[sdrealtor]

Sorry for the delay but it’s time to update everyone’s favorite bellweather;)

7/5 to 7/11

new listings – 11
back on market – 2

Total growth in inventory – 13

pendings – 11
expired – 2
withdrawn – 3
cancelled – 3

Total decrease in inventory – 19

Net change in inventory – minus 6

Random thoughts

Inventory still trending down.

From another thread we (Bugs, myself and SD R) were debating the market value of a home in the heart of CV. The heart of CV is the area surrounding Del Mar Heights Road and does not include Torrey Hills south of 56 or the newer homes to the east in Pacific Highlands Ranch and beyond. I ran a quick check for homes in its class -at least 2000 sq ft and 4BR’s under $1M (if a range was used I took the midpoint of the range). Here is what I found:

1 home for sale which is a 4br/2.5ba/3car/2500 sq ft rental property for 970K to 995K (there was 1 more priced at 999,500 to 1.05M which just missed). Thats all!

7 homes are in escrow of which 4 sold in 2 weeks or less.

In the last 30 days there have been 7 closed sales there. The average down payment was 157K. The smallest downpayment was 5% (50K) and there were 2 with 10% down (75K and 95K). The remaining 4 buyers put down between 175K and 310K.

I’m pretty comfortable with my price opinion.

The attached market inventory was a net minus 6 this week howevewr most of the activity is in Andalucia which seems to be selling about 10 homes per week.

[sdrealtor]

Heading out to dinner but as we both know tax records are often wrong. The listing when they bought it indicated that the 5th br was being used as a playroom. My own 5BR+ Loft home is listed in the tax records as a 4br. the sq fottgae is also understanded by a couple hundred sq ft in the tax records.

My clients never offered on Arbusto because they didnt care for it at any price. I didnt believe they were chasing the market but rather were only willing to sell if they got their price. Apparantly a year on the market changed their perspective.

Iff the people in question priced their home at 899K, I suspect they would sell it within 30 days at or near that price. A couple more went into escrow the last couple days on Campobello and Intermezzo which only strengthen my opinion of current value. One important note, my opinion of value is as of this date. i suspect that I would have a very different opinion come early November and then a different opinion come next March.

In the next 30 days after all the pendings close, we should have a very good idea as to what the market was in CV this June/July.

[sdrealtor]

Heading out to dinner but as we both know tax records are often wrong. The listing when they bought it indicated that the 5th br was being used as a playroom. My own 5BR+ Loft home is listed in the tax records as a 4br. the sq fottgae is also understanded by a couple hundred sq ft in the tax records.

My clients never offered on Arbusto because they didnt care for it at any price. I didnt believe they were chasing the market but rather were only willing to sell if they got their price. Apparantly a year on the market changed their perspective.

Iff the people in question priced their home at 899K, I suspect they would sell it within 30 days at or near that price. A couple more went into escrow the last couple days on Campobello and Intermezzo which only strengthen my opinion of current value. One important note, my opinion of value is as of this date. i suspect that I would have a very different opinion come early November and then a different opinion come next March.

In the next 30 days after all the pendings close, we should have a very good idea as to what the market was in CV this June/July.

[sdrealtor]

Nice jab Bugs! But what I and most experienced agents use is not a standard of a willing buyer/willing seller but rather a willing AND ABLE buyer / willing AND ABLE seller.

Gotta run to take the kiddies to the waterpark but I’ll have more on the “able” portion later.

SD R, my reference to the Arbusto property was not a dig at the price your buy paid but rather a comparison to help show that if a 30 yr old 1900 sq ft 4/2/2 car property in 92009 was worth 730K, than surely a 5BR/3ba/3 car that is 10+ years newer in 92130 should be worth a heckuva lot more than 800K. BTW, I saw/showed the property several times including when it was a FSBO. It was the unmotivated seller dictating the price not the agents. My clients didnt make an offeer on it because even though it had a very nice kitchen remodel, the secondary BR’s were tiny, the built-ins were overdone in the FR, it had no yard which is a major draw for Rancho Ponderosa (most have 8K to 10K lots) was very substandard even more so with the pool they shoe horned into it. Hopefully they put that nice rebate into an account to address the fireplace issue they have a very good chance of running into in the next several years which would cost about $25,000 to replace.

Regarding the use of the 20% bigger home. Both are 5BR/3BA/3car homes. There are alot of buyers that only want 5BR’s or 4BR+office. I would never look at anything less myself. SO it comes down to what is an extra 500 sq ft spread around a home worth, at $100/sf thats 50K and at 200/sf thats 100K. I cant see it being worth anymore than that.

[sdrealtor]

Nice jab Bugs! But what I and most experienced agents use is not a standard of a willing buyer/willing seller but rather a willing AND ABLE buyer / willing AND ABLE seller.

Gotta run to take the kiddies to the waterpark but I’ll have more on the “able” portion later.

SD R, my reference to the Arbusto property was not a dig at the price your buy paid but rather a comparison to help show that if a 30 yr old 1900 sq ft 4/2/2 car property in 92009 was worth 730K, than surely a 5BR/3ba/3 car that is 10+ years newer in 92130 should be worth a heckuva lot more than 800K. BTW, I saw/showed the property several times including when it was a FSBO. It was the unmotivated seller dictating the price not the agents. My clients didnt make an offeer on it because even though it had a very nice kitchen remodel, the secondary BR’s were tiny, the built-ins were overdone in the FR, it had no yard which is a major draw for Rancho Ponderosa (most have 8K to 10K lots) was very substandard even more so with the pool they shoe horned into it. Hopefully they put that nice rebate into an account to address the fireplace issue they have a very good chance of running into in the next several years which would cost about $25,000 to replace.

