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SD Realtor
ParticipantAndy what is happening is that the number of homes that do NOT make it to the actual auction has risen. When we started seriously attending and purchasing homes about 13 months ago the number of homes that actually made it to the auction and were available for bidding was about twice the number that we see nowadays. Now dont get me wrong, back then there would still be 350 properties scheduled on a given day and maybe 40 of them would get to actual bidding. The rest would be postponed. Now instead of 40 you see 20 for the same amount. I have also tracked homes where the trustee sale was cancelled but the home was never for sale (at least not on the MLS).
Understanding the end game is quite easy. The banks are doing what they are mandated to do. They will be backstopped by the govt. That was played out awhile ago. Rich posted ahwile back about shades of shadow inventory. In the end it doesn’t matter because it is about buying time. Look, if you abstract the problem it is not really any different then unfunded entitlements right? Housing stock, medicare, social security… there is not really any solution in place to deal with the underlying problem, just measures to pus the problem out of the spotlight of the present.
ParticipantAndy what is happening is that the number of homes that do NOT make it to the actual auction has risen. When we started seriously attending and purchasing homes about 13 months ago the number of homes that actually made it to the auction and were available for bidding was about twice the number that we see nowadays. Now dont get me wrong, back then there would still be 350 properties scheduled on a given day and maybe 40 of them would get to actual bidding. The rest would be postponed. Now instead of 40 you see 20 for the same amount. I have also tracked homes where the trustee sale was cancelled but the home was never for sale (at least not on the MLS).
Understanding the end game is quite easy. The banks are doing what they are mandated to do. They will be backstopped by the govt. That was played out awhile ago. Rich posted ahwile back about shades of shadow inventory. In the end it doesn’t matter because it is about buying time. Look, if you abstract the problem it is not really any different then unfunded entitlements right? Housing stock, medicare, social security… there is not really any solution in place to deal with the underlying problem, just measures to pus the problem out of the spotlight of the present.
ParticipantAndy what is happening is that the number of homes that do NOT make it to the actual auction has risen. When we started seriously attending and purchasing homes about 13 months ago the number of homes that actually made it to the auction and were available for bidding was about twice the number that we see nowadays. Now dont get me wrong, back then there would still be 350 properties scheduled on a given day and maybe 40 of them would get to actual bidding. The rest would be postponed. Now instead of 40 you see 20 for the same amount. I have also tracked homes where the trustee sale was cancelled but the home was never for sale (at least not on the MLS).
Understanding the end game is quite easy. The banks are doing what they are mandated to do. They will be backstopped by the govt. That was played out awhile ago. Rich posted ahwile back about shades of shadow inventory. In the end it doesn’t matter because it is about buying time. Look, if you abstract the problem it is not really any different then unfunded entitlements right? Housing stock, medicare, social security… there is not really any solution in place to deal with the underlying problem, just measures to pus the problem out of the spotlight of the present.
ParticipantI understand but I think the picture you have painted is lacking a bit.
Fundamentally you CAN get the home. You can go get a bridge loan from any one of the zillions of hard money lenders out there. You CAN go to the auctions. You CAN do all the homework that is involved, the title work, the legwork, and the risk. You CHOOSE not to.
Second, the numbers are indeed staggering if you really look at them, again, simply go to the websites and look at what actually even gets SOLD, do that for a month daily and look at the true statistics and you will see. Perception is one thing but real numbers are another. Finally flippers are not all looking for a POS home like you implied, not the pros. Yes a guy like Don Rady does that and others but if you talk to the guys at the auctions (which are mostly runners) flippers (the big guys) are agnostic about it. What they look for is the risk/return ratio. Indeed alot of the fixers you speak of tend to give better numbers but that doesn’t tell the whole story. A home in decent condition that will cost more but move faster may be more appealing. Tenant occupancy factors in, liens, neighborhood, desireability, FHA rules and seasoning, just a whole lot of stuff. You bundle it all together, and I am being sincere, then you make the assessment.
There was a home on Arroyo Grande in Torrey that went for 676k the other day! Are you kidding me! I will be surprised if the flippers make money on it or perhaps it was a buy to own person.
Anyways I understand what you are saying and the point. My argument would still be out of 100 fixers I would be surprised if flippers have 5 or more of those homes and the other 95 were postponed infintely, returned to the bene, short sold, and modified. Whereas those other 95 SHOULD have gone back to the bank immediately.
ParticipantI understand but I think the picture you have painted is lacking a bit.
Fundamentally you CAN get the home. You can go get a bridge loan from any one of the zillions of hard money lenders out there. You CAN go to the auctions. You CAN do all the homework that is involved, the title work, the legwork, and the risk. You CHOOSE not to.
