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sdrealtor
ParticipantFrom the listing of your Hilldale example:
“All the charm of a classic Kensington home with 21st century luxury and amenities. NOTHING WAS LEFT OUT when this SPACIOUS CANYON HOME ON A LARGE PARCEL was COMPLETELY GUTTED AND REMODELLED from the plumbing and electrical to the top-of-the-line finishes throughout.”
Additionally the prior sale you used was a none MLS sale and was likely a below market sale of total fixer property. If I had time I’d check the comps but that is likely the case.
This is typical of the ridiculous examples provided by the court jester!
ParticipantBeebo you are just silly. Instead of questioning my examples and debunking them with others you chose to pull ridiculous examples that are generally exceptions to the rule. You question me using some newer homes yet your first two examples are newer homes. You use predominantly single level homes with views which are rare and coveted. You use high end single level view homes in RSF and Coronado. View homes on top of Mt helix. You use homes that were bought and underwent dramatic remodeling. But the SINGLE BIGGEST FLAW is that you use nearly no sales that have closed in November. Who cares about homes that sold 6 months ago, you might have well use homes from another planet.
The truth is my examples speak to the overall market while yours speak to exceptions. Silly Boy!
ParticipantHey Luuuucyyyyy,
You got some splainin to do PS! Don’t you understand basic math? If house go from 100 to 200 that is 100% increase. If house go from 200 to 100 that is 50% decline.Just another example of not looking before you leap into doggie doo doo. BTW, where did you see that “half of homes were bought with 0% down”. You got more splaininnnnn to do!
Participantsure, give me a day or so. Santaluz will be tricky because most homes were purchased from the builders which means they were likely under contract 1 year before they actually closed when new and thus have an extra year of hidden appreciation. We need to find homes that were sold by the 2nd owner to a 3rd owner to eliminate the impact of all the post builder upgrades and landscaping. Here is one to get you started.
82XX Santaluz Village Green N
7/02 $732K (new from builder)
3/04 $1.1M
11/06 $1.03MTough to argue this one isnt back to early or pre-2004 pricing!!!
Participantduude,
When you check the chart make sure to pay attention to volume. Most ZIP codes with sales volume of at least 15 and more realistically 20 sales are down countywide. Several of the high volume ZIPs showing gains on the chart are places I know are getting slaughtered such as 92078 San Marcos. The low volume sales are more volatile and less valuable as a predictor. I don’t believe they are an accurate representation of anything. Also the relatively high volume ZIP’s that are up tend to be in garden spots of the county like Encanto and El Cajon.ParticipantJJ,
Don’t dismay, very few people have the ability, interest and access to the information necessary to prove what I know to be true. The decline is between 10 to 20% from the peak in most areas and I believe there is another 10 to 20% coming though it will take longer to transgress. SD will always be expensive and this is the way I thought about it several years ago and what I recommend to my clients. It is how I ended up living my dream.It will probably take you at least 3 purchases to get the house you really want. The key to getting there is buying at the right time AND buying the right houses along the way. The right houses will appreciate more relative to the market allowing you to make bigger jumps and will be more enjoyable places to live on stops along the road to the home they really dream of.
ParticipantPS,
No that is not where docteur lives nor is it as nice in my opinion. I nearly sold a house up the street from him last month (I know you will ask so here’s why: buyer changed mind and now wants something more expensive in Del Mar W of 5 which will take some time to find the right house) and if he is in one of the locations I believe his is in he has nothing to worry about. There are some spectacular lots/locations where he lives and I suspect he has one of them.I believe the reason for the drop is exactly what I predicted and have been expecting all along. While the fundamentals may have been weak behind the price increases from 2001 to 2003, there were ABSOLUTELY NONE behind the rise that occurred from Later 2003 through 2004. There was nothing, absolutely nothing to support these values and I expected tehm to evaporate almost overnight which they have. From here on out I don’t expect the decline to come so easy as there were some fundamentals behind these increases and we’ve already got 4 years of inflation to help prop them up further.
ParticipantCarmel valley anyone?
