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SD Realtor
ParticipantI think you and I end up commenting on the number of buyers and psychology of buyers as well as true inventory that these types of buyers are looking for about every 18 months or so.
People who are newer to the blogs and read our posts on this particular subject probably instantly lump us into the “you have to buy now” type of realtors due to the content. As more experienced piggs would know that is not the point we are making and if anything we are more bearish/realistic then most realtors. It is simply observations through the experiences we have had that most don’t because of their own professions.
The point you made about the people you deal with daily is stark. One current client I have is an x engineer who got laid off in the dot com era, then started a wine company on his own and is younger then both of us and essentially is retired. All this was done in the last 8 years. Another client of mine is quite wealthy and the guy sells freeking hot dogs at county fairs in California. He works six months a year at best. Another client who is quite well off sells pies. A different client owns a bakery. Another one was a young couple whose father was an architect for casinos. Another one actually lives in China but wants to move back here in a few years.
The point here is that this is just a sample of people who are quite well off, but who want decent homes, not La Jolla or Del Mar, but nice homes of quality in neighborhoods that are established and more desired. Maybe LCV, or 4S, or CV or Encinitas, Scripps…. None of these are your typical engineers or attorneys but I have had lots and lots of those to. I am not saying the pool is infinite but I am saying that as my 20 years as an electrical engineer I never really conceived of all the “other people” out there competing against me in the housing market. I am not a grizzled veteran of real estate by any means either but in the 7 years doing it I have ABSOLUTELY learned much more about the market and psychology of the marketplace then I could have learned not doing it. It is hard to describe and post about so it would not surprise me if people reading the posts that we make when we talk about this particular subject shake their heads and go bullshit. I think bearishgurl sees it to as she has obviously been quite involved in RE. Anyways this doesnt mean prices will be forever infinitely high. No place is immune, period. We all know and realize that. However we have seen the govt react to the first leg of what I feel will now be a VERY LONG secular decline in RE. Forget about the 6 year cycle we had in the 90s. We are in for a grueling one here folks. As I have maintained for awhile the next big leg down will need a catalyst that not even the govt can withstand and that will be bond market driven. Will not happen for awhile. In the interim though we should get some slogging action and hopefully we will see more inventory growth and slower sales as the recession that never ended continues. However it will be very uneven and different areas of desire will continue to do well even or maintain pricing. Just depends on the psychology of the buyers. They will always be there.
ParticipantI think you and I end up commenting on the number of buyers and psychology of buyers as well as true inventory that these types of buyers are looking for about every 18 months or so.
People who are newer to the blogs and read our posts on this particular subject probably instantly lump us into the “you have to buy now” type of realtors due to the content. As more experienced piggs would know that is not the point we are making and if anything we are more bearish/realistic then most realtors. It is simply observations through the experiences we have had that most don’t because of their own professions.
The point you made about the people you deal with daily is stark. One current client I have is an x engineer who got laid off in the dot com era, then started a wine company on his own and is younger then both of us and essentially is retired. All this was done in the last 8 years. Another client of mine is quite wealthy and the guy sells freeking hot dogs at county fairs in California. He works six months a year at best. Another client who is quite well off sells pies. A different client owns a bakery. Another one was a young couple whose father was an architect for casinos. Another one actually lives in China but wants to move back here in a few years.
The point here is that this is just a sample of people who are quite well off, but who want decent homes, not La Jolla or Del Mar, but nice homes of quality in neighborhoods that are established and more desired. Maybe LCV, or 4S, or CV or Encinitas, Scripps…. None of these are your typical engineers or attorneys but I have had lots and lots of those to. I am not saying the pool is infinite but I am saying that as my 20 years as an electrical engineer I never really conceived of all the “other people” out there competing against me in the housing market. I am not a grizzled veteran of real estate by any means either but in the 7 years doing it I have ABSOLUTELY learned much more about the market and psychology of the marketplace then I could have learned not doing it. It is hard to describe and post about so it would not surprise me if people reading the posts that we make when we talk about this particular subject shake their heads and go bullshit. I think bearishgurl sees it to as she has obviously been quite involved in RE. Anyways this doesnt mean prices will be forever infinitely high. No place is immune, period. We all know and realize that. However we have seen the govt react to the first leg of what I feel will now be a VERY LONG secular decline in RE. Forget about the 6 year cycle we had in the 90s. We are in for a grueling one here folks. As I have maintained for awhile the next big leg down will need a catalyst that not even the govt can withstand and that will be bond market driven. Will not happen for awhile. In the interim though we should get some slogging action and hopefully we will see more inventory growth and slower sales as the recession that never ended continues. However it will be very uneven and different areas of desire will continue to do well even or maintain pricing. Just depends on the psychology of the buyers. They will always be there.