Second, the numbers are indeed staggering if you really look at them, again, simply go to the websites and look at what actually even gets SOLD, do that for a month daily and look at the true statistics and you will see. Perception is one thing but real numbers are another. Finally flippers are not all looking for a POS home like you implied, not the pros. Yes a guy like Don Rady does that and others but if you talk to the guys at the auctions (which are mostly runners) flippers (the big guys) are agnostic about it. What they look for is the risk/return ratio. Indeed alot of the fixers you speak of tend to give better numbers but that doesn’t tell the whole story. A home in decent condition that will cost more but move faster may be more appealing. Tenant occupancy factors in, liens, neighborhood, desireability, FHA rules and seasoning, just a whole lot of stuff. You bundle it all together, and I am being sincere, then you make the assessment.
There was a home on Arroyo Grande in Torrey that went for 676k the other day! Are you kidding me! I will be surprised if the flippers make money on it or perhaps it was a buy to own person.
Anyways I understand what you are saying and the point. My argument would still be out of 100 fixers I would be surprised if flippers have 5 or more of those homes and the other 95 were postponed infintely, returned to the bene, short sold, and modified. Whereas those other 95 SHOULD have gone back to the bank immediately.
ParticipantI understand but I think the picture you have painted is lacking a bit.
Fundamentally you CAN get the home. You can go get a bridge loan from any one of the zillions of hard money lenders out there. You CAN go to the auctions. You CAN do all the homework that is involved, the title work, the legwork, and the risk. You CHOOSE not to.
Second, the numbers are indeed staggering if you really look at them, again, simply go to the websites and look at what actually even gets SOLD, do that for a month daily and look at the true statistics and you will see. Perception is one thing but real numbers are another. Finally flippers are not all looking for a POS home like you implied, not the pros. Yes a guy like Don Rady does that and others but if you talk to the guys at the auctions (which are mostly runners) flippers (the big guys) are agnostic about it. What they look for is the risk/return ratio. Indeed alot of the fixers you speak of tend to give better numbers but that doesn’t tell the whole story. A home in decent condition that will cost more but move faster may be more appealing. Tenant occupancy factors in, liens, neighborhood, desireability, FHA rules and seasoning, just a whole lot of stuff. You bundle it all together, and I am being sincere, then you make the assessment.
There was a home on Arroyo Grande in Torrey that went for 676k the other day! Are you kidding me! I will be surprised if the flippers make money on it or perhaps it was a buy to own person.
Anyways I understand what you are saying and the point. My argument would still be out of 100 fixers I would be surprised if flippers have 5 or more of those homes and the other 95 were postponed infintely, returned to the bene, short sold, and modified. Whereas those other 95 SHOULD have gone back to the bank immediately.
ParticipantI understand but I think the picture you have painted is lacking a bit.
Fundamentally you CAN get the home. You can go get a bridge loan from any one of the zillions of hard money lenders out there. You CAN go to the auctions. You CAN do all the homework that is involved, the title work, the legwork, and the risk. You CHOOSE not to.
Second, the numbers are indeed staggering if you really look at them, again, simply go to the websites and look at what actually even gets SOLD, do that for a month daily and look at the true statistics and you will see. Perception is one thing but real numbers are another. Finally flippers are not all looking for a POS home like you implied, not the pros. Yes a guy like Don Rady does that and others but if you talk to the guys at the auctions (which are mostly runners) flippers (the big guys) are agnostic about it. What they look for is the risk/return ratio. Indeed alot of the fixers you speak of tend to give better numbers but that doesn’t tell the whole story. A home in decent condition that will cost more but move faster may be more appealing. Tenant occupancy factors in, liens, neighborhood, desireability, FHA rules and seasoning, just a whole lot of stuff. You bundle it all together, and I am being sincere, then you make the assessment.
There was a home on Arroyo Grande in Torrey that went for 676k the other day! Are you kidding me! I will be surprised if the flippers make money on it or perhaps it was a buy to own person.
Anyways I understand what you are saying and the point. My argument would still be out of 100 fixers I would be surprised if flippers have 5 or more of those homes and the other 95 were postponed infintely, returned to the bene, short sold, and modified. Whereas those other 95 SHOULD have gone back to the bank immediately.
ParticipantI understand but I think the picture you have painted is lacking a bit.
Fundamentally you CAN get the home. You can go get a bridge loan from any one of the zillions of hard money lenders out there. You CAN go to the auctions. You CAN do all the homework that is involved, the title work, the legwork, and the risk. You CHOOSE not to.
Second, the numbers are indeed staggering if you really look at them, again, simply go to the websites and look at what actually even gets SOLD, do that for a month daily and look at the true statistics and you will see. Perception is one thing but real numbers are another. Finally flippers are not all looking for a POS home like you implied, not the pros. Yes a guy like Don Rady does that and others but if you talk to the guys at the auctions (which are mostly runners) flippers (the big guys) are agnostic about it. What they look for is the risk/return ratio. Indeed alot of the fixers you speak of tend to give better numbers but that doesn’t tell the whole story. A home in decent condition that will cost more but move faster may be more appealing. Tenant occupancy factors in, liens, neighborhood, desireability, FHA rules and seasoning, just a whole lot of stuff. You bundle it all together, and I am being sincere, then you make the assessment.
