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SD Realtor
ParticipantI believe that the larger a system/market is, the harder it becomes to have a secular change that is defined by a single direction. Translation, things do not go straight down or straight up. We are not going to have a system collapse all at once. Just like anything else, lower lows and lower highs. Our currency for instance just doesn’t nose dive all at once. It becomes more worthless in fits and starts, over a period of many years. I also believe that for a period of time, the worse things get that we will be told the better they are.
If you believe a system that operates with a govt in severe debt that cannot help but spend more then it has, then is consistently forced to service its debt by selling that debt to other countries, and now services debt by printing its own money and buying its own securities, and it has also provided money to other countries, and has municipalities and states within it that are essentially insolvent, and buys the majority of goods from those same countries that are it’s creditors and has a shriveled manufacturing base, and has the majority of it’s large companies manufacture and produce overseas… well if you think that “this” system is A-OK because of increased consumer spending, and/or less Craigslist postings…. well I guess we have quite differing views.
Those who feel we can simply press a reset button and default on our debt are as ostrich like as anyone else. Follow the trail… if we do default on our debt then what? Who will be our creditor? How can our govt continue to provide more services, entitlements, even universal healthcare, when nobody will credit us? Any ideas? Who will pay to build the superdeeduper high tech railroads that will save our economy?
Yes I hear the crickets chirping…
The answer is nobody. We will have to bite the bullet and live within our means.
This doesn’t mean that everyone will be broke. This doesn’t mean lots and lots of engineers, attorneys, biotech guys, service workers, and DINK families in San Diego will not be buying in Carmel Valley and Encinitas. However it does mean there will be fairly major changes that are most probably defined by much higher taxes at both state and federal levels and lower standards of services by those same govt entities.
Doesn’t seem that hard to figure out and it isn’t gonna happen tomorrow or the next day. Yet to think we will simply push our way out via revenue increases or some other entity coming to our rescue please tell me who or what will do that.
ParticipantI believe that the larger a system/market is, the harder it becomes to have a secular change that is defined by a single direction. Translation, things do not go straight down or straight up. We are not going to have a system collapse all at once. Just like anything else, lower lows and lower highs. Our currency for instance just doesn’t nose dive all at once. It becomes more worthless in fits and starts, over a period of many years. I also believe that for a period of time, the worse things get that we will be told the better they are.
If you believe a system that operates with a govt in severe debt that cannot help but spend more then it has, then is consistently forced to service its debt by selling that debt to other countries, and now services debt by printing its own money and buying its own securities, and it has also provided money to other countries, and has municipalities and states within it that are essentially insolvent, and buys the majority of goods from those same countries that are it’s creditors and has a shriveled manufacturing base, and has the majority of it’s large companies manufacture and produce overseas… well if you think that “this” system is A-OK because of increased consumer spending, and/or less Craigslist postings…. well I guess we have quite differing views.
Those who feel we can simply press a reset button and default on our debt are as ostrich like as anyone else. Follow the trail… if we do default on our debt then what? Who will be our creditor? How can our govt continue to provide more services, entitlements, even universal healthcare, when nobody will credit us? Any ideas? Who will pay to build the superdeeduper high tech railroads that will save our economy?
Yes I hear the crickets chirping…
The answer is nobody. We will have to bite the bullet and live within our means.
This doesn’t mean that everyone will be broke. This doesn’t mean lots and lots of engineers, attorneys, biotech guys, service workers, and DINK families in San Diego will not be buying in Carmel Valley and Encinitas. However it does mean there will be fairly major changes that are most probably defined by much higher taxes at both state and federal levels and lower standards of services by those same govt entities.
Doesn’t seem that hard to figure out and it isn’t gonna happen tomorrow or the next day. Yet to think we will simply push our way out via revenue increases or some other entity coming to our rescue please tell me who or what will do that.
ParticipantI believe that the larger a system/market is, the harder it becomes to have a secular change that is defined by a single direction. Translation, things do not go straight down or straight up. We are not going to have a system collapse all at once. Just like anything else, lower lows and lower highs. Our currency for instance just doesn’t nose dive all at once. It becomes more worthless in fits and starts, over a period of many years. I also believe that for a period of time, the worse things get that we will be told the better they are.
