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sdrealtor
ParticipantThanks for checking in folks, I’ll keep at it.
LBC,
I’m just reporting on what I actually see and hear. It may not be the same in other areas but these are facts not opinions. I remain bearish long term but I’m seeing lots of data that supports a soft landing this year. Next year…who knows?ParticipantFirst question? Is anyone out there watching this? I dont mind posting this information because I track it for myself but if no one is paying attention here, why bother? Please let me know.
This week soemthing very strange happened in the MLS. Approximately 1,000 active listings disappeared and I cant find them! Inventory dropped siginificantly this week and when I search for what came off the market this past week they aren’t there. Perhaps its a daylight savings glitch. We’ll have to see.
Bad news for bubbleheads these days as the market is going strong in desireable areas. I’m not saying prices are going up but they certainly dont look like they will be dropping to any degree this Spring/Summer!
Short sales 1,506 down significantly again from 1,577 last week!
Total SD County Listings 15,111 WAY DOWN from 16,236 from last week. Something funny is defintely going on with the MLS database. My only thought is that they cleaned up alot of old inventory that sold a long time ago but was never taken out of the database. Either way, inventory is not rising as the listings coming on are very balanced when comparing them with what is going off.
In the North County Coastal market that I watch closely, Inventory has actually dropped in the last 30 days while pendings are up. Carmel Valley inventory dropped 20% (177 to 143) while pendings are up 50% (50 to 76)! I don’t know what is happening in other areas but around me I see lots of strength. I spoke with several agents this morning who had more traffic at their open houses that they have EVER seen! I am seeing lots of offers flying around from well qualified buyers with 20% down and 800+ FICO scores.
Participantqwerty
More than anything it is the relative remoteness of the area impacting those prices. It’s a good 15 to 20 minute drive to shopping (you would likely go to Encinitas/Carlsbad/San marcos) so you need to plan ahead. They are building some shopping in San Elijo Hills which will be limited but only 5 minutes away. Schoolwise the kids there go to Encinitas or Rancho Santa Fe schools so the quality isnt an issue. In quiet times, I’d say SD was 45 to 60 minutes away. The area is beautiful and it is like living in National Park. I have a friend that lives there who got tired of commuting downtown to his office so he just built a detached office on his property and fixed that issue.Crime isnt an issue there.
ParticipantSDcellar,
I think it was an interesting experiment. The last 5 years were an abberation with lots of people jumping around because of their equity gains and all the excitment. As the market settles down, I think we’ll see people getting back to laying down roots. Now more than ever I believe people stay longer than the 5 to 7 years that gets thrown around.Lets try it again anywhere. Pick a decent street in any ZIP that people would want to live on and lets see what we find. By decent street, I mean no power lines overhead, houses not backing to a major street etc.
BTW, I provided previous owner data for short timers because there is no way of knowing how long they will stay or weather their bags are already packed for that matter. The interesting thing is that the clock is still ticking and the 10 to 13 year averages on those streets could easily be 15 to 20 years soon. Also, I never siad 20 years was common as I really didnt expect it to be as common as I found. I said some people get to stay 20+ years w/ fixed housing costs which was in reference to my own personal plans. You referneced a 5 to 7 year average which I think we are on our way to debunking.
ParticipantA relative of mine lived in SW Escondido in a great neighborhood. They moved to RB for the Poway school district and found the elementary school inferior to LR Green.
ParticipantHR,
Here’s the original post on thread!
“I see a lot properties in this area, with large lots and beautiful finishes, for considerably less than than Sab Diego or LA. It seems an ideal location for anyone who likes the semi-rural existence, but with a major metropolis within easy reach. I didn’t like the town but Encinitas more than makes up for it.
I would love to know what peoples’ views are on this area.”
I don’t know about you but it sure sounds like the case of an LA Guy searching Realtor.com and finding Elfin Forest/Harmony Grove under Escondido Zip codes to me.
