[sdduuuude]

I think you are wise for picking out Bugs’ post. His perspective is always helpful to me also.

Like the others, I hope you don’t buy in this market, but its your money.

I don’t know what the school district is like up there. But if that is a concern for you, consider the Poway and Solana Beach Districts.

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This is interesting

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Forrester’s World Model predicted that the earth’s population would peak around 5 billion, then fall off to 3 or 4 billion. Running various forms of the model would move those numbers up and down, but the result was always the same – peak population, followed by a fall, then steady state.

Perhaps the great coming depression is related to this factor.

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This seems like such a logical plan, perhaps you could stick to it:

“I found the best tactic is ignoring posts which are unprofessional. I call it the ‘tone of a gentleman’ litmus test, and only respond to posts which pass this test.”

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That 50% nominal or real?

i.e. a $500,000 house now will actually cost $250,000 at the bottom of the market

or

$250,000 x ((1 + inflation) ^ #years)
at the bottom of the market?

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He didn’t call her any name. He merely identified a way that she could spend less money on gas. I thought it was good advice and you weren’t even involved in the conversation. Like I said – a great opportunity for you to keep quiet.

I’m so sick of you two bickering. Just about ready to call it quits on this forum because of it. You two are just like two bickering 13-year olds that have vendettas against each other.

I don’t know how old you two are, but I’m starting to think maybe 18.

Really. I’m sick of it.

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This would have been the perfect time for you to stay out of it, but you couldn’t resist, could you?

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Foreclosed houses get taken over by the bank. The bank won’t rent them out and may not be able to sell them. These sit empty, unavailable to rent.

I’m wondering if the number of empty homes will have an significant effect on supply. My intuition says “no” but it’s a thought.

Your assumption of 1/3 seems high to me – how did you come up with that?

It’d be nice to know how many SFRs are there in SD and what % are rented out.

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I’m stuck at work on a Friday, waiting for LOTS of data to move between a couple of computers. Got to digging through the Piggington archives.

As it did the first time I read it so many months ago, this one made me laugh out loud so I thought I’d post a link to it under the “Funny Funny Stuff” thread:

The Madness of Crowds

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Yeah – it’s a swag. In fact, cuz its a swag I’m going to make it a range and go back to that 16% number. 15% – 20% nominal or %35-40% real.

Here – lets practice with the future monitary standard:

A $500,000 house today is worth 714 oz of gold (assume $700/oz). In 2012, How many oz of gold?

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I’m going to disagree with you and Powayseller on this one. Seems to me that expecting housing bubble to fully reset back to 1999 prices without considering inflation is not a solid analysis.

Expecting it to fully reset isn’t unreasonable, but expecting it to reset to the nominal prices is not – especially since you are so dead set on pointing out the effects of inflation when it comes to gold investing and the crash of the dollar.

Furthermore, if real inflation is even higher than government-reported inflation, as you and PS so often tell us, the real inflation figures should be used.

The famous Tuip market reset in a matter of months. The effects of inflation are negligible in that case. The housing market could take 12 to 15 years to reset – from 1999 to 2011 or 2014 (based on estimates in this forum of an upcoming 5-7 year down cycle).

Assuming 3% inflation for 12 years, this means real prices could be expected to increase by 42.5% – or that $280,000 house in 1999 “should” be worth $399,000 in 2011.

So, a “full reset” tells me the same house selling for 480,000 today that was once 280,000 in 1999 may only reset to 399,000 in 2012. This is a reduction of 16.8%.

My instinct tells me it could be 25% down, though.

Maybe Rich could pull out one of his really old graphs that shows housing prices NOT adjusted for inflation. You’ll see the last big crash is not visually impressive when you ignore inflation. A 25% down cycle would be devastating, compared to the last one, which if i recall was only 10% down or so.

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This is going to cost me $24.

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Chunkey Monkey is my favorite ice cream, by the way.

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Seems the repercussions in Japan of the housing bubble burst are just as nasty as they are here. If they have funded all our debt, using US housing as the underlying collateral, when people start to default, they’ll be pretty screwed, won’t they?

Is Japan as a lender somehow isolated from this?

Whether they want to or not, aren’t they heavily invested in US housing?

[sdduuuude]

But if inflation is raging, wouldn’t wages come up significantly, assuming the deflation takes 5 to 7 years?

If you base your “reverting back to 1999” on the home-price-to income ratio and not just home price, you’d have to adjust that for inflationary effects on wages, which would suggest less of a % drop.

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