If you believe a system that operates with a govt in severe debt that cannot help but spend more then it has, then is consistently forced to service its debt by selling that debt to other countries, and now services debt by printing its own money and buying its own securities, and it has also provided money to other countries, and has municipalities and states within it that are essentially insolvent, and buys the majority of goods from those same countries that are it’s creditors and has a shriveled manufacturing base, and has the majority of it’s large companies manufacture and produce overseas… well if you think that “this” system is A-OK because of increased consumer spending, and/or less Craigslist postings…. well I guess we have quite differing views.
Those who feel we can simply press a reset button and default on our debt are as ostrich like as anyone else. Follow the trail… if we do default on our debt then what? Who will be our creditor? How can our govt continue to provide more services, entitlements, even universal healthcare, when nobody will credit us? Any ideas? Who will pay to build the superdeeduper high tech railroads that will save our economy?
Yes I hear the crickets chirping…
The answer is nobody. We will have to bite the bullet and live within our means.
This doesn’t mean that everyone will be broke. This doesn’t mean lots and lots of engineers, attorneys, biotech guys, service workers, and DINK families in San Diego will not be buying in Carmel Valley and Encinitas. However it does mean there will be fairly major changes that are most probably defined by much higher taxes at both state and federal levels and lower standards of services by those same govt entities.
Doesn’t seem that hard to figure out and it isn’t gonna happen tomorrow or the next day. Yet to think we will simply push our way out via revenue increases or some other entity coming to our rescue please tell me who or what will do that.
ParticipantI cannot agree that increased consumer spending is an indicator that the systemic problems are healed. The fundamental problems that plague our country and Europe are not going to go away simply because we greased the skids with trillions of dollars and have seen increased spending and such.
The fact is that there are many many many people who are flush with worthless dollars right now. My investment group has completely stopped flipping because of the swarms of people involved. Margins are miniscule and our goal was to be tactical and it worked out well. So yes these people are spending. So are the engineers working at Qualcomm and Broadcom, and the biotech and attornies and many others. Of course anyone employed by the govt is doing well also.
However looking at the fundamental issues I cannot share the same optimism that some have.I look at our employme nt numbers, I don’t share that optimism. I don’t even trust the numbers we are told. Nor do I seem to see a big burst of employment happening or about to happen. Basic things like food and energy costs are going up in price. Any parent will tell you that.
It is entirely feasible to me that housing prices in San Diego can and will remain high. That is the way it has been, and the the way it will always be. However as the dominoes fall in Europe I believe things will deteriorate. You cannot monetize debt. You cannot have have substantial portions of the GDP used to simply cover the interest on your debt. You cannot have housing deflation while the price of energy, commodities, and food and move steadily higher. Great I can get a nice flatscreen and a great cell phone plan for cheap but a gallon of milk and a carton of eggs and some butter costs 10 bucks today. Fantastic. You look at the current finances of California (16% of our national gdp) and New York and they are in shambles. Yet there is no plan in place to reform these states. They simply keep bumbling along and we all know an inevitable bailout of these and other states will be necessary.
I am not a fan of the current administration but I do agree that these problems we see have anything to do with either party.
It is a very simple fact that in order to deal with all of this we very much need to take some damn painful medicine at the state and federal level. Higher taxes and reduced spending HAVE to happen. Severe restriction of the money supply needs to happen. Higher rates are needed. Harsh stuff now but way way harsher stuff later. My big concern is that it will be later because no party will do what needs to be done, it is political suicide.
CAR you and I agree on what is happening and what has happened. While everyone says the fed and treasury NEEDED to do what they did or else all hell would have broken loose I don’t agree. I agree with you, some help was/is needed. However to see many institutions post record profits in 09 was absolutely laughable. Revelations now coming out that the fed greased many other industries, other banks and other countries is not really news to me. Just more of a sad confirmation of something some of us presumed.
So yes I agree about the sense that something is wrong. I don’t see this severe sky is falling disruption just yet. However I do think it is out there and becoming more probable as we continue to act like an ostrich and stick our heads in the sand.
ParticipantI cannot agree that increased consumer spending is an indicator that the systemic problems are healed. The fundamental problems that plague our country and Europe are not going to go away simply because we greased the skids with trillions of dollars and have seen increased spending and such.
The fact is that there are many many many people who are flush with worthless dollars right now. My investment group has completely stopped flipping because of the swarms of people involved. Margins are miniscule and our goal was to be tactical and it worked out well. So yes these people are spending. So are the engineers working at Qualcomm and Broadcom, and the biotech and attornies and many others. Of course anyone employed by the govt is doing well also.
