[SD Realtor]

sms you are DEFINITELY not the only fence sitter waiting for the expiration. For sure I would agree with the premise that buying a lower priced home in a higher rate environment is advantageous to the buyer. As AN pointed out it gets blurry because of alot of variables. I think it works for some and doesn’t work for others. Depends on the pile.

[SD Realtor]

sms you are DEFINITELY not the only fence sitter waiting for the expiration. For sure I would agree with the premise that buying a lower priced home in a higher rate environment is advantageous to the buyer. As AN pointed out it gets blurry because of alot of variables. I think it works for some and doesn’t work for others. Depends on the pile.

[SD Realtor]

sms you are DEFINITELY not the only fence sitter waiting for the expiration. For sure I would agree with the premise that buying a lower priced home in a higher rate environment is advantageous to the buyer. As AN pointed out it gets blurry because of alot of variables. I think it works for some and doesn’t work for others. Depends on the pile.

[SD Realtor]

sms you are DEFINITELY not the only fence sitter waiting for the expiration. For sure I would agree with the premise that buying a lower priced home in a higher rate environment is advantageous to the buyer. As AN pointed out it gets blurry because of alot of variables. I think it works for some and doesn’t work for others. Depends on the pile.

[SD Realtor]

DW and nocommon –

I am in the same boat. I haven’t bought a home yet and am very much a little guy as well. Please do not interpet my post as being a bull because I for one don’t consider myself one, nor I don’t believe anywhere in that post or any others I said the market will up and run away. I have said and maintained we have seen bounces in many neighborhoods already. The high end is still crumbling and will continue to do so as well.

I still am pretty bearish but I used to hold out hope that things would act like the last decline but I gave that up a long time ago. I still think we have a ways to go of flatness, maybe a little up or down for another year or so depending on what and where you are looking. I think that there will still be this hand that throttles the inventory as well. I am not saying you will be priced out forever but I am not so confident of an instant HUGE drop to occur due to the shadow inventory overhang. My money still rides on the interest rates shaking the pricing tree down but I am not sure when and how much.

I do not believe it can go on forever either. That is not my premise as well. All I am trying to address is a guess at where the shadow inventory is going to go over the next say…. 5 years….

DW you make a good point, even if it gets to your hands indirectly via an investor and nudges pricing lower, that is still reducing prices. Absolutely agreed.

I will try to be more precise in the point I am trying to make.

[SD Realtor]

DW and nocommon –

I am in the same boat. I haven’t bought a home yet and am very much a little guy as well. Please do not interpet my post as being a bull because I for one don’t consider myself one, nor I don’t believe anywhere in that post or any others I said the market will up and run away. I have said and maintained we have seen bounces in many neighborhoods already. The high end is still crumbling and will continue to do so as well.

I still am pretty bearish but I used to hold out hope that things would act like the last decline but I gave that up a long time ago. I still think we have a ways to go of flatness, maybe a little up or down for another year or so depending on what and where you are looking. I think that there will still be this hand that throttles the inventory as well. I am not saying you will be priced out forever but I am not so confident of an instant HUGE drop to occur due to the shadow inventory overhang. My money still rides on the interest rates shaking the pricing tree down but I am not sure when and how much.

I do not believe it can go on forever either. That is not my premise as well. All I am trying to address is a guess at where the shadow inventory is going to go over the next say…. 5 years….

DW you make a good point, even if it gets to your hands indirectly via an investor and nudges pricing lower, that is still reducing prices. Absolutely agreed.

I will try to be more precise in the point I am trying to make.

[SD Realtor]

DW and nocommon –

I am in the same boat. I haven’t bought a home yet and am very much a little guy as well. Please do not interpet my post as being a bull because I for one don’t consider myself one, nor I don’t believe anywhere in that post or any others I said the market will up and run away. I have said and maintained we have seen bounces in many neighborhoods already. The high end is still crumbling and will continue to do so as well.

I still am pretty bearish but I used to hold out hope that things would act like the last decline but I gave that up a long time ago. I still think we have a ways to go of flatness, maybe a little up or down for another year or so depending on what and where you are looking. I think that there will still be this hand that throttles the inventory as well. I am not saying you will be priced out forever but I am not so confident of an instant HUGE drop to occur due to the shadow inventory overhang. My money still rides on the interest rates shaking the pricing tree down but I am not sure when and how much.

