[sdrealtor]

Maybe my point wasnt clear. WE ARE NOT DONE! We are at or close to Late 2003/Early 2004 prices which are very very very diofferent from early 2003 prices. Getting back to early 2003 prices would entail losing another 20% or so.

[sdrealtor]

FSD,
On the entry level homes we had nearly 40% appreciation at least in my area. I dont care what the statistics say. I can provide real examples of homes with that much apprecitiation.

In my area a house that sold for $740,000 (March 2003) closed exactly 1 year and 21 days later for $1M (Early April 2004). That is an increase of 35% for the same house with no changes made. Less expensive homes had even higher % gains as everything jumped by $100,000 or more almost overnite.

BTW, that house would have a very hard time selling for $1M today.

[sdrealtor]

Good research! It is a very gray area and tough to prove as I mentioned early. Nonetheless it does exist.

[sdrealtor]

Not a bad example but there is a very big gap in this history between what prices were in early 2003 and the end of 2003/Early 2004. The biggest change in prices occurred in the 12 months from 2/03 to 2/04. It is really impossible to say that we are at 2003 prices unless you add a qualiier for what part of 2003.

In Spring 2004, a similar house on the same street sold for $550,000. I say we are back to late 2003/early 2004 prices in most areas. When you consider the sale in Spring 2004, this sale supports my view.

[sdrealtor]

CB
Hopefully a nicer living situation will help. The best rental properties go word of mouth and you just have to get lucky sometimes. One of my neighbors is getting relocated and keeping their house until they come back some time in the future (probably 10 years or so). I have until the end of next Summer to “pick my new neighbors” as tenants. The house is original owner occupied and thus has never been rented out. It will be a real plum for whomever gets it.

As for the church, do they have social events outside of Sunday services. Ours has a program that puts families with similar aged children into small social circles. We get together at least once a month if not more. Sometimes it’s a park or legoland with the kids, sometimes it’s a poker night for the guys or a Girl’s Night Out, A Sunday Brunch, celebrating the birth of a child or whatever. It has been wonderful for our family to have a different kind of connection than we share with the large circle of friends/neighbors that we have built otherwise.

[sdrealtor]

Nice advice but not necessarily right. There is something known as procurring cause. It’s pretty complex and a challenge to prove or get compensated for but nonetheless it exists.

[sdrealtor]

Not at all. I look for a find homes sold in 2003/2004 that have been resold in the last month or two with no significant changes made. You can’t get a better measure than same store sales. Beebo pulled repeat sales many of which were 6 months ago, had major remodels (one was a virtual teardown with the house taken down to the studs) and pulled the type of properties (many from high end areas) least effected. My selection had no bias just two identical data points Houses) with a 2 to 3 years sales gap.

I will gladly defend all of my examples and invite him to do the same.

[sdrealtor]

Update Time!! Thanks to Jim Klinge for the suggested improvement

978 up from 933 last week. Total SD County listings for attached and detached properties are 17,404 down from 18,070.

In the submarket I track very closely inventory is falling and pending are holding steady to slightly increasing. The inventory and pending numbers are actually better this year vs exactly 1 year ago. Inventory is up 18 but pendings are also up 18. This time last year the ratio of Actives to pendings was 3.5 and today it is 3.3. It constantly surprises me that things aren’t worse but they just aren’t yet. The next major test will come in Feb/Mar when inventory starts coming online rapidly. Will there be buyers?

On a side note, the high end ($2M+) seems to be going great. I have 2 clients in escrow on spec homes currently being built and expect to put another one in escrow this week. See you next week.

[sdrealtor]

SDC
You are welecome. There are plenty of sales just not the kind we need to prove the drop. Most of the sales are original owners selling homes built in the few years. This greatly understates their purchase price because the homes were generally purched 6 to 12 months prior to occupancy vs. typical resales which average 30 to 60 day escrows. In a rapidly rising market many of these homes had appreciated significantly before the original owner moved in. They also dont include the move in costs associated with painting, landscaping, hardscaping, window treatments etc which can easily total $50 to 100K. Even more for high end homes.

