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sdduuuude
ParticipantWhen making such bold predictions (a.k.a. wild-ass-guesses), I always try to err on the side of “whatever is happening will take longer than anyone expects.”
Often times, very smart people are right about pointing out a market condition that needs to be corrected, but very wrong about how long it will take to correct it.
I think the same will happen with the duration of the recession. Guys guys like Rubini and Mish are predicting a long one. I think it will take longer, especially with the gubmint trying so hard to delay the shakeouts that need to occur.
If the official start was in Dec. 2007, I think the official duration will be closer to 30 months than 18 months. I think next Christmas will not be as bad as this one. I think we’ll be crawling up the hill by then.
I was actually a bit surprised that the official start was declared in Dec. 2007. That seems early to me. The really nasty stuff didn’t hit the stock market until Oct of this year and unemployment wasn’t obviously bad until the middle of this year and my last customer didn’t run out of money until July but the timing of those things don’t always match up with the timing of the recession, either.
The bad news about that is the pain of the recession may last several months after the official end.
It wouldn’t shock me if this recession ended in late 2009, then another one hits in 2011 when all the people who have been bailed out realize they are still screwed.
ParticipantWhen making such bold predictions (a.k.a. wild-ass-guesses), I always try to err on the side of “whatever is happening will take longer than anyone expects.”
Often times, very smart people are right about pointing out a market condition that needs to be corrected, but very wrong about how long it will take to correct it.
I think the same will happen with the duration of the recession. Guys guys like Rubini and Mish are predicting a long one. I think it will take longer, especially with the gubmint trying so hard to delay the shakeouts that need to occur.
If the official start was in Dec. 2007, I think the official duration will be closer to 30 months than 18 months. I think next Christmas will not be as bad as this one. I think we’ll be crawling up the hill by then.
I was actually a bit surprised that the official start was declared in Dec. 2007. That seems early to me. The really nasty stuff didn’t hit the stock market until Oct of this year and unemployment wasn’t obviously bad until the middle of this year and my last customer didn’t run out of money until July but the timing of those things don’t always match up with the timing of the recession, either.
The bad news about that is the pain of the recession may last several months after the official end.
It wouldn’t shock me if this recession ended in late 2009, then another one hits in 2011 when all the people who have been bailed out realize they are still screwed.
ParticipantWhen making such bold predictions (a.k.a. wild-ass-guesses), I always try to err on the side of “whatever is happening will take longer than anyone expects.”
Often times, very smart people are right about pointing out a market condition that needs to be corrected, but very wrong about how long it will take to correct it.
I think the same will happen with the duration of the recession. Guys guys like Rubini and Mish are predicting a long one. I think it will take longer, especially with the gubmint trying so hard to delay the shakeouts that need to occur.
If the official start was in Dec. 2007, I think the official duration will be closer to 30 months than 18 months. I think next Christmas will not be as bad as this one. I think we’ll be crawling up the hill by then.
I was actually a bit surprised that the official start was declared in Dec. 2007. That seems early to me. The really nasty stuff didn’t hit the stock market until Oct of this year and unemployment wasn’t obviously bad until the middle of this year and my last customer didn’t run out of money until July but the timing of those things don’t always match up with the timing of the recession, either.
The bad news about that is the pain of the recession may last several months after the official end.
It wouldn’t shock me if this recession ended in late 2009, then another one hits in 2011 when all the people who have been bailed out realize they are still screwed.
ParticipantParticipantParticipantParticipantParticipantNovember 25, 2008 at 11:04 AM in reply to: Market soars like an eagle on heels of Obam economic speech #308852ParticipantI have “1000 books on CD” and I’m ready to use them.
November 25, 2008 at 11:04 AM in reply to: Market soars like an eagle on heels of Obam economic speech #309221ParticipantI have “1000 books on CD” and I’m ready to use them.
November 25, 2008 at 11:04 AM in reply to: Market soars like an eagle on heels of Obam economic speech #309240ParticipantI have “1000 books on CD” and I’m ready to use them.
November 25, 2008 at 11:04 AM in reply to: Market soars like an eagle on heels of Obam economic speech #309262ParticipantI have “1000 books on CD” and I’m ready to use them.
November 25, 2008 at 11:04 AM in reply to: Market soars like an eagle on heels of Obam economic speech #309323ParticipantI have “1000 books on CD” and I’m ready to use them.
Participant[quote=sdduuuude]The Pool of Tears
`Curiouser and curiouser!’ cried Alice (she was so much
surprised, that for the moment she quite forgot how to speak good
English); `now I’m opening out like the largest telescope that
ever was! Good-bye, feet!’ (for when she looked down at her
feet, they seemed to be almost out of sight, they were getting so
far off). `Oh, my poor little feet, I wonder who will put on
your shoes and stockings for you now, dears? I’m sure _I_ shan’t
be able! I shall be a great deal too far off to trouble myself
about you: you must manage the best way you can; –but I must be
kind to them,’ thought Alice, `or perhaps they won’t walk the
way I want to go! Let me see: I’ll give them a new pair of
boots every Christmas.’And she went on planning to herself how she would manage it.
