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Those are very good points, BG; thanks.

My reluctance to buy NOW has nothing to do with the shadow inventory. I’d feel more comfortable with some more reserves in addition to the downpayment. So we are weighing the risk of somewhat stretching ourselves now for a few years against the risk of possible significantly higher rates (without much price decline) in the future, when we’d have save more.

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I think we are moving away from the topic which is more general and discussing (shadow) inventory, rates and prices in general…I am not saying how, if at all, it will affect my decision to buy.

I thought I won’t take the bait but…
How do you propose finding out #1 and #2 above? Knock at their doors and ask ’em? One knows that much AFTER living in the neighborhood for a while. (And RENTING in a PARTICULAR Micro neighborhood to road test it for a couple years is often not feasible/practical.).

Not saying it isn’t good to know, but, is it that important? Isn’t a general feeling, and knowing that some co-workers live in the more GENERAL area, enough? I don’t feel like striking conversations with strangers, unless they are parents with kids playing with mine in the park.

If you mean, in general, by hanging out at the parks with kids, or in the local shopping centers, or by driving on the streets at different times…then of course everybody does that.

[Scarlett]

I think we are moving away from the topic which is more general and discussing (shadow) inventory, rates and prices in general…I am not saying how, if at all, it will affect my decision to buy.

I thought I won’t take the bait but…
How do you propose finding out #1 and #2 above? Knock at their doors and ask ’em? One knows that much AFTER living in the neighborhood for a while. (And RENTING in a PARTICULAR Micro neighborhood to road test it for a couple years is often not feasible/practical.).

Not saying it isn’t good to know, but, is it that important? Isn’t a general feeling, and knowing that some co-workers live in the more GENERAL area, enough? I don’t feel like striking conversations with strangers, unless they are parents with kids playing with mine in the park.

If you mean, in general, by hanging out at the parks with kids, or in the local shopping centers, or by driving on the streets at different times…then of course everybody does that.

[Scarlett]

I think we are moving away from the topic which is more general and discussing (shadow) inventory, rates and prices in general…I am not saying how, if at all, it will affect my decision to buy.

I thought I won’t take the bait but…
How do you propose finding out #1 and #2 above? Knock at their doors and ask ’em? One knows that much AFTER living in the neighborhood for a while. (And RENTING in a PARTICULAR Micro neighborhood to road test it for a couple years is often not feasible/practical.).

Not saying it isn’t good to know, but, is it that important? Isn’t a general feeling, and knowing that some co-workers live in the more GENERAL area, enough? I don’t feel like striking conversations with strangers, unless they are parents with kids playing with mine in the park.

If you mean, in general, by hanging out at the parks with kids, or in the local shopping centers, or by driving on the streets at different times…then of course everybody does that.

[Scarlett]

I think we are moving away from the topic which is more general and discussing (shadow) inventory, rates and prices in general…I am not saying how, if at all, it will affect my decision to buy.

I thought I won’t take the bait but…
How do you propose finding out #1 and #2 above? Knock at their doors and ask ’em? One knows that much AFTER living in the neighborhood for a while. (And RENTING in a PARTICULAR Micro neighborhood to road test it for a couple years is often not feasible/practical.).

Not saying it isn’t good to know, but, is it that important? Isn’t a general feeling, and knowing that some co-workers live in the more GENERAL area, enough? I don’t feel like striking conversations with strangers, unless they are parents with kids playing with mine in the park.

If you mean, in general, by hanging out at the parks with kids, or in the local shopping centers, or by driving on the streets at different times…then of course everybody does that.

[Scarlett]

I think we are moving away from the topic which is more general and discussing (shadow) inventory, rates and prices in general…I am not saying how, if at all, it will affect my decision to buy.

I thought I won’t take the bait but…
How do you propose finding out #1 and #2 above? Knock at their doors and ask ’em? One knows that much AFTER living in the neighborhood for a while. (And RENTING in a PARTICULAR Micro neighborhood to road test it for a couple years is often not feasible/practical.).

