[sdrealtor]

8 years and counting here. While the average is likely 5 to 7 years, I suspect it is pulled down quite a bit by the short timers at 1 to 3 years. Anecdotally, it seems like most stay longer.

[sdrealtor]

Some renters get to stay in their rentals for 20+ years at below market rents which dont rise with inflation;)

[sdrealtor]

I don’t understand what everyone is celebrating about. It is way to early to claim victory on anything. Sure the subprime market took a big hit and the low end is struggling but nice properties are selling much better this year than last albeit at slightly lower prices. If you aspire to a condo/townhome or a lousy property in a less than prime area you are starting to see some price deflation but I don’t see this group aspiring to that.

Also, the idea that 1st time buyers drive the market while valid is vastly overstated IMHO. 1st timers generally start in condos/townhomes here and progress to starter single family homes but above that the connection is not so direct. Many “Move-up house” buyers come from outside the area and many are actually move down buyers.

If I were to buy a new home I would not sell my current home as it would generate about $1,000/month positive cash flow. I could easily put 20% down and afford the payments on whatever I wanted. An extra $1,000 cash flow certainly wouldnt hurt either.

Here’s more proof, in the first 2 weeks of March 2006, 97 $1M+ homes went into escrow. If you consider that homes went down at least 5% over this time last year and look at home for $950,000+ you get 152 homes. Even if you dont adjust the price you get over 130 homes this year.

If you look at homes between $600K and $800K, in the first 2 weeks of March 2006, 229 homes went into escrow and sold. If you consider that homes went down at least 5% over this time last year and look at homes between $570K and $760K you get 244 homes. Even if you dont adjust the price you get flat sales numbers this year.

I just sense that folks are a bit too anxious to reap some sort of reward for recognizing the bubble which reminds me of the folks who were too anxious to reap some reward not recognizing the bubble. Human psychology is fascinating.

[sdrealtor]

Put that 40% number up against the hoemownership rate of about 60% and things dont look so bad. Plenty of first time buyers have 100K HH incomes. Starting salaries out of college for many fields are over $50K. Put two of them together and you got………

[sdrealtor]

Carmel Valley is on fire right now. There are only 150 active listings and 77 listings in escrow. Foreclosure activity in CV is virtually non-existant except at the entry level.A month ago I indicated that it would not surprise me to see modest price increases in the areas I track closely based upon limited supply. I think CV might be one of those places where we see some modest price increases unless inventory increases fast and furiously soon.

[sdrealtor]

Short sales 1,577 up significantly again from 1,482 last week.

Total SD County Listings 16,236 up from 15,892 from last week and finally on the rise though not as much as one would have expected.

I just checked back to the beginning of this thread (11/27/06 when I started using current methodology). Inventory is down about 10% from 18,070 to 16,236 while short sale activity is up over 50% from 933 to 1,577. As I hypothesized a couple months ago, the market is continuing its shift toward domination by distress sales. What that will mean is complex and time consuming transactions. It will not be easy to buy a home on an administrative basis as lender involvement typically adds at least two months to the process even for a clean offer from a well qualified buyer.

[sdrealtor]

“There are over 1,700 appraisers in SD County, most of whom are members of Sandicor. Of the remaining 21,300 members, how many are actually active in sales? You can’t tell me they are all active participants. Someone must have a stat on inactive realtors in SD who are still paying dues.”

For every dues paying inactive agent there are two or three active licensees using someone elses account without joining Sandicor.

FYI, most of the heavy hitters work for the major brokerages. I wouldn’t classify these folks as fools.

[sdrealtor]

Let’s see just over $1 Billion in closed transactions in Jan 2007.

There were 1820 transactions which works out to an average of about $600,000 per transaction.

At 2.5% commission rate thats $15,000 per transaction of which approximately $10,000 goes to the agent while the rest goes to the brokerage.

Sandicor currently has more than 23,000 members which means that on average 1 out of every 13 members received a $10,000 commsion while the vast majority recieved NOTHING.

Are there agents bringing home the BIG COIN? Absolutely, but they are very few and very far between.

[sdrealtor]

Before buying in The Woodlands look at their HOA. I know people that lived there and it is among the most draconian I have ever heard of.

[sdrealtor]

Hopefully it will be better. Multiple offeres and bidding wars was NOT heaven. For buyers agents it sucked. Heaven would be a nice balance. As for realtors making $50K/month, you are talking about a couple dozen in SD county.

[sdrealtor]

Plan on 1% and you should be OK.

[sdrealtor]

Here’s one. Its owned by an agent investor that has owned it since it was built in 1999. I believe he has a good stable mortgage and that he plans on holding it for a long time. I would be surprised if the owner wasnt happy to get a tenant for 3 years. It has 4BR and a bonus room upstairs (w/o a closet that could definiely be a 5th bedroom). There is 1BR and bath downstairs. Its on a cul de sac and you would be very happy living there. He’s asking about $3700 but I think it should be no more than $3500 if not less. I’ve heard he tends to hold out for higher rents but I’d look into it if you are serious as it would be worth finding something with this great of a location available for 3 years. His number is (858) 792-0915

Also call Granite Asset Mgmnt who manages alot of property in the area. They are a pain in the rear but they tend to have some very nice rentals.

[sdrealtor]

Many of those LCO homes are disressed sellers thrown in with a few early buyers hitting the 2 year mark.

[sdrealtor]

SDR here (as opposed to SD R that you have been conversing with). I live in the area you are looking. You should have no problem finding what you want between 3000 and 4000. Look in S Carlsbad also which is right on the border and where you will more likely find what you are looking for in communities like La Costa Valley, Arroyo Vista, Santa Fe Trails, Olivenhain as well as Encinitas Ranch. I’d probably stay away from la Costa Oaks because anyone that speculated there will likely be in trouble within 3 years.

[sdrealtor]

Daffy,
You are so off target it’s laughable. I am anything but bitter and own a fabulous home in that area with a very small mortgage fixed for 30 years in the 5%’s. My house is big, has a huge lot, a great view and a backyard as nice as any resort i’ve ever been to.

I think those neighborhoods are phenomenal and as good as it gets in SD if not in the country. I dont think prices there are crashing but pricing is only headed in one direction there and its not up. You’re picking a fight with the wrong person. I know as much about that market as anyone on the planet. First off, the house in escrow is a short sale not a foreclosure. Second, there are at least 7 other homes with NOD’s filed on them. Third, there are at least 15 sellers that were unsuccesful last year and could/should be back on the market soon.

Fourth and MOST importantly, the only thing rising in that area other than NOD’s is mortgage fraud. The sales you are probably referring to as proof of rising prices involve 2 closed escrows and one pending that were all represented by the same buyers agent and listing agents. All sold without ever going on the market at least $200,000 above market. I’ve heard rumblings that there were payments back to buyers well into the six figures. Everyone involved should end up behind bars.

P.S. As you pointed out, based upon income the ratios don’t apply to me either. I’m not bitter, I’m joyful!

[Author]

Posts