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January 30, 2015 at 7:35 PM in reply to: Great Summary of the American Dream – Top List (ZeroHedge) #782459
spdrun
Participant^^^
Yep, that was a stupid metric to use. However, it doesn’t change the fact that working-age labor participation has been falling since the peak in the late 90s.
Participantjoec – where are those “blocks of homes” in the NYC area that are for sale and being bought up by Chinese buyers? There are very few recent developments with identical tract houses around NYC. And the foreclosure crisis hit the area differently. There really weren’t any overbuilt places where 8 out of 10 houses were up for distressed sale. Really nothing like parts of Riverside County out here. Nothing like Detroit either, except maybe in Camden, NJ outside of Philly.
The only thing I can think of are apartment and commercial buildings, but those tend not to be for amateurs. Probably some REIT buying. Also, some Indians (not Chinese) buying in very specific neighborhoods.
I’m watching the market around NYC (particularly in NJ). Inventory has tightened A LOT in NYC itself (at least in the good parts), but not much is changing in the NJ suburbs. If anything, the number of REOs has more than doubled over the past year and a half due to delayed judicial foreclosures hitting the market.
Lastly, what you’re saying is exactly what they were saying in the 1980s. Japan will buy the US up, etc, etc, etc. Didn’t happen so fast 🙂 Cash investors aren’t as strong hands as you think, either. If the market burps, they’re actually more likely to sell at (say) a 20% loss than mortgaged investors. Why? Because they can, unlike people with 3% down which have to wait for a short sale, deed in lieu, or foreclosure. There’s really no way to manage how many people run for the hills at once.
ParticipantSome loans have other requirements like owner occupancy that a person might want to get rid of.
Also, banks have been known to erroneously foreclose on homes with current payments. It took quite a bit of litigation and trouble to straighten those cases out. Best not to be involved with one at all if you don’t have to.
If you own a property worth say $800k that you can clear $4k per month from, have additional cash in the bank after you pay off the loan, and have no interest in buying more rental property, having the home paid off is a minimal-stress situation. Relax, kick back, collect the full $4k per month and enjoy. You can always get another loan against the property if you need cash in future.
ParticipantThere’s something to be said for not having to deal with bankster scum on a monthly basis. Free money isn’t free if it comes with strings attached like risk of foreclosure, insurance requirements, and escrow requirements.
ParticipantHopefully not. December pending home sales dropping is a good trend, and may it continue. Millennial twitter-twits should be renting, not buying.
ParticipantFortunately, the commensurate blah (or down) action in stocks should have a salutary effect on sentiment soon enough. As in, fewer people bleating to buy homes.
I’m all for more people buying gold — unless you’re making electronic circuitry, it’s not terribly useful not income producing, so it keeps the stupid money out of income-producing assets.
ParticipantSeems a delicate time where everybody is praying that nothing comes along to rock the boat.
And some people are praying a few torpedoes come along to sink the boat 🙂
ParticipantThank G-d for birth control!
(And who says that a future wife will like what one buys before marriage?)
ParticipantWhat’s wrong with Mira Mesa assuming you have a job within ~5 miles or so? It might not be as culturally interesting as more trendy areas, but it’s still within spitting distance of the beaches.
ParticipantForeclosures and short sales may have been a symptom of a return to normal pricing, not caused the return to normal pricing.
ParticipantWhat about sub-$400k fixers?
Something like this:
http://www.sdlookup.com/MLS-140065607-2663_Elyssee_San_Diego_CA_92123ParticipantNot necessarily: 203(k) rehab mortgage, portfolio loan, or hard money.
Participantgzz: the maximum time period between recessions since WW II has been something like a decade. By that metric alone, US is likely to go back into recession in the next few years. Southern CA property market is highly volatile. It doesn’t take a change in interest rates, just a loss of confidence (say due to stocks falling 25%) to correct prices.
As to prices being below their peak, so what? That’s like saying Bernie Madoff is mentally healthy as compared to Charles Manson.
ParticipantSounds like a job for the neighborhood skater kid at a few bucks per hour 🙂
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