[Scarlett]

[quote=5yearwaiter]Can any one predict more close figures for housing in these locations

Location 2008end 2009 end

4SRanch 520K(2333sqft) 400-425K

Carmel Valley 600-700k(2200sqft) 525-575K

[/quote]

Just out of curiosity, which houses/complex are you thinking of in Carmel Valley, that are a little over 2000 sf, that are in that range? I was looking in that area a while back, and I have seen very few SFH on the market that are in 2000-2500 sf. E.g. Stone Canyon, Sands, San Raphael, Costa del Sol (too isolated for me). But those were closer, and over 700K, I haven’t seen anything like that for low 600K (or I may have pulled the trigger at the time).

[Scarlett]

I think the housing is going down another 25-30%, due to all the foreclosures in the pipeline, plus the ones to come due to rise in unemployment. North Coastal will see “only” 12-15% down (from the 2008 prices).

Oh, and I, too, believe the rates will go and stay at below 5% all year… and much good will that do…

I am afraid 2009 is going to be much, much worse than 2008 economcal overall. I am VERY afraid.

[Scarlett]

I think the housing is going down another 25-30%, due to all the foreclosures in the pipeline, plus the ones to come due to rise in unemployment. North Coastal will see “only” 12-15% down (from the 2008 prices).

Oh, and I, too, believe the rates will go and stay at below 5% all year… and much good will that do…

I am afraid 2009 is going to be much, much worse than 2008 economcal overall. I am VERY afraid.

[Scarlett]

I think the housing is going down another 25-30%, due to all the foreclosures in the pipeline, plus the ones to come due to rise in unemployment. North Coastal will see “only” 12-15% down (from the 2008 prices).

Oh, and I, too, believe the rates will go and stay at below 5% all year… and much good will that do…

I am afraid 2009 is going to be much, much worse than 2008 economcal overall. I am VERY afraid.

[Scarlett]

I think the housing is going down another 25-30%, due to all the foreclosures in the pipeline, plus the ones to come due to rise in unemployment. North Coastal will see “only” 12-15% down (from the 2008 prices).

Oh, and I, too, believe the rates will go and stay at below 5% all year… and much good will that do…

I am afraid 2009 is going to be much, much worse than 2008 economcal overall. I am VERY afraid.

[Scarlett]

I think the housing is going down another 25-30%, due to all the foreclosures in the pipeline, plus the ones to come due to rise in unemployment. North Coastal will see “only” 12-15% down (from the 2008 prices).

Oh, and I, too, believe the rates will go and stay at below 5% all year… and much good will that do…

I am afraid 2009 is going to be much, much worse than 2008 economcal overall. I am VERY afraid.

[Scarlett]

[quote=Diego Mamani]Rents for SFHs are falling in my area, which is close to the L.A./Ventura county line. Something to keep in mind!! A house the pencils out as a “buy” based on a rent vs. buy calculation today, may end up being a lousy deal if rents drop appreciably in the next couple of years.

I have to admit that the 3B apartment is a clever proxy for areas where the SFH rental market is too thin to ascertain a market value. Of course, whatever the market 3B-apt rents are, you have to inflate them by some factor. The reason for this is that a 4B or 5B detached house with a nice yard in a quiet neighborhood is much more valuable to me, and possibly to you too, than a 3B apartment.[/quote]

Gosh, if the rents drop further, can you imagine what would the drop in the home prices have to be, in order to really have people jumping back into buying?! TG got a good back-of-the-envelope calculation in my case, and it was $450K at 5.5% vs. rent at $2500 – and that is a 20% drop from the current prices…Lower the rent more and you will get 400K or less…OUCH! Unless they really make the 30yr FMR 3% or something really outrageous, it will be ugly, really ugly!
Scarlett
Yep, a 4 BR detached home w/ yard is probably worth at least 10-15% more than a 3BR apt., perhaps even 20%….

[Scarlett]

[quote=Diego Mamani]Rents for SFHs are falling in my area, which is close to the L.A./Ventura county line. Something to keep in mind!! A house the pencils out as a “buy” based on a rent vs. buy calculation today, may end up being a lousy deal if rents drop appreciably in the next couple of years.

