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And another thing – even if I do acquiesce and say “yes we need government for these kinds of crises” that really doesn’t explain why they need to spend so much when there isn’t a crisis.

Note that when the economy took a hit congress gave money back to the people to stimulate the economy which, for me, begs the question – how good would the economy be if they hadn’t taken it in the first place?

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[quote=outtamojo][quote=zk][quote=sdduuuude]

I can’t imagine saying “this is the fault of anyone in the government because they didn’t tell me what to do properly.” That just doesn’t make sense.
[/quote]

Straw man. No one (or hardly anyone) is saying “they didn’t tell me what to do.”

[/quote]

Ya. Everyone in AZ was whining that the governor didn’t order a lockdown soon enough.

I believe that more people would take action to help if they weren’t so reliant on the government. It seems more and more these days people consider “activism” to be “yelling at the government to do something” rather than working directly with people. As is such with this threat. I heard someone say today that healthcare workers are frustrated because there is no leadership from the federal government. I actually heard that. What ? What does that even mean ? Why should the fed be leading the frontline healthcare workers ?

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[quote=zk]This is EXACTLY the kind of thing that we need government for. What we needed was early and fast action on tests. We could have had far fewer infections and probably avoided some of the economic damage, also, because less social distancing is necessary if you know who has the virus.[/quote]

This is exactly what we need government for – and they failed (according to you). Again. So, we should or should not continue looking to them to save us?

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Si. I was worried it was centered in LA which would have had to be major to shake like that. But thankfully not so huge, just close.

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Earthquake !

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Right now, to me, I blame most of this on bad luck. But, out of all the possible responses, I’m not sure this one is so bad so I’m not sure there is any “blaming” to be done.

Although the US has the most cases, we are 20th in the world in terms of deaths per million.

Also, in the US, the novel corona virus for which there is no immunization, has still not killed more than 25% of the people that the flu has killed. Yes, NY is bad. Yes SF is bad. But all told, I could imagine alot worse.

It is sad that the people who like Trump are using this to say he is doing well and the people who don’t are using this to say he is awful. I say he has nothing to do with it either way. In the end, people have to choose the path of this thing.

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Anyone who expects the government to save them from this deserves whatever they get. I can’t imagine saying “this is the fault of anyone in the government because they didn’t tell me what to do properly.” That just doesn’t make sense.

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I am sorry to hear this scardy. When people you know start dying, the more people will start taking measures to stop it. That’s the only positive I can come up with.

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I am surprised that SD numbers getting worse this week. Thought the school and bar closings would have had some effect on the numbers by now. They were looking linear there of about 55/ day for a week then all of the sudden jumped to 120 or so for three days running now. Governor’s SOH order was two weeks ago today. I hope that starts to have some effect on our numbers soon.

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[quote=outtamojo][quote=svelte]I figure the bottom will be sometime between Monday (reacting to Trumps extension of distancing until end of April) and the middle of April (when I think deaths in the US should peak).

As early as late April, I’m hoping we start to see a recovery though it will probably not be robust and will take a long time to get anywhere close to where we were before this hit…certainly not this year. Too much of a mess to mop up first.[/quote]

This may last longer than we think because of idiots from Liberty University and spring breakers.[/quote]

Doesn’t
“Flattening the curve” = “last longer”

The spring breakers may shorten it, actually.

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[quote=teaboy]“Two new road maps lay out possible paths to end coronavirus lockdowns”
https://www.statnews.com/2020/03/29/two-new-road-maps-lay-out-possible-paths-to-end-coronavirus-lockdowns/%5B/quote%5D

Thank goodness someone said this:

“… former Food and Drug Administration commissioner Scott Gottlieb and colleagues, doesn’t set a date, but rather outlines the evidence that communities would need to begin lifting some of the more draconian restrictions.”

If only our President or Bill Gates had been that smart.

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That is so useful. Thanks. If I hadn’t posted, they wouldn’t have done that !

Maybe Hopkins will take that data and put it on a map.

That shows Europe is in really bad shape. US deaths – 8 per million or 1 in 125,000. Italy deaths – 1 in 5617. Also, the first US case was 9 days before Italy. Claiming that the US leads the world in CV cases is meaningless. Stupid press.

Now I want to see growth rates – one color for inverse exponential, one color for linear and different colors for doubling times of 1, 2, 3, 4, 5, 6, 7, 8, 9, 10 days for those growing exponentially.

Conjur that up !

I hope your friends are winning the battle.

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[quote=svelte][quote=sdduuuude]

Yes. I was just thinking the other day – I’d really like news coverage that makes me do my own calcs.[/quote]

Especially when it takes so much less effort to complain about it on a blog.[/quote]

Heaven forbid I keep to the topic at hand:

[quote=teaboy]Is anyone else utterly disappointed with the lack of intellectual rigor in most clickbait “news” articles these days?[/quote]

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Italy locked down March 12 and went linear about March 22. that’s only 10 days. Italy is definitely in linear growth phase now and has been for a few days.

I wonder if the lockdown was effective or if the whole country is now so infected that the virus is having a hard time finding new hosts.

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San Diego trying to get back into exponential behavior again. Number of new cases per day is growing but the doubling time is 4 or 5 days instead of 3 and it was linear for a couple of days there.

The r0 / r3 values are for a society with unchanged behavior patterns. From what I can tell from my Home Depot trips and people I know – most in San Diego are being pretty good about social distancing. Not so much with staying home but pretty good about small groups, not going to bars (obviously since they aren’t open), parents we know keeping kids home.

San Diego closed Schools two Sundays ago and schools the day after that so the 14 day incubation period on unmodified social behavior is coming to an end in a couple days. I’m hopeful it changes the numbers and r drops below 1 for San Diego after Tuesday or Wednesday.

Deaths may go exponential for another week or two, however.

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