However looking at the fundamental issues I cannot share the same optimism that some have.I look at our employme nt numbers, I don’t share that optimism. I don’t even trust the numbers we are told. Nor do I seem to see a big burst of employment happening or about to happen. Basic things like food and energy costs are going up in price. Any parent will tell you that.
It is entirely feasible to me that housing prices in San Diego can and will remain high. That is the way it has been, and the the way it will always be. However as the dominoes fall in Europe I believe things will deteriorate. You cannot monetize debt. You cannot have have substantial portions of the GDP used to simply cover the interest on your debt. You cannot have housing deflation while the price of energy, commodities, and food and move steadily higher. Great I can get a nice flatscreen and a great cell phone plan for cheap but a gallon of milk and a carton of eggs and some butter costs 10 bucks today. Fantastic. You look at the current finances of California (16% of our national gdp) and New York and they are in shambles. Yet there is no plan in place to reform these states. They simply keep bumbling along and we all know an inevitable bailout of these and other states will be necessary.
I am not a fan of the current administration but I do agree that these problems we see have anything to do with either party.
It is a very simple fact that in order to deal with all of this we very much need to take some damn painful medicine at the state and federal level. Higher taxes and reduced spending HAVE to happen. Severe restriction of the money supply needs to happen. Higher rates are needed. Harsh stuff now but way way harsher stuff later. My big concern is that it will be later because no party will do what needs to be done, it is political suicide.
CAR you and I agree on what is happening and what has happened. While everyone says the fed and treasury NEEDED to do what they did or else all hell would have broken loose I don’t agree. I agree with you, some help was/is needed. However to see many institutions post record profits in 09 was absolutely laughable. Revelations now coming out that the fed greased many other industries, other banks and other countries is not really news to me. Just more of a sad confirmation of something some of us presumed.
So yes I agree about the sense that something is wrong. I don’t see this severe sky is falling disruption just yet. However I do think it is out there and becoming more probable as we continue to act like an ostrich and stick our heads in the sand.
ParticipantI cannot agree that increased consumer spending is an indicator that the systemic problems are healed. The fundamental problems that plague our country and Europe are not going to go away simply because we greased the skids with trillions of dollars and have seen increased spending and such.
The fact is that there are many many many people who are flush with worthless dollars right now. My investment group has completely stopped flipping because of the swarms of people involved. Margins are miniscule and our goal was to be tactical and it worked out well. So yes these people are spending. So are the engineers working at Qualcomm and Broadcom, and the biotech and attornies and many others. Of course anyone employed by the govt is doing well also.
However looking at the fundamental issues I cannot share the same optimism that some have.I look at our employme nt numbers, I don’t share that optimism. I don’t even trust the numbers we are told. Nor do I seem to see a big burst of employment happening or about to happen. Basic things like food and energy costs are going up in price. Any parent will tell you that.
It is entirely feasible to me that housing prices in San Diego can and will remain high. That is the way it has been, and the the way it will always be. However as the dominoes fall in Europe I believe things will deteriorate. You cannot monetize debt. You cannot have have substantial portions of the GDP used to simply cover the interest on your debt. You cannot have housing deflation while the price of energy, commodities, and food and move steadily higher. Great I can get a nice flatscreen and a great cell phone plan for cheap but a gallon of milk and a carton of eggs and some butter costs 10 bucks today. Fantastic. You look at the current finances of California (16% of our national gdp) and New York and they are in shambles. Yet there is no plan in place to reform these states. They simply keep bumbling along and we all know an inevitable bailout of these and other states will be necessary.
I am not a fan of the current administration but I do agree that these problems we see have anything to do with either party.
It is a very simple fact that in order to deal with all of this we very much need to take some damn painful medicine at the state and federal level. Higher taxes and reduced spending HAVE to happen. Severe restriction of the money supply needs to happen. Higher rates are needed. Harsh stuff now but way way harsher stuff later. My big concern is that it will be later because no party will do what needs to be done, it is political suicide.
CAR you and I agree on what is happening and what has happened. While everyone says the fed and treasury NEEDED to do what they did or else all hell would have broken loose I don’t agree. I agree with you, some help was/is needed. However to see many institutions post record profits in 09 was absolutely laughable. Revelations now coming out that the fed greased many other industries, other banks and other countries is not really news to me. Just more of a sad confirmation of something some of us presumed.
