[SK in CV]

[quote=SD Realtor]I think it is an illustration of success from the perspective of the banks and govt. They implemented a plan using taxpayer money that consisted of a slower methodical manner in which to liquidate highly depreciated assets without totally cratering the bubbled market they created. The plan is by no means complete however it seems to be chugging along just fine. What you are seeing is simply the next phase of it. It is not that hard at all to get delinquent homeowners out of homes. If you look at the chronology, if someone has been in a home a year or two without paying, taking an extra couple of months to get them out is a piece of cake.

Sorry folks, no tsunami.[/quote]

Great comment. Though I disagree with you that it was all part of a plan. I think it was, at least in part, the motivation of Treasury, probably the Fed, to a lesser extent the FDIC, and maybe the GSE’s. But not on the part of the loan servicers, which I believe control close to 80% of the market.

Their motivation was/is the complete opposite. Foreclose, as quickly as possible, whether legal, appropriate, or financially beneficial is there motivation. But as they have proven time and time again, in every RE bubble, they are simply incompetent to do it right. Both at the beginning of the process, and once the REO is in their portfolio.

Ultimately, I think it has been nothing more than a major clusterfuck, but all the stars were properly aligned and it worked. Government action (HAMP and other non-mandatory mod programs, tax credits, most all of which were, IMNHO, both ill conceived and/or poorly implememnted.) helped the process. With unemployment ticking down, I think you are exactly right. The first stage has been a humungous success in mantaining some stability in the markets. With probably close to another eighteen months to two years of high delinquencies and foreclosures, there will still be high downward pressure on prices. Countered by slightly increased demand as a result of more consumers with paychecks, lower non-mortgage debt, improving credit.

It’s still going to be a delicate tightrope act. But if we have less than a 10% swing in prices (up or down) over the next two years, it will have to be considered an unmitigated success. Disorganized, improbable, accidental. But it might work.

Biggest threat to it failing miserably? Substantially increased housing starts in the next six months. Last thing the residential RE market needs is more inventory before the overhang is absorbed. Contra-intuitive to the economy as a whole. But still.

[SK in CV]

[quote=SD Realtor]I think it is an illustration of success from the perspective of the banks and govt. They implemented a plan using taxpayer money that consisted of a slower methodical manner in which to liquidate highly depreciated assets without totally cratering the bubbled market they created. The plan is by no means complete however it seems to be chugging along just fine. What you are seeing is simply the next phase of it. It is not that hard at all to get delinquent homeowners out of homes. If you look at the chronology, if someone has been in a home a year or two without paying, taking an extra couple of months to get them out is a piece of cake.

Sorry folks, no tsunami.[/quote]

Great comment. Though I disagree with you that it was all part of a plan. I think it was, at least in part, the motivation of Treasury, probably the Fed, to a lesser extent the FDIC, and maybe the GSE’s. But not on the part of the loan servicers, which I believe control close to 80% of the market.

Their motivation was/is the complete opposite. Foreclose, as quickly as possible, whether legal, appropriate, or financially beneficial is there motivation. But as they have proven time and time again, in every RE bubble, they are simply incompetent to do it right. Both at the beginning of the process, and once the REO is in their portfolio.

Ultimately, I think it has been nothing more than a major clusterfuck, but all the stars were properly aligned and it worked. Government action (HAMP and other non-mandatory mod programs, tax credits, most all of which were, IMNHO, both ill conceived and/or poorly implememnted.) helped the process. With unemployment ticking down, I think you are exactly right. The first stage has been a humungous success in mantaining some stability in the markets. With probably close to another eighteen months to two years of high delinquencies and foreclosures, there will still be high downward pressure on prices. Countered by slightly increased demand as a result of more consumers with paychecks, lower non-mortgage debt, improving credit.

It’s still going to be a delicate tightrope act. But if we have less than a 10% swing in prices (up or down) over the next two years, it will have to be considered an unmitigated success. Disorganized, improbable, accidental. But it might work.

Biggest threat to it failing miserably? Substantially increased housing starts in the next six months. Last thing the residential RE market needs is more inventory before the overhang is absorbed. Contra-intuitive to the economy as a whole. But still.