I do not believe it can go on forever either. That is not my premise as well. All I am trying to address is a guess at where the shadow inventory is going to go over the next say…. 5 years….

DW you make a good point, even if it gets to your hands indirectly via an investor and nudges pricing lower, that is still reducing prices. Absolutely agreed.

I will try to be more precise in the point I am trying to make.

[SD Realtor]

DW and nocommon –

I am in the same boat. I haven’t bought a home yet and am very much a little guy as well. Please do not interpet my post as being a bull because I for one don’t consider myself one, nor I don’t believe anywhere in that post or any others I said the market will up and run away. I have said and maintained we have seen bounces in many neighborhoods already. The high end is still crumbling and will continue to do so as well.

I still am pretty bearish but I used to hold out hope that things would act like the last decline but I gave that up a long time ago. I still think we have a ways to go of flatness, maybe a little up or down for another year or so depending on what and where you are looking. I think that there will still be this hand that throttles the inventory as well. I am not saying you will be priced out forever but I am not so confident of an instant HUGE drop to occur due to the shadow inventory overhang. My money still rides on the interest rates shaking the pricing tree down but I am not sure when and how much.

I do not believe it can go on forever either. That is not my premise as well. All I am trying to address is a guess at where the shadow inventory is going to go over the next say…. 5 years….

DW you make a good point, even if it gets to your hands indirectly via an investor and nudges pricing lower, that is still reducing prices. Absolutely agreed.

I will try to be more precise in the point I am trying to make.

[SD Realtor]

DW and nocommon –

I am in the same boat. I haven’t bought a home yet and am very much a little guy as well. Please do not interpet my post as being a bull because I for one don’t consider myself one, nor I don’t believe anywhere in that post or any others I said the market will up and run away. I have said and maintained we have seen bounces in many neighborhoods already. The high end is still crumbling and will continue to do so as well.

I still am pretty bearish but I used to hold out hope that things would act like the last decline but I gave that up a long time ago. I still think we have a ways to go of flatness, maybe a little up or down for another year or so depending on what and where you are looking. I think that there will still be this hand that throttles the inventory as well. I am not saying you will be priced out forever but I am not so confident of an instant HUGE drop to occur due to the shadow inventory overhang. My money still rides on the interest rates shaking the pricing tree down but I am not sure when and how much.

I do not believe it can go on forever either. That is not my premise as well. All I am trying to address is a guess at where the shadow inventory is going to go over the next say…. 5 years….

DW you make a good point, even if it gets to your hands indirectly via an investor and nudges pricing lower, that is still reducing prices. Absolutely agreed.

I will try to be more precise in the point I am trying to make.

[SD Realtor]

Make no mistake about it, those who will benefit most from the rising rate environment will be the ones who have piles of cash. I didnt run your numbers AN but I do agree with your premise, the only comment I may throw in is that the 120k used to put down for the 600k home is now used for buying the 500k home so the buyer is coming in with a bit more cash to lower the balance a bit, but you may have already accounted for that.

The higher rates will help drag pricing down but pricing will FOLLOW the rates and that rubber band is a few months at least and not instantly. I am thinking over a longer term rates will be in double digits but that will be a ways out I believe.

Your illustration is very useful though. The moral of the story is if you are waiting to pounce when prices dump due to high rates, make sure you have a nice pile.

[SD Realtor]

Make no mistake about it, those who will benefit most from the rising rate environment will be the ones who have piles of cash. I didnt run your numbers AN but I do agree with your premise, the only comment I may throw in is that the 120k used to put down for the 600k home is now used for buying the 500k home so the buyer is coming in with a bit more cash to lower the balance a bit, but you may have already accounted for that.

The higher rates will help drag pricing down but pricing will FOLLOW the rates and that rubber band is a few months at least and not instantly. I am thinking over a longer term rates will be in double digits but that will be a ways out I believe.

Your illustration is very useful though. The moral of the story is if you are waiting to pounce when prices dump due to high rates, make sure you have a nice pile.

[SD Realtor]

Make no mistake about it, those who will benefit most from the rising rate environment will be the ones who have piles of cash. I didnt run your numbers AN but I do agree with your premise, the only comment I may throw in is that the 120k used to put down for the 600k home is now used for buying the 500k home so the buyer is coming in with a bit more cash to lower the balance a bit, but you may have already accounted for that.