I have to admit that the 3B apartment is a clever proxy for areas where the SFH rental market is too thin to ascertain a market value. Of course, whatever the market 3B-apt rents are, you have to inflate them by some factor. The reason for this is that a 4B or 5B detached house with a nice yard in a quiet neighborhood is much more valuable to me, and possibly to you too, than a 3B apartment.[/quote]

Gosh, if the rents drop further, can you imagine what would the drop in the home prices have to be, in order to really have people jumping back into buying?! TG got a good back-of-the-envelope calculation in my case, and it was $450K at 5.5% vs. rent at $2500 – and that is a 20% drop from the current prices…Lower the rent more and you will get 400K or less…OUCH! Unless they really make the 30yr FMR 3% or something really outrageous, it will be ugly, really ugly!
Scarlett
Yep, a 4 BR detached home w/ yard is probably worth at least 10-15% more than a 3BR apt., perhaps even 20%….

[Scarlett]

[quote=Diego Mamani]Rents for SFHs are falling in my area, which is close to the L.A./Ventura county line. Something to keep in mind!! A house the pencils out as a “buy” based on a rent vs. buy calculation today, may end up being a lousy deal if rents drop appreciably in the next couple of years.

I have to admit that the 3B apartment is a clever proxy for areas where the SFH rental market is too thin to ascertain a market value. Of course, whatever the market 3B-apt rents are, you have to inflate them by some factor. The reason for this is that a 4B or 5B detached house with a nice yard in a quiet neighborhood is much more valuable to me, and possibly to you too, than a 3B apartment.[/quote]

Gosh, if the rents drop further, can you imagine what would the drop in the home prices have to be, in order to really have people jumping back into buying?! TG got a good back-of-the-envelope calculation in my case, and it was $450K at 5.5% vs. rent at $2500 – and that is a 20% drop from the current prices…Lower the rent more and you will get 400K or less…OUCH! Unless they really make the 30yr FMR 3% or something really outrageous, it will be ugly, really ugly!
Scarlett
Yep, a 4 BR detached home w/ yard is probably worth at least 10-15% more than a 3BR apt., perhaps even 20%….

[Scarlett]

[quote=Diego Mamani]Rents for SFHs are falling in my area, which is close to the L.A./Ventura county line. Something to keep in mind!! A house the pencils out as a “buy” based on a rent vs. buy calculation today, may end up being a lousy deal if rents drop appreciably in the next couple of years.

I have to admit that the 3B apartment is a clever proxy for areas where the SFH rental market is too thin to ascertain a market value. Of course, whatever the market 3B-apt rents are, you have to inflate them by some factor. The reason for this is that a 4B or 5B detached house with a nice yard in a quiet neighborhood is much more valuable to me, and possibly to you too, than a 3B apartment.[/quote]

Gosh, if the rents drop further, can you imagine what would the drop in the home prices have to be, in order to really have people jumping back into buying?! TG got a good back-of-the-envelope calculation in my case, and it was $450K at 5.5% vs. rent at $2500 – and that is a 20% drop from the current prices…Lower the rent more and you will get 400K or less…OUCH! Unless they really make the 30yr FMR 3% or something really outrageous, it will be ugly, really ugly!
Scarlett
Yep, a 4 BR detached home w/ yard is probably worth at least 10-15% more than a 3BR apt., perhaps even 20%….

[Scarlett]

[quote=Diego Mamani]Rents for SFHs are falling in my area, which is close to the L.A./Ventura county line. Something to keep in mind!! A house the pencils out as a “buy” based on a rent vs. buy calculation today, may end up being a lousy deal if rents drop appreciably in the next couple of years.

I have to admit that the 3B apartment is a clever proxy for areas where the SFH rental market is too thin to ascertain a market value. Of course, whatever the market 3B-apt rents are, you have to inflate them by some factor. The reason for this is that a 4B or 5B detached house with a nice yard in a quiet neighborhood is much more valuable to me, and possibly to you too, than a 3B apartment.[/quote]

Gosh, if the rents drop further, can you imagine what would the drop in the home prices have to be, in order to really have people jumping back into buying?! TG got a good back-of-the-envelope calculation in my case, and it was $450K at 5.5% vs. rent at $2500 – and that is a 20% drop from the current prices…Lower the rent more and you will get 400K or less…OUCH! Unless they really make the 30yr FMR 3% or something really outrageous, it will be ugly, really ugly!
Scarlett
Yep, a 4 BR detached home w/ yard is probably worth at least 10-15% more than a 3BR apt., perhaps even 20%….