[sdrealtor]

CB,
Having both grown up on the other side of the country my wife and I definitely relate. It took at least 5 years until we really felt a part of things out here. There are so many people coming and going that it’s hard to find your way into a stable base of long term friendships like you left behind. Once you do, it’s great out here. We made lots of friends for many years but something was always missing. One thing that really helped us get grounded was getting involved in our place of worship not on a religious level but on a social level. It has made a huge difference in our lives finding people to share all the life cycle events with.

Best of luck to you.

SDR

[sdrealtor]

YES TO ALL! It truly is a wonderful life!

May you all be so blessed.

SDR

[sdrealtor]

PS,
I’m laughing pretty hard right now. I really don’t care what prices do. The truth is I hope they fall even further than you do. I would be as happy as you if not happier if they fall drastically. I probably have double if not triple or more times the assets as you do to take advantage of any decline.

Unemployment line in 2008, I suspect not but I do know 2007 is going to be huge for me. I already have more under contract set to close by next Summer than I did in each of the last 3 years. Don’t send your buddy Bob snooping because he won’t find any of these transactions in the MLS. As far as my house in foreclosure goes, that won’t happen as I could pay off my small mortgage in cash if I wanted.

SCMG, has a lot of great insight and I didn’t dismiss him. I said that I wouldnt relie on him as THE source of all things mortgage. I personally like what he has to say alot but I know there is alot more to complete the picture. I have very good friends in the secondary market, private financing market (Hard Money), wholesale lending who have been in the business 20+ years and who have different insights that add to the situation.

An example of someone with an option ARM is a friend involved in capital equipment sales that closes deals which generate 7 figure commissions. For him, it is a great cash flow device as he might earn nothing for months then BANG! a $1M+ check.

You are right in that Rich’s quote is to leave out the RE spin when analyzing the market. However that goes both ways. You have alot of good skills that you apply to the market but you wear your heart on your sleeve which slants your analysis in only one direction. As far sa the data goes, you klnow my feelings there.

As for the new businesses, both have absolutely nothing to do with RE. One is up and running already out of state as has been very profitably from day one. The other is 45 to 60 days out and should be even better.

I wish you the best of luck in your business and hope you someday find it through getting launched. I won’t be a customer though.

Peace to you

SDR

[sdrealtor]

PS,
You are barking up the wrong tree. I don’t know what the numbers are nor do I care. I am not putting my self out as a person who is going to deliver economic and statistical clarity that is missing. You really need to think through what you say better if you aim to do this.

For example, you say “Last year, 68% of all home loans in San Diego were negative amortization or interest only. 68% of all loans made are not even paying principal.” I personally know many people with loans that could be neg am but who are paying fully amortized payments. How big a percentage they make up is irrelevant as the point is that 68% of all loans are not paying principal is an untrue statement if only for the the dozen or so that I know.

As for SocalMtgguy, I’ve read his blog for a very long time and enjoy it immensely. He has some good points and is a good writer. But my impression is that he was in the business 2 to 4 years at most which certainly doesnt make him an expert that I would relie on as THE source of reliable info. You have a bad habit of relieing on inexperienced RE professionals as experts.

[sdrealtor]

So basically the half of all buyers bought with 100% financing was a figure conveniently pulled from thin air with real hard no data behind it. If you really intend to run a credible economic forecasting website you really need to lose that bad habit.

In God we trust, Everyone else birng data

[sdrealtor]

sdcellar
Sorry but 92127 doesnt have good data. To prove the point we need to see sales closing in the last 30 days which were bought as resales in late 2003/2004. They just don’t exist, at least I couldnt find any besides the one Santaluz example.

BTW, I know the broader market as well as anyone. My examples were all homes that resold in the same condition with no measureable changes. I know because I was inside these homes prior to both sales. Beebo’s laundry list was a joke full of major remodels, 6 month old sales and high end prime properties that arent impacted the same as the 90% of the general market he referred to yet failed to address. What a clown!

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