[sdrealtor]

Call me crazy but I would think there is a lot more money in suing billion dollar financial entities than cleaning up the messes of over extended consumers.

[sdrealtor]

Why pay interest if you may not even use it. Open a HELOC and watch the market. The rate will be higher if rates climb but you may not even do anything if the market doesnt drop significantly in nominal dollars.

[sdrealtor]

Update time

1,226 (about 2.5% higher) up from 1,196 last week.

Total SD County listings for attached and detached properties are 15,535 up from 15,460 barely a blip from last week. Inventory is leaving the market as quickly as it comes on. In my sub-market pendings have climbed 10% for the 2nd week in a row and active inventory is flat.

Everything I am seeing points to a much slower decline this year than last. As of today, I believe it will likely take at least 3 more years to get to the bottom if not longer. Any significant downward movement from here will require a significant increase in distress sales (which most here, myself included expect) because “casual sellers” dont seem like they will budge unless they become “must sellers”.

[sdrealtor]

Right on Concho,
If you compare returns on the value of the house the return might be lower but when you factor in your actual return based upon your investment (i.e. down payment) not to mention it provides a place to live, I suspect you would find differently. I put 20% down on my current home, while it has appreciated over 100% in value my investment has returned over 500% and my monthly nut is less than I could rent it for.

[sdrealtor]

For the record, that property is in the far reaches of northeast Carlsbad and no where near La Costa. At 2,050 sq ft it hardly qualifies as a McMansion either. If its the house I think it is, it has a street behind its small yard that serves as the entrance drive of an elementary school. While a big loss, those factors likely prevented its sale for the 1 year plus it languished on the market. Given its location its alot more representative of the market in Oceanside than La Costa.

[sdrealtor]

To cover both sides, its only fair to point out that there have been below median income wage earners buying above median priced homes using liar loans. This is probably more the exception though.

[sdrealtor]

Great point FSD! Not exactly perfect but it does point out the problem of trying to compare a median income to median home prices. It’s probably even more lopsided than that as many long time homewoners are moe likely to be among the lower wage service sector earners while more recent arrivals are more likely to be employed in the high paying sectors.

[sdrealtor]

It appears that the January 1st launch of her new venture has come and gone. Wouldn’t be surprised if she found a better way to spend her time/money than on a business model that has proven next to impossible to execute successfuly. Either way, I hope she’s doing OK.

[sdrealtor]

LBC,
Sometimes I see bullish signs and sometimes I see bearish signs but I just call them as I see them.

NC,
Sure the %age of defaults should be higher in 04 and 05 but lots of buyers during those years will be fine. There are lots more years that will have lower %ages but heck even lower rates of default will have to be considered over purchases over the last 20 years or so due to equity withdrawl. I suspect it will be fairly even among bubble buyers (more early on in the down cycle) and equity pillagers (more later during the down cycle).

SDR

[sdrealtor]

I just looked at a house today that the owners bought pre-2000 for under $400,000, owe about $800,000 and will lose their home. What about them?

[sdrealtor]

seller decides everything

[sdrealtor]

Two words….windfall profits

[sdrealtor]

Probably just needed a break from all of us hooligans. Hopefully, her husband was able to secure a new position as career uncertainties can create enormous stress in a household.

[sdrealtor]

Well said Chris. I too believe the key is buy what you can afford and where you like the area. If you cant afford it, don’t do it. Buying somewhere just because you think values will rise more there is the recipe for disaster that we are currently taking out of the oven. While a home shouldnt be viewed primarily as an investment, when you get around to buying, find an area you like and can afford. Then doing your best to figure out what will appreciate best in that particular area should help reduce the downside risk to your homes value.

[sdrealtor]

AN,
Looks like we are pretty much in agreement on this one. After getting thoroughly diluted by a circular arguement going nowhere my original thought was lost. here’s my original thought. There is much less of a bubble on the east coast because prices are lower and people there tend to have higher incomes, greater assets and more stable employment situations. I guees I got lost trying to make that point.

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