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sdduuuude
ParticipantOK. I have a question about this gold/inflation/fiat currency issue. Now, I agree that a gold standard is better. I’m always a fan of taking the government out of the loop and I understand the importance of a free currency market. But …
I have heard for 10 years that the dollar will collapse and gold will rule.
I realize this is much like those who say “we’ve been hearing about the housing bubble for years and it hasn’t happened.” To answer those skeptics, we can point to many important factors that are becoming saturated to the point where they must break: ARM resets, price-to-income ratios, %of neg-am loans, the dependence of the economy on RE & Construction jobs, etc.
My question is – why now? What key economic conditions make the dollar so suceptible that everyone is discussing massive inflation, declaring the end of the dollar and proclaiming gold as long-term play?
We have been off the gold standard for so long – why now? What is becoming saturated? What variables are hitting multi-decade highs that are causing people like poway seller and themessthatgreenspanmade.com to claim the end of the dollar?
And please remember: succinct = good
ParticipantJust because someone says it is 67% overvalued doesn’t mean it is. Lots of economists also say we are going to have a soft landing. Are you a thief convincing others the market is 67% overvalued when in fact the market will be flat for several years, according to many other sources?
I don’t think so.
ParticipantI think what you are missing is that he reads this forum and others don’t. It means he has some insight into the market (not just from this forum, but because he takes time to dig into the numbers) and pays attention and understands and admits the market is turning. You have to give him credit for that.
Where are the other x-thousand realtors? How come they aren’t here? They are out there – overpricing their properties and getting killed.
As far as qualifying buyers – my guess is his market isn’t Chula Vista. As Casagrand has pointed out as a reason for the health median price – the upper end of the market is still quite healthy. If his market is in a higher end neighborhood…
As far as your numbers go – perhaps in an up market, 50% of the realtors make 80% of the money, but in a down market only 20% of the realtors make 80% of the money (just a guess – completely made up numbers). If so, one of the 20% could have a good year.
ParticipantPS – think of it this way.
When sales are up and the market is flying, making a sale is easy. Even lame realtors can make sales when the market is flying. People are less inclined to really shop for a realtor and as we all know, many realtors will overprice.
When the market turns, good realtors have a significant advantage over the herd.
If a realtor knows how to price in a down market and can get sellers (his own, or a seller for his buyer) to come down to reality, and he is networked with other agents who can do the same, he is going to get deals through, and could have a banner year while others simply hope for the good times to return and fall out of the industry.
You have to give him credit for recognizing the down market and helping his buyers make decisions based on that market. I don’t know why you bag on him. I think he’s got this market wired and is serving his clients well.
Participant“Must be difficult to do with a clear conscience.”
Oh, come on. Blaming a realtor for the decisions of their clients is just ridiculous. Both clients – buyers and sellers – work very hard to make the deal go through. It is a pain. If the buyers didn’t really want to buy, they wouldn’t.
This is like blaming an alcoholic’s problems on the liquor store.
I hope his conscience is clear.
ParticipantMy suggestion would be to talk with many realtors before signing. When you get construction work done, you should get three quotes. I’d talk with at least 5 agents.
Most people just go with the first one they meet, or they just go off a recommendation. Check the BBB, talk with former clients of theirs, even ask each realtor about the other ones you have talked with – see if you can dig up any dirt.
As I mentioned in another post, I know one that is certainly worth an initial consultaion.
Another thought for buyers – consider a buyer-only agent. They have a little different take on the market because they deal exclusively with buyers and they don’t have listing business to get in the way.
ParticipantIf anyone needs a great realtor, I know of one. She helped us buy our first house and although I have bought and sold houses without a realtor, I would use her and I trust her intrinsically.
This is one of the most profesional individuals I have ever met. Ever. Period.
Negative comments about realtors tear at me because I have encountered so many awful ones, but then I know people like Rosalie. I’m just sorry not everyone has met or used a quality individual for a realtor, but admittedly, it is hard to find a good one.
ParticipantOK – now go ask your friends and see what they think. How far has the median price come up in 23 months? I asked my wife. She said “40%”
Now I see why this is such a slow process.
May 9, 2006 at 10:33 PM in reply to: New Index Idea or “How to keep an unemployed appraiser busy.” #25117ParticipantI understand that and tend to believe it, however I personally haven’t seen any data to support it. It would be nice to have an accepted index of same-home price comparisons to prove it and demonstrate it to the public.
May 9, 2006 at 9:08 PM in reply to: New Index Idea or “How to keep an unemployed appraiser busy.” #25113ParticipantI don’t think it would be a tool for future prediction, just a better tool to indicate the current state of pricing. To me, it seems prices have been dropping since August, but the median has been going up since.
Regarding confidentiality – the addresses wouldn’t be published. Only information by zip-code. This would be using publicly available info to run comps on secret addresses with certain Bedroom/Bath/Garage/SQ Ft profiles.
Of course, one would use quality appraisers.
ParticipantApparently I can post. Just can’t start a thread.
ParticipantSorry to hijack this thread. Is anyone else unable to start a forum topic? i.e. gets a nasty “forbidden” page.
Is this a technical difficulty or something I said?
ParticipantA while back I asked about the prospects of Japanese real estate. Rich thought it would help hedge against a falling dollar and I thought it may be a good time given the 13 year slump, though I have not analyzed it at all. Any thoughts on that? Is there an ETFs that would follow Japanese real estate?
ParticipantAs you should.
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