Lexington – one of the trophy neighborhoods in Carmel Valley. This is an example of 5BR/5.5BA 4700 sq ft home with a pool on a canyon view lot.
581X Brittany Forest
12/03 $1.31M (actually went into escrow in October BEFORE the big jump in early 2004)In 2004/2005 it could have sold for $1.5M +. Hell homes a few doors down that were 1000 sq ft smaller w/ less BR’s/BA’s and w/o pools were selling at $1.4M+.
This beauty just closed for $1.33M. ESSENTIALLY the same price it sold for in Fall of 2003.
Need more proof? Post a ZIP code…any ZIP code and I’ll provide a similar example but be forewarned. It could be even uglier.
ParticipantA couple more for good measure
787X Calle Olivia (prime house in great neighborhood)
7/04 $1.35M
8/06 $1.16M667X Cabela (prime house, prime area with great view)
6/04 $1.225M (sold without any landscaping)
7/06 $1.2M (sold after seller invested over $100K in landscaping, paint, window teatments etc.)293X Segovia 9/04 $639K sold in 7 days on busy street in original 1978 condition. Great area with no fees, great schools and mostly 1/4 acre lots.
31XX Quebrada Ct same floorplan on cul de sac with pool and much larger lot. It has been on market 49 day priced at $550K to $585K with no takers
I could do this all day and all night and all day and all night and all day and all night.
ParticipantBeebo-you are certifiably an idiot
While you see individual transactions I see the entire market. here is a perfect example of what I see. Santa Fe Trails is one of the best neighborhoods in So carlsbad/Encinitas. It is about 8 years old and has low mello roos and hoa fees. Children CAN WALK to elementary (Olivenhain Pioneer a perenial top 10 school in SD County),Diegueno Jr (very good) and La Costa Canyon HS (very good). It sits on the Olivenhain border. It is one of the best communities in what is a very prime area and they dont get much better than this.
There is a house that just sold for the 4th time in about 5 years. It was the largest model, well upgraded, on one of the best streets, on a cul de sac, with a much larger yard than most, a beuatiful in ground pool and sits on a the rim of a natural preserve/canyon. They dont get much better than this. REALLY!!! Here is the sales history
04/01 $675,000
06/02 $730,000
10/03 $870,000It did not sell during the peak years of 2004 and 2005. Anyone who was around at the beginning of 2004 knows that prices jumped between $100,000 and $200,000 between Fall 2003 and Summer 2004. This house could easily have sold for close to $1.1M in May 2004. An inferior home sold for $1M in March 2006 after prices had already fallen about 5% in the area.
It just closed at $915,000 and the sellers were very lucky to get that. This house which is a great house in a great neighborhood in a great location (overall and within the neighborhood just closed at a price well below what it would have sold for in January 2004. I could spend all day and nite posting similar scenarios but have better things to do.
It is not me who is incorrect.
ParticipantD & D,
Relax guys. PS would never and could never take a bet like that as all her decisions are made in the name of avoiding risk not jumping in with both feet. By her own admission, she sold her house because she saw the opportunity to take a profit of a magnitude she might not see again. By my calculations while it was a tidy sum, it was certainly not what I would call F U money.ParticipantIt’s important to remember that in reality there is NO national housing market just lots of local micromarkets. They could be correct when looking at statisitics on a national basis but in bubblicious markets like SD we got more work ahead of us.
ParticipantDon’t worry unless you want to live at the beach as beach properties are a different animal. Everybody really does want to live there myself included. In 20 years after my kids are grown you will either find me there or my ashes floating in the ocean.
ParticipantThank you Jim Klinger,
I’m not one who is married to his ideas and am willing to admit fault in my technique in order to produce a better measure. I included my search methodology in case someone could find a flaw in it and help me improve it. Henceforth, the count will reported based upon the improved search methodology suggested by Jim Klinger.FYI, I ran a double check on his numbers and came up with a few more today so I’m confident his count was good for yesterday.
The count starts over with a baseline on 11/27 of 933.
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