[sdcellar]

Thanks, jp, that is what I’m trying to ask. That is the $64,000 (and interesting) question.

The Retuers article justinmac posted today captured the question nicely: Foreclosures being processed surged nearly 80 percent in the second quarter from a year earlier to nearly 1 million. But completed foreclosures fell nearly 10 percent to 106,007, the OCC says.

If only they provided the answer to how all it’s all being held back so effectively (or at least it appears effective). Clearly, Rt.66 has declared that an exercise left to the reader. I don’t fault him for not knowing, I’ve admitted I don’t, but he could maybe relax a little.

[sdcellar]

Pretty much what I expected. If you posted with regard to question I asked, point me to it. All I’ve heard is shadow, shadow, shadow. As I mentioned in another post, my 4 1/2 year old talks about the shadow inventory. We both believe that something is looming out there, we just have no idea where it is and when it will materialize.

I stated as much and based on your response(s), sounds like you don’t know either. If you don’t know what’s keeping it off the market, then how in the heck can you identify what’s going to make that change?

I don’t think it’s the seconds, at least not in any significant fashion. Loan mods might make a dent, but it sounds like those have still been coming slow in coming and don’t really work very effectively anyway (especially at So Cal valuations).

But again, I’ve admitted that I don’t know where they’re piling up. You seem to be in the same position (or you’d just answer the question and show us how clever you are).

No, I’m not a realtor. My handle is three years old. Do you think I thought the bottom was in back then? I certainly don’t right now. It’s simply where I’m from (S.D.) and what I considered clever wordplay at the time (seller, as in I’d sold my house, and cellar, as in basement/bottom/waiting for same[-ish]). For the record, I’m a software engineer. What do you do?

[sdcellar]

Pretty much what I expected. If you posted with regard to question I asked, point me to it. All I’ve heard is shadow, shadow, shadow. As I mentioned in another post, my 4 1/2 year old talks about the shadow inventory. We both believe that something is looming out there, we just have no idea where it is and when it will materialize.

I stated as much and based on your response(s), sounds like you don’t know either. If you don’t know what’s keeping it off the market, then how in the heck can you identify what’s going to make that change?

I don’t think it’s the seconds, at least not in any significant fashion. Loan mods might make a dent, but it sounds like those have still been coming slow in coming and don’t really work very effectively anyway (especially at So Cal valuations).

But again, I’ve admitted that I don’t know where they’re piling up. You seem to be in the same position (or you’d just answer the question and show us how clever you are).

No, I’m not a realtor. My handle is three years old. Do you think I thought the bottom was in back then? I certainly don’t right now. It’s simply where I’m from (S.D.) and what I considered clever wordplay at the time (seller, as in I’d sold my house, and cellar, as in basement/bottom/waiting for same[-ish]). For the record, I’m a software engineer. What do you do?

[sdcellar]

Pretty much what I expected. If you posted with regard to question I asked, point me to it. All I’ve heard is shadow, shadow, shadow. As I mentioned in another post, my 4 1/2 year old talks about the shadow inventory. We both believe that something is looming out there, we just have no idea where it is and when it will materialize.

I stated as much and based on your response(s), sounds like you don’t know either. If you don’t know what’s keeping it off the market, then how in the heck can you identify what’s going to make that change?

I don’t think it’s the seconds, at least not in any significant fashion. Loan mods might make a dent, but it sounds like those have still been coming slow in coming and don’t really work very effectively anyway (especially at So Cal valuations).

But again, I’ve admitted that I don’t know where they’re piling up. You seem to be in the same position (or you’d just answer the question and show us how clever you are).

No, I’m not a realtor. My handle is three years old. Do you think I thought the bottom was in back then? I certainly don’t right now. It’s simply where I’m from (S.D.) and what I considered clever wordplay at the time (seller, as in I’d sold my house, and cellar, as in basement/bottom/waiting for same[-ish]). For the record, I’m a software engineer. What do you do?

[sdcellar]

Pretty much what I expected. If you posted with regard to question I asked, point me to it. All I’ve heard is shadow, shadow, shadow. As I mentioned in another post, my 4 1/2 year old talks about the shadow inventory. We both believe that something is looming out there, we just have no idea where it is and when it will materialize.

I stated as much and based on your response(s), sounds like you don’t know either. If you don’t know what’s keeping it off the market, then how in the heck can you identify what’s going to make that change?

I don’t think it’s the seconds, at least not in any significant fashion. Loan mods might make a dent, but it sounds like those have still been coming slow in coming and don’t really work very effectively anyway (especially at So Cal valuations).

But again, I’ve admitted that I don’t know where they’re piling up. You seem to be in the same position (or you’d just answer the question and show us how clever you are).

No, I’m not a realtor. My handle is three years old. Do you think I thought the bottom was in back then? I certainly don’t right now. It’s simply where I’m from (S.D.) and what I considered clever wordplay at the time (seller, as in I’d sold my house, and cellar, as in basement/bottom/waiting for same[-ish]). For the record, I’m a software engineer. What do you do?

[sdcellar]

Pretty much what I expected. If you posted with regard to question I asked, point me to it. All I’ve heard is shadow, shadow, shadow. As I mentioned in another post, my 4 1/2 year old talks about the shadow inventory. We both believe that something is looming out there, we just have no idea where it is and when it will materialize.

I stated as much and based on your response(s), sounds like you don’t know either. If you don’t know what’s keeping it off the market, then how in the heck can you identify what’s going to make that change?

I don’t think it’s the seconds, at least not in any significant fashion. Loan mods might make a dent, but it sounds like those have still been coming slow in coming and don’t really work very effectively anyway (especially at So Cal valuations).