Not saying it isn’t good to know, but, is it that important? Isn’t a general feeling, and knowing that some co-workers live in the more GENERAL area, enough? I don’t feel like striking conversations with strangers, unless they are parents with kids playing with mine in the park.

If you mean, in general, by hanging out at the parks with kids, or in the local shopping centers, or by driving on the streets at different times…then of course everybody does that.

[Scarlett]

[quote=CA renter]2. If prices drop with rising interest rates, there will be less money from sales of starter homes (already happening, as starter neighborhoods were already decimated by late 2008). So, less money from the move-up market.
[/quote]

That is what IMHO will greatly contribute to the further, significant fall of the housing prices – the decrease of number of qualified first time buyers (with large downpayments) and move-up buyers with rising rates. It will take a while though.

To get more move-up buyers the prices would have stay high and/or rates low. The people that cannot move-up won’t sell, so there will be lower inventory from them (of course, some HAVE to sell). There is also the increased number of people that have owned for a long time and/or downsize/retire who can afford to sell.

To get more first time buyers – prices would have to go down more (most likely driven by higher rates), or rates go down even further… )(or, better paying jobs, more jobs, sure!).

One compromise option is to keep the rates relatively low for a very long time (if they can)…a (lost) decade or so.

[Scarlett]

[quote=CA renter]2. If prices drop with rising interest rates, there will be less money from sales of starter homes (already happening, as starter neighborhoods were already decimated by late 2008). So, less money from the move-up market.
[/quote]

That is what IMHO will greatly contribute to the further, significant fall of the housing prices – the decrease of number of qualified first time buyers (with large downpayments) and move-up buyers with rising rates. It will take a while though.

To get more move-up buyers the prices would have stay high and/or rates low. The people that cannot move-up won’t sell, so there will be lower inventory from them (of course, some HAVE to sell). There is also the increased number of people that have owned for a long time and/or downsize/retire who can afford to sell.

To get more first time buyers – prices would have to go down more (most likely driven by higher rates), or rates go down even further… )(or, better paying jobs, more jobs, sure!).

One compromise option is to keep the rates relatively low for a very long time (if they can)…a (lost) decade or so.

[Scarlett]

[quote=CA renter]2. If prices drop with rising interest rates, there will be less money from sales of starter homes (already happening, as starter neighborhoods were already decimated by late 2008). So, less money from the move-up market.
[/quote]

That is what IMHO will greatly contribute to the further, significant fall of the housing prices – the decrease of number of qualified first time buyers (with large downpayments) and move-up buyers with rising rates. It will take a while though.

To get more move-up buyers the prices would have stay high and/or rates low. The people that cannot move-up won’t sell, so there will be lower inventory from them (of course, some HAVE to sell). There is also the increased number of people that have owned for a long time and/or downsize/retire who can afford to sell.

To get more first time buyers – prices would have to go down more (most likely driven by higher rates), or rates go down even further… )(or, better paying jobs, more jobs, sure!).

One compromise option is to keep the rates relatively low for a very long time (if they can)…a (lost) decade or so.

[Scarlett]

[quote=CA renter]2. If prices drop with rising interest rates, there will be less money from sales of starter homes (already happening, as starter neighborhoods were already decimated by late 2008). So, less money from the move-up market.
[/quote]

That is what IMHO will greatly contribute to the further, significant fall of the housing prices – the decrease of number of qualified first time buyers (with large downpayments) and move-up buyers with rising rates. It will take a while though.

To get more move-up buyers the prices would have stay high and/or rates low. The people that cannot move-up won’t sell, so there will be lower inventory from them (of course, some HAVE to sell). There is also the increased number of people that have owned for a long time and/or downsize/retire who can afford to sell.

To get more first time buyers – prices would have to go down more (most likely driven by higher rates), or rates go down even further… )(or, better paying jobs, more jobs, sure!).

One compromise option is to keep the rates relatively low for a very long time (if they can)…a (lost) decade or so.

[Author]

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