[sdduuuude]

[quote=svelte][quote=sdduuuude]

And why isn’t anyone publishing percentage-based numbers. Yes, the US has the most cases, but its population is a little bigger than Italy and a little smaller that China so that doesn’t tell us anything. Yes, New York has the most cases in the US but it is also a huge city. SF may be much worse off on a percentage basis. Maybe not. I don’t know because the news is stupid.[/quote]

The news does give you the breakdown by state and state populations are widely known, so you have all the information you need to do the calculations on a statewide basis. In addition, the news gives us the cases & deaths for some large cities such as NYC and SF, and their populations are widely known. So if you don’t take the 5-10 mins to gather the stats and run the calcs, that’s on you dude.

Statewide are here:
https://www.worldometers.info/coronavirus/country/us/
https://www.cnn.com/2020/03/03/health/us-coronavirus-cases-state-by-state/index.html

Major cities are in various spots.[/quote]

Yes. I was just thinking the other day – I’d really like news coverage that makes me do my own calcs.

[sdduuuude]

I did that once. I mixed epoxy A with more epoxy A. I ended up with – a whole bunch of epoxy A in my project.

[sdduuuude]

oops

[sdduuuude]

Pretty light day at hodepo.

No line to get in my first visit. A five minute wait a little later in the afternoon.

The initial rush of getting stuff for that big quarantine project has passed.

I talked with a general contractor. Said he has been working as usual for the last two weeks.

[sdduuuude]

[quote=Coronita][quote=sdduuuude]Today’s Home Depot report:

Arrived about 9 am to pick up a few small things. There was a line of people waiting to go into the store.

One of the employees said they were letting 100 people into the store at a time. As one person left, they let one in. Another employee said it was 150. I’m not sure which. I asked if the city was making them do this or the corporation. They said it was a corporate decision.

I waited about 15 minutes to get into the store. There was no line at the cashier.[/quote]

If you’re going to Home Depot each day, could I ask you to pick me up a pipe wrench? Lol. I’m kidding. I do need a pipe wrench, but I’m too scared to go to the store because I know the moment I step foot in any home improvement, tool, or auto store, I’m going to want to stay there for awhile to browse. So I just paid the $6 shipping and ordered stuff from Harbor Freight.[/quote]

You can borrow mine any time.

[sdduuuude]

[quote=sdduuuude]Italy not looking exponential anymore.
https://www.worldometers.info/coronavirus/country/italy/

San Diego starting to look linear.
https://www.sandiegocounty.gov/content/dam/sdc/hhsa/programs/phs/Epidemiology/COVID-19%20Bar%20Graph%20of%20New%20and%20Total%20Cases.pdf

Mon/Tues/Wed next week will be telling for San Diego. Monday marks two weeks of school and bar closures.

I don’t know why The President or Bill Gates are calling for anything other than what should happen in the next 7 days. Trump says April 12. What if things still look like crap then ? Gates says two more months. What if we don’t need two months ? Why decide today if we need two months ?

We don’t need to make those decisions until April 12.

The fact that nobody is sampling non-symptomatic populations is driving me mad. If we don’t do that, all these numbers are “funny” and not really painting a clear picture. If the treatment doesn’t depend on whether or not you have COVID-19, then why test the sick people ? Seems we should test restaurant and store workers to make sure they aren’t unaffected carriers.[/quote]

And why isn’t anyone publishing percentage-based numbers. Yes, the US has the most cases, but its population is a little bigger than Italy and a little smaller that China so that doesn’t tell us anything. Yes, New York has the most cases in the US but it is also a huge city. SF may be much worse off on a percentage basis. Maybe not. I don’t know because the news is stupid.

[sdduuuude]

Italy not looking exponential anymore.
https://www.worldometers.info/coronavirus/country/italy/

San Diego starting to look linear.
https://www.sandiegocounty.gov/content/dam/sdc/hhsa/programs/phs/Epidemiology/COVID-19%20Bar%20Graph%20of%20New%20and%20Total%20Cases.pdf

Mon/Tues/Wed next week will be telling for San Diego. Monday marks two weeks of school and bar closures.

I don’t know why The President or Bill Gates are calling for anything other than what should happen in the next 7 days. Trump says April 12. What if things still look like crap then ? Gates says two more months. What if we don’t need two months ? Why decide today if we need two months ?

We don’t need to make those decisions until April 12.

The fact that nobody is sampling non-symptomatic populations is driving me mad. If we don’t do that, all these numbers are “funny” and not really painting a clear picture. If the treatment doesn’t depend on whether or not you have COVID-19, then why test the sick people ? Seems we should test restaurant and store workers to make sure they aren’t unaffected carriers.