But again, I’ve admitted that I don’t know where they’re piling up. You seem to be in the same position (or you’d just answer the question and show us how clever you are).

No, I’m not a realtor. My handle is three years old. Do you think I thought the bottom was in back then? I certainly don’t right now. It’s simply where I’m from (S.D.) and what I considered clever wordplay at the time (seller, as in I’d sold my house, and cellar, as in basement/bottom/waiting for same[-ish]). For the record, I’m a software engineer. What do you do?

[sdcellar]

Rt.66– Okay, so, I still haven’t gleaned exactly (or even roughly) where you think all this shadow inventory is being held. I think a lot of folks think it’s out there, but unless it hits the market, it doesn’t really matter does it?

So, how is it being held back and more importantly, what’s going to happen that changes that?

Also, you may have posted the exactly what I’m asking and I just missed it among the many missives you’ve written lately (or I was out to lunch whatever week you did provide such commentary). Don’t take this as anything other than a question to which I truly do not know the answer.

[sdcellar]

Rt.66– Okay, so, I still haven’t gleaned exactly (or even roughly) where you think all this shadow inventory is being held. I think a lot of folks think it’s out there, but unless it hits the market, it doesn’t really matter does it?

So, how is it being held back and more importantly, what’s going to happen that changes that?

Also, you may have posted the exactly what I’m asking and I just missed it among the many missives you’ve written lately (or I was out to lunch whatever week you did provide such commentary). Don’t take this as anything other than a question to which I truly do not know the answer.

[sdcellar]

Rt.66– Okay, so, I still haven’t gleaned exactly (or even roughly) where you think all this shadow inventory is being held. I think a lot of folks think it’s out there, but unless it hits the market, it doesn’t really matter does it?

So, how is it being held back and more importantly, what’s going to happen that changes that?

Also, you may have posted the exactly what I’m asking and I just missed it among the many missives you’ve written lately (or I was out to lunch whatever week you did provide such commentary). Don’t take this as anything other than a question to which I truly do not know the answer.

[sdcellar]

Rt.66– Okay, so, I still haven’t gleaned exactly (or even roughly) where you think all this shadow inventory is being held. I think a lot of folks think it’s out there, but unless it hits the market, it doesn’t really matter does it?

So, how is it being held back and more importantly, what’s going to happen that changes that?

Also, you may have posted the exactly what I’m asking and I just missed it among the many missives you’ve written lately (or I was out to lunch whatever week you did provide such commentary). Don’t take this as anything other than a question to which I truly do not know the answer.

[sdcellar]

Rt.66– Okay, so, I still haven’t gleaned exactly (or even roughly) where you think all this shadow inventory is being held. I think a lot of folks think it’s out there, but unless it hits the market, it doesn’t really matter does it?

So, how is it being held back and more importantly, what’s going to happen that changes that?

Also, you may have posted the exactly what I’m asking and I just missed it among the many missives you’ve written lately (or I was out to lunch whatever week you did provide such commentary). Don’t take this as anything other than a question to which I truly do not know the answer.

[sdcellar]

[quote=CA renter]Although many of us would like to think we’re buying our “last” house, life has a tendency to be unpredictable, and any number of events — like changes in family formation (marriage, divorce kids, in-laws, etc.), job loss or transfer, etc.– might force someone to have to sell. Better to have bought near the low, so that you are always able to sell at any point in the future.[/quote]

Agree that it’s difficult (impossible?) for anyone to see 30 years out. I tend to think a good approach is to make sure things work for you 7-10 years out with somewhat challenging assumptions (e.g. value drops another 15-20%, can’t re-fi, must sell, etc.). If that can work, then it typically only gets better from there.

[sdcellar]

[quote=CA renter]Although many of us would like to think we’re buying our “last” house, life has a tendency to be unpredictable, and any number of events — like changes in family formation (marriage, divorce kids, in-laws, etc.), job loss or transfer, etc.– might force someone to have to sell. Better to have bought near the low, so that you are always able to sell at any point in the future.[/quote]

Agree that it’s difficult (impossible?) for anyone to see 30 years out. I tend to think a good approach is to make sure things work for you 7-10 years out with somewhat challenging assumptions (e.g. value drops another 15-20%, can’t re-fi, must sell, etc.). If that can work, then it typically only gets better from there.

[sdcellar]

[quote=CA renter]Although many of us would like to think we’re buying our “last” house, life has a tendency to be unpredictable, and any number of events — like changes in family formation (marriage, divorce kids, in-laws, etc.), job loss or transfer, etc.– might force someone to have to sell. Better to have bought near the low, so that you are always able to sell at any point in the future.[/quote]

Agree that it’s difficult (impossible?) for anyone to see 30 years out. I tend to think a good approach is to make sure things work for you 7-10 years out with somewhat challenging assumptions (e.g. value drops another 15-20%, can’t re-fi, must sell, etc.). If that can work, then it typically only gets better from there.

[sdcellar]

[quote=CA renter]Although many of us would like to think we’re buying our “last” house, life has a tendency to be unpredictable, and any number of events — like changes in family formation (marriage, divorce kids, in-laws, etc.), job loss or transfer, etc.– might force someone to have to sell. Better to have bought near the low, so that you are always able to sell at any point in the future.[/quote]

Agree that it’s difficult (impossible?) for anyone to see 30 years out. I tend to think a good approach is to make sure things work for you 7-10 years out with somewhat challenging assumptions (e.g. value drops another 15-20%, can’t re-fi, must sell, etc.). If that can work, then it typically only gets better from there.

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