Regarding the use of the 20% bigger home. Both are 5BR/3BA/3car homes. There are alot of buyers that only want 5BR’s or 4BR+office. I would never look at anything less myself. SO it comes down to what is an extra 500 sq ft spread around a home worth, at $100/sf thats 50K and at 200/sf thats 100K. I cant see it being worth anymore than that.

[sdrealtor]

Once again to my original point tou you. That is the difference between appraised and market value. You can only look at closed like for like sales, we use a combination of that plus current market conditions which would support a higher value IMH. BTW, I am writing from a l;isting agent perspective.

Just curious as to what you would say the value is?

[sdrealtor]

Once again to my original point tou you. That is the difference between appraised and market value. You can only look at closed like for like sales, we use a combination of that plus current market conditions which would support a higher value IMH. BTW, I am writing from a l;isting agent perspective.

Just curious as to what you would say the value is?

[sdrealtor]

Suprise surprise!! Grammy has a wireless router in her home in South Fla.

First point: I agree with Chris 100% and that was why I jumped in to begin with. I remember vrud saying several things in the past that led me to the same conclusion.

SEcond point: I disagree that the larger comp I provided isnt relevant. It is in the immediate area, has 5 BR’s, 3 car garage and is of the same general vintage. While it does not provide an equivalent value it sets an upper bracket on the value. It was very plain and if it sold for $1M+ it helps justify a reasonableness to a 900K price for a smaller 5BR house in the area in the eyes of the buyer.

Third point: Similar size (and slightly smaller) 4BR homes in South Carlsbad have been selling very well between 825 and 875K the last few months. CV has traditionally sold for about 10%/100K more in like for like sales. With 5BR’s a 3 car garage and sq ftage at the top end of the 4BR’s I think about in South Carlsbad I have no problem thinking 900K. SD R did you not just sell a 30 year old 1900 sq ft 4/2 with a 2 car garage for 730K in South Carlsbad? Your first post seemed to imply a value closer to 800K which would indicate a short memory.

Time to hit the beach

[sdrealtor]

Suprise surprise!! Grammy has a wireless router in her home in South Fla.

First point: I agree with Chris 100% and that was why I jumped in to begin with. I remember vrud saying several things in the past that led me to the same conclusion.

SEcond point: I disagree that the larger comp I provided isnt relevant. It is in the immediate area, has 5 BR’s, 3 car garage and is of the same general vintage. While it does not provide an equivalent value it sets an upper bracket on the value. It was very plain and if it sold for $1M+ it helps justify a reasonableness to a 900K price for a smaller 5BR house in the area in the eyes of the buyer.

Third point: Similar size (and slightly smaller) 4BR homes in South Carlsbad have been selling very well between 825 and 875K the last few months. CV has traditionally sold for about 10%/100K more in like for like sales. With 5BR’s a 3 car garage and sq ftage at the top end of the 4BR’s I think about in South Carlsbad I have no problem thinking 900K. SD R did you not just sell a 30 year old 1900 sq ft 4/2 with a 2 car garage for 730K in South Carlsbad? Your first post seemed to imply a value closer to 800K which would indicate a short memory.

Time to hit the beach

[sdrealtor]

Where do I put a couple kids, their friends and all the beach toys?

[sdrealtor]

Where do I put a couple kids, their friends and all the beach toys?

[sdrealtor]

Too busy packing to say more than the two most relevant examples of recent pendings I provided sold in 4 days and 11 days not 2+ months.

[sdrealtor]

Too busy packing to say more than the two most relevant examples of recent pendings I provided sold in 4 days and 11 days not 2+ months.

[sdrealtor]

Sorry getting on a plane and dont have time to do enough research. The lack of activity in the last 3 months in this size range tells me that inventory has been very constrained particularly given the fact that sales have been relatively strong in this area. It tells me nothing about the trend. If anything, there could be some pent up demand of frustrated buyers who have been trying to get into a nice 5BR home in a great school district before September. Relo buyers like that tend to have plenty down and a small appraisal gap wouldnt present much of a problem (of course a big gap would).

You bearish philosophy is showing and as an independent appraiser you should be neutral. With an hour or two, I am very confident that I could create a very reasonable case for a 900K value that could be justified without a positive or negative bias.

Sorry but computer access will be very limited for me over the next week as I’ll be on vacation again.

One last thing Bugs. With all honestly, what would you tell me to do or better yet, where would you tell me to go if I tried to justify a price to with a 6.5 month old comp?

[sdrealtor]

Sorry getting on a plane and dont have time to do enough research. The lack of activity in the last 3 months in this size range tells me that inventory has been very constrained particularly given the fact that sales have been relatively strong in this area. It tells me nothing about the trend. If anything, there could be some pent up demand of frustrated buyers who have been trying to get into a nice 5BR home in a great school district before September. Relo buyers like that tend to have plenty down and a small appraisal gap wouldnt present much of a problem (of course a big gap would).

You bearish philosophy is showing and as an independent appraiser you should be neutral. With an hour or two, I am very confident that I could create a very reasonable case for a 900K value that could be justified without a positive or negative bias.

Sorry but computer access will be very limited for me over the next week as I’ll be on vacation again.

One last thing Bugs. With all honestly, what would you tell me to do or better yet, where would you tell me to go if I tried to justify a price to with a 6.5 month old comp?

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