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SD Realtor
ParticipantStop making so much sense CAR. I am drinking the same tea as well.
I guess I don’t quite see the end of civilization but I do see high rates and a lower quality of life. I don’t see us waving a magic wand and all of this just going away in a few years. Eugene and I debated that in another thread and he felt that our situation is not as dire as Japans was during their crisis. I am not as confident as I watch oil hover near the century mark, gold pushing 1400 smackers an ounce, and commodity prices rising all over the place. Clearly the world order is changing and none of these more large scale pieces of the puzzle were in place when Japan had their crisis. Oh and lets not forget those nice little entitlements for which we have not discussed, or the fact that the fed has been monotizing debt. So when rates do go up, anyone wanna guess what happens to the feds portfolio? Lest we also foget the status of most of the state and city budgets within our country?
ParticipantStop making so much sense CAR. I am drinking the same tea as well.
I guess I don’t quite see the end of civilization but I do see high rates and a lower quality of life. I don’t see us waving a magic wand and all of this just going away in a few years. Eugene and I debated that in another thread and he felt that our situation is not as dire as Japans was during their crisis. I am not as confident as I watch oil hover near the century mark, gold pushing 1400 smackers an ounce, and commodity prices rising all over the place. Clearly the world order is changing and none of these more large scale pieces of the puzzle were in place when Japan had their crisis. Oh and lets not forget those nice little entitlements for which we have not discussed, or the fact that the fed has been monotizing debt. So when rates do go up, anyone wanna guess what happens to the feds portfolio? Lest we also foget the status of most of the state and city budgets within our country?
ParticipantStop making so much sense CAR. I am drinking the same tea as well.
I guess I don’t quite see the end of civilization but I do see high rates and a lower quality of life. I don’t see us waving a magic wand and all of this just going away in a few years. Eugene and I debated that in another thread and he felt that our situation is not as dire as Japans was during their crisis. I am not as confident as I watch oil hover near the century mark, gold pushing 1400 smackers an ounce, and commodity prices rising all over the place. Clearly the world order is changing and none of these more large scale pieces of the puzzle were in place when Japan had their crisis. Oh and lets not forget those nice little entitlements for which we have not discussed, or the fact that the fed has been monotizing debt. So when rates do go up, anyone wanna guess what happens to the feds portfolio? Lest we also foget the status of most of the state and city budgets within our country?
ParticipantCould be Scarlett. You have two things going for ya right now, first off is that there will be more foreclosures. Second off is that the rates are slowly going up. So is the cost of gas. So is the cost of food. Some people believe everything will be okey dokey and things will take care of themselves. I am not one of them however I do not see things changing in as radical a manner as many of the gloom and doomers.
The biggest problem you face is competition plain and simple. I cannot tell you how many other people want to live in PQ and want a home in the price range and size that you are looking for. Prices did drop down and some good buys were there in 2008 but I pulled a quick stat for closings of q4 of 08 and q1 of 09…
10/15/08 – 1/15/09
under 1500 7 419k 434k 70
1501 – 1900 12 505k 533k 57
1901 – 2300 14 557k 571k 481/15/09 – 4/15/09
under 1500 6 403k 404k 76
1501 – 1900 15 497k 531k 52
1901 – 2300 16 566k 586k 43The problem with the talking heads is that they throw numbers around that are meaningless wiht regards to regional demand. As you know the variability of SD real estate is staggering and PQ is destination for MANY MANY young families for a variety of reasons, mainly being a price point that is barely/almost within reach compared to other I15 corridor locations.
Soooo… I am not sure if you will see a 10% drop in a year IFF rates stay where they are at. Now… if we see rates about 6 or 6.5% then yes there is a good chance you will see a nice sized drop in PQ AFTER rates stay at that level a few months.
ParticipantCould be Scarlett. You have two things going for ya right now, first off is that there will be more foreclosures. Second off is that the rates are slowly going up. So is the cost of gas. So is the cost of food. Some people believe everything will be okey dokey and things will take care of themselves. I am not one of them however I do not see things changing in as radical a manner as many of the gloom and doomers.