ParticipantI think you and I end up commenting on the number of buyers and psychology of buyers as well as true inventory that these types of buyers are looking for about every 18 months or so.
People who are newer to the blogs and read our posts on this particular subject probably instantly lump us into the “you have to buy now” type of realtors due to the content. As more experienced piggs would know that is not the point we are making and if anything we are more bearish/realistic then most realtors. It is simply observations through the experiences we have had that most don’t because of their own professions.
The point you made about the people you deal with daily is stark. One current client I have is an x engineer who got laid off in the dot com era, then started a wine company on his own and is younger then both of us and essentially is retired. All this was done in the last 8 years. Another client of mine is quite wealthy and the guy sells freeking hot dogs at county fairs in California. He works six months a year at best. Another client who is quite well off sells pies. A different client owns a bakery. Another one was a young couple whose father was an architect for casinos. Another one actually lives in China but wants to move back here in a few years.
The point here is that this is just a sample of people who are quite well off, but who want decent homes, not La Jolla or Del Mar, but nice homes of quality in neighborhoods that are established and more desired. Maybe LCV, or 4S, or CV or Encinitas, Scripps…. None of these are your typical engineers or attorneys but I have had lots and lots of those to. I am not saying the pool is infinite but I am saying that as my 20 years as an electrical engineer I never really conceived of all the “other people” out there competing against me in the housing market. I am not a grizzled veteran of real estate by any means either but in the 7 years doing it I have ABSOLUTELY learned much more about the market and psychology of the marketplace then I could have learned not doing it. It is hard to describe and post about so it would not surprise me if people reading the posts that we make when we talk about this particular subject shake their heads and go bullshit. I think bearishgurl sees it to as she has obviously been quite involved in RE. Anyways this doesnt mean prices will be forever infinitely high. No place is immune, period. We all know and realize that. However we have seen the govt react to the first leg of what I feel will now be a VERY LONG secular decline in RE. Forget about the 6 year cycle we had in the 90s. We are in for a grueling one here folks. As I have maintained for awhile the next big leg down will need a catalyst that not even the govt can withstand and that will be bond market driven. Will not happen for awhile. In the interim though we should get some slogging action and hopefully we will see more inventory growth and slower sales as the recession that never ended continues. However it will be very uneven and different areas of desire will continue to do well even or maintain pricing. Just depends on the psychology of the buyers. They will always be there.
ParticipantI would say that over the past 4 years there are maybe 3 or 4 homes (that I could afford) and really liked enough to put offers on. The one that probably hurt the most was the one in Scripps in few summers back. My offer was accepted and we were in escrow and we backed out because the home had alot of remediation needed. Looking back that was a huge mistake. Since then the only home that I have seen that I really wanted badly was one that I found for a client in High Valley. It was about 150k to expensive for me. He lowballed it at first and the bank (it was an reo) didn’t even counter. Curious, after his lowball the bank lowered the list price but still not close to his price. He came back a month later and lowballed again. The bank didn’t counter again. I called the agent and asked what it would take to get the home. He conveyed it to me, I told my client and he got the home. He didn’t get it at his price, paid about 5% more then he wanted but he loves it and it is a unique custom home on a few acres up there with fantastic views. Could he have gotten it for a lower price if he waited? Perhaps. However that was several months ago and he is already refinancing and is very happy. He was considering 4S Ranch, as well as some other high end places in Poway. He also was considering some land in the unincorporated area just outside of Santa Luz as there are some lots there. They saw this home and it was a no brainer for them. Paid a little more for it. Definitely one of my favorite homes and I would take it in a heartbeat if I could afford it.
ParticipantI would say that over the past 4 years there are maybe 3 or 4 homes (that I could afford) and really liked enough to put offers on. The one that probably hurt the most was the one in Scripps in few summers back. My offer was accepted and we were in escrow and we backed out because the home had alot of remediation needed. Looking back that was a huge mistake. Since then the only home that I have seen that I really wanted badly was one that I found for a client in High Valley. It was about 150k to expensive for me. He lowballed it at first and the bank (it was an reo) didn’t even counter. Curious, after his lowball the bank lowered the list price but still not close to his price. He came back a month later and lowballed again. The bank didn’t counter again. I called the agent and asked what it would take to get the home. He conveyed it to me, I told my client and he got the home. He didn’t get it at his price, paid about 5% more then he wanted but he loves it and it is a unique custom home on a few acres up there with fantastic views. Could he have gotten it for a lower price if he waited? Perhaps. However that was several months ago and he is already refinancing and is very happy. He was considering 4S Ranch, as well as some other high end places in Poway. He also was considering some land in the unincorporated area just outside of Santa Luz as there are some lots there. They saw this home and it was a no brainer for them. Paid a little more for it. Definitely one of my favorite homes and I would take it in a heartbeat if I could afford it.