So yes I agree about the sense that something is wrong. I don’t see this severe sky is falling disruption just yet. However I do think it is out there and becoming more probable as we continue to act like an ostrich and stick our heads in the sand.
ParticipantI cannot agree that increased consumer spending is an indicator that the systemic problems are healed. The fundamental problems that plague our country and Europe are not going to go away simply because we greased the skids with trillions of dollars and have seen increased spending and such.
The fact is that there are many many many people who are flush with worthless dollars right now. My investment group has completely stopped flipping because of the swarms of people involved. Margins are miniscule and our goal was to be tactical and it worked out well. So yes these people are spending. So are the engineers working at Qualcomm and Broadcom, and the biotech and attornies and many others. Of course anyone employed by the govt is doing well also.
However looking at the fundamental issues I cannot share the same optimism that some have.I look at our employme nt numbers, I don’t share that optimism. I don’t even trust the numbers we are told. Nor do I seem to see a big burst of employment happening or about to happen. Basic things like food and energy costs are going up in price. Any parent will tell you that.
It is entirely feasible to me that housing prices in San Diego can and will remain high. That is the way it has been, and the the way it will always be. However as the dominoes fall in Europe I believe things will deteriorate. You cannot monetize debt. You cannot have have substantial portions of the GDP used to simply cover the interest on your debt. You cannot have housing deflation while the price of energy, commodities, and food and move steadily higher. Great I can get a nice flatscreen and a great cell phone plan for cheap but a gallon of milk and a carton of eggs and some butter costs 10 bucks today. Fantastic. You look at the current finances of California (16% of our national gdp) and New York and they are in shambles. Yet there is no plan in place to reform these states. They simply keep bumbling along and we all know an inevitable bailout of these and other states will be necessary.
I am not a fan of the current administration but I do agree that these problems we see have anything to do with either party.
It is a very simple fact that in order to deal with all of this we very much need to take some damn painful medicine at the state and federal level. Higher taxes and reduced spending HAVE to happen. Severe restriction of the money supply needs to happen. Higher rates are needed. Harsh stuff now but way way harsher stuff later. My big concern is that it will be later because no party will do what needs to be done, it is political suicide.
CAR you and I agree on what is happening and what has happened. While everyone says the fed and treasury NEEDED to do what they did or else all hell would have broken loose I don’t agree. I agree with you, some help was/is needed. However to see many institutions post record profits in 09 was absolutely laughable. Revelations now coming out that the fed greased many other industries, other banks and other countries is not really news to me. Just more of a sad confirmation of something some of us presumed.
So yes I agree about the sense that something is wrong. I don’t see this severe sky is falling disruption just yet. However I do think it is out there and becoming more probable as we continue to act like an ostrich and stick our heads in the sand.
ParticipantI cannot agree that increased consumer spending is an indicator that the systemic problems are healed. The fundamental problems that plague our country and Europe are not going to go away simply because we greased the skids with trillions of dollars and have seen increased spending and such.
The fact is that there are many many many people who are flush with worthless dollars right now. My investment group has completely stopped flipping because of the swarms of people involved. Margins are miniscule and our goal was to be tactical and it worked out well. So yes these people are spending. So are the engineers working at Qualcomm and Broadcom, and the biotech and attornies and many others. Of course anyone employed by the govt is doing well also.
However looking at the fundamental issues I cannot share the same optimism that some have.I look at our employme nt numbers, I don’t share that optimism. I don’t even trust the numbers we are told. Nor do I seem to see a big burst of employment happening or about to happen. Basic things like food and energy costs are going up in price. Any parent will tell you that.
It is entirely feasible to me that housing prices in San Diego can and will remain high. That is the way it has been, and the the way it will always be. However as the dominoes fall in Europe I believe things will deteriorate. You cannot monetize debt. You cannot have have substantial portions of the GDP used to simply cover the interest on your debt. You cannot have housing deflation while the price of energy, commodities, and food and move steadily higher. Great I can get a nice flatscreen and a great cell phone plan for cheap but a gallon of milk and a carton of eggs and some butter costs 10 bucks today. Fantastic. You look at the current finances of California (16% of our national gdp) and New York and they are in shambles. Yet there is no plan in place to reform these states. They simply keep bumbling along and we all know an inevitable bailout of these and other states will be necessary.