[sdduuuude]

Today’s Home Depot report:

Arrived about 9 am to pick up a few small things. There was a line of people waiting to go into the store.

One of the employees said they were letting 100 people into the store at a time. As one person left, they let one in. Another employee said it was 150. I’m not sure which. I asked if the city was making them do this or the corporation. They said it was a corporate decision.

I waited about 15 minutes to get into the store. There was no line at the cashier.

[sdduuuude]

San Diego has broken out of the exponential curve.

https://www.sandiegouniontribune.com/news/liveblog/coronavirus-live-updates-march-23

[sdduuuude]

[quote=Coronita]https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2020-03-24/pelosi-s-2-5-trillion-virus-bill-delays-mortgage-car-payments

So here’s a question. Do you think our government should provide a moratorium on mortgages during this virus or not?

If so, how is this different than back during the housing crisis of 2009 many piggs were saying we should just let people lose their homes who can’t make mortgage payments?

Personally, imho this time is different in that many people could not “prevent” this thing from happening and it wasn’t an issue about moral hazard. So if that’s the case, I don’t anticipate a sudden wave of panic selling, except maybe in places where the recovery would take longer than average.

That, our everyone sues China. They have money :).[/quote]

Banks don’t want to get a bunch of property in their portfolio now. They would be wise to do this on their own. Cal Coast Credit union sent us an email last week telling us we didn’t have to pay on our car loan for 60 days and there would be no interest accrued.

Maybe PMI kicks in for those who have it ? Not sure. I don’t have it.

[sdduuuude]

[quote=FlyerInHi][quote=sdduuuude]I wish someone would do map showing the # of cases as a percent of population by county. These absolute numbers don’t really show which areas are the worst off.

Or a growth rate by county.[/quote]

The best map by a Johns Hopkins professor, and her grad student who’s in China.
https://coronavirus.jhu.edu/map-faq.html%5B/quote%5D

That is exactly the chart I don’t want to see – showing absolute numbers. It makes it look like the entire US is sick when, in fact it is only one hundredth of one percent and the circle from New York encompases 10 other states. It looks like someone’s first time using Tableau.

I don’t assume that more densely populated areas would look worse on a percentage basis – which is why I want to see it on a percentage basis. San Diego seems in good shape, but how are we compared to other cities with our population density ? I wish I knew.

South of the equator looking to be in good shape – is it weather ? Or limited contact with China and Italy ?

[sdduuuude]

[quote=Coronita]Endgame is when these charts look better

https://www.worldometers.info/coronavirus/country/us/%5B/quote%5D

That site had some suspect numbers the last few days.
Number of critical cases in the US was stuck at 64 and at one point today’s New Deaths was larger than yesterday’s Critical Cases number. I sent them a note.Seems they updated it. 2% of active cases now critical.

US data Yesterday showed a possible inflection point on 3/20. The first break in the exponential growth. Not saying it will continue to break but something to watch.

Going to be a few weeks before those numbers can start to look good because of the 14-day incubation period and the amount of time it takes to shed the virus. Right now all the cases going into “closed” status are the early ones, which were likely people in very bad condition who waited to long to seek treatment.

I’m not sure that data is very useful given they aren’t testing random samples of the population. Maybe CDC using this “test only the infected” to heighten people’s acceptance of self-quarantine plans.

The testing process isn’t a random sample by any means so there is no way we can infer death rates from these at all.

I read somewhere that the 1.4% death rate in China was 1.4% of people who showed symptoms and tested positive. I can’t find that link. We have no information about how many people who might be infected but show now symptoms.

I think an endgame needs better testing and that stay-at-home orders are a result of not having good testing and reasonable random-sample statistics.

I still think the end game is this looks like the flu with a deadlier start-up year. I think it will be seasonal, fairly pervasive, immunizations available, better treatment plan, death-rate down near 0.1% of INFECTED people and much worse for the old.

It is the birth of a new flu, which we have been living and dying with for decades so I don’t think it will change our life much at all, come Summer.

[sdduuuude]

I wish someone would do map showing the # of cases as a percent of population by county. These absolute numbers don’t really show which areas are the worst off.

Or a growth rate by county.

[sdduuuude]

This is your Home Depot report for the day.

Not nearly as crowded today as the last two days.

Parking lot and store noticeably barren around 8:30 a.m.

Later in the day, was back to maybe just a bit lighter traffic than a normal Sunday.

People seem pretty good about giving each other space.

The city closed the beach parking lots because too many people “gathering”.

[sdduuuude]

I went to Home Depot with a couple thousand other people.

Seriously. Second day in a row. It wasn’t packed, but noticeably busy.

Trying to get my Mom’s house prepped for sale. I hope housing has some life in it late this Spring.

[Author]

Posts