seriously, if you want inflation to feel good about how much money you’re making, buy some Zimbucks.

[spdrun]

Careful what you wish for: meanwhile your purchasing power from that rocketing rental income will also be eroded by inflation. Do you want purchasing power or money?

If you want money, just get a few trillion Zimbabwe bucks, dump them on your bed, and wallow in them laughing maniacally.

Personally, I’m hoping for a repeat of 1987, 2001, or 2008.

[spdrun]

Nothing is forever — all empires fall. Even the US.

[spdrun]

Those $15 min wage jobs will be automated away really quickly. Who needs a Mickey Dee’s cashier when you can have a touch screen?

But why are you hoping for it? If you’re interested in the same things most people on this board are, it will increase the competition to buy cheap r.e. and rent it out.

What’s in it for you unless you’re getting $10/hr?

As far as deflation, if it happens with rates at zero, there may be little that can be done to prevent it (QE4 would be seen as an acknowledgment of economic failure, which might actually speed the process).

[spdrun]

And what do you think a stock crash will do to property?

[spdrun]

But you could have low rates coupled with deflation. Meaning that people that didn’t buy stocks, commodities, housing might be better rewarded for having held off.

Interest rates are only a part of the equation.

[spdrun]

If you’re putting the money into the right things, you’ll be fine. The right things might just not be savings accounts right now 🙂

[spdrun]

Unless you WANT to (say) use the rental to gain leverage over a professional relationship, of course.

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