The biggest problem you face is competition plain and simple. I cannot tell you how many other people want to live in PQ and want a home in the price range and size that you are looking for. Prices did drop down and some good buys were there in 2008 but I pulled a quick stat for closings of q4 of 08 and q1 of 09…
10/15/08 – 1/15/09
under 1500 7 419k 434k 70
1501 – 1900 12 505k 533k 57
1901 – 2300 14 557k 571k 481/15/09 – 4/15/09
under 1500 6 403k 404k 76
1501 – 1900 15 497k 531k 52
1901 – 2300 16 566k 586k 43The problem with the talking heads is that they throw numbers around that are meaningless wiht regards to regional demand. As you know the variability of SD real estate is staggering and PQ is destination for MANY MANY young families for a variety of reasons, mainly being a price point that is barely/almost within reach compared to other I15 corridor locations.
Soooo… I am not sure if you will see a 10% drop in a year IFF rates stay where they are at. Now… if we see rates about 6 or 6.5% then yes there is a good chance you will see a nice sized drop in PQ AFTER rates stay at that level a few months.
ParticipantCould be Scarlett. You have two things going for ya right now, first off is that there will be more foreclosures. Second off is that the rates are slowly going up. So is the cost of gas. So is the cost of food. Some people believe everything will be okey dokey and things will take care of themselves. I am not one of them however I do not see things changing in as radical a manner as many of the gloom and doomers.
The biggest problem you face is competition plain and simple. I cannot tell you how many other people want to live in PQ and want a home in the price range and size that you are looking for. Prices did drop down and some good buys were there in 2008 but I pulled a quick stat for closings of q4 of 08 and q1 of 09…
10/15/08 – 1/15/09
under 1500 7 419k 434k 70
1501 – 1900 12 505k 533k 57
1901 – 2300 14 557k 571k 481/15/09 – 4/15/09
under 1500 6 403k 404k 76
1501 – 1900 15 497k 531k 52
1901 – 2300 16 566k 586k 43The problem with the talking heads is that they throw numbers around that are meaningless wiht regards to regional demand. As you know the variability of SD real estate is staggering and PQ is destination for MANY MANY young families for a variety of reasons, mainly being a price point that is barely/almost within reach compared to other I15 corridor locations.
Soooo… I am not sure if you will see a 10% drop in a year IFF rates stay where they are at. Now… if we see rates about 6 or 6.5% then yes there is a good chance you will see a nice sized drop in PQ AFTER rates stay at that level a few months.
ParticipantCould be Scarlett. You have two things going for ya right now, first off is that there will be more foreclosures. Second off is that the rates are slowly going up. So is the cost of gas. So is the cost of food. Some people believe everything will be okey dokey and things will take care of themselves. I am not one of them however I do not see things changing in as radical a manner as many of the gloom and doomers.
The biggest problem you face is competition plain and simple. I cannot tell you how many other people want to live in PQ and want a home in the price range and size that you are looking for. Prices did drop down and some good buys were there in 2008 but I pulled a quick stat for closings of q4 of 08 and q1 of 09…
10/15/08 – 1/15/09
under 1500 7 419k 434k 70
1501 – 1900 12 505k 533k 57
1901 – 2300 14 557k 571k 481/15/09 – 4/15/09
under 1500 6 403k 404k 76
1501 – 1900 15 497k 531k 52
1901 – 2300 16 566k 586k 43The problem with the talking heads is that they throw numbers around that are meaningless wiht regards to regional demand. As you know the variability of SD real estate is staggering and PQ is destination for MANY MANY young families for a variety of reasons, mainly being a price point that is barely/almost within reach compared to other I15 corridor locations.
Soooo… I am not sure if you will see a 10% drop in a year IFF rates stay where they are at. Now… if we see rates about 6 or 6.5% then yes there is a good chance you will see a nice sized drop in PQ AFTER rates stay at that level a few months.