[SK in CV]

[quote=SD Realtor]I think it is an illustration of success from the perspective of the banks and govt. They implemented a plan using taxpayer money that consisted of a slower methodical manner in which to liquidate highly depreciated assets without totally cratering the bubbled market they created. The plan is by no means complete however it seems to be chugging along just fine. What you are seeing is simply the next phase of it. It is not that hard at all to get delinquent homeowners out of homes. If you look at the chronology, if someone has been in a home a year or two without paying, taking an extra couple of months to get them out is a piece of cake.

Sorry folks, no tsunami.[/quote]

Great comment. Though I disagree with you that it was all part of a plan. I think it was, at least in part, the motivation of Treasury, probably the Fed, to a lesser extent the FDIC, and maybe the GSE’s. But not on the part of the loan servicers, which I believe control close to 80% of the market.

Their motivation was/is the complete opposite. Foreclose, as quickly as possible, whether legal, appropriate, or financially beneficial is there motivation. But as they have proven time and time again, in every RE bubble, they are simply incompetent to do it right. Both at the beginning of the process, and once the REO is in their portfolio.

Ultimately, I think it has been nothing more than a major clusterfuck, but all the stars were properly aligned and it worked. Government action (HAMP and other non-mandatory mod programs, tax credits, most all of which were, IMNHO, both ill conceived and/or poorly implememnted.) helped the process. With unemployment ticking down, I think you are exactly right. The first stage has been a humungous success in mantaining some stability in the markets. With probably close to another eighteen months to two years of high delinquencies and foreclosures, there will still be high downward pressure on prices. Countered by slightly increased demand as a result of more consumers with paychecks, lower non-mortgage debt, improving credit.

It’s still going to be a delicate tightrope act. But if we have less than a 10% swing in prices (up or down) over the next two years, it will have to be considered an unmitigated success. Disorganized, improbable, accidental. But it might work.

Biggest threat to it failing miserably? Substantially increased housing starts in the next six months. Last thing the residential RE market needs is more inventory before the overhang is absorbed. Contra-intuitive to the economy as a whole. But still.

[SK in CV]

[quote=SD Realtor]I think it is an illustration of success from the perspective of the banks and govt. They implemented a plan using taxpayer money that consisted of a slower methodical manner in which to liquidate highly depreciated assets without totally cratering the bubbled market they created. The plan is by no means complete however it seems to be chugging along just fine. What you are seeing is simply the next phase of it. It is not that hard at all to get delinquent homeowners out of homes. If you look at the chronology, if someone has been in a home a year or two without paying, taking an extra couple of months to get them out is a piece of cake.

Sorry folks, no tsunami.[/quote]

Great comment. Though I disagree with you that it was all part of a plan. I think it was, at least in part, the motivation of Treasury, probably the Fed, to a lesser extent the FDIC, and maybe the GSE’s. But not on the part of the loan servicers, which I believe control close to 80% of the market.

Their motivation was/is the complete opposite. Foreclose, as quickly as possible, whether legal, appropriate, or financially beneficial is there motivation. But as they have proven time and time again, in every RE bubble, they are simply incompetent to do it right. Both at the beginning of the process, and once the REO is in their portfolio.

Ultimately, I think it has been nothing more than a major clusterfuck, but all the stars were properly aligned and it worked. Government action (HAMP and other non-mandatory mod programs, tax credits, most all of which were, IMNHO, both ill conceived and/or poorly implememnted.) helped the process. With unemployment ticking down, I think you are exactly right. The first stage has been a humungous success in mantaining some stability in the markets. With probably close to another eighteen months to two years of high delinquencies and foreclosures, there will still be high downward pressure on prices. Countered by slightly increased demand as a result of more consumers with paychecks, lower non-mortgage debt, improving credit.

It’s still going to be a delicate tightrope act. But if we have less than a 10% swing in prices (up or down) over the next two years, it will have to be considered an unmitigated success. Disorganized, improbable, accidental. But it might work.

Biggest threat to it failing miserably? Substantially increased housing starts in the next six months. Last thing the residential RE market needs is more inventory before the overhang is absorbed. Contra-intuitive to the economy as a whole. But still.