[Scarlett]

[quote=temeculaguy]I think the tax benefit is being underplayed here. Rent neutral is a good time to buy because it is a sound fundamental and it also means others can buy because they are successfully renting. I use a formula that doesn’t factor in the downpayment, it is more simple to figure out (…)
When rent equals the P&I of the purchase price, then I rate it as a “buy.” (…)
You can wash out the taxes, insurance, hoa, mello roos, maintenance, etc. with the tax deduction (…)Since you pay 2500 for rent. 450k at 5.5% P&I is $2555, if you were to pay 450k for a house that rents for 2500 (I know you still have to overcome the fair rent since you are moving areas and housing size/style) is where you should buy it. If you were to find a 2500 rental for 450k and you have been successfully paying the 2500 rent you will be paying a fair price as well as setting yourself up for success. (…)others pay $2500 rent and are waiting for the same house to be 300k, it may get there but it will make sense to the other guy before it gets there.
[/quote]

Thanks, TG, that is true, tax benefit is often underplayed, but if you don’t think about it, and do take into consideration all the other fees & taxes, it’s a nice surprise 🙂 I usually wash out only the property taxes with the tax benefit; MeloRoos can be quite substantial in certain newer parts of PQ (e.g. Del Sur). Sometimes the HOAs can be in the couple hundred range. BTW, congrats for your new home!

Hmmm… You know, TG, with your formula, we can sort of predict what the “minimum” bottom will be for the PQ SFH market (for a given rate)! The 4 BR SFH in PQ that rent for $2500 are fairly large & nice, newer, upgraded houses, which are selling now for 550K-600K…Will they ever reach $450K though? That will mean at least 20% more from the current prices. It’s possible, but it’s a pretty steep decline. (Or are the rents going up in PQ? I doubt that. Maybe down.). If the rates get even lower (e.g. 4%), AND the prices go down another 10-15%, and rents stay about where they are (or higher), then the house price treshhold will become close to 500K.

500K is actually in line with the old formula of home price = 3 x household income for me, so I am now more confident than ever that 500K should be my goal for a decent 4 br SFH in PQ.

I actually wanted, long before this, to buy such a house for only 500K; but it was just a nice round figure and maybe a gut feeling; now I feel much better that all the wise advice and smart tips I received from you guys points towards the same ballpark figure.

Thanks a lot, everybody, and Happy Holidays to all of you and your families!

-Scarlett

[Scarlett]

[quote=temeculaguy]I think the tax benefit is being underplayed here. Rent neutral is a good time to buy because it is a sound fundamental and it also means others can buy because they are successfully renting. I use a formula that doesn’t factor in the downpayment, it is more simple to figure out (…)
When rent equals the P&I of the purchase price, then I rate it as a “buy.” (…)
You can wash out the taxes, insurance, hoa, mello roos, maintenance, etc. with the tax deduction (…)Since you pay 2500 for rent. 450k at 5.5% P&I is $2555, if you were to pay 450k for a house that rents for 2500 (I know you still have to overcome the fair rent since you are moving areas and housing size/style) is where you should buy it. If you were to find a 2500 rental for 450k and you have been successfully paying the 2500 rent you will be paying a fair price as well as setting yourself up for success. (…)others pay $2500 rent and are waiting for the same house to be 300k, it may get there but it will make sense to the other guy before it gets there.
[/quote]

Thanks, TG, that is true, tax benefit is often underplayed, but if you don’t think about it, and do take into consideration all the other fees & taxes, it’s a nice surprise 🙂 I usually wash out only the property taxes with the tax benefit; MeloRoos can be quite substantial in certain newer parts of PQ (e.g. Del Sur). Sometimes the HOAs can be in the couple hundred range. BTW, congrats for your new home!

Hmmm… You know, TG, with your formula, we can sort of predict what the “minimum” bottom will be for the PQ SFH market (for a given rate)! The 4 BR SFH in PQ that rent for $2500 are fairly large & nice, newer, upgraded houses, which are selling now for 550K-600K…Will they ever reach $450K though? That will mean at least 20% more from the current prices. It’s possible, but it’s a pretty steep decline. (Or are the rents going up in PQ? I doubt that. Maybe down.). If the rates get even lower (e.g. 4%), AND the prices go down another 10-15%, and rents stay about where they are (or higher), then the house price treshhold will become close to 500K.

500K is actually in line with the old formula of home price = 3 x household income for me, so I am now more confident than ever that 500K should be my goal for a decent 4 br SFH in PQ.

I actually wanted, long before this, to buy such a house for only 500K; but it was just a nice round figure and maybe a gut feeling; now I feel much better that all the wise advice and smart tips I received from you guys points towards the same ballpark figure.

Thanks a lot, everybody, and Happy Holidays to all of you and your families!