ParticipantCould be Scarlett. You have two things going for ya right now, first off is that there will be more foreclosures. Second off is that the rates are slowly going up. So is the cost of gas. So is the cost of food. Some people believe everything will be okey dokey and things will take care of themselves. I am not one of them however I do not see things changing in as radical a manner as many of the gloom and doomers.
The biggest problem you face is competition plain and simple. I cannot tell you how many other people want to live in PQ and want a home in the price range and size that you are looking for. Prices did drop down and some good buys were there in 2008 but I pulled a quick stat for closings of q4 of 08 and q1 of 09…
10/15/08 – 1/15/09
under 1500 7 419k 434k 70
1501 – 1900 12 505k 533k 57
1901 – 2300 14 557k 571k 481/15/09 – 4/15/09
under 1500 6 403k 404k 76
1501 – 1900 15 497k 531k 52
1901 – 2300 16 566k 586k 43The problem with the talking heads is that they throw numbers around that are meaningless wiht regards to regional demand. As you know the variability of SD real estate is staggering and PQ is destination for MANY MANY young families for a variety of reasons, mainly being a price point that is barely/almost within reach compared to other I15 corridor locations.
Soooo… I am not sure if you will see a 10% drop in a year IFF rates stay where they are at. Now… if we see rates about 6 or 6.5% then yes there is a good chance you will see a nice sized drop in PQ AFTER rates stay at that level a few months.
Participantsure newbee…
sp is sold price
lp is list price
mt is market time in days.Note however that list price is somewhat subjective. It is not the original list price, it is what the home was listed at the time it went into escrow. Also many homes have a price range and so that lp which is list price is (i believe) the high end of the range if indeed a range was used.
At any rate it does not matter to much other then to note that the trend seems to be coming down. Unfortunately we have a way to go before we reach the lows we were seeing at the end of 2008. With that said even at the end of 2008, the lows were still not spectacular by any means.
Participantsure newbee…
sp is sold price
lp is list price
mt is market time in days.Note however that list price is somewhat subjective. It is not the original list price, it is what the home was listed at the time it went into escrow. Also many homes have a price range and so that lp which is list price is (i believe) the high end of the range if indeed a range was used.
At any rate it does not matter to much other then to note that the trend seems to be coming down. Unfortunately we have a way to go before we reach the lows we were seeing at the end of 2008. With that said even at the end of 2008, the lows were still not spectacular by any means.
Participantsure newbee…
sp is sold price
lp is list price
mt is market time in days.Note however that list price is somewhat subjective. It is not the original list price, it is what the home was listed at the time it went into escrow. Also many homes have a price range and so that lp which is list price is (i believe) the high end of the range if indeed a range was used.
At any rate it does not matter to much other then to note that the trend seems to be coming down. Unfortunately we have a way to go before we reach the lows we were seeing at the end of 2008. With that said even at the end of 2008, the lows were still not spectacular by any means.
Participantsure newbee…
sp is sold price
lp is list price
mt is market time in days.Note however that list price is somewhat subjective. It is not the original list price, it is what the home was listed at the time it went into escrow. Also many homes have a price range and so that lp which is list price is (i believe) the high end of the range if indeed a range was used.
At any rate it does not matter to much other then to note that the trend seems to be coming down. Unfortunately we have a way to go before we reach the lows we were seeing at the end of 2008. With that said even at the end of 2008, the lows were still not spectacular by any means.
Participantsure newbee…
sp is sold price
lp is list price
mt is market time in days.Note however that list price is somewhat subjective. It is not the original list price, it is what the home was listed at the time it went into escrow. Also many homes have a price range and so that lp which is list price is (i believe) the high end of the range if indeed a range was used.
At any rate it does not matter to much other then to note that the trend seems to be coming down. Unfortunately we have a way to go before we reach the lows we were seeing at the end of 2008. With that said even at the end of 2008, the lows were still not spectacular by any means.
ParticipantYes the competition element is what kills and ultimately what forms support. So I agree lji. In Mira Mesa the poster will have no problem. In PQ they will find them as well but the home will be small.
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