[SK in CV]

[quote=Ren]
My boy is 3, and he can fetch me a beer, tell me how many are left, then hand me the remote. All with great enthusiasm, fueled by Lucky Charms. Real-world application of important skills.

This is the point where fatherhood becomes worth it.[/quote]

Got a funny story that’s kinda related. A few years ago I was walking my main dog on the beach, and an early 20’s surfer dude came up and asked me what kind of dog I had. I told him the dog was an Akita. (he is dumb, but impressive looking. the dog, not the surfer.) Surfer asked me what he was bred for. I told him the breed was developed in Japan to hunt bear. “Hunt beer!? Whoa I gotta get me one!” he exclaimed. I didn’t respond. And then he asked if I had to train him to do that. Just a little, i told him. When he was a puppy, all he would do is bring me Sapporo, but now all i have to do is tell him any brand I want and he’ll run down to the basement and get it. Surfer boy looked at me quizzically and asked, almost piglike…”Seriously dude? You gotta basement?”

[SK in CV]

[quote=Ren]
My boy is 3, and he can fetch me a beer, tell me how many are left, then hand me the remote. All with great enthusiasm, fueled by Lucky Charms. Real-world application of important skills.

This is the point where fatherhood becomes worth it.[/quote]

Got a funny story that’s kinda related. A few years ago I was walking my main dog on the beach, and an early 20’s surfer dude came up and asked me what kind of dog I had. I told him the dog was an Akita. (he is dumb, but impressive looking. the dog, not the surfer.) Surfer asked me what he was bred for. I told him the breed was developed in Japan to hunt bear. “Hunt beer!? Whoa I gotta get me one!” he exclaimed. I didn’t respond. And then he asked if I had to train him to do that. Just a little, i told him. When he was a puppy, all he would do is bring me Sapporo, but now all i have to do is tell him any brand I want and he’ll run down to the basement and get it. Surfer boy looked at me quizzically and asked, almost piglike…”Seriously dude? You gotta basement?”

[SK in CV]

[quote=Ren]
My boy is 3, and he can fetch me a beer, tell me how many are left, then hand me the remote. All with great enthusiasm, fueled by Lucky Charms. Real-world application of important skills.

This is the point where fatherhood becomes worth it.[/quote]

Got a funny story that’s kinda related. A few years ago I was walking my main dog on the beach, and an early 20’s surfer dude came up and asked me what kind of dog I had. I told him the dog was an Akita. (he is dumb, but impressive looking. the dog, not the surfer.) Surfer asked me what he was bred for. I told him the breed was developed in Japan to hunt bear. “Hunt beer!? Whoa I gotta get me one!” he exclaimed. I didn’t respond. And then he asked if I had to train him to do that. Just a little, i told him. When he was a puppy, all he would do is bring me Sapporo, but now all i have to do is tell him any brand I want and he’ll run down to the basement and get it. Surfer boy looked at me quizzically and asked, almost piglike…”Seriously dude? You gotta basement?”

[SK in CV]

[quote=Ren]
My boy is 3, and he can fetch me a beer, tell me how many are left, then hand me the remote. All with great enthusiasm, fueled by Lucky Charms. Real-world application of important skills.

This is the point where fatherhood becomes worth it.[/quote]

Got a funny story that’s kinda related. A few years ago I was walking my main dog on the beach, and an early 20’s surfer dude came up and asked me what kind of dog I had. I told him the dog was an Akita. (he is dumb, but impressive looking. the dog, not the surfer.) Surfer asked me what he was bred for. I told him the breed was developed in Japan to hunt bear. “Hunt beer!? Whoa I gotta get me one!” he exclaimed. I didn’t respond. And then he asked if I had to train him to do that. Just a little, i told him. When he was a puppy, all he would do is bring me Sapporo, but now all i have to do is tell him any brand I want and he’ll run down to the basement and get it. Surfer boy looked at me quizzically and asked, almost piglike…”Seriously dude? You gotta basement?”

[SK in CV]

[quote=Ren]
My boy is 3, and he can fetch me a beer, tell me how many are left, then hand me the remote. All with great enthusiasm, fueled by Lucky Charms. Real-world application of important skills.