I am not a fan of the current administration but I do agree that these problems we see have anything to do with either party.
It is a very simple fact that in order to deal with all of this we very much need to take some damn painful medicine at the state and federal level. Higher taxes and reduced spending HAVE to happen. Severe restriction of the money supply needs to happen. Higher rates are needed. Harsh stuff now but way way harsher stuff later. My big concern is that it will be later because no party will do what needs to be done, it is political suicide.
CAR you and I agree on what is happening and what has happened. While everyone says the fed and treasury NEEDED to do what they did or else all hell would have broken loose I don’t agree. I agree with you, some help was/is needed. However to see many institutions post record profits in 09 was absolutely laughable. Revelations now coming out that the fed greased many other industries, other banks and other countries is not really news to me. Just more of a sad confirmation of something some of us presumed.
So yes I agree about the sense that something is wrong. I don’t see this severe sky is falling disruption just yet. However I do think it is out there and becoming more probable as we continue to act like an ostrich and stick our heads in the sand.
ParticipantSeems pretty obvious to me that the so called recovery we started was simply the response to stimulus. Perhaps enduring the hard times of a recession/depression and not burrowing further and further into debt may be the bad medicine that will lead to a true recovery rather then simply building up more debt. Pretty much the US and Europe are essentially insolvent. Stimulating insolvent nations with worthless currency doesn’t really solve problems as we are learning.
ParticipantSeems pretty obvious to me that the so called recovery we started was simply the response to stimulus. Perhaps enduring the hard times of a recession/depression and not burrowing further and further into debt may be the bad medicine that will lead to a true recovery rather then simply building up more debt. Pretty much the US and Europe are essentially insolvent. Stimulating insolvent nations with worthless currency doesn’t really solve problems as we are learning.
ParticipantSeems pretty obvious to me that the so called recovery we started was simply the response to stimulus. Perhaps enduring the hard times of a recession/depression and not burrowing further and further into debt may be the bad medicine that will lead to a true recovery rather then simply building up more debt. Pretty much the US and Europe are essentially insolvent. Stimulating insolvent nations with worthless currency doesn’t really solve problems as we are learning.
ParticipantSeems pretty obvious to me that the so called recovery we started was simply the response to stimulus. Perhaps enduring the hard times of a recession/depression and not burrowing further and further into debt may be the bad medicine that will lead to a true recovery rather then simply building up more debt. Pretty much the US and Europe are essentially insolvent. Stimulating insolvent nations with worthless currency doesn’t really solve problems as we are learning.
ParticipantSeems pretty obvious to me that the so called recovery we started was simply the response to stimulus. Perhaps enduring the hard times of a recession/depression and not burrowing further and further into debt may be the bad medicine that will lead to a true recovery rather then simply building up more debt. Pretty much the US and Europe are essentially insolvent. Stimulating insolvent nations with worthless currency doesn’t really solve problems as we are learning.
November 30, 2010 at 2:37 PM in reply to: WSJ: Second-Mortgage Standoffs Stand in Way of Short Sales #634244ParticipantI think it is a bit of an oversimplification of the assignment of blame. Obviously every case is different and while most would assume a delinquent homeowner stops paying both lenders at the same time, it is not a given.
I think what is missed in your analysis bearish is the importance of what has or has not already been written off. That is, if the second already has written the loan off then what do they care if the home forecloses or not. Lets say there are 20 portfolios written off. In my opinion this has much more bearing on the attitude of the second. Furthermore what you did not mention was the payoff from the first. Take a 400k payoff. Say the first was a 550k loan and the second was 90k. Now the home sells for 430k and after closing there is 400k left. So the first offers 3k to the second and keeps the 397k. So why wouldn’t the second try to get more? Now if they use this strategy on 20 portfolios will they get more by playing hardball rather then rolling over for 3k on each one? Obviously there stats show that the answer is yes.
Anyways yes the total blame does fall on the first but it doesn’t matter if the first forecloses quick or not, the second still needs to release the lien. Perhaps if banks were not all bloated with bailout money seconds would not be playing so much hardball eh?
There is plenty of blame to go around for all parties. I had a short sale once upon a time and the first was Wells Fargo Bank and the second was Wells Home Equity and the whole thing almost crashed and burned because Wells Bank would not give Wells Home Equity more then 3k. It is a joke but a very sad joke.
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