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May 14, 2007 at 10:22 PM in reply to: “…The forecast was so shocking that I hesitated to print it.” #52819
sdrealtor
ParticipantJosh
Touche! That was hysterical.
sdrParticipantOne last thing to make sure we are on the same page as to what is the difference we are talking about. The discount brokerages harp on the savings over 6% commisions to inflate the savings they offer. I have never been on a single website or seen a single piece of marketing by discount operations that isnt focused on the savings over 6%. Every single survey I have seen the last 3 years and eveything Isee on the market indicates that the market average commission is 5% not 6%. I havent taken a 6% lisitng in at least 3 years and know very few agents that have.
So on a $400K home we are talking about a maximum of $6,000 savings not the $10,000 that gets tossed about. Beyond that you can do the math. I’m not saying $6000 isnt alot of money because it is alot of money. But I think there is a ton of misinformation going on among the discounters.
Participantgot it
ParticipantSD R,
I’m trying to find out more. I’ll let you know what I learn.sdr
ParticipantCmon AN,
You know me better than that. I was just giving him the business.sdr
ParticipantMy strategies are set for the current conditions and exploiting them. I have no standard marketing plan. As times change, I adjust as I see necessary. I dont pretend to be a genius or that this is rocket science. Frankly I often wonder why others dont do things better. The I look around at the 90% of licensees adn see a bunch of nitwits.
I;m in the price + mls sells camp too, just not 100%. I think that is 80% to 90% of it. I do believe the quality of the agent makes up the other 10 to 20% of the selling process. A good agent’s greatest impact is probably on the terms and getting non-price concessions for the client.
ParticipantJosh,
For the record my friend is one of the most ethical, straight forward and honest people I have ever known. He is in my opinion beyond reproach having sold well over a thousand homes in the last down turn. He has more experience in this than you have years on the planet. He is very realistic and fully understands what is going on. The auction was very expensive to undertake and they did it to see if it was a viable way to unload excess inventory. Lenders are not emotional, they only care about optimizing their bottomline. On top of that, if you said to him in person what you just said to me online he would kick your ass all the way to Jamul.Participantif what I heard was true they will be in the SM school district. The first part of LC Oaks was the last major subdivision coming to there area so it will be interesting tosee what happens going forward with no large scale communities to be built. There are a couple small tracts i am aware of. One in the middle of LC Oaks right off RSF Rd east of the planned la Costa Town Center (instersection of La Costa and RSF). There are some nice townhomes planned for the LC Town Center. There is also some grading going on for a small tract behind the davidson homes in LC Oaks and overlooking Olivenhain.
They do have great cookies don’t they.
ParticipantForeclosures were never for lower-end areas only. When you see several dozen there it will mean something.
ParticipantJJ,
I’m surprised you dont know what that is! It’s the second phase of La Costa Oaks. Go to http://www.lacostaoaks.com and you will see it on the map. From what I have heard it is NOT in the San Dieguito school district like phase 1 was. Some of the view lots there will be spectacular. You can probably find it on the city of carlsbad site also.sdr
ParticipantYes it defitely depends on how long they have held the land.
ParticipantThe land owners have held there land for many years including a long and arduous entitlement process. Most can hold on as long as they have to. Builders that own lots are pretty committed to building on them or selling them wholesale.
ParticipantUpdate time!
Short sales 2,199 up from 2,113 last week! Increases are steady but there hasnt been a surge in the velocity.
Total SD County Listings 17,243 a very small climb from 17,075 last week. Inventory has not flooded the market and I dont think it will.
Quick update on NC Coastal. Active listings are flat (457 to 463) and pendings (in escrow) are also (169 to 174). Not much change here. I dont have my data from the last few years to check against the pattern and will try to get to it later.
In Carmel Valley, the market is smokin hot, inventory is pretty low and the supply/demand in balance. For the sake of consistentcy, I based these numbers on the top of the range where range pricing was used. Not perfect but you need to put a line in the sand somewhere. I also pulled out new homes and those in the Poway school district.
There are 30 homes in 92130 under $1M and 22 in escrow.
Between $1M and $1.25M its 27 on the market and 19 in escrow.
Between $1.25M and $1.5M its 27 active and 7 pendings which is the only real sign of weakness in CV. To be fair we should probably pull out Stratford which are 2BR single level homes and basically cater to RSF wannabe retirees from what I understand. That would make it 22 active and 6 pendings.
Between $1.5 and $2M its 21 actives and 7 pendings which is pretty strong for that price range.
May 14, 2007 at 12:21 PM in reply to: “…The forecast was so shocking that I hesitated to print it.” #52785ParticipantNothing in there I didnt already know and none of it is relevant. The house was on the market for nearly 1 year and the price represents a REAL loss of about 30%. Who knows what they could get today and who cares. With the addition of transaction costs and carrying costs this one was a whopper of a loss and not all that far from 40%.
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