ParticipantI would say that over the past 4 years there are maybe 3 or 4 homes (that I could afford) and really liked enough to put offers on. The one that probably hurt the most was the one in Scripps in few summers back. My offer was accepted and we were in escrow and we backed out because the home had alot of remediation needed. Looking back that was a huge mistake. Since then the only home that I have seen that I really wanted badly was one that I found for a client in High Valley. It was about 150k to expensive for me. He lowballed it at first and the bank (it was an reo) didn’t even counter. Curious, after his lowball the bank lowered the list price but still not close to his price. He came back a month later and lowballed again. The bank didn’t counter again. I called the agent and asked what it would take to get the home. He conveyed it to me, I told my client and he got the home. He didn’t get it at his price, paid about 5% more then he wanted but he loves it and it is a unique custom home on a few acres up there with fantastic views. Could he have gotten it for a lower price if he waited? Perhaps. However that was several months ago and he is already refinancing and is very happy. He was considering 4S Ranch, as well as some other high end places in Poway. He also was considering some land in the unincorporated area just outside of Santa Luz as there are some lots there. They saw this home and it was a no brainer for them. Paid a little more for it. Definitely one of my favorite homes and I would take it in a heartbeat if I could afford it.
ParticipantI would say that over the past 4 years there are maybe 3 or 4 homes (that I could afford) and really liked enough to put offers on. The one that probably hurt the most was the one in Scripps in few summers back. My offer was accepted and we were in escrow and we backed out because the home had alot of remediation needed. Looking back that was a huge mistake. Since then the only home that I have seen that I really wanted badly was one that I found for a client in High Valley. It was about 150k to expensive for me. He lowballed it at first and the bank (it was an reo) didn’t even counter. Curious, after his lowball the bank lowered the list price but still not close to his price. He came back a month later and lowballed again. The bank didn’t counter again. I called the agent and asked what it would take to get the home. He conveyed it to me, I told my client and he got the home. He didn’t get it at his price, paid about 5% more then he wanted but he loves it and it is a unique custom home on a few acres up there with fantastic views. Could he have gotten it for a lower price if he waited? Perhaps. However that was several months ago and he is already refinancing and is very happy. He was considering 4S Ranch, as well as some other high end places in Poway. He also was considering some land in the unincorporated area just outside of Santa Luz as there are some lots there. They saw this home and it was a no brainer for them. Paid a little more for it. Definitely one of my favorite homes and I would take it in a heartbeat if I could afford it.
ParticipantI would say that over the past 4 years there are maybe 3 or 4 homes (that I could afford) and really liked enough to put offers on. The one that probably hurt the most was the one in Scripps in few summers back. My offer was accepted and we were in escrow and we backed out because the home had alot of remediation needed. Looking back that was a huge mistake. Since then the only home that I have seen that I really wanted badly was one that I found for a client in High Valley. It was about 150k to expensive for me. He lowballed it at first and the bank (it was an reo) didn’t even counter. Curious, after his lowball the bank lowered the list price but still not close to his price. He came back a month later and lowballed again. The bank didn’t counter again. I called the agent and asked what it would take to get the home. He conveyed it to me, I told my client and he got the home. He didn’t get it at his price, paid about 5% more then he wanted but he loves it and it is a unique custom home on a few acres up there with fantastic views. Could he have gotten it for a lower price if he waited? Perhaps. However that was several months ago and he is already refinancing and is very happy. He was considering 4S Ranch, as well as some other high end places in Poway. He also was considering some land in the unincorporated area just outside of Santa Luz as there are some lots there. They saw this home and it was a no brainer for them. Paid a little more for it. Definitely one of my favorite homes and I would take it in a heartbeat if I could afford it.
Participantheheheh… it did..
Unfortunately though the rationale about there being a limited buyer pool, is something that I kind of laugh at. Years ago this business has taught me that that is definitely not the case. Regulars who post here who are engineers, or other professionals simply do not see the variety of people that are looking for homes. You associate with your peers, friends and coworkers and that by no means represents even a fraction of people who are looking for newer homes in good schools in San Diego. So it is very easy to post and say yes there are only so many buyers and they will all be used up. Variation is sales numbers is generally not due to lack of buyers but moreover buyer psychology. Do you really think that when sales were down in 2008 all the buyers just dried up? Of course not but the psychology was panic. So many buyers held off while some saw the opportunity and grabbed it.
It takes a heck of alot of nads to buy when there is a panic mentality. Certainly those who bought at the end of 2008 had the insight to believe more risk was washed away then there was ahead of them. They realized it was not a bottom but was sufficient enough.
