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SD Realtor
ParticipantBecause there have been those same defaults in 4S with auction dates in 2007, 2008, 2009, 2010, 2011 and here we are in 2012.
If the tsunami did not hit then, why would it hit now in the face of a stronger effort to halt them? This is not to say there have not been foreclosures and short sales in 4S, however if you think there will be enough inventory to produce a substantial price movement… well I would disagree for that 2500 to 3000 sf home demo.
ParticipantYep I remember all the posts in 06 and 07 about how finally Wall Street, corrupt lenders and instutions, and foolish buyers would all get thiers… heheheheh…
What a sad joke…
ParticipantParamount I think it would be an interesting experiment. If you think about it, homeowners who did play by the rules are actually more deserving then those who did not. They are the ones who would probably be more productive with the savings from a writedown then those who did not. Then again it could be my cynical nature coming to the surface with that statement.
Either way let it rain baby!!
ParticipantHey SK I knew I saw you at one of those tea parties…
I agree with Allan SK… You being pegged for spouting right wing party rhetoric was the best post on this site for months.
Pretty good analysis as well… cannot disagree with you.
Participantsdr and pr
You guys are very correct on the opaque nature of the Chinese. I would agree that this would be the biggest impediment to internationalization for the yuan.
I guess we will see how it plays out. I do think that our system is fundamentally broken as pr referenced what he thought Rich was trying to say… demand being driven by “irrational decisions”.
Participantpr in general for the very short term I would agree (but alter) your above statement to read:
“Since the world cannot avoid currency altogether, investors will stay with least risky (internationalized) currency (by a long-shot): The US Dollar”
Once the yuan reaches a certain threshold with regards to internationalization I think the game will change in a big way.
I also think that your argument hinges much more on the present then the future. Yes in the real world AT PRESENT, choices are very limited.
I am not arguing about the present but the future. I would argue that if trends of both the US and China continue at current rates, (which is not going to be the case because our debt servicing burden is non linear) that in the real world the choices will not be limited as they are now.
To me the argument that the investment choices are crappy now and will be crappy in the future doesn’t hold at the rates of change we are encountering.
ParticipantYes, psychology plays a huge part. But if capital is going to flee America en masse, where is it going to go that is safer?
Brian you make it sound like there is some fixed amount of capital that is needed to keep us afloat when in reality we keep falling further and further behind. It is like a pyramid where there is not any tangible product but you need to keep roping more and more friends in just to keep the churn going. Sooner or later it falls apart. Trying to minimize the problem using justification of what alternatives are there for investment is ridiculous. Money is made by moving it from place to place and constantly seeking better and more solid returns. Those will be found and just because you or I cannot identify them now doesn’t mean they don’t exist or will not exist tomorrow. Also China is working very hard to internationalize the yuan, and you know that.
It doesn’t matter where it goes. Go study the history of the reserve currency. All for the reasons for the dollar as a reserve (including giving the US the ability to penetrate foreign markets) are so far gone it is ridiculous.
The world is waking up.
Raising taxes, cutting spending (draconian or not draconian) will help a little bit but when we have to face dealing with the unfunded entitlements those measures will be nominal at best.
There simply will not be enough to go around.
Participantpr – I think the only problem with the argument of “what are the alternatives” are quite US centric. I would argue that a country like say China would say the alternative is the yuan or reminbi.
It is perfectly logical to assume (and in reality I believe it is happening) that China wants a bigger slice of the economic pie. I would say it is pretty much central to Beijings strategy. It doesn’t happen fast but over time, say 10-15 years…
Second and just as important, the US has a history and capacity of honoring its obligations. More then anything else this is why we are “safe haven” status. However there can (and I think) will be a tipping point. The spiraling debt service or a strategy of inflating our way out will be recognized and other currencies will be recognized as safe haven status. Agreed with you that is not the Euro but the yuan is looking pretty darn good.
I think that if there were tangible solutions on the horizon I would feel more confident but all I see on the horizon is 65T… I may be gone but my kids will not and that will suck for them.
ParticipantWell Rich… All at least we got some laughs out of this thread.
ParticipantUmmmm yeah…
I will go with Rich here. You pretty much did not point out any good counter arguments to what his article said.
Also people like George Soros are not so sure about the stability of America per this link:
http://www.thedailybeast.com/newsweek/2012/01/22/george-soros-on-the-coming-u-s-class-war.print.html
You also make it sound like the dollar as the reserved currency for the future is going to happen just because it was in the past. Do you really think that cannot change?
You have not addressed the 65T in unfunded liabilities as well….
As I said, I will go with Rich here. I really really really hope I am wrong.
January 23, 2012 at 5:25 PM in reply to: Primary residence becoming rental – impact on existing mortgage interest rate #736628ParticipantExcellent news and good job!
January 23, 2012 at 10:12 AM in reply to: Primary residence becoming rental – impact on existing mortgage interest rate #736613ParticipantWhen you did the refi did you state it was for owner occupancy? If you did then you may have some explaining to do.
Good luck.
January 23, 2012 at 9:09 AM in reply to: Primary residence becoming rental – impact on existing mortgage interest rate #736609ParticipantAgreed with FSD. Why are you calling the lender to notify them?
ParticipantBack at you ocr, I do think that if there is value in 4S I would look at the south side for the reasons you posted. The stock is older and you may need to do some upgrading but if you are gonna plan on staying for the long run, you save alot in recurring fees.
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