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sdrealtor
ParticipantPS,
It was a very rudimentary attempt on my part. I used the same graph as you and we are pretty close on where we put the ruler. My eye put the second point of the line somewhere between 2000 and 2001. When I extrapolated forward to late 2007/Early 2008, I ended up close to the 2003 data point.ParticipantMost definitely and even a little below. Spring 2004 represented absolute peak pricing for many homes and 2003 was a very fast moving market all year. Prices rose steadily throughout 2003, then rose dramatically in the Fall of 2003 and then shot through the moon in Early 2004. In many areas prices jumped $100 to $200K almost overnite in late Jan/early Feb 2004.
In many cases we are back to late 2003 prices. My guess is that we will go back to early to mid 2003 prices.
ParticipantTypical young hotshot Realtor (cant be much older than 25)who started to believe his own press releases. Bought a house he had no business buying and had no need to buy. I guess he’s learning his lesson.
ParticipantI doubt it is complete and the number is likely higher but at least we have something to follow now. When I mapped the locations of the properties it looks like there is a Great Wall of San Diego around the middle of SD county running along 78, the 15 and the 8. The vast majority is on the outside of the wall thus far.
ParticipantMy children are in the Encinitas School district and will attend the San Dieguito School District for middle and high school which are also very good. The upper level schools drop off a little as students get mixed in from some of the lower socio-economic schools in the area but are still very good. Its all up to the parents in my eyes to stay involved. I find the area I live in to be very family oriented and not nearly as pretentious as where I grew up.
BTW, my big bro went to U of M. Go Blue!
ParticipantOn a countywide basis there are currently 19,199 detached and attached properties on the market.
ParticipantI have children the same age as you and am very pleased with the education my children get. The key is being able to afford to live in a top ranked school district. The school my kids go to has very involved parents which make up for shortfalls and are the biggest reason the schools are top ranked. Parents that value education, are motivated to support it AND are able to support it are crucial. There are always parent voluneteers in the class room and there are constant fundraisers. We continuously donate school supplies, provide rides for field trips and support our schools in any way possible. I am very satisfied with the quality of their education.
As a footnote I grew up in another part of the country and attended public schools that are consistently among the best in the country so I believe that I have a good basis for comparison.
Another footnote, while I was fortunate to attend very privileged public schools, the schools we competed with in sports were extremely underprivileged and in some of the most dangerous cities in America.
Sadly, if you are not as fortunate (and make no mistake I feel VERY fortunate) to live in such an area I suspect much of what you fear is true. However, it is likely true for most areas of the the country.
ParticipantSome rudimentary regression analysis here: I just put a ruler on the screen and extended the 3 decade long straight line to see where the mean should have been for 2007. It looks to be roughly 2003 prices. I have long maintained that is where we need to get back to in order for prices to make sense again. Prices intuitively made sense to me back then as people with good jobs could afford to buy nice homes in nice neighborhoods with top rated schools. The real estate world went bonkers near the end of 2003 and got downright insane in early 2004. I stand by my prediction that the market for good homes in good areas will return to the levels in early/mid 2003. Anything beyond that would be a bonus for buyers.
Participant“I would much rather buy at Escala than up in La Costa. I like their 3-story detached houses. I just like the urban setting a lot more. Mission Valley is centrally located and is a better location for a young couple. If you buy small furniture, won’t feel that much space.”
FYI, 3 story properties are among the most difficult to sell and most heavily discounted. I would never buy a 3 story property unless the 1st story allowed you to walk onto the sand of the beach. If you feel the urge buy yourself a Stairmaster and put it in your 1 or 2 story home.
ParticipantBugs,
My point exactly. Its great that they make the data readily available. The Zestimate is not data and is very inaccurate. the rest of it is great.SDR
ParticipantApples and oranges. You didnt pay for the “mock appraisals” the borrower did. Appraisals arent estimating market value they are justifying a loan based upon other comparable sales. At least the appraisers saw the house. They saw what was next door, they saw if there are powerlines overhead or a busy street behind it. They saw the condition of the property relative to the comps.
Zillow on the otherhand is trying to provide estimates of market value. It is very very misleading. I love that they provide legitimate data points but trying to estimate value is a step beyond what they should do. Sales history, recent sales etc all empower the consumer to ask good questions and evaluate market value. OTOH, Arbitrary estimates based upon inaccurate data serve no purpose.
ParticipantI disagree and think it’s great that Zillow make sinformation available to consumers. What I dont think is great is the Zestimate which is very arbitrary. Provide tax information, sale information, comps etc. It’s all good. But estimating the value of a home you have never seen and comparing it against comps that you have never seen is a complete disservice to the consumer.
ParticipantHere’s the punchline…..
The one Hello Kitty mentioned on the market is not from the developer. Its a resale and a short sale at that! Buyer put 5% down and paid $999K in 10/05. Its on the market for $855K subject to lender approval.ParticipantI view N/A as a euphamism for a realtor that doesnt want to get sued for misquoting the lot size which is rarely accurate regardless of the source.
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