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ParticipantHi Jeeman
I did not consider that one. I see the drop to 196 but I cut that retracement off at the 263 level that it hit on Dec 9th in 1929. From that level it went back down to 240 and then back to the 294 level you indicated. To me (and I am by no means a technical expert) that would indicate two seperate lower lows and highs.
Again, to me the market is a rigged game.
When you go to vegas you will lose if you play long enough. You will lose everything. If you don’t play you will lose nothing. It is all about risk and the market is not any different. If you have no appetite for risk then don’t play at all. However it is far to easy to come out and say after the runup that we have had that this is a suckers rally. It is harder to say I was a sucker for not buying into the rally at 7000, or 7500 or even 8000. Nobody forces you to stay in.
Also we are in a far far far more manipulated market now more then ever and I believe it will be dictated by the powers that be that the market will not be “allowed” to fall in the same percentages as it did in 1929.
ParticipantHi Jeeman
I did not consider that one. I see the drop to 196 but I cut that retracement off at the 263 level that it hit on Dec 9th in 1929. From that level it went back down to 240 and then back to the 294 level you indicated. To me (and I am by no means a technical expert) that would indicate two seperate lower lows and highs.
Again, to me the market is a rigged game.
When you go to vegas you will lose if you play long enough. You will lose everything. If you don’t play you will lose nothing. It is all about risk and the market is not any different. If you have no appetite for risk then don’t play at all. However it is far to easy to come out and say after the runup that we have had that this is a suckers rally. It is harder to say I was a sucker for not buying into the rally at 7000, or 7500 or even 8000. Nobody forces you to stay in.
Also we are in a far far far more manipulated market now more then ever and I believe it will be dictated by the powers that be that the market will not be “allowed” to fall in the same percentages as it did in 1929.
ParticipantHi Jeeman
I did not consider that one. I see the drop to 196 but I cut that retracement off at the 263 level that it hit on Dec 9th in 1929. From that level it went back down to 240 and then back to the 294 level you indicated. To me (and I am by no means a technical expert) that would indicate two seperate lower lows and highs.
Again, to me the market is a rigged game.
When you go to vegas you will lose if you play long enough. You will lose everything. If you don’t play you will lose nothing. It is all about risk and the market is not any different. If you have no appetite for risk then don’t play at all. However it is far to easy to come out and say after the runup that we have had that this is a suckers rally. It is harder to say I was a sucker for not buying into the rally at 7000, or 7500 or even 8000. Nobody forces you to stay in.
Also we are in a far far far more manipulated market now more then ever and I believe it will be dictated by the powers that be that the market will not be “allowed” to fall in the same percentages as it did in 1929.
ParticipantMe to!
ParticipantMe to!
ParticipantMe to!
ParticipantMe to!
ParticipantMe to!
Participantflu I would imagine you are sitting pretty right now.
Participantflu I would imagine you are sitting pretty right now.
Participantflu I would imagine you are sitting pretty right now.
Participantflu I would imagine you are sitting pretty right now.
Participantflu I would imagine you are sitting pretty right now.
ParticipantActually Scaredycat your analysis is incorrect.
Lets set the facts. August of 29 the DOW peaked at about 380. From there it went down in a classic lower lows, and lower highs series of cyclical patterns until it bottomed out in July of 1932 at 41. So about a 92% loss. Now, you cannot find any retracement in that secular decline from August of 29 to July of 1932 a retracement that exceeded much more then 22%. Nothing at all.
Now it is true that up until our March lows the Dow was exhibiting a very similar pattern to the depression behavior. However we have blown that out of the water and the retracement we have seen has blown through the retracements seen in 1929, 1930, 1931, and 1932.
In fact the retracement we have seen since March of 2009 looks EXACTLY like the retracement seen in July of 1932. Not a little bit like it, but just like it.
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Now can we go back down? Of course. You are right the old way of doing business is done. The old way had to do with free markets and we are steering away from that. However that changes nothing about the rich getting richer. Nor does it change the fact that perception is much more important then reality and as long as government manipulation is alive and well, perceptions of our markets will be maintained. I am not saying our economy is healthy by any means. I am saying it doesnt really matter.
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