-Scarlett

[Scarlett]

[quote=temeculaguy]I think the tax benefit is being underplayed here. Rent neutral is a good time to buy because it is a sound fundamental and it also means others can buy because they are successfully renting. I use a formula that doesn’t factor in the downpayment, it is more simple to figure out (…)
When rent equals the P&I of the purchase price, then I rate it as a “buy.” (…)
You can wash out the taxes, insurance, hoa, mello roos, maintenance, etc. with the tax deduction (…)Since you pay 2500 for rent. 450k at 5.5% P&I is $2555, if you were to pay 450k for a house that rents for 2500 (I know you still have to overcome the fair rent since you are moving areas and housing size/style) is where you should buy it. If you were to find a 2500 rental for 450k and you have been successfully paying the 2500 rent you will be paying a fair price as well as setting yourself up for success. (…)others pay $2500 rent and are waiting for the same house to be 300k, it may get there but it will make sense to the other guy before it gets there.
[/quote]

Thanks, TG, that is true, tax benefit is often underplayed, but if you don’t think about it, and do take into consideration all the other fees & taxes, it’s a nice surprise 🙂 I usually wash out only the property taxes with the tax benefit; MeloRoos can be quite substantial in certain newer parts of PQ (e.g. Del Sur). Sometimes the HOAs can be in the couple hundred range. BTW, congrats for your new home!

Hmmm… You know, TG, with your formula, we can sort of predict what the “minimum” bottom will be for the PQ SFH market (for a given rate)! The 4 BR SFH in PQ that rent for $2500 are fairly large & nice, newer, upgraded houses, which are selling now for 550K-600K…Will they ever reach $450K though? That will mean at least 20% more from the current prices. It’s possible, but it’s a pretty steep decline. (Or are the rents going up in PQ? I doubt that. Maybe down.). If the rates get even lower (e.g. 4%), AND the prices go down another 10-15%, and rents stay about where they are (or higher), then the house price treshhold will become close to 500K.

500K is actually in line with the old formula of home price = 3 x household income for me, so I am now more confident than ever that 500K should be my goal for a decent 4 br SFH in PQ.

I actually wanted, long before this, to buy such a house for only 500K; but it was just a nice round figure and maybe a gut feeling; now I feel much better that all the wise advice and smart tips I received from you guys points towards the same ballpark figure.

Thanks a lot, everybody, and Happy Holidays to all of you and your families!

-Scarlett

[Scarlett]

[quote=temeculaguy]I think the tax benefit is being underplayed here. Rent neutral is a good time to buy because it is a sound fundamental and it also means others can buy because they are successfully renting. I use a formula that doesn’t factor in the downpayment, it is more simple to figure out (…)
When rent equals the P&I of the purchase price, then I rate it as a “buy.” (…)
You can wash out the taxes, insurance, hoa, mello roos, maintenance, etc. with the tax deduction (…)Since you pay 2500 for rent. 450k at 5.5% P&I is $2555, if you were to pay 450k for a house that rents for 2500 (I know you still have to overcome the fair rent since you are moving areas and housing size/style) is where you should buy it. If you were to find a 2500 rental for 450k and you have been successfully paying the 2500 rent you will be paying a fair price as well as setting yourself up for success. (…)others pay $2500 rent and are waiting for the same house to be 300k, it may get there but it will make sense to the other guy before it gets there.
[/quote]

Thanks, TG, that is true, tax benefit is often underplayed, but if you don’t think about it, and do take into consideration all the other fees & taxes, it’s a nice surprise 🙂 I usually wash out only the property taxes with the tax benefit; MeloRoos can be quite substantial in certain newer parts of PQ (e.g. Del Sur). Sometimes the HOAs can be in the couple hundred range. BTW, congrats for your new home!

Hmmm… You know, TG, with your formula, we can sort of predict what the “minimum” bottom will be for the PQ SFH market (for a given rate)! The 4 BR SFH in PQ that rent for $2500 are fairly large & nice, newer, upgraded houses, which are selling now for 550K-600K…Will they ever reach $450K though? That will mean at least 20% more from the current prices. It’s possible, but it’s a pretty steep decline. (Or are the rents going up in PQ? I doubt that. Maybe down.). If the rates get even lower (e.g. 4%), AND the prices go down another 10-15%, and rents stay about where they are (or higher), then the house price treshhold will become close to 500K.

500K is actually in line with the old formula of home price = 3 x household income for me, so I am now more confident than ever that 500K should be my goal for a decent 4 br SFH in PQ.

I actually wanted, long before this, to buy such a house for only 500K; but it was just a nice round figure and maybe a gut feeling; now I feel much better that all the wise advice and smart tips I received from you guys points towards the same ballpark figure.

Thanks a lot, everybody, and Happy Holidays to all of you and your families!

-Scarlett

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