[SK in CV]

[quote=DWCAP]
What he means is that with more American households in the future, more new houses will be needed for them to live in. Therefore, long term, new housing is bullish.

[/quote]

Then bullish would make sense. But what he said was

[quote=outtamojo]
Lack of building and less than trend household formation are bullish for prices in the far out future.[/quote]

“less than trend” sounds like he’s saying that household formation is going down. Which I think is probably true. I’m shorting whatever he’s buying.

[SK in CV]

[quote=DWCAP]
What he means is that with more American households in the future, more new houses will be needed for them to live in. Therefore, long term, new housing is bullish.

[/quote]

Then bullish would make sense. But what he said was

[quote=outtamojo]
Lack of building and less than trend household formation are bullish for prices in the far out future.[/quote]

“less than trend” sounds like he’s saying that household formation is going down. Which I think is probably true. I’m shorting whatever he’s buying.

[SK in CV]

[quote=DWCAP]
What he means is that with more American households in the future, more new houses will be needed for them to live in. Therefore, long term, new housing is bullish.

[/quote]

Then bullish would make sense. But what he said was

[quote=outtamojo]
Lack of building and less than trend household formation are bullish for prices in the far out future.[/quote]

“less than trend” sounds like he’s saying that household formation is going down. Which I think is probably true. I’m shorting whatever he’s buying.

[SK in CV]

[quote=DWCAP]
What he means is that with more American households in the future, more new houses will be needed for them to live in. Therefore, long term, new housing is bullish.

[/quote]

Then bullish would make sense. But what he said was

[quote=outtamojo]
Lack of building and less than trend household formation are bullish for prices in the far out future.[/quote]

“less than trend” sounds like he’s saying that household formation is going down. Which I think is probably true. I’m shorting whatever he’s buying.

[SK in CV]

[quote=outtamojo][quote=Arraya][quote=outtamojo]” Lack of building and less than trend household formation are bullish for prices in the far out future.[/quote]

This is making a huge assumption that we will be going back to historic economic growth patterns when all evidence points the contrary and in fact is probably impossible.[/quote]

In a nutshell, your assumptions are just as huge as mine and require just as much faith.[/quote]

I’m confused by what you’re saying. How can lower household formation increase demand? I think you’re right on the household formation, at least for the next 10 years. There is certainly conflicting data, but I suspect household formation will be almost flat for as much as the next 20 years as boomers downsize and die. If we already have an over supply of housing, then demand will not rise. Neither will prices. Possibly unaffected by other economic growth.

[SK in CV]

[quote=outtamojo][quote=Arraya][quote=outtamojo]” Lack of building and less than trend household formation are bullish for prices in the far out future.[/quote]

This is making a huge assumption that we will be going back to historic economic growth patterns when all evidence points the contrary and in fact is probably impossible.[/quote]

In a nutshell, your assumptions are just as huge as mine and require just as much faith.[/quote]

I’m confused by what you’re saying. How can lower household formation increase demand? I think you’re right on the household formation, at least for the next 10 years. There is certainly conflicting data, but I suspect household formation will be almost flat for as much as the next 20 years as boomers downsize and die. If we already have an over supply of housing, then demand will not rise. Neither will prices. Possibly unaffected by other economic growth.

[SK in CV]

[quote=outtamojo][quote=Arraya][quote=outtamojo]” Lack of building and less than trend household formation are bullish for prices in the far out future.[/quote]

This is making a huge assumption that we will be going back to historic economic growth patterns when all evidence points the contrary and in fact is probably impossible.[/quote]

In a nutshell, your assumptions are just as huge as mine and require just as much faith.[/quote]

I’m confused by what you’re saying. How can lower household formation increase demand? I think you’re right on the household formation, at least for the next 10 years. There is certainly conflicting data, but I suspect household formation will be almost flat for as much as the next 20 years as boomers downsize and die. If we already have an over supply of housing, then demand will not rise. Neither will prices. Possibly unaffected by other economic growth.

[SK in CV]

[quote=outtamojo][quote=Arraya][quote=outtamojo]” Lack of building and less than trend household formation are bullish for prices in the far out future.[/quote]

This is making a huge assumption that we will be going back to historic economic growth patterns when all evidence points the contrary and in fact is probably impossible.[/quote]

In a nutshell, your assumptions are just as huge as mine and require just as much faith.[/quote]

I’m confused by what you’re saying. How can lower household formation increase demand? I think you’re right on the household formation, at least for the next 10 years. There is certainly conflicting data, but I suspect household formation will be almost flat for as much as the next 20 years as boomers downsize and die. If we already have an over supply of housing, then demand will not rise. Neither will prices. Possibly unaffected by other economic growth.

[SK in CV]

[quote=outtamojo][quote=Arraya][quote=outtamojo]” Lack of building and less than trend household formation are bullish for prices in the far out future.[/quote]

This is making a huge assumption that we will be going back to historic economic growth patterns when all evidence points the contrary and in fact is probably impossible.[/quote]

In a nutshell, your assumptions are just as huge as mine and require just as much faith.[/quote]

I’m confused by what you’re saying. How can lower household formation increase demand? I think you’re right on the household formation, at least for the next 10 years. There is certainly conflicting data, but I suspect household formation will be almost flat for as much as the next 20 years as boomers downsize and die. If we already have an over supply of housing, then demand will not rise. Neither will prices. Possibly unaffected by other economic growth.

[SK in CV]

[quote=outtamojo]
Imo it doesn’t matter what builders believe. Lack of building and less than trend household formation are bullish for prices in the far out future.[/quote]

I think you mean bearish, no?

[SK in CV]

[quote=outtamojo]
Imo it doesn’t matter what builders believe. Lack of building and less than trend household formation are bullish for prices in the far out future.[/quote]

I think you mean bearish, no?

[SK in CV]

[quote=outtamojo]
Imo it doesn’t matter what builders believe. Lack of building and less than trend household formation are bullish for prices in the far out future.[/quote]

I think you mean bearish, no?

[SK in CV]

[quote=outtamojo]
Imo it doesn’t matter what builders believe. Lack of building and less than trend household formation are bullish for prices in the far out future.[/quote]

I think you mean bearish, no?

[SK in CV]

[quote=outtamojo]
Imo it doesn’t matter what builders believe. Lack of building and less than trend household formation are bullish for prices in the far out future.[/quote]

I think you mean bearish, no?

[SK in CV]

[quote=flu]I never thought that a tax credit would have generatde so much demand…Boy was I wrong about that.[/quote]

As a practical matter, it didn’t. New home sales, even during the end of the tax credit period were dismal, still significantly lower (in number of units sold) than any time in the last 60 years, save for a handful of months. (Note, thats months, not years. A handful of months out of the last 720 months, probably longer.)

The market hasn’t responded sharply because it’s not news.

New home sales won’t move much until there is demand. There won’t be demand until there is a shortage of resale homes. Seems unlikely that will be any time soon, in most markets.

It’s all part of the puzzle. Working backwards here, there can’t (or won’t) be inflation unless there is a robust recovery, which probably can’t happen unless there is very healthy job creation. As a practical matter, there can’t be healthy job creation until there is an increase in new home construction spending. From that point backwards, see above.

[Author]

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