`They must go by the carrier,’ she thought; `and how funny it’ll
seem, sending presents to one’s own feet! And how odd the
directions will look!ALICE’S RIGHT FOOT, ESQ.
HEARTHRUG,
NEAR THE FENDER,
(WITH ALICE’S LOVE).Oh dear, what nonsense I’m talking!’
Just then her head struck against the roof of the hall: in
fact she was now more than nine feet high, and she at once took
up the little golden key and hurried off to the garden door.Poor Alice! It was as much as she could do, lying down on one
side, to look through into the garden with one eye; but to get
through was more hopeless than ever: she sat down and began to
cry again.`You ought to be ashamed of yourself,’ said Alice, `a great
girl like you,’ (she might well say this), `to go on crying in
this way! Stop this moment, I tell you!’ But she went on all
the same, shedding gallons of tears, until there was a large pool
all round her, about four inches deep and reaching half down the
hall.After a time she heard a little pattering of feet in the
distance, and she hastily dried her eyes to see what was coming.
It was the White Rabbit returning, splendidly dressed, with a
pair of white kid gloves in one hand and a large fan in the
other: he came trotting along in a great hurry, muttering to
himself as he came, `Oh! the Duchess, the Duchess! Oh! won’t she
be savage if I’ve kept her waiting!’ Alice felt so desperate
that she was ready to ask help of any one; so, when the Rabbit
came near her, she began, in a low, timid voice, `If you please,
sir–‘ The Rabbit started violently, dropped the white kid
gloves and the fan, and skurried away into the darkness as hard
as he could go.Alice took up the fan and gloves, and, as the hall was very
hot, she kept fanning herself all the time she went on talking:
`Dear, dear! How queer everything is to-day! And yesterday
things went on just as usual. I wonder if I’ve been changed in
the night? Let me think: was I the same when I got up this
morning? I almost think I can remember feeling a little
different. But if I’m not the same, the next question is, Who in
the world am I? Ah, THAT’S the great puzzle!’ And she began
thinking over all the children she knew that were of the same age
as herself, to see if she could have been changed for any of[/quote]Last Dec. 9, as I drove from Gillette Stadium to my hotel in Boston’s Copley Place on a cool Sunday night, I called my editor to talk about the following week’s assignment. Unlike that day’s compelling showdown between the undefeated Patriots and playoff-bound Steelers, there was no obvious must-see game on the upcoming Sunday’s schedule, and we tossed around a couple of options.
Finally, I suggested, “What about Ravens at Dolphins?” To my editor’s credit, he didn’t burst out laughing. Baltimore had lost seven games in a row to drop out of contention, while Miami was 0-13. “I know it’s a little different, but it’ll be a cool story,” I told him. “Because the Dolphins are going to win.”
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Sure enough, Miami prevailed on a dramatic overtime touchdown, and we got the column we’d anticipated. The moral of the story? When it comes to figuring out when a winless team will finally achieve victory, no one is more psychic than yours truly.
All of which brings us to the Lions, now five defeats away from becoming the first NFL team to go 0-16.
Could imperfection become a reality? Normally, I’d say no, but the Lions are a special breed of awful. They fired their team president, Matt Millen, after their third defeat in September. They signed their starting quarterback, Daunte Culpepper, off the street in early November.
On Sunday at Ford Field, Detroit managed to take a 17-0 first-quarter lead over the Buccaneers – and trail at halftime en route to a 38-20 defeat. That is hard to do, but these guys made it happen.
Making matters more complicated, each of the Lions’ remaining opponents is currently in the playoff hunt. Next up are the Titans on Thursday at Ford Field, a matchup for which exactly zero football fans outside of Tennessee are giving thanks. Any notion that a perfect-storm, Turkey Day upset over the Titans was possible disappeared on Sunday when the Jets handed Jeff Fisher’s team its first defeat.
Tennessee’s proud players will be quite angry Thanksgiving, and they’ll take it out on the Lions.
On Dec. 7, Detroit completes its three-game homestand against the Vikings, currently tied for the NFC North lead and playing well. Can you say “0-13”? Then they travel to Indy, for a game the Colts will likely need to win to remain in the wild-card chase. As long as Peyton Manning doesn’t get done in by some spoiled stuffing between now and then, it’s a blowout waiting to happen.
That’s right, gang, the Lions will officially match the 1976 Buccaneers as architects of an 0-14 monstrosity.
In the end, however, those bumbling Bucs will stand alone. No, by in the end I don’t mean the Lions’ Dec. 28 season finale against the Packers at Lambeau Field, a game in which the Detroit players’ focus will be on two things: a hot postgame shower and a New Year’s Eve celebration on some pristine Caribbean beach. As ugly as Green Bay looked in New Orleans on Monday night, this game will be even uglier, with the home team possibly battling for a division title.