ParticipantParts of escondido are wonderful! I was hiking in the Harmony grove yesterday with my son and it is not the Escondido most are referring to here. The very nice part close to Encinitas is referred to as Harmony Grove and Elfin forest. You can get acreage, great views, peace and quiet, horses and so much more. Do you own due diligence rather than listening to the biased views of the uninformed masses.
March 17, 2007 at 5:48 PM in reply to: In California, Perris is at the epicenter of mortgage problems. #47918ParticipantOuch! 18.8 in perris
ParticipantHere’s one last street that is a bit newer (mid 80’s) and as entry level detached as it gets in my area. The street is calle san Felipe and there are 29 homes on it.
2.5 years (prior owners 5 and 11 years)
21 years
9 years
6 years
9.5 years
10.5 years
5 years
11.5 years
4 years
2.5 years (prior owner 18 years)
13 years
5 years
21 years
10 years
7 years
14.5 years
22 years
22 years
1 year (pror owner 20 years)
21 years
9.5 years
22 years
13 years
2.5 years (prior owners 7 months/flipper and 18 years)
4 years (prior owners 8 and 9 years)
13.5 years
2.5 years (prior owner 6 years)
5 years (prior owner 10 years)
9 yearsThis one surprised even me!
ParticipantHere’s another that I picked which is more of a starter home street. It’s in the same general area as the last and the name of the street is Gaviota Circle. Homes were built in the mid 70’s and range from about 1500 to 2100 sq ft. Lets see how it goes:
9 years
5 years
29 years
2 months! (prior owner there 7.5 years)
9 years
5 years
10 years
23 years
19 years
12 years
28 years
29.5 years
8 years
25 years
29 years
12.5 years
20 years
29.5 years
7.5 years
2 years (prior owner there 25 years)
28 years
3 years
14 years
8+ years (looks like it was passed down to children and original purchase date not in my data but likely 20+ yrs)
11 years
12 years
16 years
3 years (prior owners there 6 and 10 years)
2.5 years (prior owner there 8 years)
8.5 years
6 years
12 years
10 years
21.5 years
8.5 yearsThis is a nice street with 35 nice starter to lower level move up detached homes but nothing anyone would consider extraordinary.
ParticipantReposado? I’ll drink to that! Let’s see how it goes. There are 12 houses on the street and here is the tenure of each homeowner rounded off to the closest 1/2 year:
12.5 years
15.5 years
4.5 years
7.5 years
15.5 years
10 years
3 years
29.5 years
19.5 years
15 years
19.5 years
6.5 yearsAvg tenure = 13.2 years!!!!
A couple comments. This is an established neighborhood so naturally you will find longer tenure than a newer neighborhood. Come back to a 5 or 10 year old neighborhood in 20 years and you will see the results.
One home has resold 3 times in the last 6 years. Two homes have resold twice in the last 10 years. I see this quite a bit where one home sells over and over again while most homeowners in the neighborhood are there long term.
Three of the properties have different mailing addresses indicating they are probably now investment properties or 2nd homes for the owners.
With the exception of the most recent purchaser all have LTV’s below 50% (the new guys are about 70%).
Many have zero loan balances or loan balances below $100,000.
These folks are all still on the clock and we have no idea how much longer they will stay.
This is probably what I would consider a move up neighborhood to possibly a destination neighborhood to address Bugs comment.
Lastly, this is probably a more stable street than most but I think that it is interesting to see that places like this do exist in SD.
Want to try another?
ParticipantSDC,
Sounds like fun! Lets give it go. How about 92009. Pick a street and I’ll check the tax records.
SDRBTW, we are of the same vintage.
ParticipantI’m dug in where I am and will be here at least 15 more years. Most of my friends and neighbors are the same. I think you are experiencing a bit of bias in that your mobility puts you in a circle of people with similar mobility. Perhaps I am experiencing bias in the opposite regard. However, my anecdotal evidence comes from pulling comps/sales histories on streets and seeing alot more stability than you see.
ParticipantI have a good friend with a nice property 3 blocks from the beach in Redondo. He’s been on the market for 4 months and has already reduced his expectatons over $100K. He’s ready to pull it off the market and keep it as a rental.
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