So I definitely think the thoughts about a limited number of buyers is not really applicable to this type of housing nor is it important as there will always be buyers. What is important is the psychology which will be displayed in sales numbers.
Participantheheheh… it did..
Unfortunately though the rationale about there being a limited buyer pool, is something that I kind of laugh at. Years ago this business has taught me that that is definitely not the case. Regulars who post here who are engineers, or other professionals simply do not see the variety of people that are looking for homes. You associate with your peers, friends and coworkers and that by no means represents even a fraction of people who are looking for newer homes in good schools in San Diego. So it is very easy to post and say yes there are only so many buyers and they will all be used up. Variation is sales numbers is generally not due to lack of buyers but moreover buyer psychology. Do you really think that when sales were down in 2008 all the buyers just dried up? Of course not but the psychology was panic. So many buyers held off while some saw the opportunity and grabbed it.
It takes a heck of alot of nads to buy when there is a panic mentality. Certainly those who bought at the end of 2008 had the insight to believe more risk was washed away then there was ahead of them. They realized it was not a bottom but was sufficient enough.
So I definitely think the thoughts about a limited number of buyers is not really applicable to this type of housing nor is it important as there will always be buyers. What is important is the psychology which will be displayed in sales numbers.
Participantheheheh… it did..
Unfortunately though the rationale about there being a limited buyer pool, is something that I kind of laugh at. Years ago this business has taught me that that is definitely not the case. Regulars who post here who are engineers, or other professionals simply do not see the variety of people that are looking for homes. You associate with your peers, friends and coworkers and that by no means represents even a fraction of people who are looking for newer homes in good schools in San Diego. So it is very easy to post and say yes there are only so many buyers and they will all be used up. Variation is sales numbers is generally not due to lack of buyers but moreover buyer psychology. Do you really think that when sales were down in 2008 all the buyers just dried up? Of course not but the psychology was panic. So many buyers held off while some saw the opportunity and grabbed it.
It takes a heck of alot of nads to buy when there is a panic mentality. Certainly those who bought at the end of 2008 had the insight to believe more risk was washed away then there was ahead of them. They realized it was not a bottom but was sufficient enough.
So I definitely think the thoughts about a limited number of buyers is not really applicable to this type of housing nor is it important as there will always be buyers. What is important is the psychology which will be displayed in sales numbers.
Participantheheheh… it did..
Unfortunately though the rationale about there being a limited buyer pool, is something that I kind of laugh at. Years ago this business has taught me that that is definitely not the case. Regulars who post here who are engineers, or other professionals simply do not see the variety of people that are looking for homes. You associate with your peers, friends and coworkers and that by no means represents even a fraction of people who are looking for newer homes in good schools in San Diego. So it is very easy to post and say yes there are only so many buyers and they will all be used up. Variation is sales numbers is generally not due to lack of buyers but moreover buyer psychology. Do you really think that when sales were down in 2008 all the buyers just dried up? Of course not but the psychology was panic. So many buyers held off while some saw the opportunity and grabbed it.
It takes a heck of alot of nads to buy when there is a panic mentality. Certainly those who bought at the end of 2008 had the insight to believe more risk was washed away then there was ahead of them. They realized it was not a bottom but was sufficient enough.
So I definitely think the thoughts about a limited number of buyers is not really applicable to this type of housing nor is it important as there will always be buyers. What is important is the psychology which will be displayed in sales numbers.
Participantheheheh… it did..
Unfortunately though the rationale about there being a limited buyer pool, is something that I kind of laugh at. Years ago this business has taught me that that is definitely not the case. Regulars who post here who are engineers, or other professionals simply do not see the variety of people that are looking for homes. You associate with your peers, friends and coworkers and that by no means represents even a fraction of people who are looking for newer homes in good schools in San Diego. So it is very easy to post and say yes there are only so many buyers and they will all be used up. Variation is sales numbers is generally not due to lack of buyers but moreover buyer psychology. Do you really think that when sales were down in 2008 all the buyers just dried up? Of course not but the psychology was panic. So many buyers held off while some saw the opportunity and grabbed it.
It takes a heck of alot of nads to buy when there is a panic mentality. Certainly those who bought at the end of 2008 had the insight to believe more risk was washed away then there was ahead of them. They realized it was not a bottom but was sufficient enough.
So I definitely think the thoughts about a limited number of buyers is not really applicable to this type of housing nor is it important as there will always be buyers. What is important is the psychology which will be displayed in sales numbers.
ParticipantI would agree there is not.
Unfortunately there is not a bottomless pit of newer homes in desireable areas of San Diego either.
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Also per my earlier posts about SB, I have not ever met anyone who lives there who does not really like it. Some people who bought there late in 08 and early in 09 got smoking deals as well.
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