This is the point where fatherhood becomes worth it.[/quote]

Got a funny story that’s kinda related. A few years ago I was walking my main dog on the beach, and an early 20’s surfer dude came up and asked me what kind of dog I had. I told him the dog was an Akita. (he is dumb, but impressive looking. the dog, not the surfer.) Surfer asked me what he was bred for. I told him the breed was developed in Japan to hunt bear. “Hunt beer!? Whoa I gotta get me one!” he exclaimed. I didn’t respond. And then he asked if I had to train him to do that. Just a little, i told him. When he was a puppy, all he would do is bring me Sapporo, but now all i have to do is tell him any brand I want and he’ll run down to the basement and get it. Surfer boy looked at me quizzically and asked, almost piglike…”Seriously dude? You gotta basement?”

[SK in CV]

I haven’t seen the movie, but I have read quite a bit about it, both pro and con. There was an interesting article in USA Today (link below) earlier this week that raises the question of the veracity of the sudden increases in standardized test scores during Rhee’s tenure as the chancellor of the DC schools.

A good friend, a dedicated teacher in Baltimore, has told me she is a charlatan who will ultimately do more damage to the schools than good. After reading the article, I’m inclinded to believe him.

http://www.usatoday.com/news/education/2011-03-28-1Aschooltesting28_CV_N.htm

If you’ve seen the movie, the article is a must read.

[SK in CV]

I haven’t seen the movie, but I have read quite a bit about it, both pro and con. There was an interesting article in USA Today (link below) earlier this week that raises the question of the veracity of the sudden increases in standardized test scores during Rhee’s tenure as the chancellor of the DC schools.

A good friend, a dedicated teacher in Baltimore, has told me she is a charlatan who will ultimately do more damage to the schools than good. After reading the article, I’m inclinded to believe him.

http://www.usatoday.com/news/education/2011-03-28-1Aschooltesting28_CV_N.htm

If you’ve seen the movie, the article is a must read.

[SK in CV]

I haven’t seen the movie, but I have read quite a bit about it, both pro and con. There was an interesting article in USA Today (link below) earlier this week that raises the question of the veracity of the sudden increases in standardized test scores during Rhee’s tenure as the chancellor of the DC schools.

A good friend, a dedicated teacher in Baltimore, has told me she is a charlatan who will ultimately do more damage to the schools than good. After reading the article, I’m inclinded to believe him.

http://www.usatoday.com/news/education/2011-03-28-1Aschooltesting28_CV_N.htm

If you’ve seen the movie, the article is a must read.

[SK in CV]

I haven’t seen the movie, but I have read quite a bit about it, both pro and con. There was an interesting article in USA Today (link below) earlier this week that raises the question of the veracity of the sudden increases in standardized test scores during Rhee’s tenure as the chancellor of the DC schools.

A good friend, a dedicated teacher in Baltimore, has told me she is a charlatan who will ultimately do more damage to the schools than good. After reading the article, I’m inclinded to believe him.

http://www.usatoday.com/news/education/2011-03-28-1Aschooltesting28_CV_N.htm

If you’ve seen the movie, the article is a must read.

[SK in CV]

I haven’t seen the movie, but I have read quite a bit about it, both pro and con. There was an interesting article in USA Today (link below) earlier this week that raises the question of the veracity of the sudden increases in standardized test scores during Rhee’s tenure as the chancellor of the DC schools.

A good friend, a dedicated teacher in Baltimore, has told me she is a charlatan who will ultimately do more damage to the schools than good. After reading the article, I’m inclinded to believe him.

http://www.usatoday.com/news/education/2011-03-28-1Aschooltesting28_CV_N.htm

If you’ve seen the movie, the article is a must read.

[SK in CV]

[quote=sdrealtor]
BTW, in the typical real estate resale transaction there are about 30 to 40 people involved who are compensated in some way. Then the new homeowner will typically spend money on paint, flooring, appliances, furniture, landscaping and numerous other improvements. Saying the the resale of exisitng houses do nothing for GDP translates to not understanding what really occurs.[/quote]

Not nothing, but maybe 10 to 15% of new home construction. What, maybe 10 pts on a typical sale? 6% to you guys, maybe a couple for the lender, maybe a couple more for add on crap, title insurance, the fedex guy always gets his in there somewhere.

Compared to 60 to 90% or more for new construction.

[Author]

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