No, the Lions’ victory will have come the week before that, in a Dec. 21 home game against the Saints.
Yes, I realize I’m predicting the Lions to beat a team with a prolific offense; the Saints just put up 51 points against the Packers, moving two games behind the Bucs and Panthers (and a game behind Atlanta) in the competitive NFC South.
But New Orleans, which until Monday hadn’t won consecutive games all season, is maddeningly inconsistent. The Saints’ next three games are against Tampa Bay, Atlanta and Chicago, and they could easily lose twice and be eliminated from playoff contention. Surely, they’d be able to put up points on Detroit, but New Orleans’ defense is lousy enough – dare we say Lionsesque – to keep an 0-14 team desperate to avoid everlasting ignominy in the game.
So mark it down: Detroit will somehow pull out a victory over Drew Brees and company. The only remaining question is whether I’ll be there to witness it.
That’s for my editor to decide. In the meantime, ponder these equally scintillating mysteries, beginning with the league’s best team (a new one) and descending all the way down to the You Know Whos:
1. New York Giants: Is Domenik Hixon that dangerous on kickoff returns or are the Cardinals’ coverage teams simply that atrocious?
2. Tennessee Titans: Was that an aberration or did the Jets unveil a blueprint for attacking this physical team on both sides of the ball?
3. Pittsburgh Steelers: Can Dick LeBeau and his zone-blitzing defenders find a way to burst the Matt Cassel Bubble?
4. Tampa Bay Buccaneers: Will they hit a wall like last year or might this team actually peak for the playoffs?
5. New York Jets: Isn’t it cool how, even at 39, Brett Favre still acts like the world’s happiest man after throwing a touchdown pass?
6. Dallas Cowboys: Is any NFL player more important to his team’s fortunes than Tony Romo?
7. Carolina Panthers: Are the ‘08 Panthers turning into the ‘07 Bucs?
8. Washington Redskins: How much did Shawn Springs enjoy that game-clinching interception in Seattle, his old stamping grounds?
9. Indianapolis Colts: What do you think the odds are that Peyton Manning will outduel Brady Quinn (and/or Derek Anderson) next Sunday?
10. Arizona Cardinals: Yo, Ralph Brown, how do you not catch that onside kick, and shouldn’t they replace you with someone who can?
11. Minnesota Vikings: Should Adrian Peterson’s new nickname be AAD (Almost All Day)?
12. New England Patriots: Is any team more dangerous on fourth down with a 13-point lead in the final minute?
13. Atlanta Falcons: Can Harry Douglas be stopped or do you just try to contain him?
14. Baltimore Ravens: When Ed Reed intercepted that pass eight yards deep in the end zone and started racing down the right sideline, did Eagles quarterback Kevin Kolb yell “Olé!”?
15. Chicago Bears: If he keeps running like this, how long will it be until Matt Forte cuts a hip-hop single with this guy?
16. Miami Dolphins: Have you ever seen two football players exhibit more simultaneous joy upon being ejected for brawling than Channing Crowder and Matt Light?
17. New Orleans Saints: Would you buy an abused car from this man?
18. Green Bay Packers: Did they sneak out to Pat O’Brien’s for some halftime Hurricanes on Monday night?
19. Denver Broncos: When you allow Ashley Lelie to come back to his old town and upstage Brandon Marshall, can we conclude that you’re the most dubious late-November division leader in recent memory?
20. Buffalo Bills: How long until Leodis McKelvin becomes one of the NFL’s best cornerbacks?
21. Philadelphia Eagles: When Andy Reid says his decision to start Donovan McNabb against Arizona on Thursday “has nothing to do with [Kevin] Kolb’s performance,” are we actually supposed to believe him?
22. San Diego Chargers: Wait, Jacob Hester wasn’t a complete waste of a draft pick?
23. Jacksonville Jaguars: Hey, Jack Del Rio, how do you really feel about Sunday’s stinker against the Vikings?
24. Houston Texans: Do we really have to wait six whole days to watch this team host the Jags on “Monday Night Football”?
25. Cleveland Browns: Will owner Randy Lerner soon be telling his players to “chin up”?
26. Oakland Raiders: Aren’t they, like, totally awesome?
27. Seattle Seahawks: With all due respect to Mike Holmgren’s illustrious career, how poorly coached is this team?
28. San Francisco 49ers: Does Nate Clement have good dental records?
29. Cincinnati Bengals: If Carson Palmer is “sick of watching,” is there a Bengals fan alive who can’t relate?
30. Kansas City Chiefs: On Sunday, was former Cal defensive back Herm Edwards trying to make ex-Stanford quarterback Trent Edwards feel better about the pimp-slapping his school absorbed in the previous day’s Big Game, or did it just seem that way?
31. St. Louis Rams: When Jim Haslett says he is “helpless on the sidelines,” is it fair to conclude he’s no longer a realistic candidate for the permanent head coaching gig?
32. Detroit Lions: If you insist upon watching all four quarters of their game against the Titans on Thursday, how much do you hate talking to your in-laws?
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