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sdrealtor
ParticipantWhile consumers were left out the industry feed the frenzy and enabling consumers to do what is not in their best interests is what the article is about.
ParticipantSorry but after reading it, I justed didnt feel like bringing up past hard feelings again. I reoved the text and if you really want to see it you can find it at this link below.
ParticipantAdam,
Sorry for the delay but I’ve wanted to post this and have been too busy. The more I read your posts, the more impressed I am by you personally. While we may disagree on some aspects of the RE business I respect your attitude and focus toward getting what you want out of life. Success is not an accident. Sure it takes some luck but you cant hit it out of the park if you are not swinging.Many but not all on this board at all income levels are hoping to “crash” into the lifestyle they desire but have very weak “Plan B’s” (I’ll just rent forever or I’m leaving SD). There is so much opportunity in this world and too many people throw their hands up in defeat.
It’s a shame you weren’t around when Docteur, my personal favorite poster was here. His attitude toward life was spectacular. His farewell post was a great delineator between those that will go get what they want and those that can only hope for it. I am reposting it after this message think you will enjoy it. Put aside the personal conflict with PS in the post. I know this will no doubt put her in a tizzy but this isnt about her. Its about taking responsibility for your own success and making it happen.
SDR
P.S. You could be my neighbor anytime.
ParticipantYep, it’s all there and roughly in the right order IMHO.
ParticipantTo follow up on a topic from last week. Every week I see more signs of distress in the newest communities. LC Oaks is starting to see more and more sellers in possible distress situations as toxic loans begin to reach the boiling poin there. As a side note, I know many people living there and they should all be fine but there are lots of folks I dont there who probably arent. Bressi and LC Greens are too new to show signs as toxic loans are still just simmering there. To the contrary, the communities built prior to 2004 are faring very well.
ParticipantShort sales 1,705 heading up again from 1,635 last week!
Total SD County Listings 15,733 a decent climb from 15,393 last week. We are in tax season so this should be a couple of quiet weeks. I’d expect a slight climb in inventory the next couple weeks and then the fun begins around May 1st with the biggest surge in inventory expected in June.
In the North County Coastal market that I watch closely, Inventory ticked up slightly this week while pendings dropped slightly. The increase in listings is about what you’d expect for the season and the decline in pendings probably represents the late reporting of March EOM closings.
448 SFR’s active the 2nd week in April compared to 541 in 2006 and 273 in 2005. 183 SFR’s in escrow the 1st week in April compared to 170 in 2006 and 192 in 2005.
We are getting closer to a final number for March closings of resale homes (I pull out the builder sales) were 90 last year and 93 reported so far for this year.
For the county watchers in the audience, there were 2,006 sales in 2006 and so far there have been 1,491 reported for 2007 in March. We are clearly seeing a separation between different geographical areas response to the housing market.
ParticipantIts a FSBO put up by one of the companies out there that will will put it in the MLS for a small fee or even for free (like Buyside Realty). They dont care what the owner wants to put as a price and this is a clear case of a delusional seller who is not getting professional help. It’s been in the mls for about 1 year. Nothing to see there, move along………
ParticipantLOL, Thats pretty funny Alex but of course not how it’s done. Pricing is based upon previous sales and current market inventory. Depending upon the seller there might be a deluded seller premium added initially but a competent Realtor should be able to burn that off in a 30 to 90 days.
New Guy,
Thats one way homes are appraised but prices are determined by market conditions rather than replacement cost. There are also significant costs over and above actually building costs including permits, licensing, grading/site prep, environmental impact fees etc. Sometimes there is a premium over replacement cost (such as recent history) while other times there can be a discount. Replacement costs do seem to set a lower limit on prices in general.ParticipantDeadzone and Hipmatt,
We’ll just have to see. I’m not convinced either way at this point and nothing would surprise. In the same vein, I’m well prepared for what ever happens. Are you?ParticipantYou are wrong carlislematthew! If no one is there to hear it there is a 50% drop in the sound level. If you disagree with me, you’re delusional, stupid or both.
ParticipantI agree with Bugs that the drop in sales is definitely troubling and distress sales are on the rise. There is no question about it. Prices will continue to fall, we just dont know how much. For over a year I’ve forecasted a 30% nominal drop peak to trough while others are expecting/hoping for much more. Given what I see happening with the market a 30% nominal drop is not in the bag anymore IMHO.
I believe the biggest and fastest nominal drop we will see occur in a 12 month period already have occurred in 2006. I expect to see a prolonged period of slightly declining to flat prices where a large portion of the decline happens in real rather than nominal terms. Probably not what most bears want to hear but likely in my book. If you look at Rich’s latest graph on the home page you see that is what happened last time around. I could be wrong and if so, I can deal with that. My advice to bears would be to be prepared for that scenario also.
ParticipantMaybe other places but inventory has been pretty flat since New Years.
ParticipantDrive to Williams which is the last town before you get to the Grand Canyon. There is a scenic train ride between Williams and the Canyon. AAA offers good deals on it and I’ve been dying to do it will my son.
Without question, the Grand Canyon is a must see. I’ve hiked to the bottom a coupel times. Hint: don’t try to do it in the heat of Summer.
Participantwouldnt that be good practice for what’s ahead?
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