The higher rates will help drag pricing down but pricing will FOLLOW the rates and that rubber band is a few months at least and not instantly. I am thinking over a longer term rates will be in double digits but that will be a ways out I believe.

Your illustration is very useful though. The moral of the story is if you are waiting to pounce when prices dump due to high rates, make sure you have a nice pile.

[SD Realtor]

Make no mistake about it, those who will benefit most from the rising rate environment will be the ones who have piles of cash. I didnt run your numbers AN but I do agree with your premise, the only comment I may throw in is that the 120k used to put down for the 600k home is now used for buying the 500k home so the buyer is coming in with a bit more cash to lower the balance a bit, but you may have already accounted for that.

The higher rates will help drag pricing down but pricing will FOLLOW the rates and that rubber band is a few months at least and not instantly. I am thinking over a longer term rates will be in double digits but that will be a ways out I believe.

Your illustration is very useful though. The moral of the story is if you are waiting to pounce when prices dump due to high rates, make sure you have a nice pile.

[SD Realtor]

Make no mistake about it, those who will benefit most from the rising rate environment will be the ones who have piles of cash. I didnt run your numbers AN but I do agree with your premise, the only comment I may throw in is that the 120k used to put down for the 600k home is now used for buying the 500k home so the buyer is coming in with a bit more cash to lower the balance a bit, but you may have already accounted for that.

The higher rates will help drag pricing down but pricing will FOLLOW the rates and that rubber band is a few months at least and not instantly. I am thinking over a longer term rates will be in double digits but that will be a ways out I believe.

Your illustration is very useful though. The moral of the story is if you are waiting to pounce when prices dump due to high rates, make sure you have a nice pile.

[SD Realtor]

I agree with sdr and with jp and arraya. Yes to everyone!

As a frequent visitor to the courthouse now it is almost funny to watch the purchasing now. Very skinny margins, and staggering numbers at downtown and el cajon. Big players from orange county and other syndications coming in and purchasing. If they make even 10% margin they are doing well for the investors.

On the other side yes my short sale that just closed had someone who did not pay on mortgage from April of 08 to now and the home sold. It did get a NOD and NOT.

I do agree that there are alot of people living for free. I also know that 2 of the homes we purchased had tenants in them who paid rent and the landlords pocketted the money. I am sure there is alot of that as well.

The argument, is not that there is not lots of shadow inventory out there, or lots of deadbeats. There are. I agree. Also when I read sdrs posts, I do not see him disputing that. The fact that he, nor I, can sit here and tell all of you where every single home is going to go may paint us in a “bulls light” in some of your eyes. So be it however that is not the case.

I think that we tend to believe it will be a case of the rich getting richer. Maybe private investors, maybe foreign syndications, maybe participants of the PPIP, or even other little guys. For myself personally I guess I am just to skeptical to believe this will all drip down to you and me. You see what I am saying? sdr may say it in a more brash manner but I think when we all read peoples postings we do it from our own perspective and that either jades us or pisses us off or some of us nod and go yeah I see what he is saying.

Are there enough entities out there to soak all this up? Not sure but I think we would all agree there certainly is a hell of alot of cash out there to soak it up. Not just in this country either. Now if we all agree that sometime down the road there is going to be massive inflation, then these entities that have purchased bulk homes may not be in a bad position. I guess it depends on what they want to do with them.

Taking the PPIP into account, if you read more about it, those deals are simply UNBEATABLE. It really is.

So to me the dispute is not about shadow inventory, shadow deadbeats, or future supply. Surely the number of homes going back to the bene at trustee sale DWARFS those purchased. No argument there. I am not going to sit and argue realtytrac stats and all that as well. They are what they are.

I have come to accept the game is not fair. I cannot afford to WAIT. It is much easier to sit and bring up posts about how bad things are, how bad they will be, and how everything will turn to turdberries. I think there is actually a bit of joy as things continue to worsen and bitterness if they will not.

It is much harder to look at things in an opportunistic way, shake yourself loose, take some risk and try to take advantage of the situation and make some money out of it. Life is absolutely not fair and success in our current society is much harder for little guys then big. I acknowledge the conditions, the possible future calamities, and risks, but I am not going to curl up and tell everyone to sit back and do nothing. To me that is not the answer.

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