There was a home on Arroyo Grande in Torrey that went for 676k the other day! Are you kidding me! I will be surprised if the flippers make money on it or perhaps it was a buy to own person.
Anyways I understand what you are saying and the point. My argument would still be out of 100 fixers I would be surprised if flippers have 5 or more of those homes and the other 95 were postponed infintely, returned to the bene, short sold, and modified. Whereas those other 95 SHOULD have gone back to the bank immediately.
Participantsdr I know that. I just try to stick to facts, ya know what I mean?
Wholesale markets do exist for things but the perception that flippers are sucking all the inventory away is simply not correct. CAR and I have gone around the block on that a few times and I respect her opinions greatly. Bottom line is we (and many other investors) have piles of cash and cannot make a purchase at auction because there is a pathetic quantity to choose from. This really started in earnest about 8 months ago. Even last year my argument was the same that flippers amounted for a small amount of inventory but now it is miniscule. Also lag time is a factor, and as we move forward less flips will be available.
Similarly Arraya to sit and throw out statements while sitting behind a tube and cutting and pasting articles of how the world is falling apart is one thing, but to make a statement totally contrary to the reality of auctions is another. We PAY our staff to go to the auctions so yes we do know what is going on because reality is a bit different then what you perceive is going on behind your computer screen.
Participantsdr I know that. I just try to stick to facts, ya know what I mean?
Wholesale markets do exist for things but the perception that flippers are sucking all the inventory away is simply not correct. CAR and I have gone around the block on that a few times and I respect her opinions greatly. Bottom line is we (and many other investors) have piles of cash and cannot make a purchase at auction because there is a pathetic quantity to choose from. This really started in earnest about 8 months ago. Even last year my argument was the same that flippers amounted for a small amount of inventory but now it is miniscule. Also lag time is a factor, and as we move forward less flips will be available.
Similarly Arraya to sit and throw out statements while sitting behind a tube and cutting and pasting articles of how the world is falling apart is one thing, but to make a statement totally contrary to the reality of auctions is another. We PAY our staff to go to the auctions so yes we do know what is going on because reality is a bit different then what you perceive is going on behind your computer screen.
Participantsdr I know that. I just try to stick to facts, ya know what I mean?
Wholesale markets do exist for things but the perception that flippers are sucking all the inventory away is simply not correct. CAR and I have gone around the block on that a few times and I respect her opinions greatly. Bottom line is we (and many other investors) have piles of cash and cannot make a purchase at auction because there is a pathetic quantity to choose from. This really started in earnest about 8 months ago. Even last year my argument was the same that flippers amounted for a small amount of inventory but now it is miniscule. Also lag time is a factor, and as we move forward less flips will be available.
Similarly Arraya to sit and throw out statements while sitting behind a tube and cutting and pasting articles of how the world is falling apart is one thing, but to make a statement totally contrary to the reality of auctions is another. We PAY our staff to go to the auctions so yes we do know what is going on because reality is a bit different then what you perceive is going on behind your computer screen.
Participantsdr I know that. I just try to stick to facts, ya know what I mean?
Wholesale markets do exist for things but the perception that flippers are sucking all the inventory away is simply not correct. CAR and I have gone around the block on that a few times and I respect her opinions greatly. Bottom line is we (and many other investors) have piles of cash and cannot make a purchase at auction because there is a pathetic quantity to choose from. This really started in earnest about 8 months ago. Even last year my argument was the same that flippers amounted for a small amount of inventory but now it is miniscule. Also lag time is a factor, and as we move forward less flips will be available.
Similarly Arraya to sit and throw out statements while sitting behind a tube and cutting and pasting articles of how the world is falling apart is one thing, but to make a statement totally contrary to the reality of auctions is another. We PAY our staff to go to the auctions so yes we do know what is going on because reality is a bit different then what you perceive is going on behind your computer screen.
Participantsdr I know that. I just try to stick to facts, ya know what I mean?
Wholesale markets do exist for things but the perception that flippers are sucking all the inventory away is simply not correct. CAR and I have gone around the block on that a few times and I respect her opinions greatly. Bottom line is we (and many other investors) have piles of cash and cannot make a purchase at auction because there is a pathetic quantity to choose from. This really started in earnest about 8 months ago. Even last year my argument was the same that flippers amounted for a small amount of inventory but now it is miniscule. Also lag time is a factor, and as we move forward less flips will be available.
Similarly Arraya to sit and throw out statements while sitting behind a tube and cutting and pasting articles of how the world is falling apart is one thing, but to make a statement totally contrary to the reality of auctions is another. We PAY our staff to go to the auctions so yes we do know what is going on because reality is a bit different then what you perceive is going on behind your computer screen.
ParticipantNo it is not hard to see it. Go to fiedleity or Priority and you can see EXACTLY what is scheduled, what is sold, what goes to the bene, and what is postponed and why.
How many auctions have you been to here in San Diego again?
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